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It's time to look forward to the next several weeks and pick out some busts. These are guys that all have very tough schedules coming up, and are top 15 at their position through 5 weeks. My suggestion to you is to get the trade discussion going in your league and try to unload some of these players to your league mates who may lack the foresight that you do.

Ryan Tannehill, QB-TEN – On the season, Ryan Tannehill has the 8^th most points per game, turning in his best performance just last night. Tannehill has had some easy matchups, so far all of his games have come against teams that are giving up top 12 points to opposing QBs. This bust has a lot to do with his matchups coming up, but I also want to point out that he is trailing behind many stat categories that he was doing very well last season. So far, his completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and QB rating are all lower than last year’s numbers. Now, he has 6 straight games coming up against teams that are all very tough against opposing QBs. Five of those six teams are giving up the 10^th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs or better. The worst team there is the Steelers, haven’t given up a 20 point game to opposing QBs so far this season, keeping all QBs below 300 yards and giving up no more than 2 TDs in each game. Yes, you’ve accidentally eaten the bye week on Tannehill at this point, but it’s time to find someone with better matchups. Sell high on Tannehill while you can this week.

Raheem Mostert, RB-SF – Mostert has been in and out of the lineup this season, just like in years past. Through his 3 games, Mostert is the 6^th best RB by points per game, averaging 18.1 points in his 3 games this year. The 49ers offense is falling apart and has not had any consistent QB play this season. He’s also trending down in points, though he hasn’t been a total disappointment just yet. However, his matchups coming up are going to get much tougher. Games against the Rams, Seahawks, and Patriots will be very tough to rack up big numbers. His best matchup coming up is against the Packers, but that game is on a Thursday night and I don’t like counting on anything that might happen on a Thursday in the NFL. Mostert still has a bye week coming up as well, so dump him for some value now before he starts slumping.

Tyler Lockett, WR-SEA – Tyler Locket has the 14^th most points per game among WRs this year, but that is boosted by his 3 TD week 3 game. Aside from that week, he has not reached 100 yards in a game. Lockett’s targets are falling - only 9 across the last 2 games after having at least 8 in each of the first 3 games. DK Metcalf is really starting to explode in the Seattle passing game and has clearly taken over as the number 1 target on the offense. Coming up, the Seahawks play Arizona twice, San Francisco and the Rams, all of whom are top 10 in locking down opposing WRs. Their best matchup comes against the Bills, who are still in the top half of the league. As with all of these suggestions, these players definitely have value, but their top-notch play is going to disappear. Trade Lockett away now while he’s considered a top 15 receiver. His bye week is coming, so maybe you can eat the bye week as a way to improve his trade value and get people to forget about DK’s recent offensive explosion.

Tyler Higbee, TE-LAR – Higbee is the 11^th TE in points per game, tied with Hunter Henry. Given the two, I’d much rather roll with Henry based on Highbee’s lower production in the last 3 weeks. Excluding his week 2 explosion of 3 TDs, Higbee hasn’t scored OR broken the 40-yard mark this year. He has only 17 targets through 5 games, just not enough volume to start him on a weekly basis over a generic replacement streaming option. His upcoming matchups are also quite rough. Over the next 8 weeks, only his matchup against the Bears in Week 7 comes against a team giving up top 10 points to opposing TEs. The rest of his matchups are far tougher, and let’s be honest, an 8-week stretch is far too long to hold out for a player to get better. Unloading Higbee now won’t likely net you too much value, but it’s a good idea to start looking for streaming options at TE and maybe try unloading him if he does put up a good game in Week 7.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

39.1 Fantasy Points

Rookie Chase Claypool exploded onto the fantasy radar yesterday with a huge game, scoring 4 TDs against the Eagles and leading the Steelers to a victory. Claypool touched the ball 10 times and found the end zone on 4 of them, putting up 116 yards from scrimmage. His 39.1 fantasy points were about 50% more than Travis Fulgham’s 26.2 points, the second-highest non-QB point scorer on the week. This also means that the top two skill players that aren’t a QB were almost certainly not started in your league, and probably weren’t even owned in your league. Claypool spread his scoring around, getting one TD in each quarter of the game. On the other side of that game, while Miles Sanders had an impressive 74-yard TD run early on, he managed only 6 more yards on his other 10 carries. The Steelers are still the best against opposing RBs in the league.

32 Points

The Browns have now put up over 30 points in each of the last 4 games, all of them wins. They are 4-1 and are playing well in perhaps the toughest division in the league. This week’s win was perhaps the best of the season because it came against the Colts, who had the best defense in the league going into the game. The Browns have continued to commit to running the ball, cumulating another 33 attempts with Kareem Hunt leading the way with 20. It looks like Hunt will be filling the role occupied by Nick Chubb with D’Ernest Johnson a distant second on the team, considering he has been targeted only once in the passing game all season. Odell Beckham Jr. for the second time in his career had a pass completion, rushing attempt, and reception in the same game. He’s 4 for 6 on his career with 144 yards and 2 TDs as a passer, not too shabby!

21.4 Fantasy Points Per Game

Mike Davis is filling in for Christian McCaffrey very nicely. Davis is averaging 21.4 points per game over his last 3 games, all of which he has started because of McCaffrey being out with injury. The Panthers have also won all 3 of those games after an 0-2 start. This just highlights that some teams are better equipped to utilize players than others. Davis already has 426 yards from scrimmage on the season, his second-highest season total in his career. So far this week (the ever points-y Alvin Kamara still plays tonight), Davis is the RB1 with 25.4 points. He has at least 90 yards from scrimmage AND a touchdown in each of the three games he started and is averaging 7.5 receptions per game over the last 4 weeks. When McCaffrey returns, he will probably be just as good as we expect him to be, but it’s clear that a lot of that performance has to do with the entire team that surrounds him.

22.5 Fantasy Points

Jason Sanders single-handedly delivered enough points to defeat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. He was responsible for 19 points in the game, while the 49ers put up only 17. He was perfect on the day, making 9 out of 9 kicks totaling 22.5 fantasy points. This was better than any two fantasy players on the 49ers. Helping Sanders along the way was a bit of the ole Fitzmagic – Ryan Fitzpatrick scored 27.6 points on the day to be the QB2 of the week so far. The 49ers are now 0-3 at home, and 2-0 in New Jersey. Jimmy Garoppolo started this game but was probably not ready to come back after going just 7/17 with 2 INTs in the first half before being benched. The 49ers have a lot to figure out and definitely do not look like the same team as last year. Fantasy value on this team seems to be random at best, non-existent at worst.

19 Passing TDs

Russell Wilson continued his stellar 2020 campaign on Sunday night with one of his more dramatic 4^th quarter comebacks. Wilson now has 23 career 4^th quarter comebacks. This one included going 94 yards and completing two 4^th down plays on this drive to DK Metcalf, the latter of which was for the game-winning touchdown. Wilson now has 19 TDs on the season, still on pace for 60 TDs on the year. The next closest QBs are Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, tied with 13 on the season so far. This year is also showing the emergence of DK Metcalf, now the WR2 on the season. He’s averaging 17.7 points per game this year, hasn’t scored less than 12.6 points all season, and is clearly now Russell Wilson’s favorite target.

Since we’re doing a podcast on Tuesday night this week, let’s return to an old favorite and go over some good waiver pickups for Week 5. All players owned in less than 50% of Fleaflicker leagues, and FAAB bid suggestions are a percentage of your total budget.

QB

Teddy Bridgewater (CAR, 42% owned, FAAB 5%) – Bridgewater is legitimately trending up with improved performances over the last 3 weeks. Now, in Week 5, he gets to face the Falcons who have surrendered essentially 30 fantasy points to the QB position of their opponent every single week. This is a great fill-in if you have injury or bye concerns. Week 6 vs Chi is not great, but then Week 7 is another top matchup against the Saints. Christian McCaffrey could be back by that game as well. Bridgewater is gelling with his receivers nicely and the Panthers are now on a little 2 game win streak.

Kirk Cousins (MIN, 64% owned, FAAB 6-7%) – Cousins had a truly abysmal outing in Week 2, but it turns out that the Colts defense is really good, so we can probably write that one-off. Now he’s got consecutive games against the teams giving up the second and most points to opposing QBs. Both teams, Seattle and Atlanta, are giving up an average of 30+ points per game. Cousins has a very reliable run game that opposing defenses will be forced to focus on before the pass. He’s also found a great connection with his rookie WR, Justin Jefferson. Combine that with Adam Thielen trending up and you’re going to find Kirk Cousins in the top 5 QBs the next couple of weeks.

RB

Damien Harris (NE, 43% owned, FAAB 15-18%) – Harris was quite impressive on Monday Evening Football, putting up a perfect 10.0. Well, I suppose he could have done a bit better, but 100 yards on 17 carries is a nice average. This is the kind of production that will keep you in the lineup on the Patriots, especially with Sony Michel heading to the IR yesterday. Now, traditionally starting RBs for the Patriots is a recipe for driving yourself insane, but let’s just look at their current stable of RBs. Damien Harris is in line to take almost all of the early-down work, provided the game is not getting out of hand. The Patriots defense should keep them in every game. James White will get almost all of the 3^rd down work, and as demonstrated last night, even when he’s playing well, he won’t see much – if any – work on early downs. Sprinkle in a little Rex Burkhead and that’s your rotation. I see Harris as a high floor player with a decent ceiling if he can find the end zone. Just know that when Cam comes back, Harris will probably Cede some goal-line and short-yardage work to him, but then again, he was probably already going to lose a few of those carries to Burkhead anyways.

Justin Jackson (LAC, 22% owned, FAAB 10-12%) – Jackson did not produce much in limited work on Sunday, but he’s been able to produce in the past and he’s definitely going to be given opportunities. The Chargers have always worked with more of a split in carries than most teams, and they should continue to do that with Ekeler out. Joshua Kelley will see the largest boost in production on the team, but he’s a rookie and I do not see him getting 3-down work at all. Kelley has also lost a fumble in consecutive games, and any more of that will see him lose carries. Jackson had an impressive 6.9 yards per carry last season, and his rookie year showed him as effective in the passing game. He’s had a small sample size over his whole career, but now is when he can get sustained work and string a few good games together in a bid to get a larger share of the RB work for the Chargers.

D’Ernest Johnson (CLE, 2% owned, FAAB 13-15%) – Nick Chubb is headed to the IR, and that means that D’Ernest Johnson is the next man up in Cleveland. Johnson looked very good in his first actual game where he got a decent amount of work. This was against a Cowboys team that allowed a franchise-record number of rushing yards. Johnson produced 95 yards on only 13 carries, good for a 7.3 ypc average. Thus far this season, the Browns have been quick to swap between Chubb and Hunt, especially as the game goes on. I expect this to continue with Johnson and Hunt – perhaps with Johnson replacing more of Chubb’s carries instead of Hunt and keeping Hunt in a similar role to what he has now. The Browns are leading the league in rushing yards and are 2^nd in rushing attempts, so their 2^nd RB is a must-own.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB, 41% owned, FAAB 5-8%) – Vaughn has had a rough start to his rookie campaign. Injury and a positive COVID test in the preseason basically kept him out of training camp. Now that Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy have been sidelined with injuries, there’s room for Vaughn to show his stuff. He had only 5 touches but did find the end zone. Any RB that can connect with Tom Brady in the passing game has potential for a high ceiling, once his usage goes up. For now, I like Vaughn as a bench stash, though he can be used in an emergency situation this week if you need. The Bucs play on Thursday night and the quick turnaround will make it tough for their injured RBs to return by then. Fresh legs will be at a premium, and while the Bears have a solid defense this year, they have resigned themselves to Tom Brady being one of their co-owners along with the McCaskeys.

WR

Cole Beasley (BUF, 44% owned, FAAB 8%) – Beasley has been very fantasy relevant this season because Josh Allen is playing like he deserves some MVP consideration. Usually, a really strong passing offense can support 3 WRs in fantasy, and the Bills are apparently one of those offenses this season. Beasley had 20 targets through 3 games going into last week and was getting good work until he went out with an injury in the 2^nd half of the game in Las Vegas. Beasley did return later in the game, and the injury came on a spectacular TD catch, so I don’t expect Beasley to miss too much time. This team is just too exciting to stay away for long. This week, the Bills are scheduled to play the Titans, so keep an eye on Beasley’s practice attendance, as well as the Titans COVID testing results. As of the time of writing, the Titans have gone 2 straight days with no new positives, which means that they can open their facilities tomorrow, barring any new developments. I like Beasley as an injury/bye week replacement and a guy you should keep on your roster since he will move up the depth chart if there are any long-term injuries to Diggs or Brown.

Laviska Shenault (JAX, 47% owned, FAAB 5%) – Shenault is a rookie and all rookies are going to have growing pains, however, the Jaguars really like this rookie and are trying their best to get the ball in his hand. He has at least 5 touches in every game this season. He also has at least one rushing attempt in every game and last week put up a season-high of 91 yards from scrimmage. The bigger worry with the Jaguars is whether Minshew Mania is for real or not. After a surprise win against the Colts in Week 1, the Jaguars have lost 3 straight and now must go to Houston to face a team that will be fired up after finally ridding themselves of Bill O’Brien. Shenault is just behind Cole and Chark for the receiving yardage lead on his team. 5 players on the team have over 130 receiving yards on the season already, showing that Minshew likes to spread the ball around. Any changes in the depth chart will benefit Shenault and he is a TD away from a very good performance any week. Consider him a bench stash, for now, to be used to fill in for byes and injuries, especially if his team is getting a good matchup.

Tee Higgins (CIN, 45% owned, FAAB 10%) – Higgins just dwarfs everybody on the field when you see him on TV. He lines up at WR, but wears 85 (why do so few WRs not wear numbers in the 80’s anymore?) and is easily mistaken for a TE. He’s 6’4” but runs a lot faster than you expect him to. He’s an elite WR talent and is just starting to find his groove. Now that the Bengals finally have a win under their belt, they have some very tough matchups. I fully expect Joe Burrow to continue throwing the ball a lot – he is currently second in the league for passing attempts. Higgins leads his team in yards per reception, is second in receiving yards, and third in targets. I expect his target share to grow with A.J. Green struggling as he has. This is a young man’s league, and Green is not that anymore. Get Higgins on your bench now while he’s still cheap. The Bengals have a much softer schedule when it’s time for you to make your playoff push.

Scott Miller (TB, 29% owned, FAAB 8%) – Miller is officially trending up in several categories, including receptions, targets, and fantasy points. The Bucs keep running into injuries, so there’s going to be plenty of playing time for Miller going forward. Tom Brady also seems to be up to his old tricks with a 5 TD game (to 5 different players). With Brady getting in the groove with his new team, there will be plenty of fantasy potential out there. Miller is going to see lots of targets as long as Chris Godwin remains out (for this week most likely) and Mike Evans keeps getting banged up (every week it seems). This week doesn’t seem to be a great matchup for him, however as I mentioned earlier, Tom Brady owns the Bears, so you could do a lot worse than Scott Miller as a bye week or injury replacement.

Tim Patrick (DEN, 8% owned, FAAB 3%) – Patrick is a deep league option, but has all the signs you look for when grabbing a waiver wire player. He’s trending up on a team that has an injury above him on the depth chart. He has increased his receptions each of the last 3 weeks, along with his yardage and fantasy points. He’s also scored a touchdown each of the last two weeks. With Brett Rypien filling in the next week at least, at least he and Patrick have a bit of a downfield rapport developing. However, they’re going to New England, who will smother them on the pass defense. The only solace may be that the Broncos could find themselves down by enough points that they have to throw the ball deep anyways. Grab Patrick as a cheap bench stash if you can’t get any of the players listed above and wait until he has easier games to take a flyer on him in your lineup.

TE

Robert Tonyan (GB, 31% owned, FAAB 10%) – Tonyan will be on bye in Week 5, so he’s not going to be there for you if you need someone this week, but he looks like one of Rodgers’s favorite targets this year. Tonyan has a touchdown in all 3 games that he started this year and put up an incredible 6 rec, 98-yard, 3 TD performance on Monday Night Football yesterday. Tonyan was making the Falcons secondary look foolish, and it’s clear that he’s caught Rogers’s eye. Tonyan will be one of the hottest waiver pickups this week, and if people with big budgets in your league need TEs, you will probably need to double that FAAB to 20% or more to have a shot at landing him. When the Packers return, even with Davante Adams, I expect Tonyan to be a relevant TE1 for the rest of the season.

Dalton Schultz (DAL, 49% owned, FAAB 8%) – Schultz found the end zone for the second time this season on Sunday and he currently sits as the TE8 after 4 games. With Dak Prescott throwing the ball so much and so well, there will be plenty of work for Schultz. He already has 28 targets on the season and there’s not a lot of competition for his spot on the Cowboys depth chart. As long as Dak keeps throwing the ball like he has been, and there’s no reason to expect otherwise, Schultz will be in the TE1 conversation based on volume alone.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

0 Wins at MetLife Stadium

Well, it’s 2020 and for football fans in the vicinity of New York City, there’s still no victories to speak of. In fact, the last team to win a home game at Metlife stadium is….the New York Guardians of the currently defunct XFL league – though that may return in 2022. If the Giants and Jets can’t get their shit together, it might be the Guardians who manage the next home victory at MetLife Stadium. As predicted, between the Jets and Giants, Frank Gore leads the way in rushing yards with a whopping 174 over 4 games. The only other rushers over 100 yards on the season are both of the team’s starting QBs. Combined, the teams only have 5 passing and 3 rushing TDs. That’s an average of one offensive TD, per team, per game. Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones have combined for 9 INTs, so that’s slightly more than one per game. It’s going to be a rough 2020 in NYC.

28+ Points in the First Half

The Cleveland Browns achieved something yesterday in Dallas that they haven’t done since 1991. They scored at least 28 points in the first half. Now, this isn’t a minor achievement to make fun of, but it is fun to point out that only 4 of the Browns who played in the game are 30 or older and were alive to see the last time they reached that milestone. This year’s Browns, however, seem to be a force to be reckoned with. After getting trounced in Week 1 by the Ravens, they have averaged 39 points per game, albeit against some weaker competition. But hey, you can only play the team that is on the opposite sideline. This year, the Browns are getting the job done on the ground. They lead the league in rushing yards and yards per attempt and have the 2^nd most rushing attempts in the league. The Browns are averaging over 200 rushing yards per game and are also 2^nd in the league with 8 rushing scores. Nick Chubb heading to the IR will hurt them, but in true next man up mentality, D’Ernest Johnson managed 95 yards on only 13 carries Sunday.

1,690 Passing Yards

Dak Prescott, mostly by necessity of his team allowing 146 points through 4 games, has aired the ball out like nobody ever before. His 1,690 passing yards through 4 games is the most in NFL history, and he’s also the first player to throw for 450+ yards in three straight games. Sunday’s performance brings him ahead of Russell Wilson as the #1 fantasy player this season. His 31.3 point per game average and ADP of 48 means that he’s likely on a lot of teams that are doing quite well this season. I will freely admit that I thought he was overhyped going into the season, but I was definitely wrong. He has to throw the ball to someone, and he has gotten 3 of his WRs in the top 30 for fantasy points on the season. If you just go by yardage, those three guys, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are all in the top 18.

183 Receiving Yards

Your Week 4 receiving yards leader through Sunday is not a wide receiver, though he sometimes pretends to be one. George Kittle caught all 15 of his targets for 183 yards, a TD, and even tacked on an 8-yard rush for good measure. The 49ers are stumbling without solid QB play and couldn’t manage very much against the previously winless Philadelphia Eagles. Elsewhere in the strange receiving fantasy stats, 5 players caught 2 TDs each and none of them went over 100 receiving yards. Only Odell Beckham Jr managed to go over 100 yards from scrimmage, courtesy of his third TD, a 50-yard run on a 4^th quarter end-around. Meanwhile, only 4 players topped the 100 rushing yard mark, and 3 of them found the end zone twice. Way to let the rest of the group down, Ronald Jones.

18 Fantasy Points

Finally, we have a look at the D/ST spot for the first time this year. This was a bad week for them, as only 2 teams cracked double digits. The Eagles scored a TD and only gave up 20 points on their way to an impressive 18-point performance. Meanwhile, the Browns – currently a turnover machine with 10 on the season, could only manage 5 points from 3 turnovers and 3 sacks against the Cowboys. The early season leaders at the D/ST position are the Colts (52), Ravens (43), and Buccaneers (37). All still have the ability to just be a crapshoot on a weekly basis. The Colts are in their position courtesy of last week’s 26-point performance, the Bucs put up a 0 in week 1 and the Ravens have only 2 INTs and 9 sacks on the season. Coming up they play Cincy and Philly, so that’s a couple of good matchups to ride with until they hit their bye in Week 7.