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Jason Evans

Jason Evans

I am a co-founder and the editor of drinkfive.com. In order to stave off fantasy football insanity, Dave and I have branched out to cover a variety of interests. When I'm not knee deep in wikipedia pages, I like to hang out at breweries or a disc golf course (especially both in the same day). FSWA Member for 5+ years.

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 8
01
November

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 8

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL
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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

37 Pass Completions

 

Jets QB Mike White set an NFL record with 37 pass completions in his very first start, but the fun numbers from the game did not stop there. White set the second-highest yardage total in a first start with 406, which was good for the most yardage so far in Week 8. White posted the highest yardage total for a Jets QB since Vinny Testaverde in 2000. White finished the Week as the QB2 in fantasy, the best of the QBs who are not owned in many leagues in a week dominated by guys like that. 5 of the top 10 QBs this week, so far, are not rostered on any team in the drinkfive.com league and have an average ownership rate of just under 30% in Fleaflicker leagues. White has certainly earned himself a chance to start another week or two, and may even find himself as the permanent starter if he continues to play at a high level like this. It’s really a tough break for all of us who said “Mike White? Who the hell is that?” and proceeded to pick the Bengals in our survivor pools.

 

331 Yards Per Game

 

Tom Brady, at age 44, is currently dominating in many statistical passing categories. He currently leads the league in completions, pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. He is the QB1 on the season with 206.9 total fantasy points in just 8 games. Only Josh Allen has a higher PPG average than Brady, but sits as the QB2 due to bye weeks. Allen isn’t really putting up the passing numbers that Brady is either, with Allen’s fantasy points bolstered by 269 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs. But, back to Brady, who put up another ho-hum performance yesterday of 375 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. Heck, he even threw a touchdown to the wrong team yesterday, which is the only thing that keeps him from passing the aforementioned Mike White as the QB2 for the week. Brady’s huge offensive output has kept 3 of his WRs as regular starts, when healthy. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown are all in the top 22 WRs by total fantasy points. If you look at them on a points per game basis, they are all ranked in the top 19.

 

137 Rush Yards

 

Elijah Mitchell is the only running back so far in Week 8 to have surpassed the 100 rushing yard mark. In an era where the traditional running back role seems to be disappearing week by week – and we lost our #1 boy this week, perhaps for the season – it’s increasingly rare to find someone top 100 yards rushing. This doesn’t mean that RBs are necessarily going away, they just get their points in a variety of ways. This week, 23 RBs had at least 10 points or more, so there’s plenty of good players out there still, but it’s so clear that this is a passing league now. 8 wide receivers passed the century mark on Sunday (no RBs or TEs joined them with 100+ receiving yards). Speaking of passers – the only other player with 100+ rushing yards this week is Justin Fields, who had 103 yards in a losing effort against Mitchell’s 49ers. Perhaps it’s fitting that the last bastion of 100-yard rushers is Soldier Field, for this week anyway.

 

4 WRs with 10+ Receptions

 

Illustrating my point about this being a passing-dominated league, which I suppose I seem to make at least a couple of times per year, is the fact that this week had the most players with 10+ catches of any this year. This week, we saw Tyler Lockett, Cole Beasley, A.J. Brown, and Michael Pittman all catch at least 4 passes. All but Pittman went over 100 yards as well, but Pittman managed to find the end zone twice, so we’ll still give him an A+ for his fantasy day. There were 3 weeks with 3 WRs at 10+ receptions, and 3 weeks with just 1 WR with 10+ receptions. Even with the 17th game added this season, the season-long receptions record, set by Michael Thomas in 2019, seems perfectly safe. Currently, Cooper Kupp leads the league in receptions and is only on pace for about 133 receptions on the year, good for just 5th on the all-time list. Also, an honorable mention must go to T.J. Hockenson, the only non-WR to crack the 10 receptions mark this week. In fact, kudos to Hockenson, who has currently the TE1 on the week without even finding the end zone.

 

38.7 Receiving Yards Per Game

 

Odell Beckham Jr. has really fallen from the heights of the top WRs in the league. With just 38.7 yards per game, he is a long way from his 80.3 career average (it was 83.3 going into this season). In Odell’s rookie year, he led the league with 108.8 yards per game, and he posted double-digit TDs in each of his first 3 seasons. He now has just a 50% catch rate on the year (61% going into the season). He posted a season-low 1.1 fantasy points this week, his 4th game of the year where he is below just 5 points. Odell is not alone, however. Allen Robinson has had an equally disappointing fantasy season. Since week 1, he has not topped 4 receptions in a game, and in 2021, he has not broken into double-digit fantasy points once. He is at less than half his yards per game, 33.9, than he had in his first 3 seasons in Chicago, 70.0. Robinson is the WR63 for the season, a truly terrible mark for someone who has not missed a game this year.

 

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 7
25
October

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 7

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL
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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

162.1 Total Fantasy Points

 

Derrick Henry didn’t score another 3 TDs this week, but he didn’t need to in order to finish the week as the highest scoring player in all of fantasy football for the 2021 season. Henry, who scored just 15.4 points this week, actually brought his average down to 27 points per game, in part because he failed to find the end zone. He did manage to throw a touchdown, however, salvaging his worst fantasy performance since Week 1 of this season. Speaking of bad fantasy performances, Patrick Mahomes put up his second worst fantasy game ever (Week 7 of 2019 was the only game worse). This poor performance left just enough of a window for Henry to pass Mahomes for the season-long lead. The last time a non-QB finished with the most fantasy points at the end of a season was Todd Gurley in 2017, who manage to do that in only 15 games.

 

201 Receiving Yards

 

This week, Ja’Marr Chase announced his presence as not only an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate (he was already in the lead for that) but as one of the best wide receivers in the game right now. Chase is now the WR2 through 7 games on the season, finished just behind Cooper Kupp for both the season and Week 7-point totals. Chase had a career high 201 receiving yards, helped along by an 82-yard touchdown reception – a short pass where he got the ball over the middle and did the rest of the work himself. This was Chase’s second game with 10 targets. He leads the league with 21.5 yards per reception and is second only to Kupp in season long yardage. Chase is doing the most with what he’s given. He has only 35 receptions on the whole season (on pace for 85 for the year, though I would bet on the over for that). By contrast, Kupp has more receptions (56) than Chase even has targets (51). Chase’s 3.6 points per touch is an amazing number, one that is unmatched by anyone in the league so far.

 

28.54 Fantasy Points

 

The best free agent of the week, at least in the drinkfive.com “experts” league, is Tua Tagovailoa, owned in 71% of Fleaflicker leagues, but not this one. Tua is not only the best free agent of the week, he’s the best QB of the week, out of all players. Tua just edges out his 2020 draft mate, Joe Burrow, who led his team to a very impressive 41-17 victory over the Ravens. Tue finishes as the 4th highest scoring player on the week, before the two WRs mentioned above and the man who gave away Tom Brady’s 600th touchdown catch. Thankfully for Mike Evans, the fan gave it back, so he doesn’t have to get the cold shoulder from Brady for the rest of the season. Tua had a rough start to this season, but after a few weeks off for injury, he has returned and played very well at QB. In 2 games he has 6 touchdowns (and 3 picks, yuck). He has also run for over 20 yards in each game, and is averaging 25.45 points per game during this stretch. With games against Houston, New York Jets, and Carolina coming up, he’s a great streaming option to keep around for a while.

 

89.47% Catch Rate

 

The highest catch rate in the NFL belongs to Bengals TE C.J. Uzomah, who has caught 17 of his 19 targets so far this season (Pat Freiermuth leads the league at 90%). Uzomah has had quite the up-and-down season. He’s currently the TE10 on the year with 64.1 total fantasy points, however, 46.6 of those points (almost 73% of his total points) came in weeks 4 and 7. He finished as the TE1 in week 4 and currently leads the field in week 7 with no looming threats to overtake him on Monday night. Despite his fantasy high points, he’s a very tough player to start. He has only one week with more than 3 targets, and that was just 6 in week 4. Despite this, he’s managed to find the end zone 5 times in the last 4 games, so perhaps it’s time to find a way to insert him into your lineup, and maybe more than just a streaming option. Oh yea, and if you’re wondering, Rondale Moore has the highest catch percentage among wide receivers at 83.87%. Jaylen Waddle has the highest catch percentage among WRs with more than 50 targets with 77.19%.

 

602 Career Touchdowns

 

There was one thing happening this week that I just had to mention, and no, it’s not National Tight Ends Day. Raise your hand if you’re sick of hearing about that. No, this week Tom Brady threw his 600th touchdown in the regular season. And his 599th, and numbers 601 and 602 if we’re counting them all. Of course, we are. This season, Brady is leading the league with 21 passing touchdowns. Matthew Stafford is in 2nd with 19. Brady also has a rushing touchdown, for good measure. He has 26 of those in his career. In addition, the ageless one is leading the league in completions, passing attempts, passing yards, and yards per game. Pretty good for anyone, unprecedented for a 44-year-old in the NFL. The yards per game mark is his second highest in his entire career, and he’s ahead of his career averages in completion percentage, interception percentage, and QB rating. I suppose if you’re going to play so many years in the NFL, you might as well make them count instead of just playing out the streak. In a league with so much great young QB talent, Brady might still be the best one each and every Sunday that he steps on the field. And I don’t mean that as an overall picture, I mean that right freaking now, he’s the best QB in football.

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Statistically (in)Significant: Week 6
18
October

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 6

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL
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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

 83-yard Rushing Attempt

 

Jonathan Taylor set a franchise record with an 83-yard rush that amazingly did not score a touchdown. Taylor is averaging 25.9 points per game over the last 3 weeks, he has 441 yards from scrimmage and 5 touchdowns over that time. He’s averaging 6.7 yards per carry during those games and had an explosive 116 yards of receiving in Week 5. Taylor now sits as the RB4 on the season – this week he finished as the RB1 and he’s been in the top 10 for the past 3 weeks. Among the top 5 fantasy RBs, only Austin Ekeler has fewer touches (100) than Taylor (102). Taylor had at least 3x as many yards as anyone else on his team, save for TY Hilton, who he almost doubled up, as TY had 80 yards against an opponent who he routinely torches, despite having just returned from injury.

 

115 Passing Yards

 

Jalen Hurts ended the day on Sunday as the QB4 on the week, despite completing just 12 passes for 115 yards and 1 INT. His real fantasy value comes from his legs – he had 44 yards on the ground and found the end zone twice, netting him a cool 26 fantasy points. His passing yards were less than half of all of the top 12 QBs this week, except for Aaron Rodgers, who didn’t need to throw the ball much to continue owning the Bears. But let’s go back to Hurts – this week was his 6th consecutive game this season (i.e.. all of them) where he has scored at least 21 fantasy points. He is the QB4 on the year, and is just about 10 points behind the leader, Patrick Mahomes. Hurts may continue to turn in lackluster passing performances over and over again, but his fantasy value is undeniable and he’s clearly a must-start every week. He has matchups coming up against Detroit and both New York teams before his bye in Week 14, so there are some good matchups coming up for the player with the highest floor in all of fantasy football.

 

9 Kickers in Double Digits

 

This week, 9 kickers scored double-digit fantasy points, and only 3 of them were owned in the drinkfive.com fantasy league. Leading the way was Matthew Wright, owned in just 1% of Fleaflicker leagues. Wright broke a streak of 5 consecutive games for the Jaguars in which they did not convert a FG. Wright went 3/3 on field goals in the game in London, including a 54-yard masterpiece that had Kevin Harlan fooled and resulted in a really great call. Wright also kicked the game winner as time expired, snapping the Jaguars losing streak at 20 games – a streak which started following Week 1 of last year, which was their only win of the season. Despite it being a lower week for kicker scoring – nobody made more than 3 field goals in any game so far in Week 6, there was only 1 missed extra point across the league, a far cry from the 13 extra points that were missed last week.

 

11 Points Allowed

 

Congrats to the top D/ST of the week, the Los Angeles Rams. Their 16 points on the week increased their season total points by 66%, showing that you really just need to be playing matchups when it comes to selecting a D/ST. The Rams managed to take the top spot by just beating the snot out of the Giants with 3 INTs, 4 sacks and 1 fumble recovery to go with just 11 points allowed. In fact, the 38-11 victory completed an NFL scorigami. If you haven’t heard of a scorigami, check it out here. This is the first of the season, which is probably rare since there were 12 all of last season. I suppose fewer and fewer each year is the nature of a scorigami. The last one we had was the Steelers-Browns playoff game last year which ended 48-37. Can you tell I quickly ran out of things to say about the Rams yesterday? Their beatdown of the Giants was about as ho-hum as it gets.

 

30 WRs with 10+ Points

 

Week 5 saw a solid 30 wide receivers put up at least 10 fantasy points, which is just a middle of the road total for the year. What sticks out to me is that only 5 players had at least 100 receiving yards on the day, showing that half PPR and full PPR as the new standards are here to stay for anyone that loves points in fantasy football, which is probably all of us. Previously this year, the fewest number of WRs with 100+ receiving yards was 10, which happened twice. Leading the way last week was CeeDee Lamb with 149 yards – 56 of those yards came on the Cowboys final drive which took place in OT, capped off by Lamb’s 35-yard TD reception to walk-off the game. Honorable mention for a WR stat monster goes to Ja’Marr Chase, who is 30th among WRs with only 27 receptions, but 4th overall in receiving yards with 553. He has 19 fewer receptions than the 3 men ahead of him, all of whom are sitting on 46 receptions for the year.

 

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Week 6 Injury Apocalypse
13
October

Week 6 Injury Apocalypse

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL
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Bring out your dead! It's one of the worst weeks in recent memory in the NFL for injuries (please don't count them on me), so let's have a not-so-quick roundup of all of the fantasy relevant guys who we need to monitor going in to Week 6.

 

Quarterbacks

 

  • Russell Wilson - Wilson’s injury on Thursday night prevented him from completing the game. He has a torn tendon as well as a fracture/dislocation of his middle finger on his throwing hand. He had surgery to repair it and is expected to be out until Week 10 at the earliest. Seattle has a bye in Week 9. In relief, Geno Smith immediately led the Seahawks on a 98 yard scoring drive, so that was encouraging. The Seahawks fantasy players remain startable, but get a bit of a downgrade across the board. Geno Smith should be picked up in superflex leagues as bye weeks are going to start hitting everybody.

 

  • Daniel Jones - Jones suffered a concussion and was visibly woozy/dazed/stumbling on the field after the play. He was later carted off the field and Mike Glennon finished the game. Glennon finished the game with enough passing action to encourage you to start Kadarius Toney, and possibly Sterling Shepard if he returns. Jones did not practice today but is apparently “on track with everything” according to head coach Joe Judge. Jones returning is a bump for Toney, Booker and Shepard, the only likely fantasy starters on the Giants.

 

  • Trey Lance - Lance suffered a sprained knee on Sunday. So far, his timeline is very murky because the 49ers have a bye this week, so are not required to report any injury statuses. Jimmy G could return based on Lance’s play as a passer this year so far, so this situation is clear as mud. Pay attention to who’s practicing with the ones next week to see who the starter will be in Week 7.

 

  • Tom Brady - Oh if wishing could make it true. But seriously, Tom Brady hurt his thumb and has a quick turnaround on Thursday night. All reports indicate that he’s not 100% but will be starting tomorrow. Right now that offense is working at nearly peak efficiency, so even 75% of Tom Brady should result in plenty of fantasy production from the normal guys.

 

Running Backs

 

  • Saquon Barkley - Barkley had a sprained ankle that swelled up pretty quick and was on display for TV on Sunday. Nice camera work, guys. He apparently dodged any major injury and we do not have a timetable for his return. Since this is the case, you should go into Week 6 assuming that he will not play and it will be Devontae Booker in his place, who scored 2 TDs in relief in Week 5.

 

  • Damien Harris - Harris exited Sunday’s game twice with a chest injury. He also fumbled on the goal line, but was still given work, showing just how much Belichick thinks of the other RBs on his roster. Harris did not practice today but is day to day at the moment, so he will probably be fine to go on Sunday since he avoided a significant injury. Keep an eye on his practice status, and he’s an RB2/Flex option if he starts on Sunday against the Cowboys.

 

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire - CEH has been put on the IR list already with an MCL sprain, so he’s out for at least 3 weeks. Darrel Williams should be the main RB in his place, getting almost all of the work going forward. Jerick McKinnon is also available for the Chiefs, but he only has 4 total touches on the season, so he is firmly a backup to Williams for now.

 

  • Christian McCaffrey - CMC was practicing last week and came down to a game time decision and ultimately he did not play on Sunday. This week was his originally targeted return time, so I like his chances to return in Week 6 against the Vikings. He practiced again today. If he goes, he’s going to get his normal workload. If he doesn’t, then you can safely roll Chuba Hubbard out there for one more week. Keep an eye on the inactives ahead of gametime before making the final decision on this one. 

 

  • Chris Carson - Carson missed Week 5 with a neck injury, but avoided the IR which should mean that he’s back soon. He did not practice today, but Pete Carroll said that the plan is for him to return to practice tomorrow. With Russell Wilson out for a while, it’s a great spot for the Seattle RBs to get even more carries than normal. If Carson cannot go, it’ll be Alex Collins for another week - he received 15 carries last week and has Flex value against the Steelers on Sunday night.

 

  • Joe Mixon / Samaje Perine - These two split carries in Sunday’s game 12/15 with more of a 60/30 snap percentage split. However, after the game, Perine was placed on the covid list and that sets up Mixon to have a full workload on this Sunday against the lowly Lions. If you have Mixon, it should be back to normal for him. Perine is droppable in most leagues.

 

  • Dalvin Cook - Cook missed the game in Week 5, and Alexander Mattison proved once again to be the best backup RB in fantasy football. Cook did practice all week before being ruled out, so even though he practiced today, it’s no guarantee that he’ll be starting this week. The Vikings are on bye in Week 7, so it might be that they hold him out through the bye week just to be sure.

 

Wide Receivers

 

  • Tyreek Hill - Hill was reported to have a knee injury which turned out to be a quad contusion. He is not practicing today, and obviously a leg injury on this speedster is something that needs to be treated seriously. Keep an eye on his status through the week. If he does not practice, I do not expect him to play on Sunday. Their matchup against Washington is juicy though - they’re giving up the 4th most points to opposing WRs, so I would start him if he is going to play. If he does not, Mecole Hardman, who was second on the team with 12 targets last week, should be the main beneficiary. Travis Kelce will be heavily involved as usual and Darrel Williams should see plenty of targets. It’ll be up to one of the many other targets on the team to step up - 6 other players saw 2 or fewer targets on Sunday. Perhaps a place for Josh Gordon to step up? Unlikely, but it’s fun to feed into the hype.

 

  • Kenny Golladay - Here’s our token Giants entry for this position as well. They really got battered on Sunday. Golladay suffered a hyperextended knee, and he was finally getting warmed up this season on the Giants too. He’s expected to miss at least week 6, but was not placed on the IR. Kadarius Toney is the new hotness on the team, and Sterling Shepard could be coming back with Darius Slayton, this muddling the target share for the Giants. Daniel Jones’ status is also an issue for the WRs.

 

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster - You know an injury is serious when the team immediately signs whoever is on the top of the free agent pile - this time it was Anthony Miller. Juju is going to have shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of 2021. Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool will continue to operate as the 1-2 on that offense. Juju was not contributing much this year, and was not fantasy relevant anymore, anyways.

 

  • A.J. Brown / Julio Jones - A.J. Brown returned last week and was on the field for 64% of snaps. He didn’t have any setbacks, so he should be back above 80% next week. Julio missed his second straight game last week and it was a hamstring injury, the typical kind of injury he’s had all his career. He is practicing today, so he might be back, but I’m not enthusiastic about starting him immediately once he returns. For now this team is all Derrick Henry and there’s not enough production for two starting WRs anyways.

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