Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The chaos of week 3 seemed to spill over into week 4 as we were treated to another round of surprise results. The primetime games all seemed to go according to plan, but the morning and afternoon games on Sunday were chock full of surprises again. The Dolphins were shellacked again as Alvin Kamara piled up 10 catches. Buffalo stunned the Falcons. Deshaun Watson and the Texans dropped over 50 points on the Titans. The “tanking” Jets pulled off their second win in as many weeks, and the Rams upended the Cowboys as Cooper Kupp got into the end zone for the 2nd time this year. There were plenty of impressive rookie performances, from Watson to Kupp to Kamara to Elijah McGuire, and the rookies will get even more important as the bye weeks get started. This week will be a little trickier to set lineups with Washington, New Orleans, Denver and Atlanta taking the week off. Let’s take a look at what to do with the rookies on your rosters and see if any of them can help fill in for those starters on byes…
Rookies to Start:
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 5: @Hou.):The Texans allow just the 3rd-fewest fantasy points per game (all stats in PPR scoring unless otherwise noted), so this may not be the best week to fire up Hunt in DFS lineups, but he’s a must-start in season-long leagues. He had his worst fantasy game of the year on Monday night, and still topped 100 rushing yards and ended up the RB17 for the week. You simply can’t sit him regardless of matchup right now.
RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Fournette has scored a TD and logged at least 16 touches and 61 scrimmage yards in every game so far, and the Steelers’ run defense has had some cracks this season. They’ve allowed 5.61 yards per carry to opposing backs over the past 3 weeks and have allowed the 9th-most RB points per game for the season. Fournette should be penciled in as an RB1 once again.
RB Aaron Jones, GB (Wk. 5: @Dal.): This status only applies if Ty Montgomery sits as expected. Jamaal Williams is expected to miss this game as well, and that would mean Jones has the backfield pretty much to himself. The Cowboys allow the 7th-most RB points per game, and the 3rd-most RB receiving yards per game. While Jones hasn’t flashed much receiving ability at the NFL level, he did put up 646 receiving yards in his college career at UTEP. With the byes and injuries going on right now, Jones should be a solid RB2 if TyMo and Williams are both sidelined.
Borderline Rookies:
QB DeShaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. KC):Watson has dazzled in his last two starts for the Texans. He gets a tougher matchup this week against a Chiefs team that has allowed just 7.1 QB points per game on the road (vs. Tom Brady and Philip Rivers). There is some reason for optimism though. Kansas City has allowed the 8th-most passing yards per game and the 2nd-most QB rushing yards per game so far. There’s certainly risk that Watson turns into a pumpkin this week, but he’s easily the highest-upside streamer that’s likely to be available in most leagues. He’s a borderline QB1 option this week.
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ):Don’t overreact when you see Kizer and Watson listed in the same section. Watson is a borderline option in standard leagues this week…Kizer is more of a borderline option in 2-QB leagues. With 4 teams on bye (3 with a top-10 fantasy QB), almost all of the starting QBs are in play in the 2-QB format. Kizer has been up and down so far this year with 2 games at 18 points or more scored, and two games under 4 points. The Jets have looked pretty good over the past 2 weeks at home after scuffling in 2 road games to start the year. There is some hope that with this game in Cleveland that the Jets return to their struggling ways, but I doubt that happens. The floor for Kizer is helped by the fact that the Jets allowed both mobile QBs they’ve faced, Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor, to rush for over 35 yards, but it’s still pretty a pretty low floor For DeShone. There’s always the chance that Hue Jackson benches him mid-game for Kevin Hogan again. Kizer is a boom-or-bust streaming option for 2-QB leagues.
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.):Sub-par O-line play has made it hard for Mixon to really get going, but his usage has been promising. Mixon only played on 48% of the offensive snaps in week 4, but he touched the ball 21 times on 31 snaps played. The Bills’ run defense is tough, but it isn’t impenetrable. They were ranked 9th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat through week 3, and then they allowed the Falcons’ RBs to rush for over 5 yards per carry. The Falcons’ rushing attack has been much more efficient than the Bengals’ this year, but Mixon remains in play as an RB2/flex option that carries a bit of risk. If he sees 20+ touches again, he should return better value than he did a week ago.
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 5: @Det.):McCaffrey was a big letdown in a good spot last weekend. He posted just 8.9 PPR points on 10 touches against a Patriots defense that had been bleeding receiving points to running backs. For the season, he’s just the RB20 in PPR scoring and has finished higher than the RB24 just once in an individual week. The Lions are just a middling running back defense, but it’s hard to trust CMC as more than a lower end PPR RB2/flex play, even with the byes this week. He’s always a threat to have a blow-up week with his talent, but he’s had just one play all year that went for more than 16 yards.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Min.):Cohen clings to the borderline this week in PPR formats due to byes/injuries, but this is probably not a great spot to use him. For starters, there’s the uncertainty of how much his role will change with Mitch Trubisky at QB. He’s averaged 7 targets a game with Glennon at QB, and there’s no guarantee that holds up with Mitch. There’s also the fact that the Vikings run defense has been excellent so far, even after allowing 94 yards and a TD to Ameer Abdullah last weekend. They’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards, the 4th-fewest yards per carry, and the 2nd-fewest RB fantasy points per game. While Cohen thrives on passing game work as much as rushing, the Vikes have allowed the 5th-fewest RB catches per game as well. Cohen’s game-breaking ability could help him overcome the tough matchup, but everything seems stacked against him this week. I’d only play him if you have to.
WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. Sea.):Kupp has seen 6 or 7 targets in 3 of the first 4 games of the year. The Seahawks are more susceptible to slot WRs than perimeter guys, especially with normal slot corner Jeremy Lane out. Kupp should see mostly New England castoff Justin Coleman’s coverage in this one. The Seahawks’ vaunted Legion of Boom secondary has struggled away from C-Link Field so far this year, allowing 39.6 PPR points per game to opposing WRs on the road. Kupp should be a reasonable WR3 option in PPR again despite the Seahawks’ defensive reputation.
TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 5: vs. LAC):The Chargers have allowed the 7th-fewest points per game to opposing TEs, and held Travis Kelce to 1 catch for 1 yard in week 3, but Engram just keeps putting up borderline TE1 weeks. Through 4 games, he’s ranked as the TE14, TE9, TE14, and TE8. If you need a streamer to replace Jordan Reed this week, Engram is probably the best option you’re going to find if available.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Min.):It was nice of the Bears to give Trubisky his first start in the friendly confines of Soldier Field, but with a matchup against the stingy Vikings’ defense, that crowd may turn much less friendly on Monday night. Through the first 4 weeks of the season, the average weekly QB12 has put up 18.75 fantasy points. The Vikings are allowing 14.67 points per game to the position, and have faced a gauntlet of Drew Brees (posted QB16 week vs. Vikings), Big Ben at home in Pittsburgh (QB8), JameisWiston (QB19), and Matt Stafford (QB22). To expect a rookie making his first career start to succeed where that group has mostly failed is not wise. Trubisky could be in for a long Monday night.
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 5: @Cle.):While McGuire was impressive last week, I doubt we get an encore in week 5. He was out-snapped 46-19 and out-touched 25-12 by Bilal Powell in that game last Sunday, and he put up 12.9 of his 21.1 PPR points on one play. The Browns have allowed just 3.08 yards per carry and have allowed only 2 carries of 20 or more yards for the year. The odds that McGuire turns limited snaps into another big day aren’t high. Powell is the Jets’ back to play. McGuire should be left benched.
RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. KC):Kansas City is allowing just 13.2 PPR points per game to opposing RBs over the past 3 weeks. The Broncos are the best RB defense in the league so far, and they allow 14.4 per game. Foreman only played 29% of the offensive snaps last week in Houston’s blowout win. He would need a Lamar Miller injury or a plus matchup where he can turn limited opportunity into production in order to be playable. He certainly doesn’t get the latter this week, and there’s no way to predict the former.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Car.):Even if Golladay suits up this week, the Panthers have been pretty good at limiting his bread and butter: the deep ball. They’ve allowed just 8 completions of 20 or more yards through 4 games. Golladay will be a TD-or-bust option this week, and he remains questionable to even play. I’d steer clear of Kenny.
WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 5: @Ind.):While it was nice to see Taylor get targeted 10 times last Sunday, he’s unlikely to see the same volume this week. Garcon isn’t going to be locked down by Patrick Peterson in this one, and the way to beat the Colts is to throw downfield. Taylor has made his living on short passes, with just 8.5 yards per catch. The Colts have allowed 26 completions of 20 or more yards in 4 games. Only the Patriots (19) and Saints (21) have allowed more than 15 other than Indy. Aldrick Robinson or Marquise Goodwin (if he plays) will be the better second option to Garcon in this one.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 5: @Cin.):The connection with Tyrod is still just not there despite Zay playing basically full-time snaps. Taylor completed 11-of-13 throws targeting anyone other than Jones last Sunday, but connected on just 1-of-5 when Zay was the target. That brings the season totals for Jones to 4 catches on 17 targets. Jordan Matthews is expected to miss about a month with an injury, so it’s worth watching to see if Zay’s role increases, but his efficiency has been so bad you can’t play him anywhere this week.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ):The Jets have allowed just 3 catches for 16 yards to opposing tight ends in the past 2 games, and haven’t allowed a tight end TD since week 1. They held Marcedes Lewis without a catch a week ago after the Jags TE caught 3 TD passes in London the week before. Njoku is yet to top 3 catches or 27 yards in any game this season. There’s no reason to start him and hope for a TD.
TE Jonnu Smith, TEN (Wk. 5: @Mia.):Smith is already a TD dart throw at best with Delanie Walker around, and now it sounds like Marcus Mariota will miss this game after the Titans signed Brandon Weeden. The odds Jonnu scores a TD definitely are lower with Matt Cassel under center.
Rookies on Byes: RB SemajePerine, WAS, RB Alvin Kamara, NO
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 5: vs. LAC):Gallman got on the field last week and scored his first career TD. He was also the Giants most effective runner, but he still put up just 3.8 yards per carry. There’s a chance the Giants don’t let Gallman continue to see the amount of work he did last week with Orleans Darkwa expected back, but I think he’s earned a bigger role. The Chargers have allowed over 100 RB rushing yards in all 4 games this year, and have coughed up over 30 RB PPR points in each of the last 2. Gallman is still really cheap in DFS ($3,900 on DrafKings), and could be a decent flex option in deep leagues this week. The Giants’ shaky run game makes him hard to trust as more than that.
RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 5: @NYG):Melvin Gordon has been battling a knee injury and general ineffectiveness, and Ekeler has looked better in his limited touches than Branden Oliver has. Ekeler is only an option as a stash in really deep leagues as he’s played just 12 offensive snaps, but he’s made the most of those snaps. He’s put up 82 yards and a TD on just 6 touches. Oliver, meanwhile, has 78 yards and no scores on 22 touches. If something were to happen to Melvin Gordon, I think there’s a real chance Ekeler would play a really big role. Hopefully his recent play has been impressive enough to warrant a bigger role going forward anyway.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Jax.):No team allows fewer fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers than the Jaguars. Luckily for JJSS, he gets to avoid their top corners since Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant are around. Smith-Schuster has seen 14 targets in the past 3 weeks, and scored 2 TDs. It’s tough to trust him with just 34 yards per game in that stretch and a tough matchup this week, but he’s a stong TD dart throw once again. We all know how much better Big Ben is at home.
WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 5: @NYG):I mention Williams only as a stash at this point, and only for deeper leagues. The Chargers have gotten decent production out of Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams, but Mike is expected to return and be active this weekend. If he looks good, he could supplant Travis Benjamin as the WR3 before long. The Chargers face two very burnable pass defenses in the next few weeks (Oakland in week 6 and New England in week 8). It might make sense to scoop him up now before people see what he can do.
TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 5: vs. NE):Howard isn’t running nearly as many routes as teammate Cameron Brate, and he’s only seen 8 targets through 3 games, but there are several factors working in his favor this week. The 4 targets he received last weekend were a season-high, he’s still playing about two-thirds of the Bucs’ offensive snaps, and he gets a choice matchup with the Patriots this week. The Pats are allowing the 4th-most TE fantasy points per game so far, and they have a good enough offense to force Tampa to keep throwing to stay in the game. The floor is pretty low for season-long leagues, but OJ has great upside for DFS tournaments this week, and costs just $200 more than the minimum on DraftKings.
TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 5: @Ind.):Kittle has been playing almost full-time snaps, and is second on the 49ers in number of pass routes run. It’s only a matter of time before it starts to translate into more targets for the Iowa product. He’s had 14 targets through the first 4 games. The Colts allow the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs per game, so there is a chance his improvement starts this week. I like Kittle’s chances to post his best game of the season. I don’t know what that means for where you would play him, but a 50-yard game isn’t out of the question here.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with those tough lineup decisions and helps you fill in some of your bye spots. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final check before the games to make sure your guys are active. If you take issue with anything above or have any questions or general feedback, feel free to hit me up on twitter to discuss (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Last week was a tale of two halves. The first saw me with my head in my hands cursing my reluctance to select the Packers in their beat down of the Bears, while watching the Seahawks trail the Colts 15-10 at the half. Then alas the third quarter started and the Hawks began laying a beat down of their own en route to a 46-18 victory. Others were not so lucky, with 196 more people being eliminated in week 4. The 3 biggest disappointments came at the hands of Atlanta, Dallas, and New England.
Week 5 might be the hardest week to pick all season. All the bad teams play each other (Jets/Browns), and all the best teams have tough match-ups, are on bye, or on the road. The weeks biggest favorite is the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Steelers are the team I feel most confident in this week, and they actually haven't been that impressive this season yet. Unfortunately for me, I already used the Steelers up in a week 1 victory.
So, I have to go with my second choice, the Philadelphia Eagles at home against the Arizona Cardinals. The Eagles have looked impressive all season long and have their only loss coming at the hands of the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in week 2 (27-20). The Cardinals, on the other hand, look to be a team one season prior to a rebuild. While this game will feature Arizona's biggest strength (their passing game) going against the Eagles biggest weakness (their secondary), I still see the Eagles pulling this one off to add to their nice lead in the NFC East. Is there such a thing as making them beat us on the ground? Because at just 2.65 YPR the Cardinals will need 5 downs to get a 1st.
Good Luck,
Drink Five!!
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
0-4 vs the Chargers
Eli Manning is now 0-4 against the team that he shunned on draft day, way back in 2004. Sure, he probably made the right call, considering the Giants have two Super Bowl rings to the Charger's zero since that draft, but karma's a bitch. The Giants lost all 4 of their wide receivers on Sunday, with Odell Beckham Jr. and Dwayne Harris out for the season. We'll see what happens going forward with Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard, but the Giants are really hurting now and have an 0-5 record to show for all their struggles. For now, the Giants are a fantasy wasteland, best avoided until they can get some things figured out.
73 Seconds to Win the Game
When Aaron Rodgers has the ball in his hands at the end of a game, it just feels like a TD is inevitable. Perhaps the biggest mistake the Cowboys made in their own late fourth quarter touchdown drive was leaving too much time on the clock for Rodgers. This game delivered on its marquee matchup status, with 5 lead changes in the fourth quarter and a ridiculous end of game lateral play that worked a lot better than most - and resulted in the Packers D/ST gaining two fumble recoveries in the same play. Can we get an official scorekeeper explanation on this? As a commissioner, I sure can't explain it to people in my league. Sorry, @Shawn_Foss.
125.8 Passer Rating
Alex Smith has a 125.8 passer rating for the 2017 season, through 5 games. This leads the league, and it's not even very close. Brady is second with 112 - but Brady is closer to Deshaun Watson at 7 than he is to Alex Smith. Smith is also leads the league in completion percentage (76.6), yards per attempt (8.8), game winning drives (3) and has zero interceptions so far. In fact, he has zero turnovers at all and over 100 rushing yards already! All this maybe makes this last stat a little more impressive - he's only second overall in fantasy points this season, now just 0.32 points behind a guy who didn't even start in Week 1.
5 (more) Passing TD's
Deshaun Watson scored another 5 TD's last night, and has 10 in the last two games (9 passing, 1 rushing). He has now put up over 70 points in the last two weeks, with those games basically splitting that total. This has catapulted him into the top fantasy spot after 5 weeks, and with his 30.8 point average over the last three weeks, he's not just in the QB1 discussion, he's near the top of it. The Texans get Cleveland next week, followed by a bye week and a pretty easy looking schedule with a couple of tough road games sprinkled in. Watson has made a whole bunch of guys fantasy relevant in Houston, including Will Fuller and D'onta Foreman, not to mention the re-emergence of DeAndre Hopkins as a solid WR1.
5 Interceptions
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 INT's on Sunday, yes F-I-V-E. Two of those went as a pick-six and perhaps the better story here is that the Jaguars DST has 12 or more points in 4 of their 5 games this season. Yesterday's 28 points matches their Week 1 total, and a home game against the Rams and a road game in Indy means you fire them up for a couple more weeks before their bye. It also is likely to mean you find a way to keep them through your bye week. On the other side, you've got the Steelers juggernaut offense that is just....not. Roethlisberger knows it's basically on him to figure this out and improve so as to not squander the great talent they have surrounded him with. Matchups in KC and Detroit over the next three weeks do not give a good outlook that he gets it turned around quickly.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was an exciting one, and one that went much more according to plan than week 3. Fitzmagic may have died for good, Corey Davis finally had the breakout game we’ve been waiting for, and Patrick Mahomes saw his legend grow after an incredible left-handed throw helped the Chiefs to a come from behind win on Monday night. It was an exciting week for some rookies as well. Keke Coutee burst onto the scene with a 100-yard day in his NFL debut, Nick Chubb found the end zone twice, and Sony Michel posted 100 rushing yards for the first time. It wasn’t as fruitful a day for the rookie QBs, as all 4 came away with L’s in week 4. Baker Mayfield turned the ball over 4 times, and he still probably played better than Josh Allen. The fun continues this week, so let’s take a look at what to expect in week 5…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 5: @Car.): Barkley has shown himself to be a locked-in RB1 every week regardless of opponent. He’s not an ideal DFS option this week facing a Carolina defense that has allowed the 10th-fewest RB points per game (all scores and ranks are in PPR format), but you can’t sit him in season-long leagues. His usage gives him too much weekly upside to bench him.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): The Patriots are a 10-point favorite this week at home against the Colts, and the Rex Burkhead injury has clarified the team’s backfield roles. Michel has taken the reins of the early down work, and James White will serve as the 3rd-down receiving back moving forward. That makes both backs extremely valuable moving forward. In week 4, Michel handled 25 carries despite playing just 33 offensive snaps. He’s the focal point of the run game, and the Pats should get to do a bunch of running again this week. Sony has a chance at a big game.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Regression is likely coming for Ridley, but with 6 TDs in his last 3 games, you have to ride the hot streak while it lasts. That’s especially true with the Falcons traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers’ defense that is bleeding the 3rd-most WR points per game to opponents. Keep rolling with Ridley for now. He may be here to stay.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 5: @SF): Rosen is an intriguing option in 2QB leagues this week facing a less than stellar 49ers’ secondary. The rookie looked at least competent in his first NFL start, and the 49ers have allowed the 8th-most QB fantasy points per game and rank 20th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA statistic. San Francisco has also allowed at least 20 QB points and 2 passing TDs each and every week. Rosen has potential for a much better showing than what he did a week ago.
RBs Royce Freeman & Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 5: @NYJ): Freeman and Lindsay both have shown themselves to be weekly borderline RB2 options regardless of game script, and this week should be no different. The Jets have allowed 30+ RB points in back-to-back weeks, and are not a defense to run away from with this duo. Freeman is the better option in standard leagues, and Lindsay is the better option in PPR formats.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 5: vs. GB): It’s going to be hard to fully rely on Kerryon until the Lions give him the keys to the backfield. His efficiency has been off the charts. He’s averaged more than 5 yards per carry in each of the last 3 games, but he’s averaged just 11 attempts per game. If his efficiency drops a bit, the weekly floor is concerning. Kerryon played just 20 snaps last week out of 54 team offensive snaps. That’s just not enough playing time to treat Johnson as an every-week starter.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 5: @NE): Hines’s role as the top receiving back in Indy seems pretty secure after the way he played in week 4. If Marlon Mack returns this week, I still think Hines gets a decent number of targets. The game script certainly will play in his favor with the Pats favored by 10. He’s going to be a valuable PPR flex option going forward.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Will Fuller is questionable this week with a hamstring injury. If Fuller isn’t able to go, Coutee is a solid flex or WR3 in deeper leagues. He came on the scene in a big way last Sunday, putting up 11-109 on 15 targets in his season debut. The Cowboys do a good job of slowing down the game, but they rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA. It may feel like point chasing to use Coutee this week, but the opportunity should be there if Fuller sits.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): For all the excitement Mayfield brought in his first NFL action in leading the Browns to their first win in more than a year, he came crashing back to earth a bit in his first start. Mayfield turned the ball over 4 times against a lackluster Raiders’ team, and gets a tougher matchup with the Ravens this week. Baltimore ranks 5th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and they’ve allowed just one passing score total in the 3 games that they didn’t square off against the Bengals. You might not have a choice in deeper 2QB leagues, but I’d probably lean against Baker this week in most formats.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Den.): The Broncos are not the shut down pass defense they once were, but they’re not exactly a defense to target either. Darnold has put up 3 consecutive shaky performances since his strong debut, and I don’t feel confident that this is the week he gets it going again. He’s a desperation QB2 at best.
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): We got to see the good Josh Allen against the Vikings 2 weeks ago, and the bad against the Packers last Sunday…and it was very bad. The Titans are a decent pass defense that has been improving as the season has gone on, but the Vikings weren’t exactly slouches on that side of the ball. Allen’s Jekyll & Hyde act makes him a boom-or-bust QB2 option. There is too much QB production out there this season to take on that weekly risk in a matchup like this one.
RB Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 5: @NE): Game script is likely to be negative for the Colts in this one, and Wilkins hasn’t produced much in the opportunities he’s received thus far. Hines is a much better option at this point.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. LAR): Even with Chris Carson sidelined in week 4, Penny played second fiddle to Mike Davis, who was extremely impressive in a win over the Cardinals. The Rams are stingy versus the run, and Penny may be the number 3 back moving forward if Carson returns. This is a player to avoid for now.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Chubb’s 2 long TD runs last Sunday were exciting to see and may have earned him more playing time moving forward, but he played just 3 snaps. The Ravens allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game, so I would steer clear even if you believe the playing time will go up. Don’t chase last week’s points.
RB Mark Walton, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Walton did see a bit more work behind Gio Bernard in week 4, but even with Mixon out he’s no more than a change-of-pace back. He shouldn’t be in your lineups at this point.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 5: @NYJ): The Jets rank 2nd in the league in pass defense DVOA, and QB Case Keenum’s play has been spotty at best. Sutton is no more than a DFS tournament dart throw this week, even though he’s been outplaying Demaryius Thomas lately.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 5: @SF): Kirk is averaging 5 catches per game over the past 3 weeks, but he also averaged 7 yards per catch or fewer in 2 of them. The QB switch to Rosen is likely good for him overall, but his current usage really isn’t helpful in fantasy leagues. A line of 5-30 isn’t going to be much benefit in anything but the deepest of leagues.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Callaway has seen plenty of opportunity over the past few weeks, but he hasn’t turned it into production and has made several mistakes on the field. Hue Jackson has talked about dialing back Callaway’s playing time this week. It may just be a motivation tactic, but I think he’ll make good on it Sunday. I’m staying away from Callaway this week, especially against a solid Ravens’ defense.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): I’m hopeful the Panthers made an effort to come up with ways to get DJ more involved over the bye week, but I need to see it before I believe it, especially facing a Giants’ defense that has allowed the fewest WR points per game in the league.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 5: @Hou.): The Texans’ defense against WRs is trending in the wrong direction (22.6, 27.9, 42.4. and 67.4 PPR points allowed in the first 4 games), and Gallup is trending in the right direction (1,2,4, and 5 targets in the first 4 games), but he’s still not seeing enough action to be worth a roll of the dice here. Gallup has totaled just 5-76-0 in 4 weeks.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): With Alshon back Goedert just wasn’t a featured part of the offense in week 4. He was targeted just twice in Carson Wentz’s 37 passing attempts. It seems that at least for now Zach Ertz is back in charge of the TE passing looks in the Eagles’ offense. Goedert should stay on your bench for now.
TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 5: @Cle.): Hurst’s likely return this week makes an already murky TE situation even more confusing for Baltimore. There are already 3 tight ends playing a decent number of snaps, and adding a 4th won’t add much clarity. We need to wait at least a week to see how things play out.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): The Giants are allowing the 5th-fewest TE points per game, and Thomas has yet to clear 20 receiving yards in a game. He has been targeted in the red zone 3 times, but the Giants are yet to allow a TD to a tight end. I don’t expect Thomas to be the one to break through this week.
Rookies on bye: RB Ronald Jones III, TB
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): If Devonta Freeman is active this week, scratch everything that I write here about Smith this week, but Ito has been useful in the deepest of leagues while Freeman has been out. He’s averaged 8 touches and 43 yards per game over the last 3 weeks, and should make an intriguing fill-in for really deep leagues and DFS tournaments if Devonta winds up sidelined again. This game has the makings of a shootout, so there will be plenty of fantasy numbers to go around.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): The Falcons have been shredded by WRs thus far, and have lost 3 safeties to injury this season. Washington has been playing a ton of snaps. The targets are bound to come eventually. He’s an upside dart throw in DFS tournaments this weekend with this game having the highest over/under number of the week.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 5: @Det.): Randall Cobb wasn’t close to playing last week. Geronimo Allison was concussed last Sunday against Buffalo. Davante Adams will match up against Darius “Big Play” Slay. If Allison is out, There will be opportunity for one of Green Bay’s rookie WRs. Valdes-Scantling is the most likely beneficiary after playing 54 snaps in Cobb’s absence in week 4. We haven’t seen enough production to trust him in season-long leagues, but he’s a very interesting DFS dart throw for tournaments this week.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 5: @Cin.): This is as good a week as any to try Gesicki in DFS tournaments. The Bengals have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, and have allowed a TD to the position in 3 out of 4 games. Game script should keep the Dolphins throwing with Cincy favored by nearly a touchdown.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tougher lineup decisions this week that involve rookies. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make certain not to start anyone who is sitting the week out. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.