Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's finally Draft Day! In just a few hours, we'll be able to start seeing where the top prospects are actually going to start their pro careers. So...that means I still have a few more hours for some wishful thinking about landing spots. I tackled the QB and RB positions yesterday, and today I dive into what my favorite landing spots are for the WRs. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the receives to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. It's likely that there will be at least one team that drafts multiple wide receivers, but for this exercise, I have every receiver listed going somewhere different. Let's dive in...
(Player, college - landing spot)
Calvin Ridley, Alabama - Carolina Panthers: Ridley didn't test well athletically at the combine, but he has the technical skill to get separation and was a consistent playmaker at Bama. In 2017 he pulled in nearly 31% of all of the receptions and more than 35% of the receiving yards put up by Alabama players. He also had a catch rate that was more than 10% higher than the average of the rest of the Bama receivers. The Panthers' offense helps create space for receivers since the defense always has to account for the chance that Cam runs the ball, and that will enhance Ridley's already impressive ability to get open. The Panthers lack a true number 1 receiver, and Ridley has the ability to become that guy if selected.
DJ Moore, Maryland - Dallas Cowboys: Moore is my favorite receiver in this class, his game pairs very well with Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys have a glaring need at WR after dumping Dez Bryant. While a lot of people are tempted to project a big, physical receiver here to replace what they lose in Dez, I think they'd be better served to draft a technician who wins in the short and intermediate areas of the field and after the catch. Moore is the best player in this draft who fits that description. Dak is best suited to a precision west coast passing game that can keep him in rhythm, and Dez just isn't a good fit for it. This is evidenced by the fact that Bryant had a catch rate below 53% in each of his two seasons with Prescott at QB. He had a catch rate above 60% in 4 out of 5 seasons with Romo under center (I don't count 2015 where Romo played just 3 games with Dez). DJ Moore would help the Cowboys' offense be more consistent than a player more similar to Dez would.
Courtland Sutton, SMU - Green Bay Packers: There has been a ton of hype around Sutton throughout draft season, but he's not as much of a finished product as that hype would have you believe. One thing he does have that not many of the receivers in this class do is true WR1 upside, and Green Bay playing with Aaron Rodgers is a place where I like his chances to make good on that. The Packers moved on from Jordy Nelson this offseason, and will undoubtedly be looking for a wide receiver within the first 2-3 rounds of this draft. Considering how valuable Jordy has been to the Packers over the years, they should look for the player with the most possible upside to replace him rather than a guy who will step in and contribute immediately. Sutton might be actually be both of those guys, but if he isn't ready to be a starter day 1, the Packers have a capable placeholder in Geronimo Allison.
James Washington, Oklahoma State - Arizona Cardinals: If you read my QB landing spots article, you already know I like Mason Rudolph to land in Arizona, so it's only fitting that I would like his favorite college receiver to join him. Washington has a ton of skill as a deep threat that can help offset the loss of John Brown to Baltimore, and if Rudolph lands there I'd expect Mike McCoy to install more of a vertical passing offense that Washington can thrive in. He's not just a one-trick pony though. James certainly has skills that will translate to the short and intermediate areas as well. He earned a black belt in karate when he was younger, which will help him with discipline, precision of movement, and understanding leverage. The Cardinals' receiving depth chart is very unsettled outside of Larry Fitzgerald, and I'd expect Washington to contribute immediately if he ends up in the desert.
Anthony Miller, Memphis - San Francisco 49ers: Miller is a bit of a tweener who could wind up in the slot or on the perimeter as a pro, but I think he would be best served starting his career in the slot. San Francisco is looking to upgrade their receiving unit now that they've found their franchise QB, and Miller is an explosive athlete who would be a good fit in their scheme. He would likely start in the slot with Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin on the outside in 3-wide sets, but he could eventually develop into the replacement for soon-to-be 32 year-old Garcon in a couple years.
Deon Cain, Clemson - Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have been very active in free agency in attempts to upgrade their wide receiver group. They've already signed John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead, but they also showed they aren't content yet by offering a multiple year deal to Dez Bryant (that he rejected). Brown has battled a sickle-cell condition that has limited his ability to stay on the field after a promising start to his career, and Willie Snead was suspended 3 games last year due to a DUI charge and struggled to get his footing after returning. It's not far-fetched that Cain could vault into the WR2 role early in his rookie year. Cain fits the size/speed prototype for a perimeter receiver, and has ability in the vertical passing game that would pair well with Flacco's strong arm.
Christian Kirk, Texas A&M - Miami Dolphins: This pairing just makes too much sense to avoid it. Kirk is probably the best wide receiver in this draft that projects as strictly a slot receiver in the NFL, and the Dolphins just traded away their slot receiver who was the focal point of their passing game. Kirk can fill the same role at nearly the same level for a fraction of what the Browns just paid Jarvis Landry. If he lands in Miami, Kirk has 75+ reception upside as a rookie.
Dante Pettis, Washington - New England Patriots: Pettis lacks elite size and athleticism for a perimeter receiver, but he does just about everything well. He has great skill as a route runner, great hands, and is an excellent jump-ball receiver downfield as well. He was one of the best punt returners in the country last year, and he uses those skills effectively to gain yards after the catch also. The Patriots always seem to do a good job of finding bargains at the skill positions, and Pettis would certainly qualify as a guy who is expected to be drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. The depth chart might be a little crowded early on with the addition of Jordan Matthews and the returns of Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell, but none of the roles are settled outside of Chris Hogan's. At the very least, Pettis would get on the field as a punt returner as a rookie, and would work his way up the depth chart from there. He could be a long-term starter.
DJ Chark, LSU - Philadelphia Eagles: Chark ran the best 40 time in this receiver class at 4.34, and can be used as a speedy deep threat while the rest of his game develops. The Eagles' offense takes plenty of deep shots, and traded starting WR Torrey Smith away this offseason. He wasn't heavily targeted last year, but there were some deep throws that went Smith's way. DJ would have a chance to compete with Mack Hollins and Mike Wallace for the role, but I expect Wallace to win that position battle. I like this landing spot more for Chark's development. Wallace signed for just one year, so if Chark is able to make strides in his game, he could step into the high upside starting role in year 2.
Michael Gallup, Colorado State - Indianapolis Colts: Gallup was prolific in his two years at Colorado State, averaging 88-1,345-10.5. He lacks the top end speed to develop into a number 1 receiver in the NFL, but he has the skills to develop into a solid WR2 as a possession receiver and would complement TY Hilton really well. He could quickly become one of Andrew Luck's favorite targets (assuming Luck ever returns).
Marcell Ateman, Oklahoma State - Denver Broncos: Ateman is a big receiver who tries to win with his physicality rather than technique. He's going to need to develop that technique a bit to succeed at the NFL level, and Denver would be a great place for him to sit and learn early on. The Broncos will need to get younger at WR soon with Demaryius at 30 and Manny Sanders at 31 years old, and DT would be a great mentor to help Ateman learn some of the nuance of the position. He has tantalizing upside if he's willing to put in the work to realize it.
Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame - Oakland Raiders: St. Brown has gotten plenty of hype due to his dimensions and athleticism, but he has a lot of work to do on his game. Jon Gruden is an old school coach who will love the measurables ESB offers. If he lands in Oakland, St. Brown should get some usage as a red zone threat early on. The Raiders currently don't have a receiver taller than 6'2" on the roster, and St. Brown is 6'5". There's also an opportunity to progress into a starting role in the next couple years if he's able to develop his game since Jordy Nelson is going to be 33 years old this season.
DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State - Tennessee Titans: A lot of draft twitter would be up in arms if this happens since they love Taywan Taylor, but Hamilton might be able to step in as the slot receiver right away in Tennessee. His game profiles similarly to that of Cooper Kupp, and the Titans' new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur held the same role with the Rams last year where Kupp was his slot receiver. The job wouldn't be handed to him though. Taywan was impressive when he got opportunities last year and Hamilton will have to beat him out to contribute much as a rookie. With that said, Hamilton has the talent to grow into the number two role opposite Corey Davis if the Titans choose not to re-sign Rishard Matthews at year's end.
Keke Coutee, Texas Tech - Buffalo Bills: I'm not sure that Coutee is necessarily a scheme fit in Buffalo but he has the ability to take the top off a defense, which is something that Buffalo's WR group could definitely use. He's skilled enough that he could develop into an outside receiver despite his diminuitive 5'10" height. Receiver is definitely a position of need for Buffalo after Zay Jones' offseason arrest and Jordan Matthews' departure to New England. Number 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin is also coming off a season-ending injury. Injecting an exciting playmaker like Coutee into the offense would certainly help.
Richie James, Middle Tennessee State - Seattle Seahawks: James is an undersized 'tweener' who could find a fit in the slot or as a perimeter receiver, but that's an archetype that the Seahawks know pretty well. Both Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin also fit that mold. Adding James to 3-wide sets could make the Seahawks receivers interchangable and allow them to be more unpredictable as an offense. James is a skilled receiver who is dangerous in the open field, and Russell Wilson's improvisational skills behind the line create holes in the secondary where a player like James can make splash plays. There is a little bit of Antonio Brown to his game, and he could eventually become the top pass catcher in Seattle if they choose not to pay Doug Baldwin again when his contract is up in a few years.
Jordan Lasley, UCLA - Chicago Bears: Lasley struggled with some drops and maturity issues in college, but he has the game to be the long-term WR2 opposite Allen Robinson if he has those issues under control. It's no guarantee that Kevin White will ever stay healthy or regain the form he had before the injuries, and the Bears need to make other plans. Lasley is adept in the vertical game, but also has some shorter routes that he can win with in his repertoire. New head coach Matt Nagy's offense was explosive in KC last year, and adding playmakers like Lasley who fit it has been a priority this offseason for the Bears.
Allen Lazard, Iowa State - Atlanta Falcons: Lazard projects as a big slot receiver at the NFL level (or possibly even tight end), and the Falcons' slot receiver Taylor Gabriel left for Chicago this offseason. Gabriel and Lazard are very different players, and Lazard wouldn't be a great fit in the scheme that Shanahan used to run in Atlanta, but after a down year offensively in 2017 I expect Sarkisian to change things up a bit this year. The biggest benefit Lazard would provide is that he would help draw coverage away from Julio Jones in the red zone. With his 6'5" frame, you have to account for him in close, which should give Jones more room to operate. Lazard might develop into a fantasy asset down the road, but he would immediately be a boost to Atlanta's red zone offense.
J'Mon Moore, Missouri - Washington Redskins: Moore has the ideal size to play on the outside, where Washington is still a little unsettled. Jamison Crowder should be locked into the slot role, but Josh Doctson still hasn't made good on his potential and free agent acquisition Paul Richardson needs to show that he can continue to build on what he did last year in Seatte. Moore lacks deep speed and will be at his best working in the short and intermediate areas of the field. That should pair well with new QB Alex Smith, who is normally too risk averse to take shots downfield. Smith made strides as a deep thrower last year, but I'm not convinced that will continue as he transitions to a new offense and loses the playmaking speed of Tyreek Hill.
Daurice Fountain, Northern Iowa - Minnesota Vikings: Fountain is a raw athlete making the jump from FCS to the NFL. He's going to have to refine his technique as a receiver to make an impact at the NFL level, and where better for him to do that than Minnesota where they already have two receivers who are very technically sound? If he is able to develop as a receiver, he should be able to push Kendall Wright to the bench in 3-wide sets by year two. If Laquon Treadwell makes strides this year it would be more of an uphill climb for Fountain, but I'll believe it when I see it with Treadwell.
Byron Pringle, Kansas State - New York Giants: The Giants have a hole at WR for their 3-wide sets with Brandon Marshall being released, and I'm not sure Roger Lewis is the guy to fill it. Pringle is old for a prospect and had trouble with the law when he was younger, but he's had 4 or 5 years on the straight and narrow since. He runs crisp routes, has dynamic ability with the ball in his hands, and has good athleticism for an NFL WR. He also can be had with a day 3 pick, which will allow the Giants to fill some other holes before picking him.
That's all I've got for the wide receivers. There are so many players so close in skill level in this class that this was easily the toughest position to match players to teams. There is bound to be a lot of disagreement out there, so if you want to shout your disagreements at me feel free to reach out on twitter to do so (@Shawn_Foss). Also, go back and check out the QB and RB landing spot articles if you haven't already done so, and keep an eye out for the TE article later today. Enjoy the draft!
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're just a few hours away from the draft when we can finally put all of the speculation behind us, but that means we still have a few hours to do more speculating! I've spent a lot of this week putting together the puzzle pieces to match the incoming fantasy rookies to the teams that would make the most sense for both them and the team. Today I turn my attention to the tight ends. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the tight ends to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. Let's jump in and see who fits where.
(Player, College - Landing spot)
Mike Gesicki, Penn State - New Orleans Saints: Gesicki won't provide much as a blocker early on, but the Saints have managed to work around that in the past with Jimmy Graham and converted tight end Marques Colston. Gesicki is a freak athlete for his size, and he'll cause huge matchup problems in the red zone. He may be able to provide what the Saints hoped they were getting in Coby Fleener.
Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State - Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are in need of a starting tight end with Jimmy Graham off to Green Bay, and Goedert is the best option available to them. Goedert is a better blocker than Mike Gesicki, which will be critical with Seattle's perpetually poor o-line play, and he's a more dynamic receiver than the other top TE option Hayden Hurst. If he does end up in Seattle, Goedert would have low-end TE1 upside as a rookie.
Hayden Hurst, South Carolina - Detroit Lions: Speaking of Hayden Hurst, The Gamecocks' TE would do well to end up in the Motor City. The Lions are in need of a new tight end after letting Eric Ebron go to Indy. Hurst isn't as good an athlete as Ebron, but he's a better blocker and isn't as prone to the drops that have driven Lions' fans nuts from Ebron. Detroit did bring in Luke Willson and Levine Toilolo as free agents, an still have Michael Roberts as well, but Hurst would likely leapfrog all of them on the depth chart quickly.
Mark Andrews, Oklahoma - Carolina Panthers: Andrews could be a great fit as the heir apparent to Greg Olsen in Carolina. Olsen just re-signed with the Panthers on a 2-year deal, which is plenty of time for Andrews to work on his craft as a blocker. Andrews is a much better receiver than blocker at this point and could be a dangerous weapon in 2-tight end sets while Olsen is still around, or as the starter if Olsen were to get hurt again. The Panthers feature a fair amount of vertical passing to the tight end position in their scheme, which would give Andrews nice upside if he is eventually able to take the starting role.
Jaylen Samuels, NC State - New England Patriots: Samuels is a versatile, dynamic player and the Patriots are a team that has always been adept at finding ways to use those. Samuels was used all over the place at NC State - at tight end, as an H-back, as a regular halfback, and split out wide. He managed to post 1,000 scrimmage yards and 16 TDs in his final year with the Wolfpack as that jack-of-all-trades kind of player. Both Philly and New England stand out as good landing spots for Samuels, but I think he'll find a role more quickly with the Pats, and they're more likely than Philly to take full advantage of his versatility.
Ian Thomas, Indiana - Dallas Cowboys: Thomas is a good athlete for the tight end position, but he likely needs a year or two to fine tune his craft as both a blocker and receiver at the NFL level. Sitting behind the ageless Jason Witten would be a good place to do this from. It feels like Witten is never going to retire, but the end is coming, and the Cowboys need to be prepared for that eventuality.
Durham Smythe, Notre Dame - Baltimore Ravens: Smythe is a good blocker who is skilled in the short passing game as well. He won't have a ton of upside to be a top fantasy tight end and will likely spend most of his career as a grinding fantasy TE2 who can fill bye weeks. Think of Brent Celek or CJ Fiedorowicz. He'd be a good fit with the Ravens, whose current starting TE is Nick Boyle, but probably not a great fit with your fantasy team.
Jordan Akins, UCF - Miami Dolphins: Akins is a converted wide receiver who has the skills to be a dangerous receiving threat, which is something Adam Gase likes from his tight ends. He needs to improve as a blocker, but most rookie TEs don't produce anything in year 1 anyway and he can sit for a year and learn from veteran Anthony Fasano. As long as the Dolphins aren't awful this year and Gase is still there in 2019, Akins would have a chance to start making good on his potential in year 2.
That's all I've got for this year's rookie crop. Make sure to go back and check out the landing spot articles on the QBs, RBs and WRs as well. I also want to give a special shout out to Matt Waldman and the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. If you don't know what that is, go to mattwaldmanrsp.com and check it out. I watch a lot of football and gather info on the incoming players in a lot of different ways, but I'm far from a professional scout and the RSP consistently makes me feel more knowledgeable about the players coming into the league and the game of football in general. It's worth much more than the price Matt charges for it. If you have any qualms with any of the landing spots above, don't be a stranger. Reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Thanks for taking the time to read this and enjoy the draft!
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, grueling offseason without football, but week 1 is finally upon us! For those of you who are new here, the Rookie Report is my weekly breakdown of the matchups each of the fantasy relevant rookies will face. Each week I’ll break them down into rookies to start, borderline rookies, and rookies to sit, then I’ll give you a few guys to consider as deep league fill-ins or cheap DFS tournament plays. Week 1 is always one of the toughest to project. It’s hard to know what to expect from players who have never taken a regular season NFL snap, and it’s also tough to know for sure which defenses will regress or improve from one year to the next until we see them on the field. For that reason, week 1 is going to be full of mostly guys to sit and sleepers, but I try to give a little insight as to why each week as well.
Since it’s week 1, I also have a special treat before we get into this week’s matchups. Here’s a look at my top-10 fantasy rookies for 2018:
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG: Barkley is poised to be the Giants’ workhorse back, and barring injury appears to be a lock to finish as one of the top-8 backs in fantasy this year in PPR leagues. He should carry plenty of value in non-PPR leagues as well.
2. Royce Freeman, RB, DEN: Freeman has come on strong through training camp and the preseason, and he is an unexpected player to see here as the #2 rookie. Nick Chubb, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel all had higher draft positions, but either due to injury or tougher competition for playing time, they all open the season in worse position than Royce. Freeman looks to be the lead back in Denver from week 1 on, and he should be a low-end RB2 in most formats. Denver’s offense should improve overall with Case Keenum under center.
3. Michael Gallup, WR, DAL: Gallup walks into a wide-open Cowboys’ WR depth chart with plenty of targets available now that Dez and Witten are gone, and he should start on the outside right away. The Cowboys will want to be run-heavy with Ezekiel Elliott, but their defense and banged up o-line could make that challenging. Gallup has WR3 upside this season.
4. DJ Moore, WR, CAR: Moore should start immediately in Carolina, but he’ll face stiffer target competition than Gallup. Greg Olsen returns, Christian McCaffrey is poised for a monster year, and Devin Funchess remains a starter after a breakout campaign in ’17. I trust that Moore is the more talented receiver of he and Gallup, but he’ll be hard-pressed to carve out a fantasy-starter kind of workload.
5. Sony Michel, RB, NE: The Patriots’ backfield is often the bane of many fantasy owners’ existence due to inconsistent usage from week-to-week, but I have faith that Michel has a big role this season. Belichick has never really invested much capital into the position. They’ve always made do with late round draft picks, cast-offs from other teams and undervalued free agents. Mike Gillislee, Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, James White, Jeremy Hill, LeGarrette Blount. None of them have cost much to acquire, which is why it stands out that the Pats used a first round pick to acquire Michel. He may start slowly as he works his way back from a preseason knee injury, but make no mistake, the Patriots think this is a special player and he’ll be involved.
6. Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET: Johnson will likely still have to work his way past Blount to be a fantasy force this year, but Blount hasn’t had much success outside of New England in his career. After investing a first round pick in a nasty run-blocking center, and trading up in the second to get Kerryon, it looks like Johnson has a chance to give the Lions the running game they’ve been seeking for most of the past decade.
7. Anthony Miller, WR, CHI: There are a ton of targets available in Chicago with a fully revamped group of pass catchers in town. Miller should be a factor early in the year, and he could really shine if Allen Robinson falters in his return from his ACL injury from last year. 800 yards and a handful of TDs would be a successful rookie campaign for the Memphis product.
8. Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA: Penny has definitely faltered in training camp after the Seahawks selected him in the first round, but he’ll get his chances as the season gets going. Seattle wants to be much more run-heavy this year, as evidenced by the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer as OC and the offseason investment in Penny and the o-line. Chris Carson will get the first crack at the job, but I’d be surprised if Penny doesn’t push for 200 carries barring an injury.
9. Nick Chubb, RB, CLE: Carlos Hyde as operated as the lead back throughout camp, and Duke Johnson’s 3rd-down role is secure, but Chubb is just too talented to keep him down for long. He’ll get his opportunities, and when he succeeds with them, he’ll get more of them. Chubb has a chance to be a fantasy force in the second half of the season.
10. Sam Darnold, QB, NYJ: Darnold is the only rookie QB slated to start week 1, and I’d fully expect him to start all season. He has a few weapons now that the Jets have realized Bilal Powell is their best RB and they’ve got Quincy Enunwa back healthy. There will be some growing pains, but Darnold has a chance to finish the year as a respectable QB2 if he hits the ground running.
That’s all for the Top-10; now let’s dig into the week 1 slate…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Barkley is the one rookie I can confidently recommend for week 1. The Giants took him 2nd overall, and they plan to use him a ton. Jacksonville’s defense is considered to be the best in the league, but they were giving to opposing RBs last year. They ranked 27th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, which measures efficiency, and struggled a bit to contain backs who could catch as well. You didn’t make Barkley your first pick to sit him week one.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Sea.): Freeman draws a defense that was in the middle of the pack against the run in 2017, and they have lost much of the starting lineup that got them there. This isn’t the same Seattle defense that was feared a few years ago, and Freeman has a great shot at a successful debut. He’s an excellent flex option this week.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): I’d probably lean towards not playing Kerryon this week, but I’d expect he’ll at least be splitting the early down work with Blount, and the Lions are favored by nearly a touchdown. If Johnson finds the end zone, he’ll post a solid day.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 1: vs. Dal.): Moore is a flex option in deeper leagues this week. The Dallas defense could be abysmal this year, and DJ is essentially going to be the Panthers’ WR 1-A this season. 5-70 isn’t an unrealistic hope for Moore’s debut.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 1: @Car.): On the other side of this matchup, Gallup will have a chance to produce as well. The Panthers’ young secondary is decent, but nothing to be afraid of here, and I think Dallas plays from behind and throws more than they’d like. That negative game script would bode well for Gallup. I’d rather play Moore this week, but Gallup is also on the flex radar in week 1.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Det.): Darnold will be the youngest QB ever to start in week 1 of their rookie season, and he goes into Detroit as a 6.5-point underdog facing a defense that forced more turnovers last year than any teams not named the Jaguars or Ravens. He also will be without one of his starting receivers in Jermaine Kearse. It’s not a recipe for success his first time out.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 1: vs. Pit.): I love Chubb’s upside for the back half of the year, and the Steelers’ run defense hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier’s injury, but at least for week 1 it will probably be the Carlos Hyde show on early downs. Chubb may see a handful of carries, but it’s hard to predict big things with such a limited workload.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 1: @Den.): Penny will likely see a few carries, but for now it’s going to be Chris Carson leading the way for the Seahawks’ backfield, and the matchup this week is daunting if Denver is anywhere near as good against the run as they were a year ago. Steer clear of Penny this week.
RB Ronald Jones, TB (Wk. 1: @NO): This one should be pretty obvious as Jones was listed as the team’s 3rd-string back behind Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers earlier this week. Don’t overthink it.
RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Trust the people telling you that James Conner is the back you want this week with Le’Veon Bell likely to miss this game. I’m curious to see how the Steelers deploy Samuels given his versatility (he played TE, RB and WR in college), but I don’t expect him to pick up much of the slack left by Bell’s absence this week.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 1: @Phi.): Ridley enters the season as the #3 receiver behind Julio and Sanu, and that likely puts him behind Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the target pecking order as well. That’s just too low in the food chain to trust until we see different on the field.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): While I like Kirk to finish the year as the Cardinals’ 2nd WR, his role for week 1 is foggy at best. It sounds like he will be rotating with Chad Williams and JJ Nelson, and his usage will just be too hard to predict for fantasy purposes in the opener.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Sea.): I was very tempted to list Sutton as a sleeper this week as he’s been better than expected through the preseason, but I’m just not sure there will be enough passing volume out of Denver to trust Sutton in week 1. He’s still behind Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas in the pecking order. There’s definitely upside given what he’s shown so far, but I would have a hard time trusting him in week 1.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): The Dolphins’ head coach Adam Gase has talked up the role that Gesicki will play this season, but the reality is that the rookie caught just 1 pass in the preaseason, he’s struggled as a blocker as well, and rookie tight ends rarely produce strong fantasy numbers. Also, the Dolphins haven’t had a TE reach 400 receiving yards in Gase’s two seasons as head coach. I’ll need to see it before I believe it with Gesicki.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Plays:
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): In all honesty, I trust Rex Burkhead more than Michel in week one since there is no guarantee that Sony is able to play yet, but if he goes I expect he’ll be involved. As I mentioned with Michel in my top-10 rookies, the Patriots NEVER spend resources on a running back. I think they want Sony to show why he’s the exception. He’s an intriguing risk/reward flex play for deeper leagues if he’s a go.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): You could certainly make a case for Hines’s teammate Jordan Wilkins as a sleeper here since it’s likely Wilkins starts on Sunday. Wilkins certainly has the higher floor, but against the Bengals’ defense, I’d rather roll the dice on the big play guy. Hines has struggled through the preseason, but Marlon Mack’s absence should open the door for him to get on the field on 3rd downs, and it only takes a couple big plays for Hines to have a huge game. He’s an explosive athlete, and one who could catch the Bengals by surprise. He’s no more than a DFS tournament punt play, but one who could pay off big.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 1: @GB): The Packers are favored by more than a touchdown in this game, and if the Bears fall behind I think Miller has a chance at a stronger than expected game. The Packers’ have had one of the worst pass defenses in the league two years running, and I don’t think they addressed it enough this offseason to make major strides. A 4-60 kind of game wouldn’t surprise me from Miller. If he finds the end zone with it, he’ll make some DFS players a little money.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cle.): With Le’Veon Bell sitting in week one, and the Browns boasting a stout run defense (ranked 4th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA last year), there are plenty of passing targets to go around for the Steelers. Cleveland’s defensive scheme under Gregg Williams was kind of a joke last year, often lining up a safety deep enough to return a punt. It helped the Browns not get killed deep, but they were roasted in the intermediate part of the field, an area where Washington excelled in his career at Oklahoma State. I’d expect Washington to play in 3-WR sets this week, and the opportunity is there for him to be a sneaky DFS dart throw.
WR TreQuan Smith, NO (Wk. 1: vs. TB): I was sleeping on TreQuan around the time of the draft, but it’s hard to overlook what he’s been doing this preseason. The Saints clearly love him, and he could wind up the long-term WR2 behind Mike Thomas. He’s impressed all preseason while Cam Meredith was sidelined. He’s got a little work to do to move up the depth chart, but he’s an excellent dynasty or deep league stash at this point in the year. It’s very possible he surpasses Meredith and Ted Ginn by the latter part of the season.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Goedert could be in line for a strong debut. The Eagles will be without Alshon Jeffrey, and his likely replacement in Mack Hollins. That really leaves just Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace as worthwhile receivers that will be available. Expect a bunch of two-TE sets from Philly on Thursday, and expect Goedert to surprise. 5-6 targets is a reasonable expectation for the former South Dakota State Jackrabbit.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Enjoy the action as the season gets underway Thursday night. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure you don’t end up starting a player who isn’t going to suit up, and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Wasn’t it great to have real live regular season NFL action back? We finally have some real game data on this year’s rookie class, and at least for one week the results were surprising. Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman performed about as expected, but everyone else was a surprise. The other standout rookies of week 1 were Sam Darnold, Phillip Lindsay, Dante Pettis, and Will Dissly. You probably hadn’t heard of at least two of those 4 prior to Sunday. As for the more heralded rookies, it was less than a memorable week 1. DJ Moore, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Rashaad Penny, Calvin Ridley, James Washington, and Dallas Goedert were all pretty quiet in their openers. While I expect things to pick up for them eventually, most of them will be tough to trust in the immediate future. Let’s take a look at what to expect from week 2. It looks like another week with a lot of guys to sit and a decent number of sleepers…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 2: @Dal.): Don’t overthink this. His volume might be capped just a bit by the Cowboys’ style of play. They slow the game down as much as possible, but I expect his talent to shine through again. He’s got too high of a ceiling to leave him on your bench this week.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): Although it was his teammate and fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay who got most of the notice on Sunday, Freeman had himself a pretty solid debut as well. He looks like the clear lead back on early downs. He carried 15 times for 71 yards, and likely won’t be dealing with quite as much competition for carries from Lindsay in future weeks. The roles look like they’re going to shake out with Lindsay being more of a third down back. He doesn’t have the size to hold up to 15 carries per week over a full season. The matchup this week is a decent one. Oakland’s defense is a shell of what it once was, and Freeman should finish as a low-end RB2 in standard leagues, and a reasonable flex option in PPR leagues.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): As I just mentioned with Freeman above, Lindsay is getting a lot of love in waiver wire columns this week, but his performance against the Seahawks may be the ceiling for Phillip. At just 5’8”, 190, Lindsay isn’t built to be a primary ball carrier. He’s going to get most of his work as a 3rd-down receiving back. His week one results were more due to him having the hot hand in the opener. He’ll be a weekly flex option in PPR leagues.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 2: @SF): LeGarrette Blount is dealing with a shoulder injury that could limit his snaps, and Kerryon gets to face a 49ers defense that is without Reuben Foster for one more week. Week 1 was less than ideal for Johnson, but I like his fantasy prospects for this week better than fellow high rookie picks Nick Chubb and Rashaad Penny. I’m still a believer that Kerryon will assert himself early in the season, and the Lions will be eager to wash the taste of their embarrassing loss to the Jets away. He’s still not more than a low-end flex option this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Allen will become the 2nd Buffalo Bills rookie QB to make his first career start against the Chargers in as many years. Nathan Peterman famously threw 5 first-half interceptions in his start last year. While I don’t expect things to be that bad for Allen, he has a worse offensive line and arguably worse weapons than Peterman was working with in 2017. Don’t expect a usable stat line unless it’s heavily padded by rushing numbers.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 2: @NO): Chubb carried just 3 times in the season opener, compared to 22 totes for Carlos Hyde and 5 for Duke Johnson. There’s no reason to expect a big jump in workload this week, and therefore no reason to start him against the Saints. His time will come eventually, but for now the Browns are content with Hyde leading the way.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): To say that Penny was inefficient last week compared to Chris Carson would be a drastic understatement. Both players had 7 carries. Carson turned them into more than 7 yards per carry. Penny turned them into 8 yards. Penny did have some receiving game usage and will likely stay involved this week, but he got the opposite of a vote of confidence from coach Pete Carroll this week and faces a pretty feisty Bears’ defense. I’d keep him parked on the bench for this week.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): For the time being, Sutton will be nothing more than a weekly low-cost DFS dart throw. The Broncos passing attack has long been focused on Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, and week one showed that isn’t changing this season. Manny and DT combined for 21 of Denver’s 39 passing targets. Sutton will be battling for scraps most weeks. There may be some weeks where he comes up big, but it will be tough to guess when they’ll happen. His future looks bright, but his path is currently a little roadblocked.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 2: vs. Car.): Ridley was all but invisible in the opener. He’s not nearly high enough in the pecking order for targets to start him in any format at this point.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Moore played just 17 snaps and wasn’t targeted once in the opener. It’s a stunning turn of events for a guy who had a good camp and was a first-round draft pick. The Panthers are bound to get him more involved eventually, and may do so as early as this week with Olsen out. I’m waiting until I see it on the field to be willing to play Moore.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Like DJ Moore, Gallup was curiously under-utilized in week 1. Gallup played with the first string throughout the preseason and looked like he had the most upside of any receiver on the team, but he ran just 17 routes in week 1 and caught his only target for 9 yards. I need to see him get more playing time before I can suggest doing anything other than sitting him.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 2: @LAR): A lot was made of Christian Kirk losing out to Chad Williams for the number 2 WR job in Arizona, but it looks like both guys are going to be pretty useless for fantasy purposes for the time being. Kirk caught just 1 pass for 4 yards in the opener, and Williams didn’t catch any. The Rams boast one of the best sets of corners in the league. Keep Kirk under wraps this week.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 2: @TB): Goedert was a big disappointment in week 1, catching just 1 of the 3 targets he saw in the opener. I thought he’d see much more work with Alshon Jeffrey sidelined, but it was not to be. I’m not that optimistic he’ll be more involved this week against a Bucs team that is more vulnerable to WRs than TEs. Tampa allowed just the 3rd-fewest points to tight ends last year, and the most to WRs. They lost CB Vernon Hargreaves for the year in the opener, and also gave up the 3rd-most WR points in week 1. Look for Nelson Agholor to pile up catches again, and don’t be surprised when Mike Wallace posts a surprising big game.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 2: @NYJ): Gesicki caught just 1 pass in the opener after being talked up by head coach Adam Gase in the preseason. I wouldn’t expect much more production this week at the Meadowlands.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Darnold threw a pick-6 on his first NFL pass attempt, but everything after that went his way on Monday night. The Dolphins were 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA last year, and Darnold gets Jermaine Kearse back healthy this week. He should be able to duplicate what he did Monday, and that makes him an interesting option in 2-QB leagues or as a cheaper DFS play.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Keep an eye on the Pats injury updates here. Rex Burkhead surprisingly popped up on the injury report in the concussion protocol Wednesday. Michel has been getting in limited practices so far this week, and I think the Pats will push for him to play if Burkhead can’t get cleared. The Jaguars stingy defense has been vulnerable to RBs putting up fantasy points on them, and Michel has a chance at a solid debut. Saquon put up 128 scrimmage yards and a TD against these same Jaguars in week 1, and Michel should be the primary rusher if he’s able to play and Burkhead sits.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 2: @Was.): Marlon Mack has been getting in limited practices this week. If he plays, downgrade Wilkins to a bench player, but Hines should still have a role. The diminutive speedster was targeted 9 times last week in the opener, and figures to have a prominent role in the passing game regardless of Mack’s health. Wilkins remains a fairly inexpensive starting back for DFS purposes if Mack sits again, and he faces a team that was among the worst in the league in Football Outsiders’ defense DVOA stat a season ago (29th). Hines should be rostered in just about all PPR leagues with 12 or more teams.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): I’m not telling you to start Miller this week, but if you’re in a deeper league and someone dropped him, or he’s sitting out there on the waiver wire, he’s worth a pickup. Miller did a lot of things right last Sunday in Green Bay that don’t show up on the stat sheet, but coaches love. If he continues to do those things, the targets will come. You might be able to find him at the right price in dynasty leagues if he has a couple more stat lines like he posted in week 1.
WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): This is contingent on Marquise Goodwin being sidelined for week 2. Goodwin needs his blazing speed to be effective, so I doubt the 49ers will let him play through his thigh bruise if they think it hampers him at all. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday. Pettis made a spectacular TD catch filling in for Goodwin in week 1, and if he fills in again this week he likely avoids Darius Slay’s coverage. He should be an excellent cheap DFS play for week 2 if Goodwin is sidelined.
TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 2: @Chi.): Dissly had himself a game last week and is undoubtedly a hot name on the waiver wire this week. While I do believe that game will prove to be more of a fluke than a trend, I do think that Dissly has established himself as the top fantasy TE in Seattle. His main competition, Nick Vannett, has just 167 yards and 1 TD in 25 career games. Dissly had 103 and a score in just one game. He’s worth a pickup in deeper leagues, especially with so many question marks at the position this early in the season.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Thomas was targeted just twice in the opener, but he should step in as the starter with Greg Olsen sidelined by a broken foot. That should make him worth a pickup in deeper leagues even though Christian McCaffrey and Devin Funchess will demand the majority of the targets in this run-heavy offense. The matchup this week is a good one for the tight end with both of Atlanta’s starting safeties injured (Keanu Neal & Keion Jones). He’s worth a DFS dart throw in tournaments.
TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Andrews announced himself as a name to know for deeper dynasty leagues last week. He was quiet throughout the preseason, but he found his way to a 3-31 line in a game where the Ravens didn’t have to throw in the second half. While it’s true that Hayden Hurst has been out, and Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams were just as involved last week as Andrews, the Oklahoma product has more upside as a receiver than any of them. He’s worth keeping an eye on in dynasty formats, especially those with TE premium scoring.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions this week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. There are a lot of players who have questionable tags at this point in the week, and the last thing you want is to start an inactive player. Feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you want to yell at me or have any specific questions. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.