Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

4 Career Pick-Sixes

Mac Jones has played 19 home games and has thrown 4 pick-sixes. That’s the same number that Tom Brady threw in his entire career in Foxborough. (Sidebar: Tom Brady has played in more Super Bowls, 10, than games in the Wild Card round, 7). This is normally where I’d pile on the Patriots and try to roast them for losing terribly two games in a row this year. To be honest though, I really want to see Bill Belichick get that win #300. He’s a hero to curmudgeons everywhere. This game was really the pinnacle, or I suppose the nadir, of this Patriots team. Their opponent had 12 penalties for 86 yards and only converted 1/3^rd of their third downs, yet still dominated the time of possession 2:1. The Patriots only converted 1 out of 14 third downs and had 156 total yards of offense. Well, there I go piling on when I said I wouldn’t. Hopefully, the Pats can win #300 for Bill this coming week because I don’t see it happening for the rest of the month while they play the Bills and Dolphins.

12.1 Yards Per Carry

De’Von Achane, yes, it took me one whole entry until I got to this season’s statistical freak, went into week 5 averaging 11.5 yards/attempt, and he only improved on that. He has a whopping 460 rushing yards, second only to Christian McCaffrey at 510. CMC has taken 99 carries to get there, compared to Achane’s 38. CMC’s average of 5.2 Y/A is absolutely pitful in comparison. OK, that might be a little far, but Achane has 17 carries of 20+ yards. He gains 20+ yards 45% of the time he gets handed the ball! The next closest player in terms of yards per carry is Breece Hall, and he’d be noticed and lauded in any year that isn’t 2023. Hall has 54 carries for a measly 387 yards – just 7.2 Y/A – why even bother? Achane, with essentially only 3 fantasy games under his belt (he has no points week 1, 1.5 points week 2) is still the RB3 on the season.

14 Consecutive Games with a Touchdown

Moving on to the guy who keeps seeing Achane in his rearview mirror. It’s not because Christian McCaffery is slowing down. I suppose that makes Achane more impressive because McCaffrey is now on quite a streak of 14 games in a row with a touchdown. He has 18 total touchdowns during that stretch. He’s averaging almost 25 fantasy points per game this year. McCaffrey has shown time and again that when healthy, he is the best player in fantasy football. Now that he’s on one of the best offenses in the league, it has to feel like your team starts every game with a lead.

3 of the Top 14 Kickers

I love to talk about removing kickers from fantasy football, and I just can’t help myself once again. This week – using the drinkfive fantasy football league as the standard – only 3 of the top 14 are rostered. None of the top 6 kickers are rostered. Kickers in the NFL are important in some situations. Kickers in fantasy football are random! With teams going for 2 more than ever, there’s not even the one-pointers to count on. The two most rostered players in Fleaflicker leagues, Tyler Bass (96%) and Justin Tucker (94%) combined for just 5.5 points. Together they would just be the K23 on the week! If the two best position players turned in games like that, it would be front story news on every fantasy website. But no, it’s just another Sunday for kickers. OK, I promise to lay off the kickers for a while.

186 Consecutive Pass Attempts

C.J. Stroud is the best-looking rookie QB to start the season. He currently has a streak of 186 consecutive pass attempts – all of the passes he’s thrown this season – without an interception. Stroud is the QB13 on the season so far. He’s thrown over 300 yards twice already and has 3 games with multiple touchdown passes. He’s pulled the Texans out of the basement with a respectable 2-3 start, including a TD pass to take the lead late in this week’s game. Unfortunately, he was up against the man who does not lose at home. Desmond Ridder has the Falcons at 3-2. All three victories occurred at home – two of those being exciting 4^th quarter comebacks. Ridder has not lost a game at home in his professional or college career. He’s 5-0 in the NFL as a starter at home, and of course, to balance it out, he’s 0-4 on the road.

If you haven’t noticed by now, we are in the thick of a time that plays a role in the confidence pool, especially season-long pools – bye weeks!

This can play big in your season long pools. If you have had a solid start and are sitting comfortably towards the top of the standings, you are loving bye weeks as the top numbers aren’t in play! You can’t have 15 and 16 point games where there are only 14 games played in a week!

On the flip side, if you need to make up ground, you need to make sure you hit as many picks as you can in a week.

Lucky for you, you’re reading my picks, so you’re good to go ?

Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

15 – KANSAS CITY over Denver – A week of dramatic, close, competitive NFL games … … … will begin on Sunday, not Thursday.

14 – MIAMI over Carolina – Welcome to the league, Bryce! We need 64 points from you this week.

13 – BUFFALO over New York Giants – An easy way for the Bills to transition into a season without Matt Milano is to play the Giants

12 – Philadelphia over NEW YORK JETS – Another nationally televised game based on a quarterback who won’t be playing.

11 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Arizona – The Rams offense seemed pretty tough BEFORE Cooper Kupp came back.

10 – JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis – The Colts don’t win in Jacksonville, and that’s even when they have the better team!

9 – Baltimore over TENNESSEE – I feel that the London crowd will be offended by player nicknamed King Henry crowd so the refs will lean towards the Ravens.

8 – San Francisco over CLEVELAND – Hard to see picking against the 9ers in any situation at this point.

7 – LAS VEGAS over New England – Hopefully the Raiders will keep the ball out of Jakobi Meyeres if the game is close late.

6 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Dallas – How quickly has the allure of the Cowboys disappeared?

5 – New Orleans over HOUSTON – The Saints just seem to find a way to win

4 – ATLANTA over Washington – It’s a home game so obviously you can’t go against Desmond Ridder!

3 – CINCINNATI over Seattle – OK, I’m back with the Bengals. My BOLD PREDICTION of the week is that even with the slow start, THE BENGALS WILL WIN THE AFC NORTH.

2 – TAMPA BAY over Detroit – This could be a surprisingly fun game

1 – CHICAGO over Minnesota – If you think the Bears will win at all this season, keep it on the one-point linen

All due respect to the great Willie Beaman, we have now seen the true Any Given Sunday.

In one week, we saw two undefeated teams go down in games that they should have easily won, plus a third top team that escaped thanks to a bad no-call! Makes it hard to have confidence in some of these teams!

So, that being said…let’s show some confidence to 13 teams ?

Week 7 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

13 – SEATTLE over Arizona – Look for the Seahawks to make a statement in this one.

12 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Pittsburgh – Hard to have any faith in the Steelers after a cross-country trip.

11 – KANSAS CITY over Los Angeles Chargers – Pretty sure you won’t be picking the Chiefs to lose against the division anytime soon. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE CHIEFS WILL NOT LOSE A GAME AGAINST THE AFC WEST THIS YEAR … … … OR NEXT.

10 – TAMPA BAY over Atlanta – If the Falcons can’t win at home anymore then they have no chance on the road.

9 - NEW ORLEANS over Jacksonville – Drop this down a few lines if Trevor Lawrence does end up playing, but still take the Saints.

8 – Las Vegas over CHICAGO – I’ll be in the stands so I can’t go against my Raiders!

7 – Buffalo over NEW ENGLAND – Bailey Zappe by halftime.

6 – INDIANAPOLIS over Cleveland – The Browns used up all of their winning points last week

5 – Green Bay over DENVER – Why would anyone have confidence in the Broncos?

4 – PHILADELPHIA over Miami – Hell, take who you want – this is just gonna be fun to watch!

3 – Detroit over BALTIMORE – This seems like another road game the Lions will somehow sneak out of with a win.

2 – MINNESOTA over San Francisco – 49ers injuries scare me more than Kirk Cousins in primetime

1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Washington – I am very not interested in this game

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 6 was one of those weeks that set offense in the NFL back by a decade. Offensive output was already trending down this season, but it hit new lows in week 6, with 13 of the 15 games on the schedule finishing with 40 or fewer total points scored. No NFL week last season had more than 9 games of 40 or less. Usually, it takes terrible weather to get the kinds of scores we saw last week, but this time it was mostly just abysmal offense. The low game scores also led to lower fantasy scoring for the week. Look back at your fantasy scoreboard through the season…I’d bet the league high score for week 6 was 20 points lower than it’s been in any other week this season.

The rookie crop was affected just like everyone else, as the 3 rookies who have been the most reliable all season (Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua, and Sam LaPorta) each had their worst, or in Bijan’s case, 2^nd-worst, fantasy game of the season. There were a few bright spots as all of Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, and Josh Downs found the end zone, and tight end Michael Mayer finished as the PPR TE5 for the week, but there were plenty of duds too. Emari Demercado, Quentin Johnston, and Kendre Miller were all non-factors last weekend after playing bigger roles in previous weeks.

Things only get tougher in week 7. Injuries have continued to pile up, and this week is one of two this season where 6 teams are on byes. You’re likely going to be starting some players you wouldn’t usually start, and you might be looking at some rookies who have been riding your bench. Keep that bye situation in mind as you read through these rookie outlooks for the week. The limited options have bumped some rookies to the right side of the borderline, and bumped others into consideration who normally shouldn’t be on your radar.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s talk about what to expect in week 7:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 7: @TB): Bijan still hasn’t shown off the ceiling we were hoping for from him this season, but his receiving work continues to buoy his weekly floor. Robinson has tallied at least 10 PPR points in every game this season, and he’s logged 14+ touches in every game as well. The Bucs have been stingy to running backs, allowing the 9^th-fewest points per game to the position, but Robinson remains a top-12 play for week 7, even in this tougher matchup.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Pit.): Nacua put up his worst fantasy game of the season in week 6, but he still saw 7 targets and faces off this week with a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game. The Steelers have been much more vulnerable to slot receivers than guys on the perimeter, so it may set up as a better matchup for Cooper Kupp than for Puka, but you’ll likely be kicking yourself if you sit the rookie this week because of that. He should still see enough volume to be a solid WR2, especially with the Rams’ backfield in flux due to injuries.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 7: @Bal.): LaPorta’s performance was a bit disappointing in week 6 as he tallied just 4 catches for 36 yards and finished as the PPR TE17 for the week, but he was targeted a whopping 11 times for over 100 intended air yards. He was facing a tough matchup with the Bucs and gets another tough matchup with Baltimore this week (the Ravens allow the fewest TE points per game), but very few tight ends have the kind of weekly upside that LaPorta offers. He’s still a safe top-8 TE option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Gibbs missed the last two games with injury but returns at the right time with David Montgomery now sidelined by a rib issue. Craig Reynolds handled the bulk of the work in spot duty last week after Monty went out, but Gibbs was on the field for nearly 60% of the offensive snaps the last time Montgomery missed a game. I’d expect a similar workload for him here. Baltimore isn’t an easy matchup. They rank 7^th in FTN’s run defense DVOA and have allowed the 15^th-fewest RB points per game, but a player with Gibbs’ skills in a lead back role this week is a top-20 option no matter the opponent. You can sit him if you’ve got multiple top-15 backs ahead of him, but if not, you should be firing Gibbs up in week 7.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): Keep a close eye on the injury report here. Roschon still isn’t practicing due to a concussion suffered in week 5, but this would be a great opportunity for a big day if he’s able to get cleared in time. The Raiders rank 27^th in run defense DVOA, and the Bears should be inclined to lean on the run game to help Tyson Bagent in his first NFL start. Johnson would likely split the workload with D’Onta Foreman if he’s able to return, but that could still mean 12-15 touches in a good matchup. If Johnson plays, he’s an RB3 option this week.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): The Ravens’ new-look Todd Monken passing game hasn’t exactly lived up to what it was billed to be, but it has succeeded in making Flowers a consistent weekly WR2/3 option. Flowers has reached 50 scrimmage yards in all 6 games this season and double-digit PPR points in 5 of them. Detroit boasts the best defense the franchise has had in years, ranking 5^th in pass defense DVOA, but I wouldn’t let that chase me off of starting Flowers as a WR3 this week. The Lions have allowed the 13^th-most WR points per game, and Zay has earned a 24% or higher target share in 5 of 6 games this year. There’s no reason to avoid Flowers this week if you’ve been using him up until now.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 7: vs. SF): In the Vikings first game without Justin Jefferson in the lineup, Addison was in a route on 100% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks and managed to salvage a lackluster receiving day with a touchdown, finishing with 3-28-1 on 5 targets. It’s worth noting that the Vikings played largely from ahead, and that Cousins logged his 2^nd-lowest pass attempt total of the season. The Vikings are a touchdown underdog this week and should return to a pass-first game script against the 49ers. Minnesota has thrown the ball at least 44 times in all 4 of their losses this year. There’s a chance they rein in the extreme passing volume with Jefferson out, but I’d still expect them to push towards 40 attempts in this one. That means Addison will likely see 7-8 targets, and while this matchup looks tough on paper, the 49ers have allowed the 6^th-most WR receptions per game. They’ve given up 14+ PPR points to all of Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Michael Wilson, Marquise Brown, and Amari Cooper this season. There is some risk that the 49ers will completely stifle the Vikings’ offense in this game, but I’d lean toward trusting Addison to put up 50+ yards and find his way to a WR3 day.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 7: @Sea.): Wilson has now topped 50 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games even though he made us wait until the end of the game to get there in week 6. Wilson finished with 3-63 on 4 targets against the Rams last weekend, and 2 of the catches and 45 of the yards came in the last 5 minutes of the game. We won’t fault him for that though. Wilson’s production profile is a big help in deciding when to start him. Every catch he’s posted this season has come against zone coverage, and the Seahawks play zone coverage at the 2^nd-highest rate in the league (86.5%). The Cards are 8-point underdogs and should be throwing plenty, so Wilson should be in line for another game with 50+ yards against a defense that plays to his strengths. Seattle has allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game this year.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): Rice has tallied double-digit PPR points in 4 out of 6 games this year despite not logging a route participation rate higher than 51% in any game this season. He’s been right around 50% in 3 of the last 4 games, and that kind of playing time probably means another WR3 finish against a Chargers’ defense that allows the most WR points per game and ranks 21^st in pass defense DVOA. I’d like to see Rice’s playing time increase before we start treating him as an every-week starter, but I like him this week in a plus matchup with 6 teams on byes.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 7: @Den.): Musgrave returned last week from the concussion he suffered in week 5 and earned a 24% target share in his first game back, and now he faces a Denver defense that has allowed the most TE fantasy points in the league. The Broncos gave up 20+ PPR points to Travis Kelce and Cole Kmet this season, and 10+ to both Logan Thomas and Tyler Conklin. The Packers’ offense would prefer to be run-heavy, and the Broncos’ run defense is just as bad as the pass defense, so passing volume could be low for Green Bay this week. I think Musgrave’s role in the passing game is big enough that I like his chances to overcome that low volume and finish as a top-12 tight end this week with the limited slate of games.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): With just 26 teams in action this week, every starting QB is at least a borderline option in superflex leagues. That includes both rookie signal callers getting the nod in the Raiders-Bears tilt on Sunday, though both of those guys are close to the bottom of the list of the 26 starting options. The Raiders have played coy about whether it will be O’Connell or the veteran Brian Hoyer under center for them this week, but Raiders blogs are all insisting it’ll be O’Connell. If that proves to be true, I’d prioritize him over Bears’ starter Tyson Bagent if you’re deciding between the two. The Raiders have better weapons than the Bears, and a better defense. O’Connell already showed that he knows how to get the ball to those weapons, dishing out 63% of the targets in his first start to Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. He threw the ball reasonably well in that game but was hampered by turnovers. He was intercepted once and lost two fumbles. Again, I wouldn’t start O’Connell out of anything more than desperation, but there’s a chance he won’t kill you against a Chicago defense that ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game.

QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): On the other side of the rookie vs rookie QB matchup, Bagent’s outlook isn’t quite as rosy as O’Connell’s. While the Bears’ defense has been among the worst in the league, the Raiders have at least been competent, ranking 16^th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 12^th-fewest QB points per game. Bagent put up crooked passing numbers in college at D-II Shepherd University, but he won’t find NFL defenses to be nearly as forgiving, and he offers little upside as a runner. Bagent rushed for 25+ yards just twice last season in college. The rookie had some success moving the ball in relief of Justin Fields last Sunday, but he averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt and turned the ball over twice in only a quarter and a half of action. Like O’Connell, Bagent is an ‘only if you’re desperate’ superflex option this week. He might be my 26^th ranked starting QB for the week (out of 26).

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. GB): As expected, the Broncos backfield devolved into a 3-man rotation in week 6 with Javonte Williams back in the lineup, but the split wasn’t nearly as bad for McLaughlin as it could’ve been. Samaje Perine handled the snaps in the 2-minute offense, but Javonte and McLaughlin split the rest of the work between just the two of them. Javonte handled 10 rushing attempts and McLaughlin handled 7 carries and 2 targets. That level of volume will make it hard to start either back with much confidence going forward, but they do get a favorable matchup in week 7. Green Bay has allowed the 5^th-most running back points per game. They rank 26^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-most running back receptions per game and 5^th-most running back receiving yards as well. 8-10 touches are probably all you can count on from McLaughlin this week, but that could be enough for a useful fantasy week if you’re stuck due to byes/injuries.

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 7: @Sea.): There was a lot of hype around Demercado last week after James Conner went on IR, but his outing was a huge letdown to fantasy players who were counting on him. He put up 17 scrimmage yards on just 3 touches and was outproduced by both Keaontay Ingram and Damien Williams. Something that may have been overlooked in the box score though is that Demercado led the backfield in snaps played and ran twice as many routes as Ingram and Dame combined. He played nearly all the 2-minute offense and long down & distance snaps. The Cardinals are 8-point underdogs this week, so they should be throwing plenty, and Demercado could lead the backfield in snaps and routes again. The question is will that turn into touches this week? There’s a chance that it does – the Seahawks have allowed the 9^th-most RB receptions and 11^th-most RB receiving yards per game - but this backfield is still too messy to count on more than a handful of PPR points out of Demercado.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Miller gets listed on the borderline this week because it’s such a limited slate of options, but he logged just 3 touches in a game with mostly neutral game script last weekend. This week’s contest should have a similarly neutral script with the Saints favored by a point. Kendre will likely see just a handful of touches spelling Alvin Kamara, and that role could get reduced even further with Jamaal Williams returning this week.  

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): The Seahawks got tackle Charles Cross back last weekend, and that led to them playing more 11-personnel than they have all season. JSN logged a season-high 81% route participation rate and posted his best fantasy game of the year with 4 catches for 48 yards on 5 targets. He also saw his highest aDOT of the season, but that aDOT was still just 7.4 yards, and he was only the PPR WR45 for the week. Arizona is a good WR matchup, ranking 31^st in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 7^th-most WR points per game, but game script should allow the Seahawks to throw a bit less than last week. Seattle is favored by 8 points in this game. Smith-Njigba should be in line for a similar 4-40 kind of game against the Cardinals, and that’s just not a line that will win you your matchup. Keep an eye on the Seahawks’ injury report this week if you’re considering JSN. Both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are currently listed as questionable. If either player sits, it would be wheels up for JSN as a WR3 for week 7.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 7: @Den.): Reed gets a favorable matchup on paper against a Denver defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, but he also saw his lowest route participation rate of the season (59%) and just 2 targets in Green Bay’s last game with Christian Watson closer to full strength, and that was in a game with no Aaron Jones. The return of Jones this week muddies the passing game picture even further for the rookie, and the Packers would prefer to be a run-first team when they can be, and this week shapes up as a week where they can be. Denver is abysmal against the run too. With a limited role and limited team passing volume, this looks like a week where you should avoid Reed.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Palmer was finally able to somewhat emerge from the shadows behind Chris Godwin and Mike Evans last week and earned a whopping 7 targets against the Lions. He caught just 2 of those targets for 47 yards, but it was his first game all year with more than 3 targets and more than 20 receiving yards. It’s worth noting that Evans and Godwin still combined for 47% of the team targets, and Palmer logged a lower route participation rate in week 6 than he did in the two previous games. Tampa was playing from behind all game and had their highest pass attempt total of the season, opening the door for Palmer’s big target day. Game script should be a bit more neutral this week, with Tampa favored by 2.5 points, so I wouldn’t expect the same overall passing volume, or the same target share for Palmer. It was a good sign to see him earn substantial targets in week 6, but I’d expect him back in the 3-4 target range this week. Atlanta allows the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and Evans and Godwin are the guys who are going to score those points, if anyone.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Downs scored his first career TD last Sunday and has now earned 20 targets in the two full games Gardner Minshew has played, but this Cleveland defense is going to be a whole different challenge for the Colts’ passing game. Downs has averaged just 7.9 yards per catch on throws from Minshew and has made his living on short throws, and Cleveland ranks 2^nd in the league in pass defense DVOA on short throws and hasn’t allowed more than 15 completions against them in any game this season. It’s going to be very difficult for Downs to compile his way to a useful PPR day against this defense unless they have an out-of-character game, and I wouldn’t count on Gardner Minshew to be the QB who solves this matchup. I’d keep the rookie parked on the bench this week even with so many players out on byes.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): Mayer took another big step forward in week 6. He followed up a season-best game in week 5 by essentially doubling his production in week 6. Mayer is now the clear lead tight end for the Raiders after logging a 67% route participation rate and dropping a TE5 PPR finish on the Patriots. Mayer is on the streamer tight end radar going forward, but Aidan O’Connell at QB this week would make me lean against using him even in a good matchup. The Bears have allowed 6+ receptions to a tight end in 4 of the last 5 games, so Mayer is probably a top-15 option this week. Just know there’s a built-in risk if O’Connell gets the starting nod.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 7: @NE): Kincaid may return this week, but he’s still reached 30 receiving yards just once in 5 games played and faces a New England defense that has been in the top-12 at limiting tight end fantasy points. Kincaid’s production has been hurt by the way defenses are treating the Bills’ two tight end sets. Buffalo was in 12-personnel at the 2^nd highest rate in the league during the first 5 weeks of the season but opposing defenses have treated it like a 3-wide set, usually lining up in nickel or dime against it rather than a base defense. The extra defensive backs on the field have removed the mismatches that Kincaid would get against base defenses. The Bills could force teams out of nickel and dime by running the ball successfully from those looks, but instead they rank 28^th in the league in expected points added per rush when in 12-personnel. That’s going to make it hard to force defenses into base fronts and hard for Kincaid to increase his production going forward. I’d view him as a TE2 for this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. NO): Bigsby is yet to reach 15 scrimmage yards in a game this season. He played his highest snap share of the season in week 6 but logged just 4 touches in the process. You’re just praying for a TD if you plug him into lineups, and the Saints are yet to allow an opposing running back to reach the end zone.

RB Christopher Brooks, MIA (Wk. 7: @Phi.): I was hopeful Brooks could pile up a useful fantasy week in garbage time last Sunday, but the Panthers took an early lead and limited just how much opportunity Brooks would get. He did see a handful of late carries in week 6 and broke off a highlight-reel angry run for 28 yards, but that run accounted for all his rushing yards on the day, and he was carted off with an ankle injury before the game was over. The team has called his injury ‘week-to-week’ so I’d be surprised if he’s able to play in week 7, but I wouldn’t consider him if he’s able to go. There won’t be much garbage time in a tough matchup with the Eagles, and Philly ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Tucker was active and played 11 special teams snaps in week 6, but he seems to for now have fallen behind Ke’Shawn Vaughn for the RB2 role. Tucker didn’t play a single offensive snap against the Lions while Vaughn handled 6 carries and 2 targets behind Rachaad White. Tucker is off the fantasy radar for now.

RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): Mitchell was activated off IR in week 6, but he didn’t play a single offensive snap. He’s not worth a roster spot.

WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): Tucker had a breakout game of sorts in week 6, putting up 61 scrimmage yards on 3 touches while logging a season-high 55% route participation rate. He operated as the team’s WR3 in this game and seemed to have an especially strong connection with backup QB Brian Hoyer. Both of his receptions in this game came from Hoyer, as did another target that resulted in a defensive pass interference penalty. The playing time is a great sign for Tucker, but the problem is that reports have indicated that the Raiders will turn to rookie Aidan O’Connell at QB rather than the veteran Hoyer with Jimmy Garoppolo unable to play. O’Connell leaned heavily on Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs in his first start, and I’d expect he’ll do the same in this matchup. The Bears do rank just 30^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, so there’s a chance that the speedy Tucker gets loose for a deep ball in this one, but I’d err on the side of benching him in fantasy lineups.

WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 7: vs. GB): It pains me to have to keep listing Mims here when we’ve seen the kind of tantalizing upside he possesses, but the Broncos continue to stubbornly keep him off the field. Mims has run just 19 routes in the last two games and garnered just 1 target that he turned into a 4-yard catch. Sean Payton was asked about getting him onto the field more, and Payton mentioned that it’s difficult with Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton ahead of him, seemingly not realizing that Brandon Johnson is also playing comfortably ahead of Mims. The Packers do rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, so there is a sliver of hope that Mims gets loose for a deep ball in this game, but it's just not something you can count on. A goose egg is entirely possible.

WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 7: @KC): The injury to Mike Williams hasn’t resulted in the boost for the rookie Johnston that we hoped it would. There is a strong chance that the Chargers will have to throw quite a bit to keep pace with the Chiefs this week as 5.5-point underdogs, but Johnston hasn’t hit 20 receiving yards in a game yet and has maxed out at 3 targets. At some point those numbers should get better, but we’ve seen nothing to indicate that it happens this week. Fellow rookie Derius Davis got some gadget usage in week 4 in the first game after the Williams injury, but in week 6 after their bye, he had fallen behind Keelan Doss on the depth chart. Davis ran just one route on Monday night.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Douglas was cleared from his concussion this week, so he should return, and he’s shown an ability to earn targets when he’s on the field (27% target per route run rate), but I don’t really trust any parts of the New England passing game to produce against a Buffalo defense that ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA.

WR Ronnie Bell, SF (Wk. 7: @Min.): Bell shouldn’t be in consideration even if Deebo Samuel sits in this game. He hasn’t topped 2 targets in any game this season.

TE Brenton Strange, JAX (Wk. 7: @NO): This is my obligatory ‘mention a rookie tight end because he scored a TD last week’ installment for this week. Strange saw a season-high snap share in week 6 as the Jaguars used more 12-personnel to cover for the absence of Zay Jones, and he totaled 2 catches for 27 yards and a TD on 3 targets. That was good enough to finish as the PPR TE11 in a low-scoring fantasy week, but he ran just 10 routes and shouldn’t be counted on to repeat that without a jump in playing time. He’s not a realistic consideration in lineups.

Rookies on Byes in Week 7: QB Bryce Young, CAR, QB CJ Stroud, HOU, QB Will Levis, TEN, RB Tyjae Spears, TEN, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR, WRs Tank Dell & Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Andre Iosivas, CIN, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB De’Von Achane, MIA, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Darnell Washington, PIT

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Malik Cunningham, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Cunningham isn’t someone you can plug into lineups this week, but he’s an intriguing bench stash in deeper superflex leagues now that he’s been anointed as the Pats’ QB2. The New England offense has been a mess, and Bill Belichick’s talk about the offense needing a full restart makes me think it might only take a couple more duds out of Mac Jones before they’re willing to try Cunningham as the starter. In the meantime, the Patriots will probably look to get him involved through sub packages and gadget plays that allow him to show off his playmaking ability. Cunningham was a true dual threat QB at Louisville, throwing for over 9,000 yards and rushing for over 3,000 in his college career, and we know how impactful that kind of dual threat skill can be for fantasy, especially in a season where passing stats are down as a whole. He shouldn’t be on the wire in most superflex dynasty leagues.

RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Pit.): Evans has a chance to be thrust into a major role this week against a Pittsburgh defense that’s allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game. Ronnie Rivers was placed on IR this week and Kyren Williams is expected to miss multiple games, leaving the Rams with a huge void at running back. Evans would be the next man up, but they also elevated Royce Freeman from the practice squad and signed Darrell Henderson and Myles Gaskin as well. How they divvy up the work this week is anyone’s guess, but I like Evans’ chances of performing well if he gets an extended opportunity. Darrell Henderson has familiarity with the offense, and Sean McVay does have a history of giving a big workload to a veteran back signed off the street. In 2018 when Todd Gurley was injured, the Rams signed CJ Anderson and gave him 87 touches over a 4-game stretch. Anderson did have a more extensive track record of 20+ touch workloads than Darrell Henderson does, so I’m not sure I’d expect quite that same kind of role here. The most likely outcome is that Henderson and Evans split touches this week until a hot hand emerges. I’d have a hard time plugging either player into lineups this week, but since this is a multi-week absence for the starting backs, both are worth waiver pickups if you’re struggling for RB starters.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Charbonnet played his lowest snap share of the season in week 5 and logged just 4 touches, but his busiest games of the year were Seattle’s two multi-score victories. He saw 8+ opportunities (carries + targets) and put up at least 40 scrimmage yards in both games that Seattle won by more than a touchdown. This week Seattle is an 8-point favorite, and the Cardinals rank 29^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game. Kenneth Walker III should be a slam dunk RB1 in this matchup, but Charbonnet should see enough work in this plus matchup to have some sneaky RB3 upside if you’re in a pinch due to bye weeks or injuries.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Was.): Don’t look now, but Hyatt has now logged 3 straight games with the 2^nd-most routes run among New York’s wide receivers and gets a very favorable matchup against a porous Commanders secondary. Hyatt’s production hasn’t really matched his boost in playing time, but if there was ever a week to throw a dart at that happening, this is it. The Commanders have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points per game and rank 24^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, coughing up 22 completions of 20+ yards and 6 completions of 50+ yards in just 6 games. They’ve given up deep balls to ancillary targets like Marvin Mims, Brandon Johnson, Rondale Moore and Gabe Davis. Hyatt is still just a boom-or-bust option, especially if Daniel Jones is back under center, but this feels like a week where we could see a boom. Hyatt costs just $2,000 for showdown contests on DraftKings. That’s a lower price tag than teammate Isaiah Hodgins has, even though Hyatt ran 4 times as many routes as Hodgins last week.

WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): With Chase Claypool shipped off to Miami and Equanimeous St. Brown on IR, Scott has moved up into the WR3 role in the offense. He logged a 66% route participation rate in week 6 and seemed to have a rapport with backup QB Tyson Bagent. Bagent attempted 14 passes in relief of Justin Fields against the Vikings. 6 of those went to DJ Moore, but Scott was his 2^nd-most targeted receiver with 3 targets. That doesn’t include a throw in Scott’s direction that resulted in a 36-yard pass interference penalty. The rookie finished the game with just 12 yards, but if Bagent continues looking in his direction this week against a middling Raiders’ defense, Scott could be an intriguing option in what should be a messy showdown DFS contest with two rookie signal callers.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.