Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was full of surprises, just like it always is. Raise your hand if you expected Jack Doyle to be the TE1...Or Dez Bryant scoring less than a point...Or the Lions having not one, but two top-10 RBs. Put your hands down. None of you called those things. As you know, we focus on the rookies here, so lets quickly discuss some of the surprises of the first week among the rookie crop:
Carson Wentz was a huge shock to me. Granted, he was playing against the Browns, who could be really bad, but I didn't expect a guy coming in from an FCS school with less than 40 preseason snaps under his belt to be able to come in and command an NFL offense with the kind of poise Wentz showed. I still think some growing pains are coming for Wentz, but right now I think the Rams are kicking themselves for taking Goff over him. Will Fuller showed that drops will continue to be a problem for him (he dropped an easy 87-yard TD), but he also showed that it might not matter, posting the 7th-most WR points of the week on a ridiculous 11 targets. He saw more looks than DeAndre Hopkins did. Ezekiel Elliott's much-hyped debut underwhelmed, but he salvaged his day with a touchdown. Also finding his way into the end zone was Sterling Shepard, who only saw 4 targets but certainly made the most of them. Tajae Sharpe impressed and appears to be the clear WR1 in Tennessee, and Corey Coleman also topped 60 yards on Sunday thanks in part to a 58-yard grab in triple coverage.
While it's fun to reminisce about week one, we're here to take a look ahead and see what to do with the rookies for week two. To save some time, here's a quick look at some rookies who shouldn't be owned in most redraft leagues...
QB Jared Goff, STL -Unless you're in a 2 QB league or one with 14+ teams, there's no reason to own Goff.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS - The reports of a timeshare with Matt Jones were greatly exaggerated.
RB C.J. Prosise, SEA - Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael combined for 7 targets to CJ's 1. While his role will eventually grow, that's a bad sign for the 'receiving back.'
RB Josh Ferguson, IND - He split backup reps with Robert Turbin and recorded just 3 touches in week one.
WR Laquon Treadwell, MIN - He's clearly behind Adam Thielen for WR3 duties at this point. There's no telling when he'll get on the field.
TE Hunter Henry, SD - Henry may be utilized a bit more with the Keenan Allen injury, but not enough to be a fantasy factor this year w/o a Gates injury.
TE Tyler Higbee, LA - Higee seems to have a big role in the offense, but it's a miserable offense. He was targeted 4 times in the opener, and caught just 1 ball for 2 yards, and looked terrible in the process.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI; RB Tyler Ervin, HOU; WR Pharoh Cooper, LA; WR Chris Moore, BAL; WR Tyreek Hill, KC; WR Braxton Miller, HOU; TE Austin Hooper, ATL
Now that we have that out of the way, let's dive in and talk about the relevant rookies...
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 2: @Was.): While I'm sure you were a little frustrated with Zeke in week one if you started him, he's in line for a bounce-back game in week 2. Washington ranked 22nd in the league in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat in 2015, and were the worst in the league in week one after getting shredded by DeAngelo Williams on Monday night. Elliott should remain the focal point of the offense this week, and I think 80+ yards and a TD are a reasonable expectation, with the opportunity for more.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Shepard's target count left something to be desired in week one, but his performance did not. I'll chalk the target count up to the Cowboys painfully slow pace of play last Sunday. Things should move much more crisply with the Saints coming to town in week 2. New Orleans was historically bad as a pass defense last season, and they picked up where they left off last week against Oakland. Add in the fact that promising young corner Delvin Breaux was lost for the season, and the Saints pass D might be worse than last year. Shepard should be a safe WR3 in a game that figures to be a shootout, though maybe not as high scoring as the 52-49 contest last year.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Fuller might still be a weekly boom-or-bust proposition, but you can't ignore his week one target share, which really carries over from a strong preseason. Whether he draws Phillip Gaines or Marcus Peters, his speed will cause them problems. I expect Osweiler will still give him a few downfield looks, and I expect he'll convert a few into catches. He's an upside WR3 this week.
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 2: @Chi.): Wentz should make for a decent streaming option in 2QB leagues this week, even if the Chicago defense is at least a little better than the one Wentz faced on Sunday. I'm still not sure if I underestimated Wentz or overestimated Cleveland in week one. The Bears are improved on defense from 2015, but they didn't really show that last week. Wentz will eventually take some lumps, but I'd expect him in the range of 220-250 yards passing and at least one TD this week.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 2: @Was.): Dak is in a similar spot to the one he was in last week, facing a defense that was unimpressive in 2015, but I'd like to see Dallas allow Prescott to let it loose a bit more this week. The week one gameplan was pretty vanilla, and Prescott wasn't able to use his legs the way he did in the preseason. I get that you don't want Dak to get hurt and be stuck with the Sanchize starting, but it doesn't make sense to me to make Dak the starter after he shows how dynamic he can be in the preseason, and then call plays that won't let him be dynamic. Improvement from Zeke should help Dak this week, as should Washington's defensive scheme if they don't change what they did in week one. Josh Norman played exclusively at left corner last week, and rarely ended up covering Antonio Brown. If Norman is deployed the same way again, look for Dez to move all around the formation to get some manufactured mismatches away from Norman. Dak is again a borderline QB2 option. If things go his way, he could push close to a top-12 performance this week.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 2: @Det.): There is no question that Sharpe is the number one receiver for the Titans, as evidenced by the week one snap counts. Sharpe was on the field for 64 of the Titans' 69 offensive snaps. No other receiver played more than 37. The only problem...the Titans' game plan is supposed to be a low-volume passing attack. They threw 41 passes last week, which is definitely more than they wanted to throw, and Sharpe was still just the WR38 for the week in standard scoring. The running backs and Delanie Walker are the priorities in this offense, and until that changes, Sharpe is going to be on the WR3/4 borderline every week. He'll be more of a steady WR3 in PPR. For what it's worth, the Lions offense is humming and the Titans should be playing from behind and throwing more than they want to again.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 2: @NYG): The G-Men appeared to be improved from last year on the defensive side in week one, so the upside for Thomas may be limited, but he showed great efficiency last Sunday with 6 catches on 6 targets, and Drew Brees threw 7 TDs against the Giants a year ago. While the matchup with Dominique Rogers-Cromartie or Janoris Jenkins on the outside isn't appealing, there is some sneaky upside this week. He could be a high-risk, high-reward WR3/flex guy in this matchup.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. Bal.): I'm not sure how the RG3 injury will affect Coleman going forward. Griffin's willingness to throw the deep ball played right into Coleman's wheelhouse, and it's a trait that Josh McCown lacks. McCown connected on just 7-of-25 throws (28%) that traveled more than 20 yards downfield last season. That efficiency will have to be better for Coleman to approach his ceiling. Corey is still the de facto WR1 while Gordon is out, and he'll remain a boom-or-bust option to roll the dice on as a fantasy WR3. The Ravens were 25th in pass defense DVOA last season, so the matchup is a decent one if Coleman can exploit it.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 2: @Det.): Based on what we've seen from Derrick Henry in college, the 41 receiving yards seem like an outlier for the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. He didn't show much receiving prowess at 'Bama, and while the team has said it's something he can do, I wouldn't expect that kind of receiving output regularly. He should make his money on the ground, especially in the red zone, but in week one he saw just 5 carries total, and picked up just 3 yards on them. That kind of workload won't create strong fantasy days, even if he does hit paydirt. I'd like to see that carry number increase, or a goal line role become clear before I'd consider playing him in fantasy lineups.
RB DeAndre Washington, OAK (Wk. 2: vs. Atl.): Week one was rough for Washington. He was talked up as the complement to Latavius Murray that the Raiders had been lacking last season, but he tallied just 6 touches (only one catch) for 24 total yards, and he was clearly outperformed by the number 3 back. This is a spot where you have to avoid starting Washington until he has a clear role as the receiving back.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Boyd saw just 3 targets in week one. There will be weeks where he sees more, but we saw what the offense is. It will be funneled through AJ Green and the running backs (and Eifert when he returns). Unless Boyd manages to jump Brandon LaFell on the depth chart, it will be hard to recommend starting him. There just isn't enough upside to justify playing a guy with such a low floor.
WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Mitchell is an interesting option this week with the burnable Byron Maxwell and rookie Xavien Howard starting on the outside for Miami, but with Gronk returning, this offense just has too many mouths to feed to expect a big game from Mitchell. At best he's a DFS tournament punt play.
WR Leonte Carroo, MIA (Wk. 2: @NE): I was excited to talk up Carroo as a sleeper for this week until I realized who he would be matched up with all game. Carroo was quiet in week one with just 2 catches for 14 yards, but he was on the field for 45 snaps and squared off with Richard Sherman all day. Sherman praised Carroo's competitiveness after the game. If DeVante Parker is out again, I'd expect a big snap count for Leonte again, but this week he gets Malcolm Butler. Butler was a largely unknown player turned Super Bowl hero two years ago, and he really came into his own as a lockdown corner in '15. That matchup is enough for me to re-think Carroo as a sleeper for this week.
WR Josh Doctson, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): You are probably aware not to play Doctson. He didn't get on the field until the game was already out of hand on Monday night. He will certainly work his way up the depth chart at some point, but until he does he needs to stay stashed.
RB Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 2: vs. Atl.): Was Richard's 75-yard TD run on his first career carry a fluke? Can he be Antone Smith redux? Is he something more than that? I don't know the answers to these questions yet, but my gut feeling is that he has a chance to be something more. Latavius has been consistently inefficient as a starter and gotten his production on volume alone, and Richard looks like a better pure runner than DeAndre Washington. His running style reminds me of CJ Anderson. If he continues to impress in limited looks over the next few weeks, he'll almost certainly start to cut into Murray's workload, and could overtake him by as early as 2017. He's definitely worth a stash in dynasty if you have the room for him.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 2: vs. Ten.): Washington is another player who is more of a dynasty stash than the guy to play right away. He scored his first career TD in week one but tallied just 1 yard on 2 carries. It appears that his strong preseason helped him beat out Zach Zenner for the big back role that Joique Bell played admirably for the past few years in Detroit. He could be a desperation streamer in TD-only leagues, but dynasty owners are the ones who need to keep an eye on him. He's shown some upside...he ran for 104 yards in the Lions' preseason finale. If his role grows at all, he'll be worth an add.
TE Stephen Anderson, HOU (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Once again, as is the theme with this section today, we have another dynasty stash player...but this one could have value in re-draft leagues before long. Draft twitter was in love with Anderson in the spring and was stunned when he went undrafted. Somehow, he still may end up the Texans' starter before long. Anderson caught 3 passes for 25 yards in the opener and only has to beat out CJ Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin to be the top dog. Those two are both better known as blockers than receivers and combined for 3 catches and 23 yards on Sunday. Anderson is oozing with upside and just needs to earn Osweiler's trust to be pushing to be a top-15 TE. He's definitely one to keep an eye on if you are streaming tight ends or have a lackluster starting option.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you dominate your week 2 matchups. Always make sure to use some common sense and fit the recommendations to your team. Don't just blindly start Sterling Shepard because of where I have him listed if you have 3 top-10 WRs. Also, make sure to keep a close watch on the injury report. With the removal of the 'Probable' designation, it's going to be even harder to tell who's actually going to play and who isn't. If you don't like what you see here (or do), feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) and tell me about it. As always...good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It's just a game.
We are now one week into the new NFL season … all seems right with the world again!
The tone was set in Week 1 with several games going down to the wire. It is hard to imagine that a week can properly follow up that performance. But it’s football, it’s always a possibility. 10 out of 16 in Week 1 isn’t too shabby! Now that we have a week’s worth of information on the teams, I can see a perfect week in our future!
Week 2 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
16 – CAROLINA over San Francisco – The Panthers let a big week 1 win slip away last week. Hard to imagine them even being in the same situation this week.
15 – NEW ENGLAND over Miami – Miami cost the Pats the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs last season … … … Belichick remembers.
14 – OAKLAND over Atlanta – I can’t begin to describe how much fun it is to put the Raiders on the winning side of a line this high and have it be a legitimate pick rather than just a hopeful fan’s dream!
13 – NEW YORK GIANTS over New Orleans – These two had an epic offensive battle last season – expect more of the same again this year…with the home team again coming out on top.
12 – Seattle over LOS ANGELES –Congratulations LA, this is your team! Could have had the Raiders, just sayin…
11 – DETROIT over Tennessee – Life after Calvin appears to be a smooth transition for Stafford and friends. I don’t expect the Titans to put up much of a fight.
10 – PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati – Boy the Steelers look impressive. They’ll do what they can to win this physical matchup.
9 – ARIZONA over Tampa Bay – It was just a matchup against a motivated Patriots team last week…right?
8 – DENVER over Indianapolis – The Colts came close to pulling out a shootout win in week 1. Unfortunately for them, they won’t be able to score at will in Denver.
7 – Philadelphia over CHICAGO – Monday night on the lakefront. Should be an exciting atmosphere…until the game starts.
6 – Dallas over WASHINGTON – Two disappointing week 1 teams meet up in this divisional matchup. I, for whatever reason, still have faith in the Cowboys. So much so that this week’s BOLD PREDICTION is that despite losing to the Giants already, THE COWBOYS WILL COME BACK AND WIN THE NFC EAST.
5 – New York Jets over BUFFALO – The week kicks off in Orchard Park with Rex Ryan taking on his old team. I really don’t know what to think about the Bills, but it's mostly not good,
4 – MINNESOTA over Green Bay – The brand new U.S. Bank Stadium opens up with a Sunday Night Football matchup against the hated Packers. The momentum of the new stadium will overshadow the Vikings offense being led by ________________ (insert “quarterback” name here).
3 – HOUSTON over Kansas City – A potential playoff preview goes to the home team simply for that very reason.
2 – SAN DIEGO over Jacksonville – I don’t think it has been more difficult picking the Jaguars to lose a game.
1 – CLEVELAND over Baltimore – I really think things will be better for the Browns with Josh McCown under center. Not enough to put them higher than a 1 though.
A wise man whose face is painted with neon colors first then black and white later has said, “the only thing that is for sure is that nothing is for sure.”
It seems like this is the theme for every week 3 – teams look amazing or terrible in week 1 and the look like a completely different team in week 2. The same holds true for this season as well.
Hey, it’s football…that’s what keeps things exciting!
Week 3 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
16 – DALLAS over Chicago – Have…have you seen the Bears this season? Now they’re even losing several players. This week’s BOLD PREDICTION is that THE BEARS WILL HAVE THE FIRST PICK IN NEXT YEAR’S DRAFT.
15 – INDIANAPOLIS over San Diego – You can’t have a home game against the Jaguars every week, Chargers!
14 – SEATTLE over San Francisco – Barely winning against the Dolphins and losing to the Rams? Still not enough to make me lose faith in the Seahawks at home against the 9ers.
13 – TAMPA BAY over Los Angeles – I expect Jameis Winston to just light up the Rams’ defense.
12 – MIAMI over Cleveland – Nearly pulling off wins in Seattle and Foxboro are enough for me to throw the Fins a bone and give them a high number this week. That, and hosting the Josh McCown-less Browns…that also helps.
11 – GREEN BAY over Detroit – A home opener against the Lions should be the cure for what’s ailing the Packer’s offense
10 – CAROLINA over Minnesota – What a difference one knee will make for the Vikings!
9 – Arizona over BUFFALO – The Bills put up 31 points with their biggest offensive weapons fighting an injury…might as well fire the offensive coordinator! #Nepotism
8 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Washington – The Redskins looked promising coming off an improbable division championship…not so much this season.
7 – KANSAS CITY over New York Jets – This should be a good game but the Chiefs are too tough in Arrowhead.
6 – NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta – The home team comes out on top of this “Hey remember when we dominated this division” Bowl.
5 – CINCINNATI over Denver – Another playoff preview that will end up going to the home team.
4 – Oakland over TENNESSEE – The Raiders have given two exciting games so far. Expect another one this week.
3 – Houston over NEW ENGLAND – I’ll finish writing the prediction for this game unless I get a call to be the Patriots quarterback in which case I will have t…
2 – JACKSONVILLE over Baltimore – Jacksonville needs to win this one to salvage any of the summer hype!
1 – PHILADELPHIA over Pittsburgh – The Keystone Bowl actually won’t be one-sided. If Carson Wentz pulls this off with how good the Steelers have been looking, I will indeed be a believer!
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully, you survived the injury carnage in week 2 and managed to dodge some underperforming studs to come up with a W. I feel like week 2 is an unpredictable one every year, and this year was no different with several unexpected game outcomes, and several unexpected faces atop the fantasy scoring leaders. Week 2 was definitely a good one for the rookie crop, as the high real-life draft picks really asserted themselves in fantasy.
At running back, first round rookie Ezekiel Elliott managed to top 80 yards and score a TD. If you were disappointed with that week 2 output, keep in mind that in standard leagues he out-produced all but one RB with a top-10 ADP on any of the top fantasy league sites (David Johnson was that one). Not to be outdone by the top running back, the top WRs had a big week as well. Every WR not named Laquon Treadwell that was drafted in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft outscored each of Allen Robinson, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, and Sammy Watkins in standard scoring in week 2. That list of rookies is: Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Corey Coleman, Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd. And on to the QB position...although Jared Goff and Paxton Lynch aren't playing yet, number 2 overall pick Carson Wentz lead his Eagles to another victory and outscored top QBs Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Eli Manning along the way this week.
It was a so-so week for the less-heralded rookies. Dak Prescott had another reasonable outing, as did Derrick Henry and Devontae Booker, despite not really putting up starting-caliber stat lines. Tajae Sharpe came back to earth a bit, as did Raiders' back Jalen Richard as DeAndre Washington asserted himself. Kenyan Drake and Dwayne Washington each found the end zone, and Austin Hooper used a 44-yard catch to help himself top 80 yards for the week. That's enough of a look at last week though...let's dig into the week 3 matchups:
Rookies to Start:
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Don't let the fumbles last week scare you. Zeke's workload isn't going anywhere, and he will eventually hit his stride. The Bears have looked improved against the run this year, but they are far from a shutdown run defense and will play without Danny Trevathan, Lamarr Houston and Eddie Goldman this week. Elliott has a great chance to turn in a top-10 RB performance this week, and should be in the lineup.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 3: @NE): Fuller hasn't given us a reason to not play him yet. He topped 100 yards for the 2nd straight game in week 2, and this week gets a defense that has ranked 28th in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA stat through the first 2 games, and have allowed 385 total receiving yards to WR1s & 2s in those games. I'd feel confident firing up Fuller again this week.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): Shepard showed what he's capable of in week 2 with a line of 8-117 on 8 targets. Washington has ranked 20th so far in pass DVOA, and Shepard plays the majority of his snaps in the slot, which means he should avoid both Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland. ESPN beat writers have reported that Norman will follow Odell in this one. Shepard should have every opportunity to follow up last week's gem with another nice day. He should be a decent WR3 option once again.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): This should be a great spot for a nice game from Sharpe. The Raiders rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, and have allowed 133 yards per game to the opposing WR1s. The two they faced were Brandin Cooks and Julio Jones, and while Tajae isn't nearly on that level, he should still find success in this one. He should finish as a solid WR3 in PPR leagues and more of a fringe WR3 in standard leagues.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): This should be Wentz's first loss of the year, but it doesn't mean he can't have a productive day. Pittsburgh has been impressive so far, allowing just 1 passing TD vs. 2 picks in the first two games while playing from comfortably ahead in one of them. They have however given up boatloads of passing yards...347 per game through the first 2 contests. It should be a real test for Carson, but given the poise he's shown, I like his chances of approaching 300 yards and flirting with a top-15 QB day, maybe even exceeding it with a little TD luck. He's a decent QB2 option, but would take a lot of guts to play in most 1-QB leagues.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): The Bears haven't impressed on defense so far, but they haven't given up huge games to QBs. They're just 19th in pass defense DVOA, but they've only allowed 210 yards and 1.5 TDs passing per game to Wentz and Brock Osweiler. It was nice to see Dak forge a connection with Dez Bryant, and I doubt the Bears have anyone who can contain Dez this week, but the conservative gameplan will keep Dak a borderline QB2 for now.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): The Raiders are a miserable 28th in run DVOA, and Henry may be closing the gap in playing time with DeMarco Murray. Murray out-snapped Henry 50-21 in week one, but that split was down to 41-31 in week 2. Both backs were effective on the ground against Detroit, and they are likely to continue getting Henry involved. The volume is capped for Henry, so you’re hoping for a TD if you play him, but he should find another 40-50 yards on the ground if he sees a similar snap count this week. With all of the attrition at running back, I’ve heard of worse guys that are actually in some starting lineups.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): I've got a hunch that Thomas will have a strong showing in week 3. New Orleans should get the passing game back on track as they go back home to the Superdome to face a bad Atlanta D, and I like Thomas's chances of finding the end zone. With each failed passing target to Coby Fleener, the Saints become more and more likely to stop targeting him so much and spread those looks to Thomas, Cooks, and Snead. Thomas has shown a nice floor, topping 50 yards in each of the past 2 weeks, and I like his chances of having his best day yet.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 3: @Mia.): Coleman put on a show in week 2 with Josh McCown at the helm, but he’s going to be hard to trust with Cody Kessler under center. The matchup is a good one, with Miami ranking 21st in pass DVOA on throws to the other team’s WR1. His explosive playmaking ability gives him a chance to make something happen, and I wouldn’t fault you for taking a shot on Coleman, but his floor is LOW this week. Proceed with caution. Editor's note: Coleman suffered a broken hand at practice today and, as Rotoworld says, "Coleman needs his hand to catch footballs". Don't expect him in the lineup anytime soon.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Jacoby Brissett, NE (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): The Texans have allowed the 2nd-fewest QB points through the first 2 weeks (just 7 points per game allowed). They also rank 4th in pass DVOA. While the Pats will do everything they can to come up with a game plan that Brissett can succeed with, I can't imagine it's one that will help him pile up fantasy points in a tough matchup. Playing on a short week, and possibly without Gronk, I'd be hard pressed to predict a top-25 QB performance from Brissett. The Pats should be hoping that Garoppolo manages to give it a go.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 3: @Cin.): Booker worked as the change of pace back to CJ Anderson last week and he did have some success, but the sledding will be tougher in Cincy. The Colts are 31st in run DVOA through two weeks, the game script was positive for Denver, and Booker managed to be just the RB37 in standard scoring. The game script likely won't be as positive this week, and Cincinnati is 18th in run DVOA. It's not great, but it isn't 31st either. Avoid Booker this week.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 3: @GB): With the news that Ameer Abdullah has been placed on IR, Washington’s stock is rising quickly. He and Theo Riddick will split the backfield work going forward, and Washington is likely to field the goal line work. He’s going to have some nice weeks along the way, but I don’t feel confident that this will be one of them. GB has allowed just 81 RB rushing yards on 44 carries in the first two weeks, and they rank first in run DVOA. There’s always a shot at a goal line score, but Washington might need 2 TDs to break double-digit points in this one.
RBs Jalen Richard & DeAndre Washington, OAK (Wk. 3: @Ten.): The Raiders' backfield timeshare is hurting the upside for both of the backups so far. After a huge week one from Jalen Richard, it was Washington who flashed in week 2, putting up 52 yards on just 7 touches. Head coach Jack Del Rio said that all of their backs are going to play, so this situation isn't getting clarity anytime soon. Until one of these two emerges as the clear number 2 back, both will hard to trust in your lineup. They'll have a nice game here or there, but good luck guessing when it happens. The worst part is that it's likely only a matter of time before they start hurting Latavius Murray's output.
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. Cle.): Despite Arian Foster being a long shot to play this week, Jay Ajayi being perpetually in the doghouse, and the game script setting up to be very positive for the run game, I still would avoid Drake. Drake saw just 4 touches to Ajayi’s 9 in week 2, and I would expect Damien Williams or Isaiah Pead to see some work as well this week. If there is any Dolphins’ back worth playing this week, it’s Ajayi. Drake may push for double-digit touches, but I wouldn’t feel good with him in my starting lineup.
WR Josh Doctson, WAS (Wk. 3: @NYG): There were some promising signs for Doctson in week 2. He was targeted 5 times, including 3 in the red zone, and he did put up 57 yards on the week. He did only make one catch, and the matchup with the Giants is a tough one. No matter which corner he squares off with, it will be a challenge for Doctson to get going, especially considering he still is playing behind Garcon, D-Jax and Crowder.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): Wide receivers not named Kelvin Benjamin have totaled 10-112-0 against the Broncos in the first two weeks. Denver is quickly proving that they are once again an opponent to avoid playing your WRs against, and Boyd's draw of slot corner Chris Harris Jr. should make things tougher on him. He'll be lucky to approach 50 yards.
WR Leonte Carroo, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. Cle.): With DeVante Parker back in action in week 2, Carroo was relegated to the bench again, playing just 3 offensive snaps. No reason to consider him this week.
TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 3: @NO): Be careful here...don't fall in love with Hooper's week 2 output and think he's going to be a breakout star. He's still clearly behind Jacob Tamme on the depth chart, which puts him behind Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Tamme, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the pecking order for targets. He may eventually have a larger role, but for now, he's best left out of lineups, even in plus matchups.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 3: @Mia.): You're probably laughing as you read this name as a 'sleeper,' and you're probably right to...but the situation could be worse for the rookie. He gets a pretty solid matchup against a team that just gave up 326 yards and 3 TDs to the combination of Jimmy Garropolo and Jacoby Brissett, and he does have some weapons to work with. He's nothing more than a shoot-the-moon DFS tournament play, but he could have a better fantasy day than most expect.
RB Josh Ferguson, IND (Wk. 3: vs. SD): Ferguson saw 5 targets in week 2, catching them all, and with Donte Moncrief out 4-6 weeks, the Colts may look to involve Ferguson more in the passing game in the short term. The opponent this week, the Chargers, did allow 153 RB receiving yards in week one. Ferguson has some sneaky upside as a cheap DFS play or as a flex option in really deep PPR leagues.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 3: @Dal.): If Jeremy Langford continues to struggle with his efficiency, it's just a matter of time before the Bears start giving Howard a bigger share of the workload to see what he can do. Howard had almost as many rushing yards on 3 carries on Monday as Langford had on 11 (22 yards to 28). Howard is more of a stash option than a guy to play this week, but if Langford gets off to a slow start against Dallas, who is 27th in run DVOA so far, Howard may see some extended work in this plus matchup.
RB Kenneth Farrow, SD (Wk. 3: @Ind.): Farrow is only a stash option at this point, but he's a name to know in San Diego. The undrafted rookie is the number 2 back behind Melvin Gordon now with Both Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver out for the season. Farrow isn't much of a pass catcher, so the Dexter McCluster signing won't affect his role much...he'll be the backup to Gordon for early down work. Farrow ran for 2,000 yards and 26 TDs over his final 2 years at Houston and received Pro Football Focus's 4th-highest overall grade of any RB in the 2016 rookie crop. He's worth a flier in really deep leagues for now.
WR Jalin Marshall, NYJ (Wk. 3: @KC): Jalin Marshall is only on the radar for this week, and only because the rest of the Jets' WRs are dealing with injuries. It looks likely that Eric Decker and Quincy Enunwa will be able to play this week, but Brandon Marshall has been playing coy about his status. If B-Marsh is able to go, forget all about Jalin Marshall for now. If Brandon sits, Marshall could be in play. Enunwa and Decker have split time in the slot for the Jets, so Marshall would likely play on the outside, and Kansas City has struggled with perimeter receivers Will Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyrell Williams through two weeks. Marshall hauled in 3 passes for 45 yards last week filling in as guys went out hurt, and he could see more action this week. He's a DFS tournament punt play and also an option in deep leagues that include return yards. He's got 160 total return yards through 2 games.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps with the tough lineup decisions and you either continue a strong start or get things back on the rails this week. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions, or just want to yell at me about any of this and tell me I'm wrong (@Shawn_Foss). With all of the injuries this week, make sure to keep an eye on the status updates on players throughout the week so you know who's in and out. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.