Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at week 17. For most of us, this means the fantasy season is over, and for good reason. Week 17 is typically a fantasy bloodbath. So many teams have so little to play for this week that it’s hard to predict which teams will treat it like a normal week and which won’t. To have a fantasy championship be decided in week 17 is just cruel; and yet, some leagues do it. This year, there are exactly 11 teams that can have their playoff positioning altered in week 17, and at least one of those (the Rams) has already decided to sit many of their starters.
With that in mind, this week’s breakdown will be a little different than usual. I’ll still break the players down by guys you should start, borderline guys, guys you should sit, and some sleepers, but these lists will look a little different than usual. You’re going to see some guys in the ‘Borderline’ and ‘Rookies to Sit’ sections that you aren’t used to. The Sleeper section will also be entirely made up of guys worth a dart throw this week in DFS lineups. There aren’t a ton of them though. Let’s dive in and see who has something to play for in the season’s final week…
Rookies to Start:
RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 17: @TB): Trusting Kamara this week is an easy decision. The Saints need to win this game to lock up the division title, and AK-41 totaled over 150 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs in the first meeting with Tampa. He’s scored over 15 PPR points in every game he’s been healthy for since week 7, and the matchup here is a good one. Only two teams have allowed more running back touchdowns than the Bucs this season. Kamara should be a cash game staple this week and should be in every season-long lineup still going.
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 17: @Atl.): McCaffrey’s receiving production took a bit of a hit last week with just 2 catches for 19 yards, but I like his chances of bouncing back this week in what should be a pretty good game. Atlanta needs to win to secure a playoff spot, and Carolina needs to win to have a shot at the division title. The Falcons have allowed the 14th-fewest RB fantasy points per game, but they’ve also allowed 101 running back receptions on the year, 7 more than any other team in the league. With the WR group ailing (Funchess shoulder issue, Damiere Byrd back on IR), I expect the Panthers to lean on CMC in the passing game a bit more than usual. He’s an excellent play in PPR formats and should be a great DFS option as well this week.
RB Jamaal Williams, GB (Wk. 17: @Det.): It appears that Williams will be the workhorse back in this game for Green Bay, and the matchups don’t get much better than this. The Lions have been bleeding points to RBs over the past couple months, giving up 29.3 PPR points per game to the position in the 10 games since they lost Haloti Ngata for the year. They’ve given up 112 rushing yards (4.53 ypc) and 1.2 rushing scores per game in that stretch. The only concern for Williams here is that he might be dealing with a negative game script with Detroit a 7-point favorite. As long as Aaron Jones sits, I’d expect him to see enough receiving work that it shouldn’t be a problem. Williams should be a strong option in most formats this week.
RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 17: @NYG): The efficiency for Perine has been miserable, but the usage has been there and should be again this week. The Giants have allowed the 9th-most running back points per game and rank 24th in run defense DVOA. Samaje got the start last week despite battling a groin injury, and he handled 20 touches on just 34 offensive snaps. He did suffer an Achilles injury (which is why he only played 34 snaps), but he’s practicing in full for week 17 and should see his touches go up as long as he doesn’t get hurt again. There isn’t a ton of ceiling with Perine, but the matchup and volume should make him a very likely top-20 option at RB.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Was.): The Giants’ season has been over for a long time, but they insist on trying to win more football games. They’ll be a little short-handed with Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard sidelined in week 17, so they are likely to lean on Wayne Gallman in the passing game once again. Gallman has averaged 16.3 touches and 80 scrimmage yards per game in the past 3 weeks, and more importantly for PPR formats, he’s averaged 8 targets and 6.7 catches per game in that stretch. Washington has done a pretty good job of limiting RB receiving production, but I wouldn’t be too concerned about it given what a big role Gallman should play in the passing game this week. Washington has also been getting gashed in the run game, giving up 130 yards per game and 6 rushing scores in the past 7 weeks. I’d view Gallman as a decent RB2 option in PPR formats and a great DFS option at just $4,200 on DraftKings.
RB Matt Breida, SF (Wk. 17: @LAR): Breida nearly matched Carlos Hyde last week in fantasy points despite playing about half as many snaps and handling half as many touches. I’d expect him to see at least a slightly bigger share of the work this week, and the Rams have allowed the 5th-most RB points per game this season. If he sees any bump in volume, he’ll find himself likely pushing for a top-25 RB performance this week.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): I would be all in on JuJu if the Steelers had any interest in treating this like a game they should try to win. Instead, it sounds like it will be Landry Jones under center and Stevan Ridley as the team’s lead back. I’d still expect JuJu to play much of the game with Antonio Brown sidelined again, but there is still a risk that he’s pulled early. If Big Ben does end up getting the start, JJSS is a no-brainer start, but if not, he falls more into WR3 territory. It is a pretty enticing matchup though, with the Browns ranking 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.
WRs Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 17: @Ten.): Allen Hurns is expected back this week, but Marqise Lee isn’t, and with the way these two are playing, I’d be shocked if Hurns plays a huge number of snaps. The Jaguars are in an interesting spot with head coach Doug Marrone saying they will treat this as a normal game, but their seeding is already decided. It wouldn’t be a shock if we see some Chad Henne in this one, which would likely lower the ceiling for each guy a bit. The matchup is a pretty good one, with the Titans allowing the 7th-most WR points per game, but if either guy plays limited snaps or spends a lot of time with Henne under center, they will likely find themselves as borderline WR3 options.
WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): Davis finally got on track in week 16, posting his best fantasy game of the season. He caught 6 passes on 9 targets for 91 yards. This week he gets to face off with one of the toughest WR defenses in the league, but as I mentioned above, the Jaguars don’t have anything to gain by winning this one. I’d expect some of their key defenders to play limited snaps, and the Titans will still be playing for a possible playoff berth. Even through his struggles, Davis hasn’t seen fewer than 4 targets in any game since recovering from his hamstring injury 2 months ago, and he’s seen 7+ targets in 4 of the 9 games he’s played. I think 5-60 would be a reasonable expectation this week for Corey, and maybe he finds his first career TD.
WR Mack Hollins, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): The Eagles aren’t expected to play their starters for too long in the finale, and Hollins should see plenty of run in this game. The Cowboys’ pass defense is nothing to write home about, and Hollins has managed to produce whenever the ball comes his way. For the season he’s caught more than 76% of the targets to come his way and has averaged 15.5 yards per catch. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t see at least 5+ targets.
TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 17: @LAR): Garrett Celek played limited snaps in week 16 and wasn’t targeted once while Kittle managed to score his second TD of the season. Celek isn’t listed on the injury report this week, so there’s a chance he goes back to his regular role as the lead tight end, but I think Kittle will still lead the team in snaps there. Jimmy Garoppolo has made the 49ers TEs fantasy relevant, and this week Kittle gets to face a defense that has given up 4 tight end TDs in the last 3 games and is also resting a number of their starters.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): If the Vikings officially had the number 2 seed wrapped up, I’d like Trubisky as a sleeper with the Vikes likely to sit most of their important starters. Unfortunately for Chicago, there is still a scenario where the Vikings could lose the first round bye. It is a really specific scenario: the Saints would have to lose to Tampa Bay, the Panthers would have to beat the Falcons, and the Vikings would have to lose. I think it’s really unlikely that New Orleans will lose to Tampa with the division title at stake, but I don’t expect Minnesota to chance it, especially since they play in the early slate while the other two games are both in the late afternoon. If Minnesota plays to win, their suffocating defense should shut down the Bears’ offense without much trouble.
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Kizer has totaled 7.4 fantasy points in the last 2 games combined, and the Steelers can still potentially win homefield advantage throughout the playoffs and should be at least a little motivated to win. No thank you.
QB Davis Webb, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Was.): Webb will be active in the season finale, but it appears it will be Eli Manning who gets the start. Interim head coach Steve Spagnuolo has already said that the plan is for Eli to play every snap, and I believe him. Webb might not play at all, which is kind of ridiculous given that the Giants ended Eli’s start streak to get Geno Smith 1 start.
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 17: @Den.): The Chiefs have absolutely nothing to gain by running their workhorse out there for a big snap number. They’re locked into the 4-seed already, so if Hunt is active at all, I’d only expect him to play a few series to make sure he doesn’t build up any rust before the wild card weekend. He shouldn’t be in fantasy lineups.
RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 17: @Ten.): Just as Kansas City is locked into the 4th seed, Jacksonville has the 3-seed wrapped up and has nothing to gain with a victory. Like Hunt, if Fournette plays at all it will just be a few series early on. There’s no way you can rely on him this week despite claims from Doug Marrone that the Jaguars will treat this like any other game.
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Mixon is practicing as of Thursday, but there’s still no guarantee that he’ll suit up this weekend for the finale. He’s left each of the last two games he’s played with injury early on, and Gio Bernard has played well. If the Bengals are going to go all-out in an effort to play spoiler to Baltimore, I’d expect a pretty even split of work between Mixon and Gio if both are active. The Ravens aren’t exactly a defense to fear (they’ve allowed the 13th-most RB points per game), but the Bengals’ offense remains mediocre at best and a split in volume would make both guys tough to trust.
RBs Aaron Jones & Devante Mays, GB (Wk. 17: @Det.): Jones looks like a longshot to even play this week, and we haven’t seen anything from Mays yet this season. Mays has totaled negative-1 yards on 3 carries and lost a fumble this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Devante’s out-touched by FB Aaron Ripkowski in this one. If you’re looking for a guy to play from the GB backfield against the Lions’ awful run defense this week, the choice is Jamaal Williams.
RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): I was thinking that Clement might be a strong option for this week with the Eagles having nothing to play for and resting Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount, but there’s a strong possibility they rest Clement as well. It’s looking likely that it will be mostly Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner handling the running back snaps for Philadelphia this Sunday. They may mix in their main RBs early on, but there won’t be enough work for any of those backs to be trusted this week. The best DFS play of the group is probably Smallwood. I’m not sure that they will have 5 running backs active, so if one of Smallwood or Barner is inactive, the other is the best DFS play.
RB Tion Green, DET (Wk. 17: vs. GB): The Lions have a pretty good matchup this week with the Packers, who have allowed the 7th-most RB points per game this season (and at least 27 PPR points to RBs in 5 of their past 6), but Green will continue to play second fiddle to Riddick and the matchup actually seems to suit him better. While the Packers have given up 160.5 points to running backs in the past 6 contests, just 43% of those points have been put up on the ground. The rest have been receiving points. Tion Green has not caught a pass all year. While you may be tempted to trot him out this week after his 10-point showing in Cincy, I think he’ll be hard-pressed to duplicate it.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): No team allows fewer running back points per game than the Vikings, and as mentioned above with Trubisky, Minnesota still needs to take care of business here and should be playing their starters. Cohen is usually a boom-or-bust flex option anyway. So facing the toughest RB defense in the league makes using him a bad idea. Only 2 teams have allowed fewer RB receiving yards than the Vikings.
RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): With the season already long over for the Colts, Mack still hasn’t seen much of a bump in playing time. He played just 15 offensive snaps in last week’s loss to Baltimore, and there isn’t much guarantee he plays more this week. There are better options out there than Mack in his limited role.
RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Chargers are still fighting for a playoff spot, but that’s actually a bad thing for Ekeler this week. Melvin Gordon is fighting through an ankle sprain, but I would expect him to suit up in this game with the season on the line. Ekeler has been dealing with a hand injury of his own, and was limited to just special teams last week. He’s got his hand in a cast and will be unable to catch passes out of the backfield. Because of this, Branden Oliver would get the start if Melvin Gordon is unable to play. I’d avoid Ekeler even in that scenario.
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 17: @NE): It would be nice if the Jets were able to give McGuire some extended run in the regular season finale, but they could have done that at any point in the last several weeks and haven’t. He has just 19 touches in the past 5 weeks, and expecting any more out of him this week would likely be a mistake.
WR Chris Godwin, TB (Wk. 17: vs. NO): Godwin posted another strong performance last week in a starting opportunity as DeSean Jackson sat with an ankle injury, but Godwin sustained an ankle injury of his own in that game. He’s not practicing as of Thursday, so there is a real chance he sits this week. DeSean Jackson, on the other hand, is practicing and looks like he’ll be able to play. Even if he suits up, Godwin likely won’t play nearly as many snaps as he did last week and may even lose some work to Adam Humphries if the Bucs don’t want to overdo it with Godwin.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 17: @Mia.): There is a chance Zay gets more involved this week, but he shouldn’t be doing so from any of your lineups. He has zero catches in the last 3 weeks despite playing 70% or more of the offensive snaps in each of the last 2. The fact that he costs more than the minimum in DraftKings is a joke.
WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): As mentioned with Ekeler, the fact that the Chargers are still fighting for a playoff spot likely means the reserves aren’t going to see extended opportunities in week 17. Williams has seen just 6 targets in the past 5 weeks. There is no reason to fire him up against the Raiders.
TE Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI (Wk. 17: @Sea.): RSJ has faced two of the worst TE defenses in the league in the past 2 weeks and has just 2 catches for 11 yards to show for it. He played a season-high 54% of the offensive snaps in week 16 and didn’t record a catch. Clearly he doesn’t have the same connection with Drew Stanton that he does with Blaine Gabbert. There are better options is you’re looking for a sleeper tight end this week.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Njoku has done next to nothing since his breakout game against the Chargers in week 13, and there is no reason to expect that to change this week. The Steelers have allowed the 2nd fewest TE points per game in the league.
TE Adam Shaheen, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): The Vikings don’t have much to play for, but Shaheen has missed the last two games with a chest injury and appears iffy at best for this one. Minnesota has allowed the 3rd-fewest TE points per game, so even if Shaheen is able to play there isn’t really a good reason to try him in any format.
TE Jonnu Smith, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): As long as Delanie Walker is playing, there’s no reason to trust Jonnu Smith in fantasy. He has just 4 catches for 38 yards total in the past 8 weeks, and the Titans are still alive for a playoff spot, so they have no reason to sit Delanie now.
Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Patrick Mahomes, KC (Wk. 17: @Den.): The matchup isn’t a great one for Mahomes’ first NFL start, but the Broncos’ defense isn’t what it once was. Denver has allowed the 15th-fewest QB points for the year, and may be throwing in the towel on this season. They let Kirk Cousins throw for 299 yards and 3 scores last week. They’ve given up 12+ points to the opposing QB in 13 of the 15 games they’ve played this year, and 15+ in 9 of them. Mahomes makes for an interesting streamer in 2-QB leagues, and would be a fun play in a limited slate DFS tournament. He probably won’t be playing with a full complement of weapons, but he should be comfortable with the 2nd-stringers that he typically works with in practice.
RB Brian Hill, CIN (Wk. 17: @Bal.): I mentioned above that I could see an even split of the work between Gio Bernard and Joe Mixon out of the Bengals’ backfield this week if both guys are active, but if one or both sits out, Hill should see some extended run. The Bengals’ season has been over for a while now, so it might make sense to see what Hill can give them. Keep an eye on the updates throughout the week. Hill would be worth a dart throw in limited slate DFS tournaments if it looks like one of those two will be out.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 17: vs. GB): Fresh off an 8-target game, Golladay gets to square off with a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 8th-most WR points per game. The Packers have been more vulnerable to short throws, so Golden Tate is the best play in the Lions WR group this week, but Golladay costs just $3,300 on DraftKings and played 95% of the offensive snaps last Sunday. He’s got a chance to end his season on a high note this week.
WRs Trent Taylor & Kendrick Bourne, SF (Wk. 17: @LAR): The 49ers didn’t just go on a 4-game winning streak to take week 17 off. Look for them to go all-out in an effort to get to 6-10 and 5-0 in the Jimmy Garoppolo era. That means Taylor and Bourne will play their normal roles against a team that is sitting a lot of their key players. For Taylor that has meant 8+ PPR points in 3 of the last 4 games. Bourne hasn’t been quite as consistent, but he did put up a 4-85 line against Tennessee and has been targeted 11 times in the past 2 weeks. Both are worth considering as a dart throw in limited DFS slates. Marquise Goodwin remains the best option in this passing attack though.
WR Josh Reynolds, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. SF): The Rams have already ruled out Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp and Todd Gurley for their week 17 tilt with the 49ers. I’d be surprised if Sammy Watkins or Robert Woods play more than a couple series. That should give Reynolds plenty of playing time in a game where the 49ers are actually favored to win in Los Angeles. The Rams should be throwing it a decent amount. Sean Mannion isn’t the best QB out there, but Sean McVay’s offense has proven to be a pretty good one so far this season. Reynolds is nothing more than a dart throw in DFS tournaments, but he’s one that has already posted 2 6-target games in weeks where Watkins and Kupp were active. I’d expect him to lead the Rams in targets this week (if it isn’t backup RB Malcolm Brown).
WR Ryan Switzer, DAL (Wk. 17: @Phi.): The Cowboys don’t really have much to play for this week, and Cole Beasley is listed as questionable with an illness as of Friday. Switzer is the most likely option to take over in the slot, and in a game where Dez and Terrance Williams might get pulled before it’s over, Switzer might be the best bet on the team to play a full complement of snaps if Beasley sits. Beasley has drawn 13 targets in the last 3 weeks.
TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. SF): The Rams will have to throw the ball somewhere, and Everett is one of the few guys who should get extended run this week that has some production under his belt already. I’d expect the leading weapons this week for LA will be Malcolm Brown, Josh Reynolds, Pharoh Cooper, Tavon Austin and Everett (maybe Tyler Higbee as well). Among those players listed, only Higbee and Everett have more than 100 receiving yards for the year. I’d expect the number 2 TE Everett to have a better connection with backup QB Sean Mannion. The 49ers have allowed 14-113-2 to tight ends in the last 2 weeks. This is as good a week as any to take a shot on Everett.
That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully I’ve helped you navigate some tough weeks this year with your rookies. If I did, make sure to come back next year when I start covering the 2018 rookie crop. As usual, if you do have to set a lineup this week or play any DFS lineups, keep an eye on the injury reports and weather reports throughout the week, and most importantly keep an eye on any updates about players who will be rested. 21 teams have nothing to gain with a win this week. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about any of the info above, feel free to hit me up on twitter to do so (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! With the NFL Combine completed, the offseason is in full swing. Trades are happening, vets are being released or retiring, and NFL front offices have got the media spin machine up and running ahead of the start of the league year next week. Despite the flurry of NFL news we’ve been seeing in recent weeks, there is still plenty more news to come before the NFL Draft. Since so much of a rookie's outlook can depend on landing spot and how early they're drafted, it would be premature to rank the rookies for fantasy purposes at this point. That doesn't mean we have nothing to talk about though. We've seen plenty of the top prospects take part in the Senior Bowl, and just about all of them took part in the Combine in some shape or form. This week, I wanted to take a look at which prospects have helped and hurt their stock the most so far this offseason. Let's dive in...
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma – Stock Up: Mayfield backed up a strong week at the Senior Bowl with another strong week at the Combine. Questions will still abound about his size and his maturity level, but I think he's secured himself as a top-5 pick in the upcoming draft. Mayfield measured a little taller than expected at the Combine, and threw the ball well in drills and demonstrated solid arm strength. The film on Mayfield is solid, but there have been several questions about him that the film doesn't answer. He has at least started answering some of those questions based on the feedback being put out by some scouts and personnel people in Indy.
Josh Allen, Wyoming - Stock Down: Josh Allen has been talked about as a potential top overall pick in the draft for weeks now, but with the scrutiny that comes with scouting season, and the Senior Bowl and Combine weeks, more of the warts of his game have been showing through. Yes, he has a big arm and ran well in the 40-yard dash, but his inaccuracy has been on full display, often misfiring badly when he does miss a throw. People see the athleticism and the cannon and want to project him to be Andrew Luck or Carson Wentz, but more of the scouts are starting to see the possibility that he ends up closer to Kyle Boller. You'll hear about Allen in the top-5 a bunch between now and draft day, but don't be surprised if he slips out of the top-10.
Sam Darnold, USC – Stock Down: Darnold elected not to do any throwing at the Combine but elected to do the athletic testing, which he showed very poorly in. Sam tested in the 22nd percentile of SPARQ scores. His lack of mobility is a little troubling for a guy who can be kind of a gunslinger at times. If he can't escape the pocket, is he going to throw into to trouble when pressured? Darnold is still likely to be a first-round pick in the Draft and can still impress at USC's pro day, but as a guy who is being projected as a possible #1 overall pick, the Combine didn't do him any favors.
Saquon Barkley, Penn State – Stock Up: Barkley was already pretty much a consensus for the 1.01 pick in rookie drafts before the Combine, but his performance in Indy should have converted any doubters. Barkley weighed in at 233 pounds, and ran a blistering 4.40 40-yard dash and posted the best vertical jump of any RB at the Combine (41”). To have that kind of explosion and athleticism at Barkley's size is special, and the work he put on film at Penn State already had him as the best back in this class. If you have the first pick in a rookie draft, you'd be a fool not to take Saquon. If you really don't want him, there is bound to be someone in your league who does and will pay a king's ransom for him.
Nick Chubb, Georgia – Stock Up: Chubb was overshadowed by the incredible numbers Barkley put up in Indy, but he had an impressive week himself. Chubb ran faster than expected at 4.52 in the 40 and showed more explosion than expected with a 38.5”vertical jump. He also showed his strength by matching the impressive 29 bench press reps that Barkley put up. While Saquon and Derrius Guice are widely considered to be the top 2 running backs in this class, there are a handful of backs behind them that are grouped very closely together, and Chubb did a great job of helping himself stand out among that group. He should go in the top half of the first round in most rookie drafts.
Ronald Jones II, USC – Stock Down: Jones saw his stock start to slip even before the combine as scouts started to point out his lack of prowess as a between-the-tackles runner, and his lack of receiving production in college. He also seemed undersized to be an every-down back in the NFL. He could have really helped himself with a strong showing at the Combine, but it was not to be. He weighed in at just 205 pounds. Only 7% of all running backs 5'11” or taller at the Combine in the past 15 years have weighed 205 or less (per @GrahamBarfield), and the list doesn't include much success outside of Jamaal Charles. Jones could have really helped himself with a fast 40 time, but he pulled up with a hamstring issue during his run and ran a 4.66. He can still help himself by running a quality time at his pro day, but as of now, it's hard not to view Jones as being towards the tail end of the top-10 rookie backs.
Bo Scarbrough, Alabama – Stock Up: There hasn't been a ton of buzz around Scarbrough so far this offseason, but he changed that at the Combine. Bo has mostly been viewed by the scouting community as a physical grinder who wasn't overly athletic, but he changed that perception in a big way last week. Bo ran a 4.52 40-yard dash, and also stunned with a 40”vertical (2nd only to Saquon) and a 10'9” broad jump (best among RBs). He also was better than expected in receiving drills in Indy. He went from being a guy that not many people were excited about to someone who may wind up a top-8 RB in this class.
Kamryn Pettway, Auburn – Stock Down: Like Scarbrough, Pettway also came into Indianapolis with a reputation of being a physical runner, but his measurable numbers didn't do him any favors. He weighed in at the same size as Saquon Barkley, but he ran just 4.75 in the 40-yard dash. That's basically fullback speed. He may wind up undrafted despite posting a 1,200-yard season in just 10 games in the bruising SEC a couple years ago. He shouldn't be on your fantasy radar.
Royce Freeman, Oregon – Stock Up: Freeman has long been viewed as one of the better backs in this class, and he tested better at the Combine than expected. Freeman ran a 4.55 40-yard dash and displayed some agility with a respectable 6.90 in the 3-cone drill. He also looked smoother than expected in receiving drills. Landing spot will be a big deal for Freeman, but if the fit is right, he could push for a spot in the top 5 or 6 backs in this class.
Chase Edmonds, Fordham – Stock Up: Edmonds probably isn't a guy that's been on your radar, but he posted some eye-opening numbers at the Combine that could make him a sneaky mid-round rookie pick in dynasty leagues. Edmonds stands just 5'9” and weighs 205, but he managed to bench press 225 lbs 19 times. He also had the best time in the 3-cone drill of all of the backs that participated and posted a respectable 4.55 40-yard dash. Edmonds will also get a boost from his versatility, as he worked out at wide receiver as well as running back. His skill set is reminiscent of Dion Lewis, and it wouldn't surprise me if he wound up in New England as a replacement for the free agent back on the Pats’ roster.
DJ Moore, Maryland – Stock Up: Moore came into the Combine with some question marks about his size, and he actually measured in a little bigger than expected at 6’0” and 210 pounds. Even more importantly for DJ, he tested very well athletically and aced all of the on-field drills as well. His 4.42 40-yard dash was among the fastest WR times there, and he showed some explosion with a 39.5” vertical and an 11’ broad jump. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. called him the most impressive WR in Indy. He should have at least cemented himself as a top-3 WR in this class.
Auden Tate, Florida State – Stock Down: Tate is a big, physical WR with strong hands, but his athleticism at the Combine was a disappointment. Scouts were disappointed when fellow Seminole Kelvin Benjamin ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at the Combine a few years ago, and Tate was even slower than that, registering a 4.68. He also had a less than impressive 9’4” broad jump. He’ll still be a red zone weapon at the NFL level and will likely be drafted in your rookie drafts as a top-10 WR option, but his lack of athleticism certainly hurts what his pro ceiling may look like.
DJ Chark, LSU – Stock Up: Chark put on a show in Indianapolis, posting the best 40 time among the WRs (4.34), and also tallying a 40” vertical and 10’9” in the broad jump. Chark was a popular sleeper pick among some in the fantasy community, but he won’t be as much of a secret anymore. He may get a benefit out of coming from LSU, a school that has a reputation for their receivers ascending when they get to the NFL. The list of LSU receivers since the start of the Les Miles era to post more receiving yards in a season as a pro than they did in any college season includes Dwayne Bowe, Brandon LaFell, Rueben Randle, and Odell Beckham Jr. That list doesn’t even include Jarvis Landry, who has put up 400 receptions in his first 4 seasons in the NFL. Although Les Miles is gone from LSU, Chark’s career there started with him still there. Chark could be a top-5 WR in this class.
Calvin Ridley, Alabama – Stock Down: Ridley has been expected to be the first wide receiver taken in the NFL Draft pretty much since the Super Bowl ended, but that may be changing as the offseason process goes on. He tested very poorly in Indianapolis, He came in a little lighter than expected at 189 pounds, and while his 4.43 40-yard dash was strong, he tested so poorly in the jumping and agility drills that his SPARQ score puts him in just the 7th percentile of athletes, worse than any other WR at the Combine. His status as the WR1 in this class is in serious doubt based on what he did in Indy.
Deon Cain, Clemson – Stock Up: Cain has been a little bit of a polarizing prospect in some scouting circles. A lot of people look at Cain as just the next in the line of Clemson WRs to go to the NFL, following Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, and Mike Williams (well, the jury’s still out on Williams). It’s not hard to see why. When a program has a track record like Clemson does, you see the size, production, and athleticism and it’s easy to project Cain as the next in line, but some scouts that have started breaking down Cain’s film are finding more holes in his game than those that preceded him. It’s because of those doubters that Cain actually helped himself in Indy. He didn’t blow the doors off the athletic testing (was just a 34th percentile SPARQ athlete despite a 4.43 40-yard dash), but he looked more polished as a receiver in the drills than a lot of scouts had been seeing on film. He drew praise from former star wide receiver Steve Smith, who spoke highly of the way he caught the ball and how smooth he looked in and out of breaks in the Combine drills. I think he helped himself enough that he should be a top-10 WR in this class.
Tavares Martin, Washington State – Stock Down: Martin was already looking like a 3rd-day pick due to off-field issues, but his Combine numbers confirmed that he’ll be an undrafted free agent. He was expected to push for a sub-4.5 40-yard dash but instead clocked in at a terrible 4.80. He also registered a less than impressive 31.5” vertical jump. Martin was supposed to be a troubled player with upside due to his athleticism. If he doesn’t have that athleticism, there isn’t really a place for him in the NFL.
Mike Gesicki, Penn State – Stock Up: While Saquon Barkley stole the show in Indy, his college teammate Gesicki may have been more impressive. Gesicki measured in at an imposing 6’5” and 247 pounds, and he performed historically well in the athletic testing, finishing in the 99th percentile in SPARQ scores. Only Vernon Davis and Dustin Keller have ever tested better at the Combine at the tight end position. South Dakota State’s Dallas Goedert had been getting some traction as the top fantasy tight end in this class, but as Goedert sat out most of the Combine with a hamstring injury, Gesicki took advantage. The Penn State product has already shown that he can be a red zone threat and can make tough catches, but his testing numbers will push him into the conversation for the TE1 in this class.
Troy Fumagalli, Wisconsin – Stock Down: Fumagalli wasn’t considered to be on the same level as Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst as a prospect before the Combine, but a strong showing could have really helped his stock. Instead, he posted the fewest bench reps for a tight end (14) and didn’t participate in any other drills. He’ll have a chance to improve how he’s viewed at Wisconsin’s pro day, but he’s got a tough act to follow after many of the top tight ends impressed in Indy. Fumagalli is at best the TE5 of this class right now.
Jaylen Samuels, NC State – Stock Up: Samuels is listed here because he tested with the tight ends in Indianapolis, but his best case scenario is that he will land with a creative coach and be used as a Swiss army knife, splitting time between TE, RB, WR, and H-Back. He’s undersized to play tight end, standing just 5’11”, but he performed well in the athletic testing. He matched Mike Gesicki’s 4.54 40-yard dash and managed to throw up 18 bench reps and a 10’1” broad jump. Samuels looks like he can be an x-factor kind of player in today’s NFL if he lands in the right spot. He could be a sneaky 2nd or 3rd round pick in rookie drafts if the landing spot is a good one.
That's all I've got for now. I'll be back after free agency is a little more settled to talk about ideal landing spots for some of the top rookies ahead of the draft. Things can still change for some of these rookies between now and draft day, but it doesn't hurt to take stock of where they are now. If you have any thoughts or feedback on the info above, don't be a stranger. Reach out on Twitter to let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Otherwise, sit back and enjoy one of the wildest NFL offseasons we’ve seen in years.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've almost made it all the way through NFL Draft season, and Thursday night we can finally start to put all of the smokescreens, misinformation, and mock drafts behind us as we learn where these players are really going...but first, let's do just a little bit more speculating. The information you're about to read below isn't a mock draft. It isn't an indication of where these players are going to be drafted. It's simply me trying to fit the puzzle pieces together in a way that would be most beneficial to each of the players for their career development and long-term fantasy upside.
I will be posting breakdowns of the RB, WR and TE positions in the coming hours, but with the QBs in particular, a few of these landing spots have just about zero chance of actually happening without some really surprising trades. That's going to happen when a QB-needy team like Buffalo isn't a good landing spot for anyone. The Bills are going to draft a QB and will probably trade up to do it, but their weapons are so bad at this point I wouldn't want any QB saddled with that situation. With all of that in mind, here are my favorite landing spots for the top QBs in the 2018 draft.
(Player, College – Favorite Landing Spot)
Josh Rosen, UCLA - New York Giants: This landing spot would be a good one for Rosen, and for the Giants. New York is widely expected to draft Saquon Barkley at this point, but Rosen would be a better choice. The Giants don't plan on picking this high again any time soon, and Eli Manning is 37 years old and has led the team to just one winning season in the past 5 years. The time to put a succession plan in place is now.
Rosen is the safest QB in this draft, and the one who fits the Giants' offense best. He's a pure pocket passer who will play within the structure of the scheme, much like Eli, and he can throw with accuracy to all 3 levels of the field. He'll have exciting weapons in Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram that will give him QB1 upside as soon as he takes over as starter. There's been a lot of talk about Rosen's attitude and varied interests outside of football being an issue for him, but I think that's nonsense. His personality kind of reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, and that hasn't been a problem for Rodgers' game at the NFL level. As a passer, the more apt comparison is Matt Ryan. If the Giants select Rosen, I think their QB position will be secured for the next decade.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma – Cleveland Browns: Mayfield's name has been popping up lately as a potential pick for the Browns at number 1, and that's who I hope they go with. If it isn't Mayfield, they should certainly go with Sam Darnold over Josh Allen. The reason I like Mayfield is because the Browns have the pieces to install more elements of a spread offense like the one Mayfield thrived in at Oklahoma.
Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku make for a formidable group of receiving threats, and Duke Johnson is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield as well. Gordon and Coleman each have experience in a spread offense from their time at Baylor. The Browns also have a veteran mobile QB on the roster in Tryod Taylor who can help Mayfield learn some of the nuance of the position at the NFL level. I would expect Tyrod to open the season as the starter, but Mayfield should take over at some point near midseason and never look back.
Sam Darnold, USC - Los Angeles Chargers: This pairing is highly unlikely to become reality unless the Chargers make a big trade up, but it's one that is fun to think about. The biggest strength of Darnold's game is his ability to make accurate throws from difficult angles when the defensive pressure causes him to throw without his usual mechanics. The two NFL QBs who do this best are Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford. Since Stafford is 30 and Rivers is going to turn 37 this year, LA is the team that will need a replacement sooner. It's hard to say how many more years Rivers will play before deciding to hang it up and spend more time with his 7 kids (seriously, he has 7 of them), but playing behind Rivers for a year or two could really help Darnold hit his ceiling as a QB.
Darnold has a ton of upside, but he has a tendency to be a bit of a gunslinger and makes some questionable decisions. Rivers would be a great mentor to help Darnold learn to rein that in a little bit, and the weapons in LA should be good for several years with Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams around. It's easy to see the Favre-ian upside in Darnold, but if he doesn't improve his decision making, he could just as easily be the next Jay Cutler or worse.
Lamar Jackson, Louisville - New Orleans Saints: Jackson has more fantasy upside than any other QB in this class thanks to his rushing ability. He has the speed and elusiveness of Michael Vick, and is far more advanced as a passer entering the league than Vick was after playing in a pro-style offense under Bobby Petrino at Louisville.
The best-case scenario for Jackson would be landing on a team with a creative offensive coach who will build an offense around him to best maximize his considerable talents. There are 3 teams with coaching staffs that I would trust to do that: New England, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. The Eagles have Carson Wentz and Nick Foles still, so they don't have enough need at QB to spend the draft capital it'll take to land Jackson.
The other two teams should both be looking to life beyond their current Hall of Fame QBs. Either one would be a good landing spot for Jackson, but I give the nod to New Orleans because of the weapons he'll have to work with. In New England, Amendola is gone, Cooks is gone, Julian Edelman will be 32 years old, and Gronk is already hinting at retirement. The Saints have young stars in Alvin Kamara and Mike Thomas, and added another promising youngster in Cam Meredith. Because of that edge in surrounding talent, New Orleans is the place I most want to see Lamar.
Josh Allen, Wyoming – Pittsburgh Steelers: If NFL Draft scouts weren't so in love with size and raw arm strength from QBs, Allen to Pittsburgh might actually be realistic. Instead, the consensus is that Allen will be off the board in the top 10 picks, possibly even at number one. The Steelers, who currently pick at 28, aren't moving up to get him. Still, I think this is the spot that would best serve him in making good on his potential. Ben Roethlisberger was already talking about retirement after the 2016 season, so it's not hard to envision him walking away in the next year or two. Similarly to Allen, Roethlisberger is a big, physical, strong-armed QB who played his college ball in a smaller conference. He'd be a great player for Allen to learn from while he works on his game as the number 2 QB.
Pittsburgh is also a landing spot that wouldn't have nearly as much pressure as the other places he could go...the pressure of being a savior in Cleveland, the pressure of the media scrutiny in New York, or the pressure of having the franchise's hero QB in the front office in Denver. Buffalo is another spot that would lack that pressure, but Buffalo doesn't have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster or a winning culture. Although this landing spot won't happen, I think it would be ideal for Allen.
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State – Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals' offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has said that they will tailor the offense to fit the quarterback they end up with, but McCoy's NFL roots trace back to the vertical passing 'Air Coryell' offense and Mason Rudolph has better accuracy on the deep ball than he does on short and intermediate throws.
The Cardinals could use an upgrade in weapons, but Larry Fitzgerald and a healthy David Johnson are a good starting point. With Sam Bradford slated to start, Rudolph likely will get some action this year when Bradford inevitably misses games. Rudolph is the best QB in the draft after the group of guys expected to go in the first round.
Kyle Lauletta, Richmond - New England Patriots: Lauletta is accurate and is a quick decision maker that really fits what the Patriots' offense does. His arm strength is questionable, but so was Brady's when he came into the league. The things Lauletta does well are a great fit for the scheme the Pats already run. He's also great in the play-action game, makes good decisions, and maneuvers the pocket very well while going through his progressions. I fully believe Brady will play out the two years remaining on his contract before he retires, and drafting Lauletta would allow for a seamless transition when that happens. He's got the upside to be a franchise QB.
Luke Falk, Washington State – Washington Redskins: Falk has a bit of a transition and learning curve ahead of him after playing his college career in Mike Leach's 'Air Raid' offense which is pretty much exclusively a shotgun spread offense. Playing under center and learning more pro concepts will be important parts of a successful transition. Falk lacks the arm strength to throw deep consistently, and current Washington starter Alex Smith is usually too risk averse to go deep himself, but has managed to put together a strong NFL career despite that. Smith is the ideal player for Falk to learn from as he makes the transition, and with Smith being almost 34 years old, he's a player Falk could supplant as starter in a couple years. He has the upside to be a similar game-managing starting QB who can win if surrounded with the right pieces and scheme.
That's all I've got for the QBs. I'm sure you'll disagree with at least some of what I've said above. Don't be a stranger; reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Be sure to check out the landing spot pieces on the RB, WR, and TE positions as well. They're sure to have just as many things you disagree with as this one. Enjoy the draft!
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! In case you didn't know it, the NFL Draft is almost upon us. We can finally put all of the mock drafts and misdirection by NFL front offices behind us over the next couple days. We will be able to quit guessing who is going where and start assessing how the new pieces fit with their new teams, but we're not quite there yet. So, I wanted to take a stab at picking my favorite landing spots for each of the top backs in the draft before it's too late. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the backs to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. One other quick note: view this list as a complete picture rather than just looking at each player individually. For example, it's possible you think the Colts' RB job is the best available spot, and therefore it could be the best fit for 3 or 4 of the backs on the list. I'm only listing one back for each spot, so if I think the best fit in Indy is Nick Chubb, that means the starting job in Indy is crossed off the list for everyone else. With that in mind, let's dive into my favorite landing spots for the top RBs in the 2018 draft:
(Player, College - Favorite Landing Spot)
Nick Chubb, Georgia - Indianapolis Colts: Since I already gave this one away in the intro, I figure I may as well start here. Chubb is a special talent who could be a three-down back at the NFL level, and the Colts have a glaring need at the position. Indy's lack of receiving talent aside from TY Hilton will allow teams to stack the box at times, and Chubb is a more physical runner between the tackles than Saquon Barkley. He's a huge upgrade over Frank Gore who had the role last year, while also playing with a similar style to Gore. I believe Chubb will be a capable receiver at the NFL level, but if he falters in that part of his game the Colts will have a built-in fallback in Marlon Mack that they can use on 3rd downs. If Andrew Luck comes back healthy, Chubb's running ability would give the Colts the balance to be one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.
Saquon Barkley, Penn State - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs would be ecstatic if Barkley managed to fall to them at pick 7. That's extremely unlikely to happen with the Browns, Giants, Colts and Jets all picking ahead of them. Despite that, I think Tampa is the place where Barkley would shine the brightest. Head coach Dirk Koetter runs a vertical passing scheme and has plenty of deep threat weapons in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard. The deep passing threat will open up plenty of room for Barkley to operate both as a runner and a receiver. Despite his 233-pound frame and the 29 bench press reps he put up at the combine, Barkley does his best work in space rather than banging between the tackles. He'd have plenty of space to operate in Tampa's system. He also has the prerequisite pass protection skills necessary for a running back in a scheme like this one. The last time Koetter had a fully healthy three-down back was 2015, when Doug Martin totaled nearly 1,700 scrimmage yards and 7 TDs. Saquon is a much better receiver than Martin. He'd have legitimate top-5 RB upside in year 1 if he ended up in Tampa.
Derrius Guice, LSU - Cleveland Browns: Like Nick Chubb, Guice wasn't used a lot as a receiver in college, so there are some questions about whether or not he can be a true three-down back in the NFL. I think he can be, but like the Colts the Browns have a built-in answer to those questions in Duke Johnson. Guice is a physical runner who could very well wind up being the best back in this class, and Cleveland won't have to take him in the top four picks of the draft to get him.
Sony Michel, Georgia - Detroit Lions: The run game has been a problem in Detroit for a long time. They've had just one back break 1,000 rushing yards in a season since 2004 (Reggie Bush in 2013 with 1,006 yards). It's time to fix the problem, and Michel may be the way to do it. Part of the issue is that the Lions haven't had a true three-down back since maybe Kevin Jones (the back who broke 1,000 yards in '04). They've utilized a pass-first offense for most of the time that Matt Stafford has been the QB, so they've focused on getting running backs who are adept receivers. They've had guys like Reggie Bush, and Ameer Abdullah, and Theo Riddick, and Jahvid Best. The thing about Michel is that he is an adept receiver (one of the best in this class), but also an excellent runner, even between the tackles despite a slight frame for a feature back. Anyone who watched him run against Alabama in the National Championship could regale you with stories of his skill as an inside runner. He could have just the right combination of skills to finally give the Lions the feature back they've been seeking for over a decade.
Rashaad Penny, San Diego State - Denver Broncos: Denver is in need of a feature back, and Penny certainly checks most of the boxes you look for. He's big enough, fast enough, and a skilled receiver that can challenge the defense downfield. Denver was long known for the zone blocking scheme in the run game from the Mike Shanahan and Gary Kubiak days, but they have switched to a gap blocking scheme in more recent years, and this scheme is a much better fit for Penny. The one area of his game that could trip Penny up is his pass protection. If he struggles with this early on, it could keep him off the field. If he is able to improve that part of his game quickly, he could be a big-time producer in year one in Denver.
Ronald Jones, USC - New York Jets: Jones has the speed to be the home run threat the Jets currently lack at RB. We know by now that Isaiah Crowell is no more than just an average starter, and Bilal Powell has failed for years to win the featured role. RoJo is a dangerous runner who can put pressure on the edges of the defense to contain him. One question with Jones is his ability as a receiver. He wasn't asked to catch the ball much at USC, so it remains to be seen how good his skill set as a receiver is. If he shows skill as a pass catcher early on, his upside could be huge.
Royce Freeman, Oregon - Washington Redskins: At the very least, Washington needs an upgrade to their early down running game, and Freeman would provide an upgrade over Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley. Washington loves what Chris Thompson brings as a 3rd-down back, so Freeman would likely start out with just early-down work, but he catches the ball well enough to eventually establish himself as the every down guy. He'd have monster upside in year one if he landed in Washington and something happened to Thompson.
Bo Scarbrough, Alabama - Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey's performance last year made it clear that it would be an uphill battle for him to ever become a workhorse back in the NFL. He averaged just 3.7 yards per carry while splitting time with Jonathan Stewart. He needs to be complemented by a power runner. The Panthers spent the 8th overall pick in the draft last year on CMC, so there is no way they would invest the kind of draft capital it would require to land a Guice, Chubb, or even a Royce Freeman to find that power back. Enter Bo Scarbrough. Bo is viewed as a one-dimensional sledgehammer of a runner, but he surprised in a big way with his athletic testing at the combine, showing explosion with a 40" vertical and 10'9" broad jump. Bo is exactly the type of player the Panthers need, and they can get him at a price that makes sense for them.
Kerryon Johnson, Auburn - Miami Dolphins: Johnson's skill as a physical runner isn't that far behind that of Nick Chubb and Derrius Guice. Kenyan Drake doesn't profile as a lead back at his size, and Frank Gore likely has just one more NFL season left in him. Gore would be a great mentor to help Johnson learn the nuance of playing the RB position in the NFL, and Drake and Kerryon would make a formidable tandem by late in 2018 or the start of the 2019 season.
Kalen Ballage, Arizona State - San Francisco 49ers: Ballage is one of the most unique prospects in this class. He has the size, speed and strength to be a special runner, but he really struggles with vision and patience, and doesn't always run with the power that he should. He's also one of the best receiving backs in this class. The 49ers are the team I think is best suited to take advantage of his skills. They don't have a back of Ballage's size that they can use as a goal-line and short yardage back, and Ballage is good enough as a receiver for the 49ers to use him in those spots and still be creative and unpredictable. If he ever develops as a runner, he also might be able to unseat Jerick McKinnon as the starter down the road.
Nyheim Hines, NC State - Philadelphia Eagles: It looks like Darren Sproles will be calling it a career, and even if he isn't, he's no longer under contract with the Eagles. The Eagles have an interesting group of RBs with Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood, but none of those guys have the game-breaking speed that Hines does. Hines isn't going to step in as a major part of the offense anywhere as a rookie, but the Eagles have innovative enough coaches to find ways to get his speed involved, and his role will grow if he has early success.
John Kelly, Tennessee - New York Giants: Most NYG fans are expecting the team to land Saquon Barkley with the second pick, but if you read my QB landing spot piece prior to this, you know I think Josh Rosen should be the pick there. I really like Kelly as a RB alternative for the Giants. Kelly's a violent runner with agility, and he's also an adept receiver who excels in the screen game. He's also sound in pass protection, which is important since both Eli Manning and Josh Rosen aren't very mobile. He could stand to be a little more explosive, but I think the team that lands Kelly will be pleasantly surprised.
Mark Walton, Miami (FL) - Arizona Cardinals: Walton was used as a feature back in college at Miami, but that will never be his role in the NFL. He's much more likely to be utilized as a 3rd-down back at the NFL level. I like Arizona as a landing spot because he'll be able to see the field a bit spelling David Johnson early on, and he won't have the pressure of being a key cog in the offense before he's ready. He'd also benefit a lot from having Johnson around to learn from. Walton has some upside, but he's more likely to realize his potential if he's not thrust into a big role right away.
Justin Jackson, Northwestern - Pittsburgh Steelers: Jackson would be a fantastic choice as Le'Veon Bell insurance. Bell and the Steelers still haven't hammered out a long-term extension, and with his current salary and asking price, the Steelers may choose to move on from Bell after the 2018 season. Jackson is one of the most underrated backs in this class. He won't cost too high of a pick for Pittsburgh, but has a chance to be a feature back with the playing style of Jamaal Charles. Jackson has shown that he can handle the rigors of a workhorse role despite not being a bigger back. He was an ultra-productive 4-year starter at Northwestern, tallying 1,388 scrimmage yards as a freshman, and at least 1,500 in each of his 3 other seasons. He will surprise if he gets the opportunity.
Akrum Wadley, Iowa - Buffalo Bills: The Bills already have LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory, but Wadley would be a different style player than either of those guys. The Bills may be playing catch-up in the second half of games quite a bit this season, and Wadley would be a better option to spell Shady McCoy in those situations due to his receiving ability. He would also be a good complementary back to Ivory if anything happened to McCoy. Shady will be turning 30 this upcoming season and has just 2 years left on his current deal, so there is more upside for Wadley's role to grow once McCoy is gone.
Chase Edmonds, Fordham - New England Patriots: Edmonds might be able to step in and serve as the Dion Lewis replacement pretty early on in his career. I don't think he'd play as big a role this year as Lewis did last season, but he excels in some of the same areas. Edmonds isn't quite as elusive as Lewis, but he's still a shifty undersized back who can be a dangerous receiver out of the backfield. No team does a better job finding bargain RBs than the Patriots, and Edmonds would fit that mold as a day 3 draft pick. I'd expect Rex Burkhead to be the most productive Patriot running back this season, but Edmonds could certainly carve out a useful role that could help fantasy teams.
Chris Warren, Texas - Houston Texans: It's been rumored that Donta' Foreman won't be healthy to start the year and may have to open the season on the PUP list. If that's the case, Warren could be a valuable complement to Lamar Miller during the early part of the season. Warren is a very different player than his dad was (former Seahawks' back of the same name). He runs with effortless power and will bulldoze defenders in the open field. He converted to tight end late last season, but that was more because of his prowess as a blocker than receiving skill. I think his best position in the NFL will be running back. There are questions about his vision and acceleration, but his 20-yard shuttle and 3-cone drills at the combine were impressive even if he were 20-30 pounds lighter. If Warren lands with Houston and impresses while Foreman is out, it might be hard for the coaching staff to make him step aside once Foreman returns.
That's all I've got on the running back class until after the draft. If any of the players above do land on the team I've matched them with, that will likely be a good thing for both the player and the team. I did try to at least impart a little bit of knowledge about what type of back each player is. If you disagree with anything written above, don't hesitate to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I'm always up for a spirited debate. In the meantime, keep an eye out for my WR and TE landing spot articles that should be posted Thursday afternoon. Enjoy the draft!