Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at fantasy championship week. If you’ve survived this far, congratulations! That’s an accomplishment in and of itself, but I’m sure you’re not satisfied with second place. For me, the key to championship lineups is to not get too cute. If you roll the dice on a sleeper this week and it blows up in your face in a close loss, are you going to be able to live with that for the whole offseason? If not, you probably shouldn’t roll those dice. That’s not to say that a sleeper can’t help you win a championship. Last year in week 16 it was guys like Daniel Jones, Tajae Sharpe, Steven Sims, DeAndre Washington and Kaden Smith who put up big scores (mostly from people’s benches). There certainly will be some similar performances this year…but the chances of picking them ahead of time is slim to none. Play the reliable starters over the dart throw guys unless you’re comfortable with the consequences. With that in mind, most of this week’s sleepers are guys I wouldn’t consider outside of DFS and the deepest of leagues. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookies for the all-important week 16…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
Rookies to Start:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Herbert has gotten himself back on track in the last couple weeks after a rough day against the Patriots, and this week he catches a Denver defense that is without most of the top of its CB depth chart. The Broncos have coughed up 280+ passing yards and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in each of the two games they’ve played with their corners sidelined, and I’d expect Herbert to extend that to three in a row. Herbert will be without Hunter Henry in this game, and possibly Keenan Allen who is a game-time decision. If Allen misses this one, I’d downgrade Herbert at least a little bit, but they still have enough other weapons that he should still be a really safe low-end QB1 this week against the Broncos’ depleted secondary.
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Hurts has exploded onto the scene in the last two weeks and made the Eagles look like a competent offense. While the fantasy production from his first start came mostly from his legs, he managed to add the passing element to that in game number 2. Hurts threw for 338 yards & 3 touchdowns, and ran for 63 yards and a score as well, showcasing his tantalizing ceiling. That ceiling should be in play again this week against the Cowboys. The passing yardage against Dallas has been limited due to teams being in positive game script. Only 3 teams in their last 11 games have thrown for 225+ yards against them, but 8 of 11 threw for multiple touchdowns. Dallas has also been shredded on the ground by the two true running QBs they’ve faced this season. They allowed 74 rushing yards to Kyler Murray and 94 to Lamar Jackson. Hurts should be in line for another day of strong rushing production and efficient passing, but know that there is always some risk when we only have a 2-game sample size to go off of. I’ve seen a lot of people debating between Herbert and Hurts this week for their championship. Herbert has the safer floor, but Hurts has the higher ceiling. Since both play in the late window on Sunday, I would suggest waiting until closer to kickoff to make that call. By then you should know if you need to swing for the fences with Hurts, or take the safer points with Herbert.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 16: @Pit.): Taylor has been on an absolute tear over the past 3 weeks with 4 total touchdowns and an average of just over 130 scrimmage yards per game, but he gets a rough matchup for championship week. The Steelers have allowed the 2nd-fewest running back points per game, but they’ve had a couple of their more dicey performances in the last few weeks, giving up 12.8 points to JD McKissic in week 13 and 22.2 to Gio Bernard last week. Taylor seems to have found his groove in recent weeks, and I would count on his more consistent usage and improved recent play to push him to a solid fantasy day once again even in this tough matchup. I would view him as more of an RB2 than RB1 this week, but he should be in your lineup unless you have some studs ahead of him.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Dobbins found the end zone for the 4th straight week last Sunday, and he should be in a great position to do it again during championship week. The Ravens have phased Mark Ingram completely out of the run game, and Dobbins has stepped in as the clear lead guy in the committee. He’s now carried the ball more than 10 times in 6 of his last 7 games, and this week faces a Giants’ defense that has allowed the 9th-most RB points per game. New York has given up at least 11 fantasy points to an opposing running back in all but two games this season. Dobbins should be a safe bet to finish in the top-20 backs this week.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 16: @NO): Jefferson gets what looks like a tough matchup on paper against the Saints, but it’s one he should be able to thrive against. The Saints rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 10th-fewest WR points per game, but they play man-to-man defense more often than most defenses and Jefferson has been exceptional against man-to-man. He’s averaging nearly 5 yards per route run against man-to-man defense, and no other player in the league averages even 4 yards. Add in that Jefferson has seen at least 8 targets in 5 of his last 6 games (average of 9.8 per game in that span), and he should be a safe WR1 or 2 this week in most formats despite a tougher matchup.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Don’t overthink it with Aiyuk. He’s gotten into the end zone in 5 of his last 7 games, and had at least 5 catches and 73 yards in each of the last 6. He should be a sure bet for 10+ targets again, even with the return of George Kittle and the switch to CJ Beathard at QB. Aiyuk and Beathard haven’t had the best connection thus far, with Aiyuk catching just 3 of 8 targets from CJ for 49 yards on the season, but with a full week of practice together I expect they’ll have things more ironed out this week. Arizona isn’t a defense to avoid, allowing the 14th-most WR points per game, so as long as the targets are there Aiyuk should be a safe WR2 for the finals.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Tua managed to post a strong fantasy game last week despite the absence of most of his weapons thanks to two rushing touchdowns. He may get some of those weapons back this week (Mike Gesicki & DeVante Parker are practicing in a limited capacity), but we know that the backfield is getting healthier and the Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA. Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida returned last week, running for over 200 yards against New England, and Myles Gaskin was activated from the COVID list this week. The Dolphins would be wise to ride their run game as far as it will take them this week. The pass defense is bad for the Raiders also, but I would expect limited passing volume. Tua should be a mid-QB2 this week unless they fall behind and he’s forced to throw a bunch.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Robinson has been as consistent a fantasy producer as there has been this season, but this week could be different. Many teams that are still alive and kicking owe their success to Robinson, but he’s battling an ankle injury that could keep him out this weekend against the Bears. Robinson typically is safe for double-digit points, but even if he plays this week I’d be surprised if the Jaguars give him his typical workload in a game that really doesn’t mean all that much for them. The Bears rank 5th in run defense DVOA, but have been effectively run on in recent weeks. Robinson would be a reasonable floor flex play if he does give it a go, but he won’t be nearly as safe a play as he usually is. Obviously keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Robinson, and have other options ready in case he doesn’t play.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Week 16 should be an interesting one for the Detroit Lions. Due to COVID exposure they’re going to be without their interim head coach, all of their coordinators, and a few position coaches as well. It remains to be seen what kind of impact that’s going to have on their game plan for this week, but if they know what they’re doing they’ll get the ball into Swift’s hands early and often. The Bucs have been one of the toughest matchups for running backs, allowing the 3rd-fewest points per game and ranking 1st in run defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the most running back receptions in the league and the 10th-most running back receiving yards. It’s unlikely that Swift will put up a crooked rushing total in this tough matchup, but receiving work can get him to a productive day in PPR and half PPR formats. Swift should be a solid flex play in the fantasy finals.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. Car.): Keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Gibson for this week. There is still no guarantee that he will play this week, but if he does suit up he should be in line for an RB2 day. The Panthers rank 22nd in run defense DVOA and allow the 8th-most running back points per game. Before going down with injury, Gibson had scored 8 touchdowns in his last 5 healthy games, and Washington should give him a healthy workload again. If it sounds like Gibson will be close to 100%, he should probably be in your lineup unless you have studs ahead of him.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): After being benched for an early fumble in week 13, the Bills haven’t been shy about going back to Moss in the games that followed. The 13 carries Moss handled in each game is just one off of his season-high, and last week he matched his best yardage day with 81 yards on the ground. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, allowed over 208 rushing yards to Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida last weekend, and 171 to Cam Akers the week before. The Bills’ best game plan would be to pound the ball on the ground. There is a solid chance that Moss approaches the yardage total he posted last week again, but you never know if the touchdowns will come with the yards. Josh Allen is as likely as any Buffalo running back to get the goal line carries. Moss is a flex play with some upside this week if he manages to find paydirt.
RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Ahmed came back from injury in a big way last week, shredding the Patriots to the tune of 122 yards and a TD. It could have been an even bigger day if he hadn’t had another TD overturned on replay review. That performance came with Myles Gaskin still sidelined on the COVID list, and Gaskin is set to return this week. That throws a bit of a wrench into Ahmed’s value for this week. The Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA and allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, so there is an opportunity for another big game if his role is similar, but I would expect Gaskin to take a big chunk of that workload, and Matt Breida (12 carries for 86 yards last week) won’t be completely phased out either. I’d expect Ahmed to be in the ballpark of a dozen touches in this one, and that will make him a decent flex play in this plus matchup.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 16: @Hou.): Higgins has had a hard time putting up fantasy production since Joe Burrow went down for the season, but if there was a week to be hopeful for a big day for him, this is the one. The Texans have played without Bradley Roby in 5 games this season, and have allowed 21+ fantasy points to one opposing receiver in each of those games. If any Bengal is going to approach that mark it’s Higgins. Ryan Finley earned another start this week with his performance against the Steelers last week, and he knew to feed the ball to Higgins. Finley threw just 13 passes in that game, but 6 of them were directed at Higgins. I’d expect Cincy to try to keep the passing volume low if they can again, but I also expect Higgins to post his best receiving day since Burrow got hurt. He’s an interesting WR3 this week.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Claypool’s fantasy performance has taken a hit with the Steelers falling apart as a whole over the past 3 weeks, but he did get back to 8 targets Monday night for the first time since week 12. Indianapolis has allowed the 11th-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve also allowed three 100-yard receiving games in the last 3 weeks. Claypool still has some boom-or-bust element to his fantasy outlook, but with Eric Ebron likely to be sidelined again Claypool should be a solid bet for another 8+ targets. He’s in play as a WR3 option if you need someone with some extra upside.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): By this point you pretty much know what to expect for Lamb without Dak Prescott around. Lamb has had 4+ receptions in 6 of his last 7 games, but yardage has been tough to come by. Last week was just the second time in that span that he’s topped 50 yards. The Eagles are a middle of the pack defense against receivers, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position, and they’ve allowed 5 double-digit fantasy days to wideouts in their past 3 games. Lamb should be safe for 7 or 8 points, but counting on much more has proven to be dangerous in the last couple months. He’s a flex option for deeper leagues where a safe floor may be better for your lineup than your other options.
WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Bowden has been just what the doctor ordered for a Dolphins team that has been beyond beat up at the skill positions over the last few weeks. He’s been the one constant in the lineup over the last 3 games, and as a result he’s totaled 17 catches for 174 yards on 20 targets in that span, and tallied 22 rushing yards to boot. That’s not league-winning production, but he’s been valuable for deeper PPR leagues. The Dolphins are getting healthier, but Bowden should remain involved against a defense that has struggled against slot receivers. Jamison Crowder, Keenan Allen and Scotty Miller each reached 19 points against Vegas from the slot since the Raiders’ bye week. Bowden should be good for in the ballpark of 5-60 this week in a good matchup, even if Gesicki and DeVante Parker return.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone has been playing coy about who will start at QB this week against the Bears, and it matters for Shenault. If the starter is Gardner Minshew again, Viska has some upside for the deepest leagues after being targeted 17 times in the last two games with Minshew under center. He was targeted just 7 times in the two weeks prior with Glennon. The Bears allow the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but have given up 7 double-digit fantasy days to opposing receivers in their last 5 games, and they’re missing corners Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine. Steer clear if Glennon starts, but if it’s the mustachioed one under center Shenault is a WR4/flex option in deep leagues this week.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 16: @Jax.): Kmet has taken over as the starting tight end in Chicago, playing every single offensive snap in week 15, but his fantasy production hasn’t been consistent since taking over the starting role. Kmet has totaled just 105 receiving yards in the last 5 games, all games in which he’s played 70% or more of the snaps. He does have a better than average chance to find the end zone this week. Jacksonville allows the 7th-most TE points per game and has let a tight end score a touchdown in 4 of their past 5 games. The tight end pool is pretty thin, so if you’re scrambling for a Hunter Henry replacement you could probably do worse than Kmet. Just know that the floor is pretty low here.
Rookies to Sit:
RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Perine should return this week, but after being off for a few weeks he might not jump right back into a full-time role. Frank Gore and Ty Johnson have played fairly well in his absence. The Jets should still get Perine a significant share of the work this week, but they’re a 9.5-point underdog and the Browns allow the 8th-fewest RB points per game. This isn’t a spot to view the rookie as a sneaky fantasy play.
RB Rodney Smith, CAR (Wk. 16: @Was.): Smith has seen an uptick in his usage in recent weeks, taking some of the passing down work from Mike Davis while we all wait to see if Christian McCaffrey ever comes back. Smith played 35% of the offensive snaps last week. CMC will be out again this week, so I’d expect Smith to be similarly involved against the Football Team, but this isn’t a great week to count on that sort of usage resulting in a productive fantasy day. Washington has allowed the 4th-fewest running back receptions and 3rd-fewest receiving yards. The upside isn’t all that high in this one.
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 16: @Det.): With Ronald Jones out, it was Leonard Fournette who handled the bulk of Tampa’s backfield work, handling nearly 70% of the offensive snaps. Vaughn and LeSean McCoy split the rest of the work. Jones will be out again this week, but I’d expect Fournette to get the bulk of the work again. There may be a bit more garbage time this week. Tampa was already favored by 9.5 points before it was announced that much of Detroit’s coaching staff would be out due to COVID exposure. That potential garbage time upside isn’t worth risking a possible goose egg in your championship lineup. Vaughn has reached 1 full fantasy point in just 2 of the 5 games where he got at least 1 touch.
RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 16: @GB): Evans made a splash in his first extended action of the season last Sunday, putting up 57 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but much of that came with the Titans up multiple scores. This week’s game should be a much tougher one in Green Bay as a 3.5-point underdog. I don’t expect there to be much garbage time for Evans to do work, and would avoid him in any lineups this week.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 16: @Jax.): Mooney has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks, but his volume has been limited with the Bears playing with leads in the last two weeks. He’s averaged 3.5 targets per game in those two contests, and had only seen fewer than 4 targets once in the 10 games prior. This week the Bears are a heavy favorite in Jacksonville against a Jaguars team that has zero reason to win this game. Jacksonville is a bad pass defense, ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 8th-most points per game to wide receivers, but the Bears should have limited passing volume. If you play Mooney anywhere, you’re hoping he gets in the end zone. He hasn’t reached 70 scrimmage yards in any game this year. I think Jimmy Graham or Cole Kmet are more likely to be the recipients of any ancillary passing scores this week.
WRs Jalen Reagor & Quez Watkins, PHI (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Reagor and Watkins both set season-highs for targets last week against the Cardinals, but neither player topped 50 yards and I wouldn’t expect them to repeat their target totals this week. I guarantee the Eagles don’t want Jalen Hurts throwing the ball 44 times if he doesn’t have to, and the Cowboys have allowed more rushing yards than any team in the league. The Cowboys also allow the 5th-most WR points per game, but Reagor should see a few less targets this week and hasn’t posted a double-digit fantasy day all season. Watkins’ 3-40-1 line last week was the first real production he’s posted all year. Reagor may be worth a dart throw in a DFS tournament, but neither player should be trusted for your fantasy championship.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 16: @Pit.): Pittman has weekly upside, but this week he faces off with a Steelers’ defense that allows the 9th-fewest WR points per game, and he’s seen his targets decline in recent weeks. He hasn’t caught for 50+ yards in any of the last 4 games, and has seen just 13 total targets in the last 3. You can’t count on a big uptick this week in your league finals.
WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 16: @LAC): Jeudy and Hamler are both capable of solid days here, but we’ve seen enough overall struggling from Drew Lock and the Broncos’ passing game in recent weeks to steer clear of both this week in your lineups. Jeudy has caught just 4 of his 13 targets since Lock’s return from the COVID list 3 weeks ago, and Hamler hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any of those 3 games either. The Chargers allow the 11th-fewest WR points per game. If there is a blowup game from one of these two, let it happen from your bench.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): With John Brown set to return this week, Davis will return to being a part time player that shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups. He’s only topped 50 yards in a game where Brown was healthy once all year. Even if Brown sits, Davis would be a dicey option in a matchup where the Bills would be wise to run more than throw. The Patriots will be without Stephon Gilmore, but they won’t lack for cornerback talent, and Davis has been held to fewer than 20 yards receiving in each of the last two weeks. He’s been able to find the end zone in 3 of his last 4 games, but you’d be praying for another TD if you play him anywhere this week.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Ruggs is practicing this week and may be activated from the COVID list ahead of this game, but he’ll be impossible to trust in the fantasy finals. Ruggs did have two of his 3 best receiving yardage games of the season in the 3 weeks before being placed on the list, so he was trending in the right direction, but he’s topped 60 yards just twice all year and scored just 2 TDs on the year. Leave him sidelined against the defense that ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 16: @NYJ): DPJ has now topped 50 receiving yards in each of the 4 games where he’s played 50% or more of the offensive snaps, and this week the Browns face off with a Jets’ defense that is solid against the run but is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Jets are 29th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 7th-most WR points per game. Peoples-Jones still hasn’t caught more than 3 passes in any game this season, so counting on him in the fantasy finals is a risky proposition. He has nice upside for DFS tournaments though and a reasonable price tag of just $3,700 on DraftKings.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Mims was quiet in week 15 as the Jets very unexpectedly played from ahead and were able to lean on the run game, and I wouldn’t expect that to be the case this week. The Browns have been in a groove on offense of late, and the Jets should go back to their usual hapless ways. That means they’ll be throwing a lot. The Browns have been a very vulnerable pass defense, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 10th-most WR points per game. They got back their top corner Denzel Ward from injury last week, and he should be shadowing Breshad Perriman in this game. That could open things up for Mims to have a nice day. There is still a low floor here. Sam Darnold doesn’t take a lot of deep shots and he typically leans on Jamison Crowder as his first option, but Mims’ downfield skill gives him more upside if he does see a few longer targets come his way. He costs just $3,600 on DraftKings and 70+ yards and a score isn’t a far-fetched stat line for the rookie.
WRs Marquez Callaway & Juwan Johnson, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Min.): The Saints will have to throw to someone other than Alvin Kamara and Emmanuel Sanders this Friday, and with Michael Thomas on IR and Tre’Quan Smith ruled out for week 16, Callaway and Johnson are the next men up. Callaway had a couple notable weeks earlier this season when Thomas was out, including an 8-75 line on 10 targets against the Panthers in week 7. He’s been on IR himself the past few weeks, but is set to return Friday. Johnson was the guy who served as the WR2 last week when Smith left with injury. He played 76% of the offensive snaps, but caught zero of his 4 targets. The Vikings do allow the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so there is upside to any receiver who sees targets in this one. After Sanders, I think Callaway is the most likely to have a useful fantasy game, and he costs just $200 on DraftKings for the Showdown slate for the game. Johnson is a little pricier at $2,200. I wouldn’t consider either for your finals though.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 16: @NYJ): Bryant doesn’t have huge upside this week, but he gets a great matchup. Bryant hasn’t seen more than 2 targets in any game that Austin Hooper was active for this season, but the Jets have given up 8 touchdowns to opposing tight ends in their last 6 games, and plenty of yards to go along with them. Austin Hooper is the better play, but Bryant is worth a dart throw as a cheap option if you play the showdown format for this game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you bring home the league crown. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Christmas and on Saturday and Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player (that’s right, there are 3 more Saturday games this week). If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I will be back next week for those of you with week 17 title games or who will still be playing DFS. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! What a wild ride the 2020 season has been. The calendar has turned to 2021, and most fantasy leagues this season are now complete, but there is another week of NFL regular season football to go. While most of us know better than to play in leagues with a week 17 championship game, there are those leagues that exist, so while this week’s Rookie Report will be a little more slanted toward DFS options, I wanted to provide some insight about the rookies for those still playing for a title. Week 17 is all about motivation. What teams still have something to play for? Which teams will be phoning it in for the week? Knowing the answers to those questions will help you identify players who could have big final weeks and those who will disappoint. With that in mind, let’s dive into week 17…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
Rookies to Start:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 17: @KC, DrafKings main slate price: $7,100): Typically the Chiefs wouldn’t be a great matchup for a QB, but this is a game that Kansas City will just be trying to survive healthy. They’ve already clinched a playoff bye. Look for the Chargers to let Justin Herbert air it out a bit in his final regular-season game as a rookie with the Chiefs sitting the majority of their starters. Herbert has thrown for over 250 yards in all but 3 starts this season, and I fully expect him to keep that number at 3 this week, even with Keenan Allen sidelined again. Herbert should be a safe top-10 QB again this week.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 17: vs. Jax., DK main slate price: $7,400): The Colts need to win this game AND have at least one other 10-5 AFC team lose in order to make the playoffs, so look for them to ride their best players to ensure they hold up their end. Over the last month, that means Taylor. JT has averaged 117 scrimmage yards and a touchdown and a half per game over the past 4 weeks, and this week he faces a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 3rd-most RB rushing yards. The Jaguars have allowed at least 1 back to reach 89 yards on the ground in 5 of their past 6 games, and one over 80 scrimmage yards in all 6. Taylor should have his way in this one for as long as the game is competitive. Triple-digit yards and multiple TDs is the ceiling for Taylor in this one, but he should be a safe bet for 15+ fantasy points in just about all formats this week.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin., DK main slate price: $6,700): The Ravens come into this week with both Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards questionable to suit up. If both sit, Dobbins may get a crack at being a workhorse back against a defense that ranks 20th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Justice Hill would likely get some change of pace work, but it would be Dobbins’ show until the game got out of hand. A more likely scenario is that Ingram is able to play (he logged a full practice on Friday), but even in that scenario, I’d expect Dobbins to make a push for a top-10 week. He’s averaged 67 rushing yards per game during his current 5-game touchdown streak, and he should have no trouble reaching 70+ and a score again in this one. He should be very safe in DFS cash games, even if he lacks the ceiling you typically look for in tournaments. If Edwards and Ingram both sit, that ceiling is there.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 17: @Phi., DK SNF showdown price: $9,000): Gibson returned from his turf toe injury last week and looked sharp, tallying 61 rushing yards on just 10 carries. This week he faces an Eagles team that will be without several defensive starters, including Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett, and Duke Riley, who all start in the front 7. With that same trio sidelined last week (Cox played 7 snaps while the other 2 were out), Zeke Elliott looked like his old self and ran for 105 yards. It was just Elliott’s second 100-yard day of the year. Washington can clinch a division title with a win in this game, so they should be going full tilt while the Eagles just try to get through the game. Gibson is likely in line for a big game here and should be a staple in any showdown lineups for Sunday night, and would be a good choice for captain.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 17: @Det, DK main slate price: $7,600): Jefferson should be able to put on one final show for the season on Sunday. The Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook, so they may throw a little more than usual, and the Lions have looked like they’ve thrown in the towel on the season in recent weeks. Detroit ranks dead last in pass-defense, DVOA, and has allowed the most WR points per game. In the past 3 weeks, the Lions have allowed at least one 100-yard wide receiver each week and given up 8 receiving TDs to opposing wideouts in that span. Jefferson and teammate Adam Thielen should both be great plays for DFS in week 17.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF showdown price: $11,400): Hurts has taken the starting job in Philly and run with it in the last few weeks. Turnovers hurt him in a bad loss to the Cowboys a week ago, but in his 3 starts he’s finished as the QB10, QB1, and QB16. This week he faces a Washington defense that has been one of the stingiest against the pass in the league and needs this win to clinch the division title. In their last 13 games, Washington has allowed just 4 QBs to throw for more than 220 yards, so Hurts will be hard-pressed to put up a 3rd-straight 300-yard passing game, but he should still have a stable rushing floor. The rookie has run for 60+ yards in all 3 of his starts, and Washington has allowed 4 different QBs to run for 50+ this season. With Miles Sanders sidelined, even more of the rushing load should fall on Hurts. He’s a bit pricey for the showdown slate Sunday night but should be treated as a low-end QB1 for any teams that have championships this week.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 17: vs. Min., DK main slate price: $6,300): The Lions appeared to have thrown in the towel on the 2020 season in recent weeks, but if that were truly the case Matt Stafford wouldn’t be playing through injury and starting Sunday. This game still has the potential to get out of hand with how bad the Detroit defense has been, but on paper, it should be a great matchup for Swift. Minnesota ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and allows the 6th-most RB points per game. Swift appears to have his injury issues behind him after he played about two-thirds of the offensive snaps in each of the past two weeks and saw a total of 33 touches in those games. I’d expect similar usage in this one, and against this defense, that means a top-10 RB week could be in the offing. There is risk in betting on a Detroit player since it remains to be seen how motivated the Lions will be to win this game, but if you have him in a championship game he should probably be in your lineup.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. Ari., DK main slate price: $6,100): Akers was held out of practice for much of the week with a sprained ankle and is questionable for Sunday’s tilt with the Cardinals, but I’d expect him to be heavily involved if he’s able to play. The Rams will be without Jared Goff and will likely lean on the run more than usual, and Akers has shown himself in recent weeks to be the best option in this backfield. The Cardinals allow the 11th-most RB points per game, and just last week were shredded by Jeff Wilson, Jr. to the tune of 183 rushing yards. Akers himself tallied 94 scrimmage yards and a score in the first meeting with Arizona. Something in that same ballpark would be a successful day for Akers in this one, but if he’s close to 100% he may be able to do even more. Keep a close eye on the injury updates here.
RB Rodney Smith, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. NO, DK main slate price: $4,000): Smith has been seeing extended playing time in recent weeks, averaging 36 scrimmage yards on 6 touches per game in the last 3 weeks, and Mike Davis is unlikely to play this week. The matchup isn’t a good one, with New Orleans allowing the fewest RB points per game, but in the last 3 weeks, they’ve let 4 different backs top 60 rushing yards and given up 5 running back scores in that span. Smith isn’t in the same class as the backs who have been running well against the Saints (CEH, Dalvin, Lev Bell, and Miles Sanders), but he’ll have plenty of opportunity with the Panthers’ backfield shorthanded. Smith should see 15+ touches, and his role as the default workhorse back isn’t built into his DFS price tag. He should return more than his cost in cash games and is a reasonable option for limited slate tournaments. He is also probably on the waiver wire if you have a championship game and need to replace a sidelined starter like Miles Sanders or Dalvin Cook. With the Saints missing all of their running backs, the Panthers may hang around in this game for a while and keep the ball going to Smith.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. Mia., DK main slate price: $4,600): Moss is an interesting case for this week. The Bills don’t have a reason to aggressively try to win this game. I’d expect Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs to be done after the first series or two of the day, and several other key players may play limited snaps as well. While that could mean limited snaps for Moss and Devin Singletary, I’m not sure how comfortable the Bills will be giving all of the backfield work to 32-year-old Taiwan Jones, and with Allen off the field the quarterback won’t be vulturing goal-line carries from Moss. The Dolphins rank just 23rd in run defense DVOA, so there is some upside for Moss if he does play close to his normal share of the snaps, but the risk of a shortened day for him is real.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. LV, DK main slate price: $4,200): Jeudy has caught a lot of flack from the fantasy world and Broncos’ fans after dropping 6 passes in last week’s loss to the Chargers. The thing that I take away from that game is that he was targeted 15 times. Targets are earned, and Jeudy had to be getting open a lot to see that many passes in his direction. We’ve consistently seen the Steelers go back to Diontae Johnson despite drops because he’s consistently able to get separation. This week Jeudy faces a Raiders defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA. The corner he should match up with most often is rookie Damon Arnette, who has allowed an 80% completion percentage and nearly 10 yards per target into his coverage. I expect the Raiders offense to do enough to keep Denver throwing, and for Jeudy to be eager to make last week a distant memory. The rookie has some serious upside in this matchup that I expect him to make good on. It would take some balls to play him after his dropsies last week, but I think those that do so will be rewarded.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 17: @NYG, DK main slate price: $5,200): Dallas is one of the teams that has every reason to play to win in week 17. A victory by the Cowboys and a loss by Washington on Sunday night would give Dallas the division title, so expect them to pull out all the stops. The Dallas offense has been coming together in recent weeks. Their two best yardage games without Dak Prescott at QB were in the last 2 weeks, and Lamb has been more consistent in recent weeks as well. He’s averaged 12.4 PPR points per game in the last 4 weeks, and this week gets a favorable individual matchup against slot corner Darnay Holmes. Amari Cooper will be shadowed by James Bradberry, and that should free up some extra targets for Lamb and Michael Gallup. Lamb went for 8 catches and 124 yards in the first meeting with the G-Men, albeit with Dak at QB. This is a week where Lamb has a solid chance to finish above that 4-40 floor that we’ve seen from him since Prescott went down.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 17: @Ind., DK main slate price: $4,200): The Jaguars have already ruled out DJ Chark, James Robinson, and Collin Johnson for this week, so Shenault should be heavily featured in a matchup where the team should be playing from behind and throwing a lot. Shenault already leads the team in targets from Mike Glennon with 21 and should be a good bet for 6+ targets again this week. The Colts have been a tougher pass defense, ranking 7th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 14th-most WR points per game and given up 5 receiver scores in the past 3 weeks. Shenault is the best bet of the Jaguar receivers to find the end zone this week.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. Mia., DK main slate price: $3,600): The Bills have already clinched the 2nd or 3rd seed in the AFC, and it seems likely that they’ll rest their starters for the majority of this game. They haven’t officially announced it, but after clinching the division in week 16 last season the Bills sat most of their starters and played Josh Allen for just 7 snaps in week 17. Davis could serve as the de facto WR1 for much of this game. Even with Matt Barkley at QB for most of the game, it shouldn’t be hard for Davis to outproduce his price tag if the other receivers sit as expected. The Dolphins rank a solid 6th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 16th-most WR points per game and given up over 100 receiving yards to Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers in the past 2 weeks. I’d be at least a little surprised if Davis doesn’t lead the Bills in receiving yards this week.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 17: vs. Bal., DK main slate price: $5,000): Higgins finally posted a big day without Joe Burrow at QB last week, but it came against the pathetic Texans’ secondary. This week’s matchup is much tougher against Baltimore, and Higgins is questionable with a hamstring issue, so keep a close eye on the injury report if you’re considering him. If he does play, the volume should be there for him again. Higgins has averaged 7 targets per game since Burrow went down with an injury. The most likely outcome for Higgins this week would be another floor game in the ballpark of 50 yards, but the volume gives him some upside. Baltimore has allowed the 9th-fewest WR points per game, but have given up 65+ receiving yards to 4 different receivers in the last 4 weeks.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 17: @Cle., DK main slate price: $5,700): Claypool is a bit of a roll of the dice this week with Mason Rudolph under center and the playing time for the rest of the Steelers’ starters still up in the air. Diontae Johnson is the receiver most likely to sit in this one, so Claypool should still be involved. Cleveland has been vulnerable to opposing receivers, allowing the 10th-most WR points per game, but it remains to be seen if Rudolph will be able to help these receivers take advantage. The Steelers are a 9-point underdog, so they should be throwing. Claypool’s upside is going to come from catching a long ball or getting in the end zone, and for what it’s worth, Rudolph did complete 11 passes of 30+ yards last season in 10 games. I’d probably look elsewhere for most lineups this week, but if you want to try your hand at the showdown slate, Claypool and James Washington are the two Steelers I think are most likely to have a nice game. Washington was a college teammate of Rudolph and is $4,800 cheaper than Claypool in the showdown format.
Upside DFS Sleepers:
RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 17: @Hou., DK main slate price: $4,000): The Titans need to win this week to secure the AFC South title, but this one has the chance to get out of hand. The Texans’ defense made the Bengals look unstoppable last weekend to the tune of 540 offensive yards. Derrick Henry should run through this defense like a hot knife through butter, and that could lead to Evans getting some garbage time run in the 2nd half. The last time the Titans had garbage time Evans posted 57 scrimmage yards and a TD against the Lions. The Texans allow the most running back points per game, so any extended playing time for Evans could have a nice upside.
WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. Ari., DK main slate price: $3,000): The Rams lost Cooper Kupp to the COVID list this week, and Jefferson should be the next man up in the slot for them. They need to win this week against Arizona to make sure they make the playoffs. It seems logical that the Rams would use more 2-tight end sets with Tyler Higbee & Gerald Everett, but the game script could force them into more WR-heavy formations. The Rams will be without starting QB Jared Goff, so keeping pace with the Cardinals may be a bit tougher in this one. Jefferson likely gets a lot of practice work with Wolford on the 2nd team and seems a good bet to see at least a handful of targets in this one. Jefferson costs the minimum on DraftKings and faces a middling defense against WRs.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 17: vs. Pit., DK main slate price: $3,500): Before last week’s trip to the COVID list, DPJ had been on quite a roll with 221 receiving yards in the 3 games prior. He’s topped 50 yards in all 4 games where he’s played at least 50% of the offensive snaps, and it looks like the Steelers will be resting several of their key players in this game. There is a great opportunity here for Peoples-Jones to get loose for another big play or 2. There is a low floor here since DPJ hasn’t had more than 5 targets or 3 catches in a game, so he’s a better option in a DFS tournament than in cash games or in any championship matchups.
WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 17: @Car., DK main slate price: $3,200): The shorthanded Saints will be without receivers Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith again this week, but will also be without most of their running backs. They aren’t going to win this game simply by pounding the rock with Ty Montgomery, so there should be a bit more passing volume than we saw last week when they leaned on Alvin Kamara for a half-dozen touchdowns. Juwan Johnson had seen a spike in recent playing time with the injuries ahead of him, but while playing 90 offensive snaps over the past 4 weeks he’s managed just 2 catches for 30 yards on 6 targets. Callaway returned from IR last week and immediately played about twice as many snaps as Johnson (42 to 23) and totaled 3-26 on 4 targets. Callaway is the guy who is going to benefit from the increased passing volume, and he costs $200 less than Johnson on the main slate this week. There isn’t a huge ceiling for Callaway, but if the Saints substitute the short passing game for the run game, there could be 6+ targets there for Marquez this week.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin., DK main slate price: $3,000): Willie Snead is questionable for the Ravens in what will be a must-win game in Cincy, and Duvernay is the best suited of the other receivers to man the slot. If Snead sits, Duvernay should get some chances to showcase his track-star speed against a defense that has allowed the 3rd-most 20+ yard completions on the year. There is some risk here since Dez Bryant and Miles Boykin have played ahead of Duvernay in recent weeks, so I would prefer Devin as more of a dart throw in the showdown slate for this game, where his price tag is just $1,000, rather than a bigger tournament.
WR Quez Watkins, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF showdown price: $1,600): Watkins has shown a penchant for coming up with splash plays in his limited snaps with Jalen Hurts at QB. He took a screen pass for a 32-yard score against the Cardinals and hauled in a 43-yard grab a week ago in Dallas. Watkins is questionable for this week, but several pass catchers have already been ruled out for week 17 – Dallas Goedert, DeSean Jackson and Richard Rodgers. If Watkins plays, there could be some increased opportunity for him, and his price tag is more than reasonable for the showdown slate Sunday night. It would only take one splash TD play to make him worth that cost.
Rookies to Sit (Or avoid in DFS):
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $5,100): Tua has thrown for fewer than 100 yards and been pulled in each of his last two games away from Miami. He likely won’t get pulled again this week as coach Brian Flores won’t have Ryan Fitzpatrick as a fallback option in this game. The bearded backup was placed on the COVID list this week. I’d still expect the Dolphins to lean on the run game unless the game script forces their hand. They’ll need to win this one to ensure they make the playoffs, and Buffalo has been locked in as a pass defense, allowing fewer than 360 total passing yards in the last 3 weeks. I’d steer clear of Tua in this one.
RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $4,400): With the return of Myles Gaskin last week, Ahmed handled just 6 carries and saw 1 target against the Raiders. With a playoff berth on the line this week, it should be the Gaskin show again unless the game gets out of hand. If Buffalo rests their starters and Miami pulls away, it could be a combination of Ahmed and Breida carrying the ball down the stretch. I don’t see a huge ceiling for Ahmed unless Gaskin gets hurt early.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 17: @Chi., DK main slate price: $4,900): Don’t fall in love with the performance you saw last week. Green Bay gets Jamaal Williams back this week, which will send Dillon back to the bench, and they face a much less generous run defense. The Bears rank 4th in run defense DVOA.
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Atl., DK main slate price: $4,400): A Bucs win this week ensures that they’ll face the NFC East’s sub-.500 champ in their first playoff game, so they’ll treat this like a game they want to win. Last week was the first time all year that Vaughn played more than 25% of the offensive snaps, and it came in a lopsided blowout with Ronald Jones out. Jones returns this week, so even a blowout might not result in a ton of snaps for Vaughn in week 17.
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 17: @Cle., DK main slate price: $4,000): The Steelers will be resting starters since they’re locked into the 2nd or 3rd seed in the AFC, so James Conner may not play this week. In the last 3 games that Conner sat this season, it was Benny Snell who carried the load. McFarland played a total of just 32 offensive snaps in those games, seeing 8 carries and 3 targets. I’d expect more of the same here if Conner sits.
RB Tony Jones, Jr., NO (Wk. 17: @Car., DK showdown price: $200): Jones isn’t even available for the main slate on DraftKings, but he is expected to be called up from the practice squad Sunday with all of the New Orleans running backs sidelined on the COVID list. Don’t fall for his $200 price tag if you’re playing the showdown slate for this game. I’d expect the short-yardage back to be Taysom Hill, and for Ty Montgomery to do his best to fill in for Alvin Kamara. The Saints are still in play for the NFC’s playoff bye, so they won’t just phone this game in. I’d be surprised if Jones gets more than a few carries in this one.
RB Jason Huntley, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF Showdown price: $200): I know, $200 is basically free on the showdown slate, and Huntley should see at least some opportunity with Miles Sanders sidelined, but Huntley hasn’t been active in weeks. He still has Boston Scott, Corey Clement, and Jordan Howard ahead of him on the depth chart. It would be a positive week for Huntley if he just gets on the field for a few touches.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF Showdown price: $6,200): Reagor has essentially served as the Eagles’ WR1 in terms of targets, but Quez Watkins’ 57 yards last week is more than Reagor has put up in any game this season. Reagor costs $4,600 more than Watkins on the showdown slate. Washington allows the 4th-fewest WR points per game. Don’t pay up for Reagor expecting a big game this week, but I do think he has the talent to take a step forward next season.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. GB, DK main slate price: $4,100): Mooney has found the end zone in two of the last 3 games, but if you roll him out there in a championship game or DFS lineups this week you’re counting on him finding the end zone again. Green Bay has allowed just 1 WR touchdown in their last 4 games combined. Volume has been there for Mooney in several games this year (5 games with 7+ targets), but he’s averaged just 4 catches for 41 yards in those games. He’s topped 50 scrimmage yards just twice all season.
WR Michael Pittman, Jr., IND (Wk. 17: vs. Jax., DK main slate price: $4,100): Pittman gets a plus matchup against a miserable Jaguars defense this week, but he’s fallen behind Zach Pascal and now sits at 3rd in the target pecking order for the Colts. Indy is favored by 14 points this week, so they likely won’t throw much in the second half. That limited volume makes Pittman a bad bet as a dart throw.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 17: @Den., DK main slate price: $3,600): This may look like a good spot for Ruggs to make a couple of splash plays in a matchup against a team that is missing all of its top-3 cornerbacks, but it’s not a wager I’d make. The Broncos have been this shorthanded at CB for 3 games now, and have allowed just 2 completions for 30+ yards in those games, and the corner that Ruggs will match up with most (De’Vante Bausby) runs a 4.35-second 40-yard dash. Ruggs isn’t going to beat you with volume -he has no more than 3 receptions in any game this year – and it doesn’t look like a great bet that he gets a big play this week.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 17: @NE, DK main slate price: $3,000): Mims has played 4 games this year with Sam Darnold at QB and Jamison Crowder on the field. In those games, he’s totaled 17 targets, 9 catches, and 125 yards. The Pats allow the 11th-fewest WR points per game. This doesn’t strike me as a good opportunity to bet on a big game from the rookie.
WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $3,500): The Dolphins should be getting healthier this week, as DeVante Parker could return from a hamstring injury, and Bowden has averaged fewer than 50 scrimmage yards per game in the last 4 weeks despite seeing significant usage in that span (nearly 6 targets and 1 rush attempt per game).
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 17: vs. Min., DK main slate price: $3,000): The Lions still will be missing Kenny Golladay yet again this weekend, but that hasn’t resulted in Cephus having an expanded role this year. Quintez hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in any game this year that wasn’t against the Bears. There’s also the risk that Detroit pulls Matt Stafford if he takes a few hits in this one. There is an upside for next season with Golladay and Marvin Jones, Jr. each hitting free agency this offseason, but there isn’t much to get excited about here for week 17.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Atl., DK main slate price: $3,200): The Bucs need to win this game to make sure they don’t face off with the Saints, Packers or Seahawks next weekend, and that means very limited snaps for Johnson, as usual, barring a blowout win.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. GB, DK main slate price: $3,000): Kmet has been a popular name in recent weeks as he’s been playing the vast majority of the Bears’ offensive snaps and been targeted 6+ times in 3 of the last 4 games. He’s also been handily out-produced by teammate Jimmy Graham in that span and faces a defense this week that allows the 4th-fewest TE points per game. He’s also still questionable to even play in this one. In his best receiving game of the year so far Kmet finished with just 45 yards. I don’t have confidence that he bests that in week 17.
That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully, you’ve gotten some use out of this column throughout the year in figuring out what to do with the rookies on your fantasy teams. Make sure to keep an eye out for any updates throughout the week and up to kickoff. There could be some surprise benchings/inactive players for teams with nothing to play for this week. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I’ll be back next season to help you navigate your way through a new crop of rookies. I look forward to filling you all in on Travis Etienne, Kyle Pitts, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Justin Fields each week. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re about to get into the full swing of the preseason, which means your fantasy draft is probably fast approaching. Today I continue my preseason look at the rookie class. If you missed my QB fact sheet or running back fact sheet, you can find the QBs here, and the RBs here, but today I’m looking at the tight ends. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie tight end class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…
FACT:
The average TE4 in the past 5 seasons has scored 195.6 PPR points. Only 2 rookie tight ends have ever scored more PPR points than that, most recently Keith Jackson in 1988. Kyle Pitts is being drafted as the TE4 in redraft leagues.
What it means:
As you might expect, any rookie tight-end overview might as well just be called the Kyle Pitts article. A lot of these facts are going to focus on Pitts. What this particular stat is telling you is that Pitts will need to post the best rookie TE season of the last 30 years to be worth his ADP. While that’s within his range of outcomes, I’m not sure it’s a bet that I’m willing to make. Maybe if I dig into some of the reasons why he’s so highly regarded I can get a bit more clarity…
FACT:
In all the years that Arthur Smith was on the offensive coaching staff for the Titans (since 2012), they’ve never ranked higher than 19th in the league in pass attempts. In his two years as the offensive coordinator, they ranked 31st and 30th.
What it means:
A big piece of the argument in Kyle Pitts’ favor for 2021 is that he steps in as the number 2 target in one of the highest passing volume offenses in the league, but will they stay a high-volume passing offense? Atlanta has ranked in the top-10 in passing attempts in the league in 10 of the last 12 seasons, and in the top-5 in 6 of the last 9, but Arthur Smith would prefer if the Falcons’ offense is more balanced in 2021 if his coaching history is any indication. The coaches that Smith cut his teeth under in the NFL had run-heavy offenses, and Smith continued that in his two seasons as the offensive coordinator.
The Falcons don’t have Derrick Henry, and they have a Vegas win total of just 7 games, so they aren’t going to rank 30th in pass attempts this season like the Titans did in 2020. They’re still likely to throw substantially less often this season. It’s entirely possible they fall out of the top-10 after ranking 4th in pass attempts last year. Don’t be surprised if they throw the ball fewer times in 17 games this season than they did in 16 games in 2020. If you’re penciling in the Falcons for 625+ pass attempts, and 120+ targets for Pitts, you’re probably setting those marks too high.
FACT:
Since 1980, there have been 7 tight ends selected in the top-10 picks in the NFL draft. Only Junior Miller (156.2 PPR points in 1980) scored 100 or more PPR points as a rookie.
What it means:
Pitts’ lofty draft capital is another brick people use in building the case for him, but in the last 41 years, only one tight end drafted in the top 10 finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end as a rookie. None of those players were drafted quite as highly as Pitts (4th overall), but Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis were both picked 6th, Junior Miller was picked 7th, and TJ Hockenson was picked 8th and was the first non-QB offensive player drafted in 2019. While I agree with most folks that Pitts is nearly a lock to finish as a top-10 tight end in 2021, every single tight end drafted in the last 4 decades with similar draft capital to Pitts has underwhelmed as a rookie.
FACT:
Since 1990, there have been 34 tight ends drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Only 2 of them (Tony Gonzalez and Greg Olsen) have more than 3 seasons with 800 or more receiving yards. There have been 8 non-first-round picks with more than three 800-yard seasons in that span.
What it means:
This stat looks at Pitts’ draft capital through the dynasty league lens. The true elite producers at tight end have often come from unexpected places. Gronk was drafted in the 2nd round. Travis Kelce was a third-round pick. Darren Waller was a 6th-rounder. George Kittle a 5th, Shannon Sharpe a 7th, and Antonio Gates an undrafted free agent. The NFL has had a really hard time identifying the true difference-makers at the position for a long time. Pitts is already going as the 25th overall pick in dynasty start-up leagues. At that price point, you basically need him to have a career like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates or Travis Kelce where he is a perennial top-3 fantasy tight-end to be worth what you’re paying. If his career looks more like Greg Olsen’s or Vernon Davis’, you’re going to regret ponying up for him.
FACT:
According to PlayerProfiler, Noah Fant had a higher college dominator rating, an earlier breakout age, and a higher SPARQ-x score than Kyle Pitts
Vernon Davis was better than Pitts in all those areas except breakout age, but Davis also ran a faster 40-yard dash than Pitts.
What it means:
Before Pitts landed in Atlanta as the 4th overall draft pick, it was his size, athleticism, and college production that had people calling him the greatest tight end prospect of all-time, but there’s a case to be made that a player drafted just two years ago was a better athlete and was more productive in college than Pitts…and Vernon Davis in 2006 is probably the most athletic tight end prospect of all-time.
In fairness to Pitts, his overall combination of draft capital, landing spot, athleticism, and college production hasn’t been duplicated in the league’s history. He truly is among the best tight-end prospects to ever come into the league, if he’s not *the* best. Barring injury he’s a virtual lock to finish as a top-10 tight end this season. Just know that if you draft Pitts at his ADP in any format, you’re betting on him posting a historic rookie season. For me, the gap between Pitts and some of the tight ends that have come before him and failed to stand out as rookies isn’t wide enough for me to make that bet.
FACT:
In the past 5 seasons, the average TE12 has scored 138.5 PPR points.
Since 2000, only 6 rookie tight ends have scored more than that. Four of them were drafted in the first or second round of the NFL Draft.
What it means:
There isn’t a lot of reason to consider any rookie tight ends taken in the 3rd round or later in redraft unless it’s on the waiver wire after they show you something in-season. Since 2000 there have been 182 tight ends drafted in the 3rd round or later that at least caught one pass as a rookie, and another 141 undrafted free agents who did. Only 2 of those players scored 138.5 or more PPR points as a rookie. Don’t waste a draft pick thinking you can pick the one-in-150 guy who has a solid rookie season. This approach doesn’t apply to dynasty though. Plenty of quality tight ends have come from after the first two rounds – Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, George Kittle, Antonio Gates, etc. They just didn’t produce as rookies.
FACT:
Since 2000, there have been 55 tight ends drafted after the 2nd round of the NFL draft that were 24 years old or older as a rookie (according to Pro-Football-Reference). Three of those 55 tight ends caught for more than 350 receiving yards as a rookie. All three of them – George Kittle, Owen Daniels, and Jimmy Graham - went on to post multiple top-10 fantasy seasons. None of the other 52 posted multiple TE1 seasons.
What it means:
We’re talking about Jacob Harris here. Harris is one of the more intriguing day-three tight-end picks in this year’s draft. He’s a converted wide receiver, so he has the receiving skills that fantasy players look for, and he landed in a good situation with a quality QB and a creative coach who has said glowing things about him since the selection…but at 24, Harris is old for a rookie. Like most rookie tight ends, I don’t expect him to be useful in redraft leagues, but he’s worth a stash in dynasty leagues to see how he performs this year. A tight end with first or second-round draft capital, even an older one, is going to get opportunities at some point. As a 3rd-rounder or later though, those older tight ends need to show something in year one or they probably won’t get much of a shot in later seasons. Dennis Pitta and Brandon Myers are the only TEs since 2000 that fit this category to post even one TE1 season after failing to hit 350 yards as a rookie. If Harris gets to 350+ yards as a rookie, you should be looking to buy or hold into year two. If he fails to get there, you should probably be looking to sell at any moment where an offseason narrative causes his value to spike.
FACT:
Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers have drafted 8 tight ends (including Pat Freiermuth this season). Only Matt Spaeth played at least 30% of the offensive snaps as a rookie (He played 40%).
What it means:
Pat Freiermuth probably isn’t going to be on the field as much as you’d like him to be this season. He does have the highest draft capital of any tight end drafted in the Tomlin era, but I’d expect his rookie usage to be similar to Spaeth, who was a third-round pick in 2007. Eric Ebron returns after being targeted 91 times in 2020, and while he can make frustrating blunders at times, he’s also finished as a top-15 fantasy tight end in 5 of the last 6 years. If Ebron stays healthy, he’s going to be the team’s TE1 and Freiermuth won’t be much more than a TD dart throw for most of his rookie season. 2021 is the last season of Ebron’s contract, so the path is clear for the rookie from Penn State to be the lead tight end for the Steelers in 2022. You should be looking to trade for him in-season in dynasty leagues if your league-mate who has him gets frustrated with his lack of rookie production.
That’s all I’ve got for the tight end class. Hopefully, it helps give you some clarity on these guys as you head into your drafts. I’ll be back next week with a look at the wide receivers, but feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if there’s anything written above you want to yell at me about. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now less than one week away from the regular season kickoff, and I’m sure you’re all like me and getting antsy for some real NFL action that counts. Today, I’m continuing my preseason look at the rookie class and turning my focus to the wide receivers. If you missed my previous fact sheets, you can find them here (QB), here (RB) and here (TE), but today we’re looking at the rookie wide receiver class. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie receiver class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for the 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…
FACT:
In half-PPR scoring, there were 3 rookie wide receivers who finished in the top-20 scorers at the position in 2020. In the five years prior to that, there were a total of 3 top-20 WR performances by rookies.
What it means:
We were spoiled last season when it came to rookie receivers. Justin Jefferson set the rookie receiving yardage record, Chase Claypool and CeeDee Lamb posted top-20 seasons, Tee Higgins posted a top-30 season, and Brandon Aiyuk clocked in as the WR33. No other season in the past 6 years had more than one rookie finish in the top-20 or more than 2 finish in the top-30. The 2021 class comes with a lot of expectations, with three top-10 draft picks among 10 receivers drafted in the first two rounds…but the answer to the question of who this year’s Justin Jefferson will be is probably no one. That doesn’t mean you should fade the entire class of receivers, but I’d avoid selecting any of this year’s rookie wide receivers among the top-24 taken in your drafts.
FACT:
Since 2000, there have been 27 wide receivers selected in the top-10 overall NFL picks. Not one of them had a catch rate higher than 58.0% as a rookie.
The lowest league-average completion percentage in any season in that span was 58.2% in 2000.
What it means:
Team’s drafting in the top-10 picks of the NFL draft typically have a bad QB, or at least a young developing QB at the helm, and it can take time for a bad or inexperienced quarterback to get on the same page with an inexperienced receiver. The receivers picked in this range typically fit the same ‘alpha’ WR archetype. Nearly all of them are big, physical wide receivers who are threats down the field rather than possession receivers who thrive on short-yardage throws that are completed at a higher rate. Only 3 of the 27 receivers were shorter than 6’1”. Interestingly enough, two of this year’s three top-10 WR picks - Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith – are shorter than that.
A lower catch rate isn’t a death knell for a receiver, but it’s not great in PPR formats, as they’ll need to put up more yards per catch and/or more touchdowns to make up for the lack of receptions. There are reasons to be excited about each member of the trio, but if you see projections putting any of them above 1,000 receiving yards or finishing as a top-12 WR, take them with a very big grain of salt. I would wait until outside the top-30 WRs to draft any of the three.
FACT:
Elijah Moore’s 10.75 receptions per game in 2020 are the most by any power conference-wide receiver in a season since 1990 (minimum 8 games played).
What it means:
If you’re looking for the rookie receiver who is best positioned to be a valuable fantasy player in year one, look no further than Elijah Moore, especially in PPR leagues. Moore is being drafted 4-5 full rounds after Jaylen Waddle (who is being drafted 3-4 rounds after Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith), but he has as clear a path to 100 targets as any other rookie. With Jamison Crowder on the Covid reserve list, Moore should be in line for a big role in week 1 opposite Corey Davis, and I don’t expect him to look back. Jaylen Waddle will have Devante Parker and Will Fuller in front of him. DeVonta Smith is in an offense that should lean heavily on the run game and will target their two tight ends a bunch. Ja’Marr Chase has struggled to stand out in camp and has two proven receivers in front of him in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Rashod Bateman will open the season on injured reserve with a groin injury. Even if he returns by week 4, it’ll take time to build up to a full workload. Moore could push Corey Davis for the Jets’ team lead in targets this season if he performs well early in the season. He has a ton of upside and can be had with one of your last picks in the draft. I’d much rather draft Moore late than take one of Smith/Waddle/Chase at their current ADPs.
FACT:
Since 2000, 5 wide receivers have tallied 100 or more receptions as a freshman in college. One of them is Rondale Moore. Three of the other 4 have finished an NFL season as a top-12 PPR wide receiver. Two of them have finished a season as the overall WR1.
What it means:
The players to accomplish the feat were Rondale, Michael Crabtree, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, and Richie James. Obviously, James hasn’t done much at the NFL level, but the other 3 are pretty lofty company. Rondale isn’t a guy I would be targeting in redraft formats outside of a late dart throw, but he’s got a ton of upside in dynasty leagues. He’s going to have to fight for playing time in year one with veterans DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Christian Kirk around, but that could give you an opportunity to get him for a bargain later this season if the manager who drafted him gets impatient or frustrated. He’s a perfect fit for the Cardinals’ spread attack and has a legitimate 100-catch upside at the NFL level once he ascends the depth chart. Monitor his performance early in the season, and make an offer for him if he isn’t playing a bunch in the first month or two of the season.
FACT:
Since 1980, there have been 53 NFL wide receivers to catch a pass that weighed less than 170 pounds (per pro-football-reference.com). Only 4 of them have caught for 800 or more yards in a season.
Tutu Atwell weighed in at 149 pounds at his last NFL medical check before the NFL Draft.
What it means:
Atwell’s diminutive size may limit him to being a gadget player or return man in the NFL. The 149-pound number is a little bit for shock value here – Atwell reportedly weighed in around 160 pounds not long after the draft, but even at 160 his historical outlook isn’t great. The last time a player under 170 pounds caught for 800+ yards in a season was James Jett in 1997. As the league evolves into a more pass-heavy game with more spread offenses, smaller players like Atwell should have a better chance to succeed, but Atwell is on the extreme end of that scale. There are other small-ish receivers in this class that were drafted early this year – 7 of the 10 WRs drafted in the first two rounds don’t have the prototypical ‘alpha WR’ size – but the lightest any of the other 6 were clocked was DeVonta Smith at 166 pounds at the same medical combine where Atwell was at 149.
Tutu does have several things working in his favor. Sean McVay’s offenses have consistently been among the best in the league, Matt Stafford is an upgrade at QB with a strong deep ball, and Atwell has wheels and 2nd-round draft capital. He has a fighting chance, but I’d like to see him show something at the NFL level before buying in. I’d be avoiding him entirely in redraft leagues and treating him as a late flyer in dynasty.
FACT:
Since 2000, there have been 37 wide receivers drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft that reached 24 years old prior to or during their rookie season. Only 10 of them reached 500 or more receiving yards, and 11 failed to catch for even 100 yards as a rookie.
What it Means:
D’Wayne Eskridge probably isn’t worth even a late dart throw in redraft leagues. I love Eskridge as a player, and as someone that went to Western Michigan, Eskridge is a guy that I want to root for, but he’s facing long odds to be a useful piece of fantasy teams early in his career. We’ve seen some recent successes from older rookie receivers – Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, and Cooper Kupp all cleared 800 receiving yards in year one – but none of that trio joined a team that had a pair of 125+ target receivers returning. The Seahawks already ranked just 17th in passing attempts last season, and head coach Pete Carroll has expressed a desire to run the ball more in 2021. There just isn’t enough room for Eskridge to carve out a meaningful role in this offense in year one unless there’s an injury to DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett ahead of him.
FACT:
The New York Giants returning players accounted for 72.2% of the team’s passing targets in 2020, including their 3 most-targeted players, who each had at least an 18% target share.
The Giants get Saquon Barkley back from injury this season and added Kenny Golladay and Kyle Rudolph in free agency.
What it means:
Kadarius Toney wasn’t drafted to be a major part of the offense in his rookie year. Using a first-round pick on a player who isn’t going to play a major role in year one certainly doesn’t feel like a wise use of that pick, but it appears to be exactly what the Giants did here. They’ll find ways to get him on the field and get the ball into his hands – he’s a dynamic playmaker after the catch – but he’s not going to give you consistent production for fantasy leagues without some injuries in front of him. He would likely need to get himself ahead of both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton on the depth chart to play a meaningful rookie role, and I don’t think that’s likely. It would be a positive rookie year if he were even able to match Henry Ruggs' output from last season (26 receptions, 452 yards, 2 TD). There’s no need to consider him in anything but the deepest of redraft leagues, and he should be viewed as more of a stash for the future in dynasty.
FACT:
Since 2000, 238 wide receivers that were drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL draft caught a pass as a rookie. Only 4 of them (1.7%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.
In that same span, there were 279 undrafted wide receivers who caught at least one pass in their rookie season. Again, only 4 of them (1.4%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.
What it means:
In redraft leagues, you should avoid drafting rookie receivers who were not drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft. Receivers in this group are such a longshot to produce at a high level that you should cross them off your draft list ahead of time. There have been successes to come from this group, but you should wait until you see something from them and pick them up on the waiver wire rather than draft them. There has been a lot of buzz this offseason for Amon-Ra St. Brown, both because he has a cool name and because the Lions have a dearth of WR talent, and there has been a little bit of noise more recently for Tylan Wallace as the Ravens have been depleted by injuries at the receiver position. Let other teams in your league take the chance on those guys. I’m not a scout, so I’d rather not assume I’m capable of identifying which player from this range is going to be the outlier who does produce as a rookie.
That’s all I’ve got for the receivers. Hopefully, it helps you if you have a draft coming up this weekend. Sorry if it seems like I’m a downer on your favorite rookie wide receivers this season. I do think there is going to be quality that comes from this wide receiver class, but I also think the 2020 class has thrown our expectations for them in year one out of whack.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions about the rookie WR crop or want to yell at me about anything written above, and make sure to come back to check out the weekly Rookie Report articles in-season as well. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.