Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Betting on sports can be a fun way to make watching sporting events even more exciting than they already are! When done correctly, it can also be a way to generate some extra pocket change. Occasionally I will place wagers on other sports, but my bread and butter has always been on the NFL. There are a couple of things I like to keep in mind when I'm wagering. First and most important is to stay within your means, it's no fun when you are gambling with money you need. Next don't chase a loss: if you make a losing wager it is tempting to just bet on the next game and catch up. Whenever this comes up for me it usually leads to making a bad play on a game I don't feel strongly about. And the last thing I like to do is try to avoid making parlay bets. Parlays are tempting because you can win a lot by wagering a little and there is a reason for that! In the coming weeks I will use this forum to share some plays I am making and offer some insight on the picks I make.

First, here is a little recap on plays I've made so far this season. I have made 4 total wagers so far and have hit on 3 out of the 4. The first play I made was on the Chargers +1 at Buffalo in week 3. The public's opinion on the Bills was inflated after their victories over the Bears and Dolphins so I jumped on San Diego. Generally speaking whenever a home team is favored by less than 3 points it means they really aren't favored. Next I won betting on the Lions -1 against the Jets. That one was pretty simple for me, the Jets can not score enough to beat the Lions. Then I made an error: I tried to run up my roll too quickly and decided to bet the Saints -3 in Dallas on Sunday Night Football (as it was the only game left to bet on the day). Generally I will try to avoid betting on a road team in a prime time game when there isn't a wide disparity in talent. Finally most recently I won on the Packers -10 Thursday night over the Vikings. That line opened at Packers -9, and when Christian Ponder was announced as the Vikings starter I knew I would have to bet the Packers at home and was willing to take on the extra point.

This week there are three games on my radar for placing a wager. I like the Bears to bounce back getting 3 points vs. the Panthers. I think they will win outright with the Panthers down to their 3rd running back. Matt Forte should be able to have a good day against the Panthers who haven't stopped the run yet this season. Next I've been told by a trustworthy source that the Eagles have an 82% chance to cover 6 points against the Rams at home. Currently the line is set at -7 so if I place a wager on this game I probably will buy one point. Lastly I think the Patriots getting 2 points at home on Monday night will be a good bet. The Bengals are good this year, but you can never count out the Pats. I think they will have a strong performance in prime time and silence some doubters.

Week 5 marks our approach into the 2nd quarter of the 2015 NFL season. At this point we have learned who a lot of players and teams are and who they will be going forward. There are still a lot of surprises, but those general come with caveats. For example, Andre Johnson had a great game on Thursday night but he was playing with Matt Hasselbeck instead of Andrew Luck and against a Houston defense which has proved more ineffective than initially projected. So do your research, and make the best decisions that you can each week! Here are our Week 5 Rankings, and feel free to use the start/sit tool here on the site as well.

Quarterbacks

START Marcus Mariota (TEN) vs. BUF – Mariota has certainly played well so far his rookie year, but there is always room for improvement. Week 3 against the Colts was punishing for him, giving up his first 2 interceptions of the season, but he still looked sharp for the majority of that game and showed good poise under pressure. Although the Bills have a great defense, they have allowed a surprising 19.5 points per game to opposing fantasy quarterbacks (3rd highest in the NFL) and so we're expecting Mariota to have a good outing this week.

SIT Tyrod Taylor (BUF) vs. TEN – Taylor was not impressive against the Giants last week, and he'll be without a good running game (both LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams will not be playing this week, leaving Anthony Dixon and new addition Dan Herron to start) as well as #1 WR Sammy Watkins. Without Watkins to distract the defense and an ability to establish the run, Taylor will be left with Charles Clay and Percy Harvin as his main targets. Not enough, Taylor. Best of luck!

Running Backs

START LeGarrette Blount (NE) vs. DAL– It's always particularly scary, attempting to predict which New England running back will have a productive day on the football field. In week 3, Blount played the role of clock killer and plowed his way to 3 TDs. Dion Lewis has recently been installed as the starter for the Patriots, but look for Blount to come out to play whenever the Pats have a hefty lead. That's what I'm expecting in this match-up against Dallas.

START Darren Sproles (PHI) vs. NO – A little birdie told me that the Eagles were still having trouble getting their offense going. Sproles is getting some good targets but has had a few issues with drops over the past few weeks. In a match-up against the Saints pretty soft defense, Sproles should have an easier time turning those targets into fantasy points. I'm predicting at least 80 all-purpose yards and a TD this week.

SIT Joseph Randle (DAL) vs. NE – Still the head of the laughable Dallas Cowboys RBBC, lucked into a few touchdowns in week 3 but should have a much harder time gaining ground against a staunch Patriots defense. Averaging only 14.75 carries per game (hardly any of those in the 2nd half of games), two things have become obvious: the Cowboys will be playing from behind, and Randle will not have a part in that.

SIT Ameer Abdullah (NE) vs. DAL – Abdullah is not the problem here - it's the Lions' offensive line and play-calling woes. He'll do better going forward and should keep the starting job in Detroit, but this week's romp against the Cardinals will not be padding his stats.

Wide Receivers

START Martavis Bryant (PIT) vs. SD – Bryant was a monster last year, and all signs point to him bringing a lot of that production to 2015. Losing Roethlisberger was a blow to his fantasy value, but fortunately Vick can still chuck the ball downfield and the existing double threat of Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown on offense will keep opposing defenses from focusing on Bryant. He should still get his. Editor's Note: Unfortunately, it looks like Bryant will be out for another week at least, due to a knee tweak.

START Travis Benjamin (CLE) vs BAL -  Ok, I didn't want to like Benjamin when he started putting up stats but now I have no choice but to recognize his talent within that offense. Chemistry is building with Josh McCown, and the Raven's secondary has been taking hits from all across the league this year. I'd consider Benjamin to be an every week WR3 or Flex play going forward. Not bad for someone who went undrafted in all but the deepest of leagues.

SIT Brandin Cooks (NO) vs PHI – Cooks has yet to score a touchdown, and Brees's current infatuation with Willie Snead looks to continue into week 5. Although Cooks could easily go back to being a borderline WR1 play, right now he's barely a start. I'm going to go ahead and leave him off of lineups where I can insert someone with more upside, like Leonard Hankerson or Allen Hurns, for example.

Tight Ends

START Owen Daniels (DEN) vs. OAK - Daniels looks like he should be a sit based on his stats, but he climbs in the rankings due to how miserable the Oakland Raiders are at defending against tight ends. Besides that, Daniels had a touchdown last week as well as in week 3 which proves that Manning is targeting him in the red zone. The guy does not get yardage, but he will likely be targeted 5+ times in week 5 against the Raiders. If there was ever a time to play Owen Daniels, that time is now!

SIT Jared Cook (STL) vs. GB - Cook, on the other hand, has yet to record a touchdown and his stats have decreased throughout the season so far. As the Rams rediscover t heir offense through Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin, it's possible that Cook will have some opportunities to score but right now they look few and far between.

Grab’em while they’re hot! Week 5 is getting ready to start and the waiver wire continues to bear fruit. Bye weeks are in full swing this weekend too with Carolina, Miami, Minnesota and the New York Jets all off. My recommendation is to dig deep this week. The season is really starting to take shape and waiver wire gold tends to get slim in the middle of the season.

Quarterbacks

Jay Cutler, CHI – The Bears are not staging a comeback or anything this year but fantasy value can still be found on losing teams. Jay Cutler came back last week and had his best game of the season despite his bum hamstring. The Andrew Luck and Drew Brees injuries should be a wake-up call to all owners. Stashing a good streaming QB on your bench is valuable and Jay Cutler has yet to really hit his full stride this season. Playmaker Alshon Jeffery should be returning soon too giving him another dynamic player to target. He is only owned in 25% of leagues.

Brian Hoyer, HOU – Houston plays on Thursday and that might be the only reason Brian Hoyer doesn’t replace Ryan Mallett in week 5. Mallett is too inexperienced and immature to handle his poor play and benching properly so I do expect Hoyer to win back the starting position soon. Houston isn’t setting any offensive records but Hoyer does have DeAndre Hopkins to target. Plus, we haven’t really seen the full impact of Arian Foster returning. Foster should open up the field a bit more and Hopkins continues to play very well despite his QB handicap. Hoyer is wide open and only owned in 1% of leagues. He must have a lot of family playing fantasy football.

Running Backs

Duke Johnson Jr., CLE – We knew Duke Johnson Jr. was going to find his way onto the field this season. Though he remains the backup - for now - the Browns have found a way to use him effectively. In his last 2 games Johnson has 15 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. He’ll continue to get some touches too, but his impact in the passing game is obviously a big plus for a guy only owned in 31% of leagues.

Charles Sims, TB – The RBBC approach is starting to take on a bit of a new look this season. Players like Lance Dunbar, Duke Johnson Jr. and now Charles Sims are finding success through the air when they sub in. Sims has 10 receptions for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns. His value is further increased based on the fact that he is the third down back for Doug Martin. I will point out too that I like him in DFS lineups, especially as a FLEX. He is only owned 11% of leagues.

Wide Receiver

Allen Hurns, JAX – The waiver wire gold is few and far between this late into the season, but I believe Allen Hurns has just that type of value as a WR3. He has made the most of his opportunities early, racking up 13 catches for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. Hurns narrowly missed making my waiver picks last week and quite honestly I am disappointed in myself. He is still only owned in 19% of leagues. That won’t last long after putting up two consecutive weeks of WR3 numbers.

Willie Snead, NO – A new name that should make his way onto everyone’s radar is Willie Snead. He has overtaken Brandon Coleman as the 3^rd wide out in New Orleans. The amount of playtime he is seeing gives him good enough upside to make my picks this week. He also plays in the Saints pass happy offensive system. For now he is a streaming option with high upside. I predict his ceiling will continue to rise as the season moves on. He is only owned in 3% of leagues.

Leonard Hankerson, ATL – Atlanta is rejuvenated under new Head Coach Dan Quinn; especially on the offensive side of the ball. Julio Jones was predicted to dominate, and he has, but Roddy White was a question heading into this season because of his age. Enter Leonard Hankerson to offer the Falcons another option in the passing game. Through the first 4 weeks he has been boom or bust, but is seeing a good number of targets for a guy only owned in 19% of leagues. Whether or not he gains more consistency is still up in the air, but don’t pass up on the number 2 wideout in a top 5 passing yards per game offense.

Tight Ends

Gary Barnidge, CLE – After the two weeks the 30 year old Gary Barnidge has had I would be an idiot not to recommend picking him up. He has 12 catches in his last two games for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns. The tight end position continues to be a popular streaming position as the talent pool has large gaps between tiers. Injuries are another issue with the TE position; see Jordan Reed (SHOCKER). Barnidge is a bright spot on an otherwise dismal Browns team. His is only taken in 9% of leagues.

Antonio Gates, SD – Injuries are starting to mount up for the San Diego offense with Stevie Johnson exiting in week 4 and Malcom Floyd going through concussion protocol. That is why it surprises me that Antonio Gates is still only owned in 54% of fantasy leagues right now. Gates is finally back after serving his 4 game suspension and will no doubt make an immediate impact. Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates have long been a great fantasy marriage. The injuries only boost his ceiling in his week 5 return.

Kickers

Cairo Santos, KC – Kansas City’s losing streak continued in week 4 but Cairo Santos had a hell of a game. Most kickers are lucky to see half the number of field goals Santos made last week. His 7 field goals were good for 27 fantasy points. Streaming kickers is popular because, well, they’re kickers. Kansas City plays Chicago next week and it’s a favorable matchup for Jamaal Charles. That said, Alex Smith handicaps drives and an improved Bears defense should be good enough to keep the Chiefs out of the end zone.

Robbie Gould, CHI – The only game in which Robbie Gould has yet to put up favorable kicker numbers is the Seattle game where Chicago was shut out. He has 41 points on the season despite that, and is one of the most accurate kickers in the NFL. Jay Cutler is back and Matt Forte hasn’t been traded yet so I like the Bears ability to move the ball against Kansas City next week. Gould is owned in 18% of leagues which is just ridiculous considering his history and the numbers he has put up this season.

Defense/Special Teams

New York Giants – If you are heading into week 5 and find yourself in need of a defense then the New York Giants offer a good matchup option. There are two huge advantages to their week 5 matchup. One, San Francisco is traveling across the country. Two, and most important, San Francisco is the worst offense in the league led by an increasing disappointing Colin Kaepernick and coached by an increasingly greasy Jim Tomsula. Coach and Quarterback aside, you can’t ignore the numbers. The Giants have yet to put up big numbers as a D/ST this season, but they are 3 of 4 on the season in maintaining double digit fantasy points.

Injury Updates:

Andrew Luck, QB, IND - partial shoulder separation may miss another game on a short week (Thursday vs. HOU)

LeSean McCoy, RB, BUF – hamstring injury aggravatated, 3-4 more weeks possible. Backup Karlos Williams suffered a concussion, Anthony Dixon may split carries with newly signed ex-Colts RB Dan Herron if Williams can’t go.

Lance Dunbar, RB, DAL – knee injury, out for season. This solidifies Darren McFadden as the Cowboys’ 3^rd down back and means that newcomer Christine Michael will start getting carries, but Joseph Randle looks to remain the lead back at this time.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – hamstring.. rumors of a grade 1 or 2 tear but nothing has been officially announced. Fred Jackson has a high-ankle sprain and will likely be gone for a few weeks. In the meantime Thomas Rawls will monopolize carries if Lynch can’t get back on the field – Seattle is not carrying any other RBs.

Nate Washington & Cecil Shorts, WR, HOU – Both have been somewhat productive this season so far across from DeAndre Hopkins, though the Houston offense is very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. We’ll likely see rookie Jaelen Strong take the field at this point but he is only a consideration in deep leagues due to the Texans’ QB woes.

Stevie Johnson, WR, SD – hamstring injury, has had the same thing in the past – may sideline him for a game or more so keep an eye out!

Jordan Reed, TE, WAS – Reed was playing well but it was only a matter of time before an injury caught up with him. Not only did he suffer a concussion in the game against the Eagles, but he also sprained his knee and his ankle. Yikes.

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast: 10/6/15, Week 5 Preview)

Player Trends:

Blake Bortles, QB, JAC – After a disappointing week 1 against the Panthers stout defense (putting up 22/40 for 183 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT), Bortles has thrown 5 TDs with only 1 INT over the last 3 games (21.62, 17.28 and 19.02 points per game, respectively). He’s currently the #10 QB in overall fantasy points and we’re now entering into the bye weeks. Only 18% owned in Yahoo leagues currently, Bortles will likely be snatched off many a waiver wire to be played in weeks 5 and 6 against Tampa Bay and Houston (allowing 15.5 and 18.5 points per game, respectively. Plus, he gets Julius Thomas back shortly. Last year, Bortles finished as the 24^th highest scoring QB in standard leagues – can he keep up his current production to stay within the top 15 this year? Will Bortles finally lead Jacksonville to at least 6 wins in a season for the first time since 2010?

Sam Bradford, QB, PHI – Bradford hadn’t played in an NFL regular season game since 2013, but hopes were high this year for a landmark season out of the Eagles and a lot of that comes from the QB. So far this year he is only the 19^th highest scoring QB in standard leagues even though some experts had him as high as 7^th to start the season. Bradford has been trending down since week 1, having scored 15.44, 9.86 and then 8.52 fantasy points over the first 3 weeks, but his performance in week 4 against the Redskins was a bright spot, registering 270 yards and 3 TDs with no interceptions. Facing a hapless Saints’ passing defense giving up the 2^nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far in 2015, is this the beginning of a resurgence for the Eagles’ offense and Bradford’s fantasy hopes in general? He is owned in 63% of Yahoo leagues, and so likely not available, but looks to be a great spot start (at the very least) in weeks 5 and 6 against the Saints and the Giants.

Todd Gurley, RB, STL – Gurley didn’t play in an NFL game until week 3 against the Steelers, but he was really only getting his feet wet in that game, mixing in for a few touches only. In Week 4, Gurley broke out in a big way with 19 rushes for 146 yards and 2 catches for 15 yards. He didn’t hit pay dirt, but it’s looking like Gurley could definitely be a workhorse for this offense and a weekly mention among the top RBs. The Cardinals have a fairly stingy rushing defense, so this was a good test for Gurley. As the season progresses, the Rams play quite a few soft rushing defenses including Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago and Green Bay. Will Gurley continue to run all over them as was foretold by so many after the draft this year? Could he end up being a top 10 RB when the dust clears?

C.J. Anderson, RB, DEN – Anderson has only scored 17.4 points total so far this season, which basically makes him a big, red, neon sign flashing the words, ‘DISAPPOINTMENT’. Some of this can be attributed to the injury issues that Anderson had in the first few weeks, but the fact that the Broncos have looked more and more towards Ronnie Hillman in clutch game situations tells the story. No TDs on the year and no games with more than 50 rushing yards are certainly leading fantasy team managers that have played Anderson each week to frustration. Does C.J. get his groove back? Will Ronnie Hillman take the reins of the Broncos’ rushing offense, or will they just continue with the current RBBC that is shaping up in Denver?

Allen Hurns, WR, JAC – Hurns is currently sitting as the 21^st highest WR this year with a total of 41.40 fantasy points in standard leagues. He started off slow (so did Bortles), but has since scored 6.8, 13 and 17.6 fantasy points in his last 3 games, respectively. Against the Colts this past weekend, Hurns had 15 targets and brought down 11 receptions for 116 yards and 1 TD. He goes on to play the Bucs this week who have given up the 10^th most fantasy points to WRs. Is there enough room for several receivers on the Jacksonville offense? Maybe. Hurns is trending up but he does have to face the Bills and the Jets in his next two matchups. Regardless, he is an excellent spot start this coming week with 4 teams on bye. He is only 21% owned. *included in week 5 waiver picks

Marvin Jones, WR, CIN – There has been a lot of talk about Jones over the past few years. The Bengals have been clicking on offense this season, but there are a lot of mouths to feed: A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Mohamed Sanu are also soaking up targets, not to mention Giovani Bernard. We thought that Marvin Jones was settling in as the WR2 this year, but it looks like Eifert has usurped that role, leaving Jones as a boom or bust play on a weekly basis. His next game is against Seattle, who boasts a top passing defense, so it’s likely that Jones will not be a play in week 5 except in desperation. What do you do with a guy like Marvin Jones? Drop him? Keep him on your bench for a good matchup and roll the dice? His last 4 games have resulted in scores of 1.9, 11.1, 15.4 and 1, respectively.

Gary Barnidge, TE, CLE – Who is this guy? Seriously, I had barely heard the name ‘Barnidge’ until this week 2, when he exploded onto the scene with 6 receptions for 105 yards and 1 TD. His past 4 games have resulted in scores of 3.8, 1.7, 16.5 and 13.5 and he has scored TDs in the last two while averaging 8 targets per game. Will this 30-year-old tight end continue to act as a security blanket for Josh McCown and a redzone threat? Week 5’s matchup has him going against the Ravens who have somehow only allowed 8 receptions for 31 yards to all tight ends that they have played. Would it be crazy to play Barnidge against the Ravens knowing this information? *included in week 5 waiver picks