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Three weeks are in the books, and that means that it's time for us to check out some player trends. After all, in a row does a trend make. Or at least that's what Dave says. Anyways, there's been a ton of points this season, so let's take this time to look at the players who are consistently improving on a weekly basis. These are guys who are both studs that you might expect to see atop the fantasy rankings, and guys who are moving their way up from the depths of the preseason ADP charts.

James Robinson (RB-JAX) – Wk 1 vs IND – 9.5, Wk 2 @ TEN – 19.5, Wk 3 vs MIA – 27.9. Robinson was the lone bright spot on the Jaguars last week. He has trended up for three weeks in a row in lots of categories – total yards, total points, touchdowns scored and even receptions. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, he is in the top 20 for both carries and receptions. He’s the overall RB5 on the season. There’s almost no competition for him at his position on the Jaguars, so Robinson looks like he needs to be an every week starter. Coming up, Jacksonville goes to Cincy and Houston, followed by playing Detroit at home before their bye week. All of these teams are in the top 7 when it comes to giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Now is the time to try and acquire Robinson, as his value is only bound to go up.

Jerick McKinnon (RB-SF) – Wk1 vs ARI – 11.9, Wk 2 @ NYJ – 13.7, Wk 3 @ NYG – 15.2. McKinnon has scored a touchdown in all 3 games so far this season, a great trend for fantasy football. It may even hold for a while considering how banged up the 49ers backfield is. He was used sparingly in the first two weeks, getting only 9 total touches, though he was also used in the return game a bit. With nobody else to take carries from him last week, he had 17 total touches. That’s a usage rate that I expect to continue as long as Coleman and Mostert are sidelined. Even when they come back, it seems as though McKinnon will see some touches, and if his knack for scoring touchdowns continues, it would be silly to keep him on the sidelines. Coming up the 49ers have 3 straight home games against Philly, Miami and the Rams, all of whom are middle of the pack when it comes to giving up points to opposing RBs.

Justin Jefferson (WR-MIN) – Wk 1 vs GB – 3.6, Wk 2 @ IND – 5.9, Wk 3 vs TEN – 27. Jefferson was the Vikings 1^st round pick this year and he has been thrown right into the offense. He’s increased his receptions, targets and yards each week, topping out last week with 7 receptions on 9 targets for 175 yards. He also found the end zone and his 27 points made him the WR2 on the week. There is a Stefon Diggs sized hole on the Vikings offense, and Jefferson looks like he might fill it very nicely. Coming up are games at Houston and Seattle, followed by Atlanta at home and then the bye week. Houston is halfway respectable against the WR, but Seattle and Atlanta are giving up the 1^st and 3^rd most points to opposing WRs, respectively. It’s time to get Jefferson on your team and into your lineup.

Keenan Allen (WR-LAC) – Wk 1 @ CIN – 5.7, Wk 2 vs KC – 13.1, Wk 3 vs CAR – 23.7. Allen is known as one of the players with the largest share of his team’s targets on an annual basis. He is currently tied with DeAndre Hopkins with a league leading 37 targets. His targets, receptions and yardage have all gone up week to week. Last week he added on a touchdown to make him WR4 on the week and WR12 on the season. Allen catching 13 passes on 19 targets from rookie Justin Herbert is a great sign as well. The distribution of the targets can suddenly shift when a new QB enters the scene, however it looks like Herbert is firmly focused on his top WR now. Upcoming games in Tampa and New Orleans, followed by hosting the Jets will all be tough. Tampa gives up the 12^th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, and they’re the least stingy of that group. I guess we finally found something that the Jets don’t suck at. Still, Allen is a solid WR1 and needs to be in your lineup every week, regardless of who is at QB for the Chargers.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

16 Point Lead

It seems that in Atlanta, no lead is safe. Most recently infamous for blowing a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI (which still fuels memes around the internet), the Falcons have now blown back-to-back games where they led by at least 16 points. Dan Quinn has achieved the impossible – he’s become less popular in Atlanta than Covid-19. In two consecutive possessions late in the 4^th quarter, the Falcons ran the ball just once and netted -4 yards total in those drives. The second drive of that sequence featured 3 straight incompletions with less than 5 minutes remaining in the game, burning off a whole 11 seconds. Perhaps it’s too early in the season to fire a coach, but I cannot imagine a seat that is hotter than Dan Quinn’s right now, especially considering his offense is playing well for 3.5 quarters of football every Sunday.

75 TDs

This offseason was all about letting Russ cook, and that’s exactly what he’s done. Russell Wilson is now the first NFL QB to throw for at least 4 TDs in each of his first three games of the season. If there was an MVP for September, he would be the unanimous choice. On the season, he already has 14 passing TDs, on pace for a Peyton Manning crushing 75 on the season (the current record sits at 55). Of course, Patrick Mahomes was on pace to break this record back in 2018, but only managed (“only”) 50 TDs. Wilson is slightly ahead of Mahomes’ pace – he was at 13 after 3 games, and only managed one over the next two weeks. I think it’s certainly plausible that Wilson can keep up a record-breaking pace for quite a while. To go along with this, he’s also the #1 player in fantasy football, already cracking 100 points on the season. #LetRussCook

12 Total TDs

Right on the heel of Wilson’s great start is Josh Allen taking the Bills to 3-0. On the season, Allen has 10 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs, 1,038 passing yards and has totaled 94.92 fantasy points, good for 2^nd overall. If it was not for Wilson, then Allen might be at the top of the MVP discussion, alongside Aaron Rodgers – the last of the top QBs without a turnover on the season. Allen has shown some vast improvement this season. His first two years, his best completion rate was only 58.8%, but he currently sits at 71.1% on the season and has only thrown one interception so far. He’s already matched his TD total from his rookie season, and he’s halfway to matching 2019 through 3 games. Allen is perhaps the most improved player and is the kind of fantasy pick that will help people win leagues – Allen’s ADP put him at QB8 and was being drafted sometime in the 8^th round in most drafts.

260 Kicking Yards

One of my new favorite changes in 2020 for fantasy football is the ability to directly award kickers for their exact yardage, instead of truncating the number and just giving 3, 4, 5, etc. This allowed Stephen Gostkowski to really max out his score on Sunday, where he kicked 6 field goals for a total of 260 yards, and threw an extra point in there for good measure. Under the old scoring system, he would have had 25 points, but yesterday, he put up 27 points, which is good for 1^st place among kickers by nearly 10 points. His 27 points Sunday are more points than 8 of the top 20 kickers have scored all season long. I don’t often devote an entry in this column for a kicker, but perhaps more performances like this one will change that. Mason Crosby deserves an honorable mention. His 41.6 points on the season put him just behind Gostkowski, but his perfect 7 for 7 FGs and 13 for 13 XPs certainly deserve praise. Until next week, have fun picking a kicker – 8 of the top 13 kickers this week are owned in only 26% or less of Fleaflicker leagues.

-3.33 Points per Week

Usually, you want to stream your D/ST against a team that struggles, and more on that in a minute, but let’s first marvel at the team you do not want your D/ST to go against. In 3 weeks, the D/ST going up against the Green Bay Packers have scored -4, -3 and -3 points. The Packers have scored 36 points or more in every game so far, and have only given up one sack each of the last two weeks. Perhaps this information isn’t that helpful to you to win at fantasy football, but it’s certainly something to marvel at, and that’s the real point of this column. If you want points, start whoever is playing the Jets, like the Colts in Week 3, who put up 26 points from 3 turnovers and 2 TDs. Or stream whoever is going against the Eagles, who have seen Wentz give up 2 INTs in every game so far this season, to go along with 11 total sacks. It won’t get any better for the Eagles, who now face the 49ers, Steelers and Ravens in their next 3 games.  

Mike Davis (CAR) – So, it’s the end of the world as McCaffrey owners know it, and they won’t be fine for 4-6 weeks until he returns. In the meantime, Mike Davis was a hot commodity on the waiver wire. Davis could hardly get anything going last year, and his 8 receptions in garbage time last week surpassed his catch total for all of 2019. Aside from garbage time, which the Panthers are likely to find themselves in most weeks, I don’t expect Davis to be able to do very much at all. This week, the Panthers have to travel across the country to LA and play the Chargers, a team that seems to play up and down to their competition. Down is the keyword this week, I expect this game to mostly be a lot of bleh with some meh thrown in. I don’t expect much out of Davis this week, or at all while McCaffrey is out to be honest. He is not a suitable replacement in your lineup for CMC and you need to rely on the bench depth that you drafted instead of a desperation waiver wire pickup.

David Johnson (HOU) – Johnson briefly, very briefly, reminded us on opening night of the player he used to be. Last week was a different story. Given the same opportunities (11 carries, 4 targets each game), he managed a mere 50 yards from scrimmage against the Ravens. This week gets no easier when the Texans travel the Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense completely shut down Saquon Barkley in week 1 and are giving up the 4^th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. With the Texans struggling this year after inexplicably trading away their best player not named DeShaun Watson, it’s going to take some time and more than an RB past his prime to fix this team. David Johnson is a bad fantasy start this week.

Jordan Reed (SF) – Reed found the end zone twice on Sunday and reminded us all of better times, like way back in 2015 when he could score TDs and we didn’t have to wear masks everywhere. If George Kittle sits, then Reed is going to be his replacement. While Kittle may be healthier than last week, he might still sit considering all the chirping that the 49ers have done regarding the turf at Metlife Stadium, where they played last week and will play again this week. This leaves a perfect storm of Jordan Reed completely returning to the player that we know him to be – a guy who gets injured all the time. Reed seems to be perfectly set up to get bitten by the turf monster if he does get the start this week, and I freely admit that I am not using a lot of numbers to make this call. Just don’t play Jordan Reed because he’s going to let you down as he has in many years past.

Justin Herbert (LAC) – Herbert had an impressive game last week when he was thrust into the starting role just before kickoff. Without any time to think about it, he scrambled well and threw the ball with a rocket arm, if not perfect accuracy. He did seem to make a couple of rookie mistakes, like the INT he threw late in the game to let the Chiefs back in it. This week he faces the Panthers and surprisingly, they have given up the 2^nd fewest points to opposing QBs. Perhaps this is due to the fact that they’re letting everybody and their mother run rampant over them. I expect a whole week to think about the start to make Herbert look more like a typical rookie, and for the Chargers to really lean on the run game. So, Herbert was only relevant in 2 QB leagues. Definitely roster him, but I wouldn’t dive in and start him until he puts a couple of good games together.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Once or twice a year, Matty Ice is going to deliver you a proper dud. The Bears are giving up the 4^th fewest points to opposing QBs, so even though Ryan has had a good streak to start the season, I think he’s going to run into a wall this week in Chicago. The Bears limited Matt Stafford to 1 TD in Week 1, and kept Daniel Jones under 10 fantasy points last week, so they’ve had a strong showing every week so far. The only thing that Ryan might have going for him is that he will probably throw the crap out of the ball to try and get out of the 0-2 hole the Falcons find themselves in. This is just going to lead to turnovers and more misery as the Falcons find themselves as the best 0-3 team, and the Bears will find themselves as the worst 3-0 team.

Dion Lewis (NYG) – Saquon is done for the season, and the Giants signed Devonta Freeman, but he won’t be ready yet. So, in Week 3 you can roll with Dion Lewis as a spot start. This is unlikely to last longer than a week or two, so if he has a big week, go ahead and put him on the trading block. Lewis found the end zone last week and had 14 touches against a tough Bears defense. This week, he’ll be facing the 49ers who have their own slew of injury problems. Week 1, they gave up double digit points to both Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. I expect Lewis to be in the 15+ touch range this week, and he’ll get work mostly based on the fact that he is the only 3^rd down back on the team, and I expect the Giants to find themselves in 3^rd down often.

Joshua Kelley (LAC) – While not replacing anyone directly with injury (yes, this is a stretch), the Chargers did lose their starting QB and will need to tweak their game script with Herbert taking the reins. He will lean on a strong run game for now. Both Kelley and Ekeler are tied with 35 carries on the season, good for 6^th most in the league. This week they will feast on the awful Panthers defense who are currently giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. With Kelley getting even more carries than Ekeler in Week 2, I’m not hesitant to ride with a rookie this early in the season. Ekeler has always succeeded as the second guy, and this really appears to be a 1A/1B situation they’re setting up for the Chargers.

Jerick McKinnon (SF) – McKinnon has 6 carries this season, his first since 2017. Finally healthy, he’s basically the last man standing in the 49ers backfield for now. Tevin Coleman has been put on the IR and Raheem Mostert is likely to sit this week, so it’s McKinnon all the way. He already has 2 touchdowns this season and a 55 yard run last week, showing that he’s got the talent to take advantage of the opportunities that Kyle Shanahan creates for this offense. The Giants have given up 2 good fantasy games already this season, one to backup Benny Snell and one to David Montgomery, so there’s nothing to fear in terms of this week’s matchup, aside from perhaps turf monsters, which the 49ers seem overly concerned with.

Tre’Quan Smith (NO) – Last week, with Michael Thomas out, Smith had 5 receptions on 7 targets for 86 yards, all respectable. There’s going to be plenty of extra volume to go around if Michael Thomas sits another week. The Saints play the Packers this week, who have probably been the most dominant team in the NFC. However, if there’s one thing that they don’t do incredibly well, it’s limit WRs. The Packers are giving up the 9^th most points to opposing WRs. While the Saints will surely lean on Alvin Kamara for a majority of their offense, they will still need to throw the ball a lot to keep up with Aaron Rodgers. I expect the Saints to play very well and clean up their sloppy play from Monday night. They are 10-1 following a loss since 2017, so I expect lots of fantasy fireworks in this game from both sides. Smith is a good option to slide in your lineup if you’ve been bitten by the injury bug.

Dalton Schultz (DAL) – Going in to last week’s game, Schultz had 14 career receptions. He added 9 more on Sunday on 10 targets and turned that into 88 yards and 1 TD. He did fumble once, but it seems like the Cowboys will be sticking with him due to Blake Jarwin’s torn ACL. This week is a big game against Seattle, one that could very well mirror last week’s script where Dallas finds themselves playing catchup. The Seahawks defense has been stout against the TEs so far this year, but they also haven’t faced much high profile competition yet. Dak Prescott is playing very well this season, so you need to trust in Dak to get the ball to the TE. The top players at TE have been so random this year (Smith, Fant, Gesicki, Reed, Hockenson all in the top 10), why not Schultz too?