Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

The NFL season is in full swing. There have already been two games in London, bye weeks are kicking in, and Thursday Night Football is as bad as we all make fun of it for being. Meanwhile, House of the Dragon is nearing its peak of the season. We’ve had weddings, funerals, dragons, and the Greens fighting the Blacks. In that spirit, here are some stats from Week 5 inspired by my favorite show on TV right now.

Fire

125 Points in the Last Two Weeks

Like a couple of random soldiers in the Stepstones, Austin Ekeler and Josh Jacobs are on fire. The two running backs have combined for 125.6 points over the last two weeks. Jacobs has 368 yards from scrimmage over that span, giving him 619 on the season, good for third in the league – ahead of all wide receivers. It took Jacobs until week 13 to reach that mark last year. This season, the Raiders are not particularly dominant on offense – just 8^th overall in points and 10th or lower in most offensive categories. Credit for these performances lies with Jacobs, who is averaging a career-high 5.4 Y/A and has caught 17 of his 18 targets. Ekeler has 5 touchdowns in the last 2 games after not finding the end zone in the first 3 games. He started the season with 32.4 points over weeks 1 through 3, then averaged 32.9 points per game in the next two. He finds himself as the RB2 on the season now. In week 5 @ Cleveland, Ekeler posted his career high in rushing yards, 173, blowing away his previous career high of 117. It’s only his third time posting 100+ rushing yards in a game. Ekeler has gotten going, and so have the Chargers, putting up 30 or more in the last 2 games. Ekeler is paying off his very high overall ADP3 going into the season.

Ice

5:7 TD to INT Ratio

After winning the Super Bowl last year, Matthew Stafford just can’t find fantasy success this season. He’s throwing INTs at a rate he hasn’t seen since his rookie year (though it can be noted that he led the league in INTs last year). This season he leads the league in sacks and has his worst QB rating since 2012. The Rams are now the most imbalanced offense in the league, passing on 66.7% of their plays. As we learned last week, this is not a recipe for success. Stafford is just the QB23 on the season, after being drafted as the QB12 coming off a season where he averaged 20.4 points per game. Stafford has only one game over 12 points this season and is coming in behind players like Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota, who are not even sniffing the chance at being rostered in single QB leagues. Stafford and the Rams are cold as ice, and as long as they keep putting the 29th-ranked offense out on the field, you can go ahead and just send him to the wall.

Green

50 Yards Per Reception

Double green bonus points here. Not only is Breece Hall green – as in, he’s a rookie. He also plays for Gang Green. Hall had his breakout game this week, making his dramatic entrance in green, if you will. He scored 26.7 fantasy points as the Jets demolished the Dolphins, 40-17. Hall had 197 yards from scrimmage, featuring 2 catches for 100 yards. Hall’s 79-yard reception (an early leader for the longest non-scoring play of the season) to close out the first quarter kept him from an even bigger game. Being tackled at the 1 is never fun, and then Michael Carter came in to vulture his touchdown. Hall is now the RB10 on the season and is trending up over the last 3 games – something we love to see here. Another green player on Gang Green – Tyler Conklin, came up totally empty on Sunday, though I suspect that is more of a bump in the road, rather than an omen of things to come.

Black

3 Games with 2+ Passing TDs in a Row

Fitting (or forcing) our Game of Thrones/House of the Dragon theme, we’ll have a vet represent the black side. Geno Smith is easily playing the best football of his career, and it only took him 8 seasons to get there. Smith is like Daemon, just leaning against the wall smirking, biding his time. Daring someone to start him again. Smith has never had consecutive games with 2+ passing TDs until this year. Over the last 3 games, Smith has 2, 2, and 3 passing scores on his way to 9 on the season. His previous career high is 12, and that’s for a full 16-game season. Smith is leading the league in completion percentage, and perhaps even more unexpectedly, QB rating. He’s the QB7 on the season, and is still only rostered in 51% of Fleaflicker leagues. What’s going on guys? He’s doing better than Brady, Herbert, Rodgers, Stafford, and Wentz, though only barely on that last one. OK, I’ll grant you some things are just statistical oddities. Regardless, Geno Smith is playing very well, and the Seahawks would probably have a more impressive record if it wasn’t for them giving up the 2^nd most points in the league. This journeyman, as they say, has found the fountain of youth in the pacific northwest.

The Stink Eye

25 Yards, 4 Touchdowns

Travis Kelce earns a major stink eye this week. Like Aemond Targaryen, he just hung back all night and made the most of his modest contributions. Kelce’s 7 catches went for just an average of just over 3.5 yards each. Discarding one game where he had one reception, this game featured both his lowest yards per catch of his career, and the most touchdowns of his career. Four touchdowns double his previous career high of two. Kelce is somehow turning up the fantasy juice with the exit of Tyreek Hill. He’s leading the league in receiving TDs, he’s near his career high in receptions per game, and does have a career-high catch rate of 78.6%. As the TE1 on the season, he’s absolutely dominating the field. He’s 20 points ahead of Mark Andrews at TE2, and nearly 40 points ahead of Taysom Hill, even with his huge breakout in Week 5.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was one of those weeks that reminds you just how tough this game can be to predict. It wasn’t exactly a banner week here at the Rookie Report, as a lengthy list of players I liked to have solid games – Bryce Young, Jahmyr Gibbs, Roschon Johnson, Zach Charbonnet, JSN, Tank Dell, Jordan Addison, and Luke Musgrave – were huge disappointments. I also didn’t feel great about CJ Stroud or Michael Wilson in week 4, and both turned in top-10 finishes.

Some weeks are going to be like that. Making the right decisions for your lineup isn’t about being perfect every week, and you’ll drive yourself nuts if that’s your goal. All you can do is use the information available to try and give yourself the best chance to win. You can’t kick yourself for not making an irrational decision like starting Michael Wilson over Calvin Ridley, or Jaylen Warren over Jahmyr Gibbs, even though those moves would’ve resulted in more points in your lineup.

I’ll continue to let talent, usage and matchups be my guide in breaking down the outlook for the rookie class each week and following that is going to put you in better position to win more weeks than not.

This week we hit the first of the NFL’s bye weeks, so you may be searching for fill-ins for every week starters like Justin Herbert or Kenneth Walker III, and you might be looking at a rookie as an option to step in and fill the void, so let’s talk about what to expect from the rookies this weekend.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 5:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Richardson returned last Sunday after missing week 3 with a concussion, and he quickly reminded us that he has the potential to break fantasy this season, finishing as the QB2 for the week behind only Josh Allen. Richardson has played just two full games so far, and he logged 10 rushing attempts, multiple total TDs, and over 20 fantasy points in both. He also tallied 17.7 points in just over a quarter against Houston before suffering his concussion. The Titans are just a middling QB defense, allowing the 14^th-fewest QB points per game, but they rank 25^th in Aaron Schatz’s pass defense DVOA. You should be treating Richardson as a top-5 fantasy QB this week.

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 5: vs. Hou.): Robinson had a field day in London, getting back into the RB1 column with his 3^rd top-12 PPR finish in 4 games. He’s now seen at least 5 targets in all 4 games and ranks 3^rd among all running backs in routes run. This week he faces off with a Texans defense that allows the 7^th-most running back points per game and ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans also rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. All systems are go for Bijan this week. He’s a slam dunk top-10 RB option.

RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): Achane followed up his 50-point explosion in week 3 with another dynamite performance in week 4, tallying 27 PPR points and finishing the week as the RB5. He was one of the few bright spots for Miami’s offense in a 28-point drubbing at the hands of the Bills. Achane totaled 120 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs on just 11 touches, but what’s more exciting is that he’s seemingly moved ahead of Raheem Mostert on the depth chart. Achane was on the field for 66% of the offensive snaps and in a route on 68% of the team’s passing dropbacks. He also handled the only carries inside the 5-yard line. He’s now the 1A back in this offense, and this week they face a Giants defense that has allowed the 10^th-most RB points per game and ranks 22^nd in run defense DVOA. There’s no reason to sit him in what should be an easier matchup this week. Achane is a top-10 RB play this week.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): The Rams might get Cooper Kupp back this week, but you can’t sit Nacua with the way he’s been playing. Puka has been playing primarily on the perimeter, and Kupp works mostly from the slot, so there’s room in this offense for both to thrive. Nacua has been rewriting the rookie record books through 4 weeks, averaging nearly 10 catches for 125 yards on 13 targets per game, and the Eagles have allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game. Kupp’s return could put a dent into Puka’s target share, but that likely means he’s more of a WR2 than a surefire WR1 for fantasy lineups. There’s still a chance that Kupp doesn’t return this week as well. Don’t be afraid to start Nacua this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 5: @Atl.): With Justin Herbert and Geno Smith on byes this week, I think it pushes Stroud into the top-12 QBs for the week. He’s been flat out dealing over the last 3 weeks, averaging 323 yards, 2 TDs, and zero INTs per game, and he faces an Atlanta defense that ranks 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Atlanta has also struggled to defend the run, so QBs haven’t piled up a ton of volume against them. No passer has thrown for 250+ yards against Atlanta yet this season, but the Texans are a pass-first team and Stroud should have a great chance to be the first. He’s a back end QB1 option this week.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): Gibbs has continued to look impressive with his touches, but also continued to disappoint fantasy managers over the last month. David Montgomery returned from injury in week 4 and went right back to a 70% snap share and dominating the goal line carries. Montgomery scored 3 touchdowns on Thursday night and is up to 5 scores in 3 games. Gibbs is yet to score his first NFL touchdown. For the time being, we need to readjust our expectations for Gibbs and treat him like a weekly RB3 option rather than the potential RB1 we drafted him to be. With that said, this week Gibbs gets a juicy matchup and should probably be in lineups if you can make room for him. Carolina has allowed the 4^th most RB points per game so far, and they rank dead last in run defense DVOA. Detroit has one of the highest implied point totals of the week at 27 points, so this is an offense to target. Don’t count on a full complement of snaps, but Gibbs should see a dozen or so touches and find his way to an RB2 finish.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): This is contingent on Javonte Williams not playing this week, but if the hip injury Williams sustained against the Bears keeps him out on Sunday, I like McLaughlin as a back end RB2 option in a reasonable matchup with the Jets. Samaje Perine would likely lead the Broncos in snaps if Williams sits (Perine out-snapped McLaughlin 22-16 in week 4), but the Broncos made a point last week to get the ball into McLaughlin’s hands. McLaughlin touched the ball on 10 of his 16 snaps and he caught a receiving TD before Williams had even been hurt, and he’s been significantly more explosive than Perine so far this season. McLaughlin has averaged nearly 3 yards per touch and 4.5 yards per rush more than Perine over the last 3 weeks. The Jets have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game and are one of just 8 teams allowing 6 or more running back receptions per game. There’s room here for another strong performance from the rookie back. Just know that there is some built-in risk since McLaughlin’s production is more a result of efficiency than volume.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 5: vs. KC): Addison put up a frustrating goose egg last week on just 1 target in a game where the Vikings threw the ball just 19 times. The upside case for Addison is that this offense passes at such a high volume that even as Minnesota’s WR3 he’s going to put up useful fantasy stat lines. In weeks where they don’t throw a lot, floor weeks like this are a possibility. Luckily for Addison, the Vikings should throw plenty as 5-point underdogs against the defending champs on Sunday. Look for a bounce back game from the rookie WR against a KC pass defense that struggled to slow down Zach Wilson last Sunday night. I’d treat Addison as a WR3 this week.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Through his first 4 games, Flowers has put up consistent fantasy performances despite some yo-yoing of his target totals. In weeks 1 and 3, Flowers earned 10 targets in each game, but in weeks 2 and 4 he earned just 9 targets total. The Ravens have at least done us the favor of getting him those targets further downfield in the games where the targets haven’t been as plentiful. He’s had an aDOT below 4 yards in both games with 10 targets, and an aDOT above 12 yards in both games with fewer targets, and it’s resulted in Flowers reaching 50 scrimmage yards and 8+ PPR points in all 4 games. There’s a little more risk this week in firing up Flowers with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham both likely to return from injury for week 5, but Zay is still the team’s WR1 and faces a promising matchup. The Steelers have allowed the 3^rd-most points per game to opposing wide receivers, and Flowers is still a great upside WR3/4 option this week.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): The return of Christian Watson limited Reed to his lowest target share of the season, but he’s still earned 5+ targets in all 4 games and had an aDOT of 14+ yards in 3 of them. Watson’s snap share may increase further in his second game back, but I still like Reed’s chances of posting a strong fantasy day this week. The Raiders rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 5^th-fewest PPR points to receivers lined up on the perimeter. Reed functions as the Packers’ primary slot receiver, aligning in the slot for 73% of his snaps. The Raiders allow the 12^th-most PPR points to receivers lined up in the slot. It’s still going to be a bit of a weekly guessing game to figure out which Packer WRs to trust in fantasy, but the matchup suggests that Reed should be in line for a strong outing on Monday. I like him as a WR3/4 option this week and would rank him just ahead of Tank Dell for week 5.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): LaPorta finished outside the top-12 PPR tight ends for the first time in week 4, but he still earned 5 targets for the 4^th consecutive game and topped 50 yards for the third game in a row. His role has been very stable, and while the Panthers have allowed just the 8^th-fewest TE points per game, they’ve struggled to contain the position when it’s actually targeted. Carolina ranks in the bottom-5 in the league with 9 yards per target allowed to opposing tight ends. LaPorta is a fringe TE1 this week, even in a matchup that looks tough at first glance.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 5: @Det.): I was excited about Bryce’s chances at a big game last week against a porous Viking defense, and while he did play his most efficient game of the season, he finished with just 7 fantasy points and certainly didn’t help you win your matchups if you started him. The increase in efficiency was a good sign. Bryce set season-highs in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating, but he took too many drive killing sacks and gave away a TD on a fumble that proved to be the difference in the game. Young isn’t throwing for enough yards or TDs to be trustworthy as a QB2 in lineups right now, and his opponent this week is much tougher than the Vikings. Detroit ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA and should be able to keep Bryce mostly in check. I’d view him as a dicey QB2 option this week.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 5: @Was.): Roschon’s playing time went in the wrong direction in week 4 as the Bears played mostly from in front against Denver. He was out-snapped by Khalil Herbert 55 to 15. It was really the first chance we’ve had to see the Bears play with a lead, so for now I would assume this is what the RB usage will look like when that happens. Chicago is a 5.5-point underdog this week, so the game script should be Roschon-friendly, but even when that’s been the case in previous weeks, Johnson his split the backfield work with Herbert and averaged just 9 touches per game. He’ll need efficiency to get by, and the Commanders rank 9^th in run defense DVOA. Roschon is in play as a fringe RB3 option, but I’d prefer to look elsewhere this week.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 5: @Atl.): Dell followed up back-to-back 20-point PPR games with a 1-catch, 29-scrimmage yard dud in week 4 against the Steelers. Through 4 games, it’s starting to feel like each game is either going to be a Tank Dell game or a Nico Collins game. Robert Woods hasn’t put up big fantasy production, but his role has been stable. He’s been right around a 20% target share every week, and between a 20% and 30% air yardage share in each game. Dell and Collins have seen much bigger weekly fluctuations. Collins had air yardage shares of 64% in week 1 and 42% in week 4, both games where he led the WR room in fantasy points. Dell was at 54% in week 3, when he finished as the PPR WR7. The duo was much closer together in air yards in week 2, when both players produced strong fantasy days. Overall, it’s been Collins who has more consistently seen downfield targets and has out-produced the rookie in 3-of-4 games. For the time being, I’d consider Collins a weekly WR2 option, and Dell a weekly WR3/4 option. The Falcons are not a good pass defense, ranking just 27^th in pass defense DVOA, but they also don’t face a ton of passing volume as they’re a bad run defense too. Atlanta has allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. That likely lower pass volume for the Texans has me leaning towards leaving Dell on the bench this week, but he’s right on the borderline.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Wilson posted a monster game in tough matchup with the 49ers last weekend, piling up a line of 7-76-2 on 7 targets, but it wasn’t due to some sort of fundamental change in his usage. Wilson logged a route participation rate of 74% in week 4 (his second-lowest mark of the season), and earned a 17% target share, which was his highest of the season but not by a wide margin. It’s a great sign that Wilson is seeing the ball come his way more often, but last week’s result was likely a bit of an outlier. Wilson has been very efficient this season, catching 89% of his targets and putting up nearly 15 yards per target. The Bengals this season have allowed just a 56.6% completion rate on throws to receivers and 7.8 yards per target. Expecting a top-20 finish out of Wilson this week is probably wishful thinking. You could certainly plug him in as a WR3/WR4 option, especially in deeper leagues, but he should be viewed as more of a floor play this week.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): The matchup is a good one this week for Downs against a Tennessee defense that ranks 25^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 7^th-most PPR points to opposing receivers lined up in the slot, but the overall volume just hasn’t been there for Downs and we don’t know what kind of impact Jonathan Taylor’s return will make on the team’s pass rate going forward. Downs has been held below 40 yards in all 3 games that Anthony Richardson has started, and even if he breaks that streak this week in this good matchup, he’s probably still just barely scratching and clawing his way to double-digit PPR points. Downs is a WR4 option this week in PPR leagues only.

WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): Mims came up with his 5^th catch of 30+ yards in the last 3 weeks against the Bears on Sunday, but the Broncos continue to frustratingly limit his playing time. He ran just 12 routes in that game and faces a tougher matchup this week against the Jets. The Jets’ defense has allowed the 4^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. I don’t love Mims’ chances of pulling in a deep ball or two in this matchup.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 5: @Det.): Mingo will return from his concussion this week, and he’s been he’s been a constant on the field when he’s been healthy, logging route participation rates of 93% and 97% in the first two games of the season. It remains to be seen if he’ll return to that same role since all of Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Terrace Marshall Jr. have posted 14+ PPR points in a game since Mingo’s injury. There are volume concerns with the Panthers averaging just 168 passing yards per game in Bryce Young’s starts, and the Lions rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. If Mingo has a breakout game this week, it would be totally unexpected. I’d keep him parked on the bench.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): Musgrave has cleared the concussion protocol and will return to face the Raiders on Monday night, and I expect his role to pick up where it left off. He’ll still function as the full-time tight end and the Raiders have allowed the 11^th-most TE points per game, so he is a viable starting option in this one. My concerns are that no tight end has caught for big volume against the Raiders (no tight end has reached 45 receiving yards against them this season), and we still haven’t seen if Musgrave’s targets will take a hit at all with Christian Watson back in the lineup since the rookie tight end was injured so early on in week 3. I wouldn’t bank on more than 5 or so targets for Musgrave this week, and that means you’re holding out hope for a touchdown. The Raiders have allowed 2 tight end scores in their first 4 games, so that TD is very much in play. If any of the teams on byes this week had a top-12 tight end, I’d probably be more bullish on Musgrave finishing that high this weekend. Instead, I’ll say that I’d consider him a top-16 option at TE for week 5.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Jax.): Kincaid was in a route on nearly 80% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks in week 4, but he logged his 3^rd game this season with fewer than 30 receiving yards. His targets continue to come mostly within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, which sort of misses out on the biggest advantage of playing with Josh Allen – his arm strength and willingness to take deep shots. Allen ranked 3^rd in the league in deep ball attempts last year, but Kincaid has had just 1 catch go for more than 10 yards this season. He gets a favorable matchup this week as the Jaguars allow the 6^th-most TE points per game, but I can’t recommend starting Kincaid given what his usage has looked like. You could plug him in as a desperation bye week fill in, but there just aren’t any top-flight tight ends on byes this week that you’re in need of replacing.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Jimmy Garoppolo is practicing as of Thursday, but has not yet cleared the NFL concussion protocol, leaving open the possibility that O’Connell will get a second start this week. The 4^th-round pick handled himself well at times in his first start and did a good job of getting the ball to Davante Adams in the 2^nd half, but he also turned the ball over 3 times against a Chargers defense that had been the worst QB defense in the league through 3 weeks and finished as the QB23. With 4 teams on a bye, any starting QB is in consideration in Superflex leagues, but O’Connell would be toward the bottom of the list of starters this week if he starts. He gets a tougher matchup against Green Bay. The Packers have allowed the 15^th-fewest QB points per game. If AOC starts again, he’s nothing more than a desperation plug-in for 2-QB and superflex leagues.

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Demercado has stepped in as the RB2 in Arizona with Keaontay Ingram battling a neck injury. He played 38% of the offensive snaps against the 49ers last Sunday, but that resulted in just 4 touches for 24 yards. He may get some extra run in weeks when the Cardinals are in catch-up mode as they were last week (Emari played 57% of the two-minute drill snaps in week 4), but this will remain James Conner’s backfield going forward. Demercado shouldn’t be a consideration as anything more than a waiver flyer in deeper dynasty leagues.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 5: @NE): Alvin Kamara returned from suspension in week 4 and dominated the Saints backfield. Kamara saw 11 carries and a whopping 14 targets against Tampa, while Miller and Tony Jones combined for just 1 target and 1 carry (both by Miller). Kendre’s opportunity to carve out a bigger role may have passed him by now that Kamara is back. He needs to stay on your bench (or dropped to the waiver wire).

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): Over the last 3 weeks combined, Bigsby has played 27 snaps and handled 5 carries and 1 target. There’s always a chance that Tank gets a goal line plunge, but if he doesn’t, he might give you less than 1 fantasy point. He’s not start-able for now.  

RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 5: @SF): Vaughn has handled 6+ touches in 3 of Dallas’ 4 games this season, but each of those games was a blowout win for the Cowboys. Dallas is a 4-point underdog on the road against the 49ers this week, and the odds of it being a laugher in the ‘Boys favor by halftime is almost zero. Don’t be surprised if Vaughn isn’t involved at all Sunday night.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Douglas tallied a 42-yard catch last Sunday at Dallas, but his playing time continues to be too limited to rely on. He draws targets when he’s on the field, with a 26% target per route run rate, but his route participation rate has been in the 40s in 3 games this season (and at 9% in the other game). That’s just not enough playing time to be useful in fantasy unless the Patriots are throwing the ball 45-50 times per game. They’ve attempted 29 and 30 passes in the last two weeks, and that number is unlikely to climb much this week. The Patriots-Saints tilt is one of just two games this week with a Vegas point total below 40 points.

WR Ronnie Bell, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Bell scored a TD in week 3 with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined, but with Jauan Jennings out and Deebo Samuel serving as a decoy in week 4, Bell was limited to just 3 routes run. Bell is the WR5 in this offense behind that trio and Ray-Ray McCloud, which makes him waiver wire fodder in all but deep dynasty leagues.

WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): Wicks logged his lowest route participation rate of the season in week 4 with Christian Watson back in the lineup, but the drop-off in playing time wasn’t as drastic as expected. Wicks was still in a route on 57% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks as Watson played a limited number of snaps. The problem is that Wicks was targeted just once after averaging 5 targets per game in the previous 2 games. It’s only going to get harder for Wicks to earn more targets as Watson gets up to full strength. The Raiders are a terrible defense, and this would be a spot where Wicks would have some extra upside if we knew he was going to get opportunities, but it’s hard to count on that this week. 

TE Josh Whyle, TEN (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Whyle finished last week as a top-12 TE after earning his first 2 targets of the season and hauling in a 24-yard touchdown. Don’t expect that kind of output regularly. He’s run just 11 routes all season.

Rookies on Byes in Week 5: QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, CLE, RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA, RB Sean Tucker, TB, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA, WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC, WR Trey Palmer, TB, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Will Levis, TEN, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Zach Evans, LAR, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Michael Mayer, LV, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Spears hasn’t quite had a breakout game yet, but he’s been much more involved in the Tennessee offense than we could’ve anticipated. He played more than 50% of the offensive snaps and logged a 50% or better route participation rate in 3 of 4 games, including in week 4 when the Titans were rolling the Bengals. Derrick Henry has handled over 70% of the team rushing attempts in all 4 games this year, but it’s a great sign for Spears that he’s still playing that kind of snap share in games with positive game script. I wouldn’t plug in Spears this week – the Colts rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs, the plays where Spears can do the most damage - but if he’s floating around on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues, he probably shouldn’t be. He’s a dynamic back who is going to have breakthrough games at some point.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 5: @Min.): Rice has yet to hit 12 PPR points in a game this season, but it feels like it’s coming soon, possibly as soon as this week. Rashee has seen his playing time go up in the last two weeks at the expense of Skyy Moore and MVS. He’s logged right around a 50% route participation rate in each of the last two games, and he’s drawing targets on an incredible 32% of his routes run. He also leads the team with 6 red zone targets. Kansas City has made a more concerted effort to get the ball into Rice’s hands than any other receiver on the team. This week they face a Minnesota defense that has allowed the most WR fantasy points per game and ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs also have the 2^nd-highest implied point total in the league this week (29 points), so there should be some red zone opportunities. Rice is more of a WR4/5 option for this week, but I like his chances of posting his best fantasy day of the season in an inviting matchup.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 5: @Mia.): You probably didn’t notice it while the Giants were struggling to muster any offense on Monday night against the Seahawks, but Jalin Hyatt was on the field and in a route for 59% of the Giants’ passing dropbacks. It was the first time this season that he’s eclipsed a 40% route participation rate, and it could be a sign that his playing time is increasing. You can chalk the playing time up to garbage time in a blowout loss if you want to, but this is a New York team that has been competitive just once in 4 games, and Hyatt didn’t see this much playing time in the other two blowouts. I think the Giants are looking for anything to spark this offense, and Hyatt’s deep speed could be an answer. The Dolphins are double-digit favorites in this game, so the Giants should again be playing catch-up, but Miami’s pass defense has had significant struggles this season. They rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game. They also allowed 4 completions of 25+ yards to the Broncos in their week 3 blowout win, including 2 to rookie Marvin Mims Jr. We’ve seen Miami’s defense lose focus when playing with a comfortable lead, and with Hyatt’s deep speed, we only need that to happen a couple times for the rookie to have a fruitful game. This is much more of a DFS consideration rather than a recommendation to plug him into season-long lineups, but I like Hyatt’s chances of getting loose for a deep ball or two on Sunday.

TE Darnell Washington, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): I’m just mentioning Washington here because the Steelers expect to be without Pat Freiermuth for a couple weeks with a hamstring injury, and that likely means a bigger role is coming for Washington in those games. He’s already played a snap share above 40% in each of the last 3 games, and I’d expect his route participation rate to come up with Muth sidelined. It was third-string tight end Connor Heyward who drew 4 targets in week 1 when Freiermuth was banged up, but Washington has a lot more size than Heyward and could be an attractive red zone target. I wouldn’t plug Washington into lineups this week against Baltimore (the Ravens allow the 2^nd-fewest TE points per game), but he’s worth a flyer in deep TE premium leagues in case he takes a true lead tight end role ahead of Heyward. The Steelers face a bottom-10 TE defense in week 7, and Freiermuth might not be back yet for that game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

As we head into week 5, we head into our second week of the International Series. This week we are sending the Bills over to London while keeping the Jaguars over there for a second straight week because Jacksonville probably wouldn’t notice anyway.

This, like last week, means that our Sunday is getting an early start. So if you are like me and wait until Sunday morning to do your final fantasy/confidence tweaking, remember to set your alarm!

Week 5 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

14 – MIAMI over New York Giants – The Dolphins put up 70 in their last home game…this time I feel like they could get 70 sacks against the Giants O-Line.

13 – WASHINGTON over Chicago – There is no way change can’t be coming soon. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that, if the Bears lose, MATT EBERFLUS WILL BE FIRED BEFORE WEEK 6.

12 – DETROIT over Carolina – The top three lines on a confidence pool sheet are the Dolphins, Commanders and Lions…whoduh thunk!

11 – BUFFALO over Jacksonville – The Bills lost to the Jets … that still just dumbfounds me.

10 – Baltimore over PITTSBURGH – The Steelers are playing almost the same kind of offense they just gave up 30 points to…only this offense is better.

9 – INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee – The Colts are just an intriguing team this year.

8 – DENVER over New York Jets – I’d say the non-Rodgers led Jets had there moment in the sun by almost winning last week…that won’t carry over.

7 – LAS VEGAS over Green Bay – OK, maybe still a little bit of a personal reason for putting the Raiders this high on the list.

6 – Cincinnati over ARIZONA – If they can’t beat the Cardinals, stick a fork in the Bengals.

5 – SAN FRANCISCO over Dallas – Grab your Pogs and put on some Ace of Base – this one will take you right back to the 90s!

4 – NEW ENGLAND over New Orleans – Two teams with two-letter abbreviations that both start with N … … … that’s the excitement I found for this one.

3 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Philadelphia – The will be the game the Rams show the league that they are indeed back.

2 – Houston over ATLANTA – This is going to be an unexpectedly fun game to watch.

1 – MINNESOTA over Kansas City – If you think someone will get their first win against the Chiefs, keep it on the one-point line.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

4 Career Pick-Sixes

Mac Jones has played 19 home games and has thrown 4 pick-sixes. That’s the same number that Tom Brady threw in his entire career in Foxborough. (Sidebar: Tom Brady has played in more Super Bowls, 10, than games in the Wild Card round, 7). This is normally where I’d pile on the Patriots and try to roast them for losing terribly two games in a row this year. To be honest though, I really want to see Bill Belichick get that win #300. He’s a hero to curmudgeons everywhere. This game was really the pinnacle, or I suppose the nadir, of this Patriots team. Their opponent had 12 penalties for 86 yards and only converted 1/3^rd of their third downs, yet still dominated the time of possession 2:1. The Patriots only converted 1 out of 14 third downs and had 156 total yards of offense. Well, there I go piling on when I said I wouldn’t. Hopefully, the Pats can win #300 for Bill this coming week because I don’t see it happening for the rest of the month while they play the Bills and Dolphins.

12.1 Yards Per Carry

De’Von Achane, yes, it took me one whole entry until I got to this season’s statistical freak, went into week 5 averaging 11.5 yards/attempt, and he only improved on that. He has a whopping 460 rushing yards, second only to Christian McCaffrey at 510. CMC has taken 99 carries to get there, compared to Achane’s 38. CMC’s average of 5.2 Y/A is absolutely pitful in comparison. OK, that might be a little far, but Achane has 17 carries of 20+ yards. He gains 20+ yards 45% of the time he gets handed the ball! The next closest player in terms of yards per carry is Breece Hall, and he’d be noticed and lauded in any year that isn’t 2023. Hall has 54 carries for a measly 387 yards – just 7.2 Y/A – why even bother? Achane, with essentially only 3 fantasy games under his belt (he has no points week 1, 1.5 points week 2) is still the RB3 on the season.

14 Consecutive Games with a Touchdown

Moving on to the guy who keeps seeing Achane in his rearview mirror. It’s not because Christian McCaffery is slowing down. I suppose that makes Achane more impressive because McCaffrey is now on quite a streak of 14 games in a row with a touchdown. He has 18 total touchdowns during that stretch. He’s averaging almost 25 fantasy points per game this year. McCaffrey has shown time and again that when healthy, he is the best player in fantasy football. Now that he’s on one of the best offenses in the league, it has to feel like your team starts every game with a lead.

3 of the Top 14 Kickers

I love to talk about removing kickers from fantasy football, and I just can’t help myself once again. This week – using the drinkfive fantasy football league as the standard – only 3 of the top 14 are rostered. None of the top 6 kickers are rostered. Kickers in the NFL are important in some situations. Kickers in fantasy football are random! With teams going for 2 more than ever, there’s not even the one-pointers to count on. The two most rostered players in Fleaflicker leagues, Tyler Bass (96%) and Justin Tucker (94%) combined for just 5.5 points. Together they would just be the K23 on the week! If the two best position players turned in games like that, it would be front story news on every fantasy website. But no, it’s just another Sunday for kickers. OK, I promise to lay off the kickers for a while.

186 Consecutive Pass Attempts

C.J. Stroud is the best-looking rookie QB to start the season. He currently has a streak of 186 consecutive pass attempts – all of the passes he’s thrown this season – without an interception. Stroud is the QB13 on the season so far. He’s thrown over 300 yards twice already and has 3 games with multiple touchdown passes. He’s pulled the Texans out of the basement with a respectable 2-3 start, including a TD pass to take the lead late in this week’s game. Unfortunately, he was up against the man who does not lose at home. Desmond Ridder has the Falcons at 3-2. All three victories occurred at home – two of those being exciting 4^th quarter comebacks. Ridder has not lost a game at home in his professional or college career. He’s 5-0 in the NFL as a starter at home, and of course, to balance it out, he’s 0-4 on the road.