Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Week 6 will kick off with a west coast matchup between the Broncos and Chargers. Philip Rivers is going to have a rough day against Denver’s third-ranked pass defense. Flip offenses and Trevor Siemian is expected to return against a San Diego defense giving up almost 300 pass yards per game this season. Thursday night football can be weird and frustrating with a short week of preparation. So we are all here to help you make those roster moves that could save your week. Here are this weeks recommended starts amongst the trending and borderline players. Feel free to reach out with specific start sit advice!

Quarterbacks:

Brian Hoyer vs. Jac: It’s no secret that Jay Cutler’s career in Chicago is coming to a close. The Bears continue to be vague with their quarterback decisions and why shouldn’t they be. Brian Hoyer is playing well enough to keep the job and now reports from CBS Sports’ Brian La Canfora state that Cutler has “fallen out of favor” with Bears coaches. All rumors and guesses aside, Brian Hoyer looks to start at least one more week. The Jaguars matchup doesn’t lend itself to anything especially positive or negative. Brian Hoyer’s 300+ pass yards and 2 touchdown average per game over that last 3 weeks is a trend to ride in week 6.

Dak Prescott @ GB: Sure, he has yet to throw for over 300 yards, but he also had yet to throw an interception. Dak Prescott has led the Cowboys to a 4-1 start but will face his toughest test in week 6. Ezekiel Elliot is also going to face a tough test against the top rated Green Bay run defense and Dak will be called upon to do more than he has all season. I like that this one could turn into a shootout and that is always a good thing for fantasy owners. I even have a bold prediction that Dak will outscore Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck in week 6.

Wide Receivers

Cole Beasley @ GB: I made a bold claim just above that includes Dak Prescott beating out some pretty big names in fantasy heading into a matchup against Green Bay. That only happens if his supporting cast helps. Cole Beasley has been a reliable target for Dak in Dez Bryant’s absence. Reports, for now, seem to lean towards Dez missing the week 6 match up and if that is the case I think you roll with Cole in a favorable matchup. Again, this game is setting up to be won through the air for Dallas.

Willie Snead vs. CAR: A divisional matchup with the Saints coming off a bye week and Carolina reeling from a disappointing loss to Tampa Bay. One way or the other Willie Snead should be back to 100% after a toe injury. The Saints spread the ball around more than frat boys passing the discount vodka, but Willie was one of Drew Brees’ early favorites. Look for that to be renewed in a game setting up to be big for the Saints.

Running Backs

Frank Gore @ HOU: I don’t know what the coaching staff in Indianapolis is doing, as they seem to completely change schemes every week. That being said, Frank Gore put up a solid performance last week. The only thing holding him back from a better fantasy day was his lack of involvement in the passing game; something he saw a lot more of the previous week in London. The matchup with Houston should force the Colts to utilize Gore more in week 6. I also fully expect him to be moderately involved in the passing game, at least more than we saw in week 5.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry vs DEN: There is plenty to be wary about with Hunter Henry in week 6. The matchup, Thursday Night Football and the return of Antonio Gates are some pretty scary factors for Henry owners heading into week 6. Honestly, I like him for all the same reasons. First of all, the matchup with the Denver defense means Philip Rivers and the Chargers will have to utilize mismatches to move the ball through the air. While Antonio Gates will eat away at some of those targets and yards, he is also the perfect decoy in two tight end sets. I mean which one do you cover!? The kid has put up some big numbers and that wasn’t affected by Gates’ return. He just found more room to run on fewer targets.

As I sit here on a Friday night sipping on a delicious Karl Strauss Aurora hoppyalis, celebrating a winning Chargers wager from the previous night, I find it hard to pick a winner this week. Last week was pretty safe. Everyone pretty much went with either Pittsburgh or New England both who coasted to easy wins in games that were never in doubt. I like both of those teams this week also, especially the Steelers vs the Dolphins. Cincinnati needs to show up big time for this Patriots game if they want to be considered one of the big boys, so this could be an interesting game.

Buffalo would have been the pick if Blaine Gabbert was still the starter. But this move to Kaepernick is intriguing. It seems like he is well liked among teammates and maybe he inspires everyone to play better. If Chip Kelly uses Kaep as a runner, I could see him causing some real problems for teams and remind everyone how happy they were to have him replace Alex Smith years ago.

The Tennessee Titans, however, are this week's pick. It falls in line with the 100% successful strategy of picking against the Cleveland Browns. Now I'm not thrilled with the way the Titans have been playing this season but a battered Browns team will not have what it takes to get their first win of the season on the road, soo I see this as a rare chance to use the Titans confidently. I'd probably stay away from the 7.5 points for the Titans though. Their passing game has not been one that I could comfortably count on to win a game by more than a touchdown.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

176 Pass Attempts

Dak Prescott's interception-free pass attempt streak ended on his 177th attempt on Sunday in Green Bay. Earlier in the game, he broke the previous record of 162, which was held by Tom Brady. The streak was impressive, but the 30-16 victory on the road could be the thing that keeps Tony Romo off the field, once he's back to 100% health. Prescott has 10 TDs total this season, and had only 1 turnover going into Week 6. As long as he and Zeke keep winning, I don't see why you change things.

16-2

Andy Reid's teams are now 16-2 when coming off of a bye week. This is a remarkable stat, and one that leaves me regretful that I didn't change my picks after being reminded of it on Sunday morning. The Chiefs thoroughly dominated the Raiders, particularly in the 2nd half when they gave up zero points. The return of Jamaal Charles was marked by an early touchdown, but then gave way again to Spencer Ware. Ware is averaging 129 yards from scrimmage per game and was given 24 carries in the game where Charles was supposed to have the training wheels taken off. It'll be interesting to see what happens going forward.

200+ Yards

Up until Week 6, only guys named Jones were putting up games over 200 yards. This week, we add two more to that list. Jay Ajayi and Odell Beckham Jr. both went over 200 yards, putting up over 30 points each while helping their teams to big wins. Ajayi is a surprise, but a welcome one - it's nice to see some fantasy life in Miami after all. Look for him to be the hottest waiver pickup this week. Odell, on the other hand, is having fun again. Hopefully things stay fun for him, and the future Mrs. Kicking Net Beckham.

130+ Rush Yards

Ezekiel Elliott has 130+ yards in 4 straight weeks, the first rookie to ever reach that mark. Elliott is living up to the high expectations he had in Dallas, behind a very strong offensive line and fellow rookie Dak Prescott (see above). Elliott leads the league in rushing yards with 703, a wide margin over second place. At 5.13 yards per carry, he's incredibly efficient. He's got the second-most fantasy points in standard leagues - it's nice to see something live up to the hype.

61 Games

Including playoffs, the Colts went 61 straight games between having a 100-yard rusher. On Sunday night in Houston, Frank Gore broke that streak...then lost his 100 yards. Then, the Colts gave up the lead, assuring that the game would go to OT and give Gore a chance to go back over 100 yards. A seven-yard run took care of this, but the Colts punted on that drive and the Texans kicked a field goal to steal the game from the Colts, who had led since the first quarter. This morning, I suspect that Chuck Pagano will find himself on the hot seat.

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck (IND, QB)

Week 3 vs. SD – 24/37, 331yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 14.24pts

Week 4 @JAX – 27/42, 234yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 18.66pts

Week 5 vs. CHI – 28/39, 322yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 22.18pts

After a huge fantasy performance in week 1 against the Detroit Lions where he put up 35.5 points, Luck and the Colts offense in general has been having issues, starting with the offensive line play which has Luck currently on track for 60+ sacks this season. Still, there’s something to be said for playing from behind and Luck is always capable of a good performance. How will he fare this week in Houston – can he put up at least 18 points to stay afloat as a weekly starter?

Kirk Cousins (WAS, QB)

Week 3 @NYG – 21/35, 296yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 19.34pts

Week 4 vs. CLE – 21/27, 183yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 18.32pts

Week 5 @BAL – 29/41, 260yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 13.30pts

Cousins was ranked pretty highly overall by most experts this preseason, but his recent performance has most of us sliding him to the bench in favor of other upside QBs. Week 6 does not bring Cousins any favors, statistically, as he’ll be going up against the Eagles’ #2 ranked passing defense, allowing only 194yds per game on average and only 3 total passing touchdowns so far this season. Can Cousins buck the trend, scoring at least 17 points in a standard scoring league?

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, RB)

Week 3 vs. CHI - 30/140yds, 0 TD, 2rec, 20yds, 0 TD, 16.00pts

Week 4 @SF – 23/138yds, 1 TD, 1rec, 19yds, 0 TD, 21.70pts

Week 5 vs. CIN – 15/134yds, 2 TD, 3rec, 37yds, 0 TD, 29.10pts

Elliott has actually been trending up from his very first NFL game this year. Each week he has performed better than the last. It doesn’t look like he’ll be very involved in the passing game at all (for now, at least), but that doesn’t really impact his fantasy value. The Cowboys are full-speed ahead now, even with a rookie under center. Is it possible for Elliott to keep it going and bring owners at least 22 points on his first trip to Lambeau field to face the Packers?

Duke Johnson Jr. (CLE, RB)

Week 3 @MIA – 10/69yds, 0 TD, 5rec, 12yds, 0 TD, 8.10pts

Week 4 @WAS – 8/45yds, 0 TD, 6rec, 31yds, 0 TD, 5.60pts

Week 5 vs. NE – 4/1yd, 0 TD, 2rec, 21yds, 0 TD, 2.20pts

The Browns are a disaster this year, and although Johnson was drafted as the more valuable running back before the season started, Isaiah Crowell has taken the mantle thus far. Although one could argue that Johnson has some PPR value, he has not shown up as a productive fantasy player so far this year in standard leagues. Will he continue to fall off of benches everywhere? Will Johnson score less than 5.3 points this week against the Titans?

Wide Receivers

Cameron Meredith (CHI, WR)

Week 3 @DAL – 2/3, 24yds, 0 TD, 0.40pts

Week 4 vs. DET – 4/5, 28yds, 0 TD, 2.80pts

Week 5 @IND – 9/12, 130yds, 1 TD, 17.60pts

Welcome to the NFL, Cameron. Sorry you’re on the Bears! Regardless of his situation, though, it looks like Hoyer and Meredith are enjoying some great chemistry and – due to Cutler’s fall from grace and White’s serious injury – both will probably be starting for the foreseeable future. The real question here is if Meredith can keep up the production on a high level in the weeks to come. Let’s put the number at 8 points or more to continue this trend. Yay, or nay?

Victor Cruz (NYG, WR)

Week 3 vs. WAS – 3/3, 70yds, 0TD, 7.00pts

Week 4 @MIN – 5/9, 50yds, 5.00pts

Week 5 @GB – 0/2, 0yds, 0.00pts

Over the last 4 games, Cruz has had at least 50 yards or a touchdown. At the beginning of the season things looked super promising for a resurgence to Cruz’s career and for the Giants’ offense in general – but things aren’t looking quite so bright now. Will the Giants regain control of their offensive play and utilize Cruz in week 6 in Baltimore? Will Cruz score less than 4 points, continuing the downward trend?

Tight Ends

Martellus Bennett (NE, TE)

Week 3 vs. HOU – 2/3, 10yds, 0 TD, 1.60pts

Week 4 vs. BUF – 5/6, 109yds, 0 TD, 10.90pts

Week 5 @CLE – 6/8, 67yds, 3 TD, 24.70pts

Bennett’s first outing with Tom Brady as quarterback was fruitful, to say the least. Even though Gronkowski was back in action and looking healthier than he has so far this season, Bennett was the primary red zone target for most of the game, scoring 3 touchdowns against the hapless Cleveland Browns. In order to keep up this trend, Bennett will need to put up 12 or more points in a standard scoring league. Can he pull it off?