Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Every year when it gets close to draft time, websites are flooded with articles about who you should and shouldn't pick for your fantasy team. The thing is, unless you're in an auction league and have the ability to take a player at any time based on a value that you assign, you can really only target certain players that have a perceived value to you greater than where they are currently being taken in the draft (in other words, their ADP or Average Draft Position). It's my goal in the next few weeks to go through some fantasy relevant players at each position and provide a short argument for why they should be targeted above their current ADPs. Remember, if the team managers in your league have above-average football intelligence, you will likely have to select these players (and any others you have your eye on) several picks earlier than their ADPs. For the purposes of this article we'll be using the ADP statistics from recent mock drafts (10-team standard league) at Fantasy Football Calculator (a tool that we often use) and you can access that updated data here: http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=standard&year=2014&teams=10&view=graph&pos=all.

Kelvin Benjamin

(Current ADP - 12.08)

I know, I know. I'm supposed to follow my own advice and temper my expectations for rookies. Especially for rookies like Kelvin, who has had problems in the past specific to dropped passes and a limited route tree. What you can't deny, however, are the favorable comparisons to guys like Alshon Jeffery and Plaxico Burress. Benjamin's measurables are immense: 6'5", 240lbs, 35-inch arms and a 4.5ish 40. Yikes. I'm going to be looking closely at Benjamin's play in upcoming preseason games to gauge his comfort level with the routes he is being asked to run, but from training camp reports we are hearing nothing but great things. In fact, it appears as though he has not yet dropped a ball at all. Finally, Benjamin looks to have no real competition for the starting WR role in Carolina. That said, there is a little talent there in Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant and of course Greg Olsen (who will likely end up leading the team in receptions). In fact, I tend to think that the Panthers' receiving core is actually better than it was last year.. Steve Smith showed a large decline in healthy game-to-game production last year (not to mention that his 5'9" frame is a little small for today's NFL) and Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn have never been standouts (and are easily replaced by Cotchery and Avant in the short term). Bottom Line: the rumors of Cam Newton's demise have been greatly exaggerated and adding a freakishly athletic receiver to the mix should only be a boon to his numbers. While I'm not predicting a top 20 season for Benjamin, I strongly believe that he will finish inside the top 40 wide receivers (if only because of his immediate use in red-zone situations) which would be the right value to select him in the 10th or 11th rounds.

Marvin Jones

(Current ADP - 13.06)

Marvin Jones stunned the fantasy world last season in his 2nd year when he scored 10 total TDs (including 4 vs. NYJ in Week 8). Even taking out that game (which could be considered a statistical outlier) he improved on his rookie year production by 500+ yards and 5 TDs. And all of this while sharing time on the field with Mohamed Sanu. Although Jones only just came off the PUP list (he had an ankle injury that was not considered serious), he looks to be locked in as the starting receiver for 2014 opposite A.J. Green. This absence from training camp could explain the current low draft position, but don't let it fool you - he will surely be on the rise over the next few weeks as news continues to trickle out from Cincinnati. Most likely, Jones should average between 4-6 receptions per game (I'm predicting around 70 total) which should increase his total receiving yards toward 1000. In other words, even if he doesn't match the 10 TD's from last year his stock should still hover around the same value (he finished 2013 as the #24 WR overall in standard scoring leagues). Even a slight regression in TD's from 2013 then would still put him at the bottom of the top 30 WR's. We're talking about guys here like Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Kendall Wright, etc. and all of those guys are being drafted right now between rounds 7 and 10. With an ADP of 13.06, Marvin Jones is a prospect that is still being undervalued in rounds 10-12. Wait as late as you can to pick him up.. but not too late! Bottom Line: playing behind A.J. Green will only continue to help Jones.. watch out for a rising ADP over the next few weeks and catch him while you can.

Mike Wallace

(Current ADP - 8.01)

Reports from training camp are saying that Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace are still struggling to find a good chemistry on deep routes. Well, just remember that this is still preseason and words fly around like footballs this time of year. Wallace performed better in the last six games of the 2013 season than earlier in the year which makes it a little easier to trust him as a solid fantasy commodity, and new OC Bill Lazor (formerly working as the QB coach under Chip Kelly on the Eagles) has vowed to use Wallace all over the field rather than simply as a deep threat. We know that Wallace is fast and can be productive, and on this team there should be a fair amount of playing catch-up as the Miami defense finished the season in the bottom half of the NFL. Wallace will fill the Desean Jackson role in Lazor's offense and whether or not he and Tannehill are hanging out on their days off, he will exceed his production from 2013. I Expect Wallace to at least more closely approach if not get back to the numbers he had as an instrumental part of the Steelers offense (1,000+ yards, 8+ TDs) which would put him squarely into the top 20 receivers when we look back on the 2014 season. Finally, the Dolphins actually have the most favorable schedule for WRs (calculated here: http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm?type=e&sortby=WR from 2013 season data). Bottom Line: Mike Wallace had a hiccup of a season due to a few reasons (change of teams, coaching staff, new quarterback, etc) but despite that he still finished as a top 30 receiver.. look for his return to form this year.

Kenny Stills

(Current ADP - 12.10)

Last season Kenny Stills was a one-trick pony, but oh what a nice trick it was. As a rookie, Stills led the league in yards per reception (20.0) and had only one drop while finding the end zone five times. With the departure of Lance Moore and Darren Sproles, there are a lot of targets (143) that need to be filled. There has been talk at camp about Nick Toon and Brandin Cooks, but they are really fighting for the third spot, with Stills solidly in the second spot as long as he's healthy. He will at least split those 143 targets, giving Stills a solid 70+ this year. Taking into consideration Stills' low drop rate, a 60 reception season should net him over 1100 yards. It will look a lot like DeSean Jackson's second and third seasons (2009 & 2010). Stills has the potential to be a solid WR3, especially with a QB like Drew Brees under center. Bottom Line: with an ADP of 12.10, Stills holds fantastic value even a round or two earlier.

Markus Wheaton

(Current ADP - not drafted in standard leagues)

Of course it's difficult to put faith in a guy that only recorded 64 yards in his rookie campaign. That's what these sort of articles are all about though, right? First, Markus Wheaton is a prototypical burner receiver with a 4.4 40 time and good hands - the reports out of training camp this year have been ridiculous, to put it lightly. "He can be that guy that teams look at in the first four games and are like, 'Who is that dude running past people?'" said Ike Taylor, who's been going against Wheaton at practices (from Rotoworld - http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/8406/markus-wheaton). Second, the Steelers lost Emmanuel Sanders to the Broncos in the off-season and did not look to replace him from outside sources (they drafted a developmental project WR in Martavis Bryant and picked up Lance Moore (possible split slot duty and Cotchery replacement) and Darrius Heyward-Bey who will provide some depth at the position). It was known last year that Wheaton would have had a bigger role if it wasn't for the two broken fingers that sidelined him for the majority of the 2013 season and it appears that the starting role opposite Antonio Brown is his to lose now. With the Steelers going no-huddle and after a very impressive offensive resurgence in the final weeks last year, it's pretty ridiculous that Wheaton is not even being taken off the board in standard redraft leagues. That said, the story here is that not many people who are casual fans of the game are familiar with the name. Bottom Line: Look for Wheaton's ADP to *exist* in a few weeks, but be sure to draft him in the late rounds for a value pick that could prove to be solid WR4 production. 

Although I might not share their opinions exactly, quite a few of my friends and colleagues have balked a little at the way that The Leftovers has presented itself over the course of the season so far. Fortunately, the latest episode, "Guest", seems to buck that trend and show us a side of the HBO series that I've been waiting to see. Among the grief-laden population of Mapleton and the thick fog of violence and depression I've been most enjoying the moments of levity and real life that pop up when you least expect them to. Ok, ok - The Leftovers is not a comedy, at least not in the familiar sense, but it is noted that Tom Perotta's novel (that the series is based on) was originally penned more along those lines than what it eventually turned out to be. Personally, I think that a lot of that seems to be seeping into the drama now.. albeit between some particularly hard to watch scenes (e.g., Gladys's death by stoning) that tend to root themselves a bit more firmly in our minds as we watch the show.

Anyway, "Guest" continues the trend started by Damon Lindelof back in his Lost days of focusing episodes on only one character and thusly delving far deeper into the character's psyche and motivations than can be accomplished over the course of a normal program that takes turns with multiple characters being the focal point. So, Nora Durst.. we've known for some time now that she has lost almost her entire immediate family (those particular odds being one in 128,000 apparently) to the Sudden Departure, harbors feelings of terrible guilt and remorse, carries a revolver with her in her purse and has a brother - the Reverend Matt Jamison. This episode, though, dives headlong into her day-to-day life - specifically into what are probably the most important few days that she has had since the day when her family disappeared. Through her work, Nora is invited to a conference to be a representative of the Department of Sudden Departures and speak on a panel. She had done this the previous year as well but this time would end up much more chaotic and ultimately rewarding for her.

But before we get there, it would certainly be remiss not to mention what happened before Nora left for the conference (and apparently at least one time previous to that as well). We knew Nora was slightly off the beaten path but for her to hire people to shoot her in the chest while wearing a Kevlar vest - just to experience something close to peacefulness through death.. yeah, crazy. But so is everyone else in this world - just look at the game that the High School kids were playing in the first episode - Fuck, Burn or Choke? Really? Yeah so we as viewers do need to understand as has been pounded into our heads by the first several episodes, that this new world in the wake of the Sudden Departure is an awful one.

During the conference, Nora runs into all sorts of trials and tribulations. First, someone has taken her badge and we find out later that there is a woman who impersonated Nora Durst to make some kind of a statement.. conspiracy theories! Who would have though it? We definitely need more of this going forward in The Leftovers. Second, Nora meets a married guy who works for the company called Loved Ones (whose commercial we see at the beginning of the episode). A little alcohol, drugs and craziness later, Nora has actually had a good time.. and in the meantime we are treated to some of the best scenes that The Leftovers has ever shared with us onscreen. Thank God for martinis and drugs that are as yet unapproved by the FDA. 

The whole theme of this episode is change. Nora was really one of the people most affected by the Sudden Departure and she showed it. From the unchanged paper towel roll to the trips to the grocery store, Nora was attempting to live life as though nothing had changed when she absolutely knew that everything had. Internal conflict at its best. Because Nora didn't have her badge, she was given one that said 'Guest' instead. During the party scenes, everyone only knew her as 'Guest'.. and she loved it. Separating her own individual identity from the poor woman that had lost her entire family only really happened, though, when she ended up meeting with Holy Wayne. Through someone at the conference she was drawn to an apartment building in a bad part of town, asked to pay $1,000 and then admitted to see Wayne. Two things: Wow, Nora has no problem parting with her money, huh? Also, Wayne's super power is hugs. There are two theories here, I suppose.. either Wayne is the most empathetic character ever in a TV series since Deanna Troy on Star Trek or he has some sort of power that lets him take people's grief from them - supernatural or otherwise. 

Bottom line is that now Nora is bereft of her long-held feelings of depression and grief. The Leftovers makes sure that we know.. showing us scenes of the teacher that she was previously stalking (because she allegedly was having an affair with her husband) and grocery shopping for only herself and no longer for the people that have disappeared from her life. I have to say, this episode was my favorite of the season and I'm really hoping that the trajectory of the show continues. The fact that I can go from absolute horror at the beginning of one episode to a satisfied grin at the end of the next speaks volumes about the quality of this series. Can't wait for the next one!

The Leftovers really puzzles me. I still can't figure out (along with everyone else, I'm sure) whether there is any sort-of of twist here (supernatural or otherwise), or if Lindelof and Co. are just winding us along this long road of miserable people and terrible circumstance. Either way, I can't stop watching this show because it keeps surprising me. Yeah, the surprises are mostly of a vicious and sadistic nature.. but hey, they say that art imitates life, right? I can easily see all of these events unfolding in modern-day reality after an event such as one that happens here. Maybe that's the whole point.

Anyway, "Gladys" takes us on a journey that centers around Patty and Laurie after the brutal murder of Gladys by stoning. The opening scene shows Patty nodding to Gladys in her office as if in silent agreement. We know that Gladys seemed to be higher up in the ranks of the Guilty Remnant but the whole order of things is very much left open to interpretation still. In my opinion, this opening scene is trying to make us believe that Gladys was ready for this and/or that Patty is actually behind the whole sequence of events that lead to Gladys's death. There just seems to be a general foreboding in the air and a heaviness to Gladys's nod. In addition, right before she was abducted from in front of the convenience store (they had gone to buy more cigarettes, it seems) Gladys took out a cigarette but hesitated in smoking it.. rapping it against her pad as if waiting for something. I'm not sure that I believe this to be the case, but we're still trying to piece together the motivations of these characters. The one thing that makes me think this could be a false path were Gladys's last words when she was near death in the woods. Spending your last moments begging for your life and breaking the vows of the Guilty Remnant are not the actions of someone who was fully aware of what was about to happen.

Patty takes Laurie out on an unannounced trip where they can be alone and have a private conversation. She allows Laurie to shower, dress in normal clothes, sleep in a comfortable bed, etc and even invites her to speak once more, over a french toast and scrambled egg breakfast. Ultimately, Laurie stays silent and seems to be praised by Patty for doing so. Patty says something memorable toward the end of their conversation, "Remember what you told me to do in the last session, before everything changed?".. this seems to allude to a previous relationship that these women had together. Perhaps Laurie was a therapist of some sort, or otherwise guiding or counseling Patty? Either way, it has something to do with 'Neil' and the doggybag that was delivered (presumably on his doorstep) filled with something (presumably feces?). Yikes. Basically, we learn that Patty may be even more nuts that we give her credit for. Looking forward to more on this.

Back in Mapleton, Kevin is once again faced with a personal crisis. Although we seem to learn that Dean is officially, in fact, a real person and not a figment of Kevin's imagination, the Chief's missing shirts send him into a tailspin at the end of the episode. Kevin actually physically threatens the employee at the laundromat and forces him to look more closely for his shirts. Wow, Kev.. looks like some anger management courses would be advisable. In the end, he does get his shirts back.. or are they actually his? I think we are to assume that they are his shirts. Every time it looks like the Chief may be crazy, he doubles back and reconfirms that he is not. We definitely need to learn more about his father and what happened to their whole family directly after the Sudden Departure. The way this show is going, maybe in The Leftovers Season 3?

We don't learn much, but come away with the same sinking feeling in our stomachs as in the previous episodes. Really.. this show is like eating a really delicious, but really spicy dish. Once you've started you have to see it through but not without some degree of pain and regret. I hope, as always, that in addition to the jarring moments that fill the first several episodes, we can advance the overall story arc a little more next week.