Webster's defines a trend as: "the general movement over time of a statistically detectable change". Here at drinkfive.com, we generally like trends that show 3 weeks of an uptick or regression of player's usage, effectiveness or general point scoring. Check out the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to hear a more in-depth discussion about all of these players. All fantasy point totals are based on Yahoo standard scoring, unless otherwise indicated.
Aaron Rodgers, Wk 5 @ DAL 9.42, Wk 6 vs DET 19.32, Wk 7 vs OAK 43.76.
This year, Aaron Rodgers has not quite looked like himself. For the first 6 weeks, he only had one game above 20 points. His utterly dominant performance in Week 7 seems to indicate that he’s gotten back on track. Over the past three weeks, he’s gone from his lowest total (mainly due to Aaron Jones’ huge game in Dallas) up to arguably his best game of his career last week against Oakland. The Packers offense did look pretty terrible to start the season, and personally I felt that it was the fault of the play calling. It seems like this has improved, and some of Rodgers’ passing numbers are looking pretty good. He has 12.5 yards per completion, his best since 2014 when he was an All-pro. His 8.1 yards per pass attempt is also the highest it’s been since 2014 (the Pack went 12-4 that season). As long as his receiving group doesn’t just completely fall apart (he’ll eventually get Davante Adams back), he should continue to creep up the QB list – he’s currently the QB7 in fantasy football.
David Montgomery, Wk 4 vs MIN 6.70, Wk 5 @ OAK 9.60, Wk 7 vs NO -0.10.
Montgomery was quite a hyped back coming into the season, and he’s still owned in 88% of Yahoo leagues, but the Bears run game has disappeared. Montgomery’s carries have gone from a season high of 21 in Wk 4 down to 11 and then just 2 carries last week. The Bears have totally abandoned the run game, and have been heavily criticized by the Chicago media because of it. Aside from a random score in Week 5, he has belonged firmly on your bench, which is not befitting of a player who has this kind of ownership share in leagues. The Bears upcoming games are vs LAC, @PHI and vs DET. The Chargers and Lions are both giving up top 10 points to opposing RBs, but I have no faith in the team to run the ball consistently. Not knowing what to expect from this situation, I suggest just staying away from it – don’t be tempted by good matchups or thinking that outside pressure will change the way they call plays.
Chase Edmonds, Wk 5 @ CIN 14.60, Wk 6 vs ATL 12.70, Wk 7 @ NYG 33.00.
Edmonds has been very impressive the last 3 weeks, and coincidentally (or not), the Cardinals have won all 3 of those games. David Johnson was limited last week with a back injury (he should ask Jalen Ramsey about his guy…), but now he’s missing practice with an ankle injury, so I expect to see more Edmonds in Week 8. Edmonds snap percentage had been varying from about 10-40% with Johnson in, but with him out, he was in on 94% of offensive snaps last week. Sure, the Cardinals signed Alfred Morris and Zach Zenner, but they’re just guys to fill out the roster. Edmonds has 5 TDs in the last 3 weeks and will be full steam ahead, even against a tough New Orleans team, who will find the Cardinals a much tougher opponent than the one they faced last week.
John Brown, Wk 4 vs NE 6.90, Wk 5 @TEN 7.50, Wk 7 vs MIA 14.30.
The Bills offense has been a bit shaky, but John Brown has remained steady. He’s got 5 catches per game during this stretch, and his yardage has gone up in each game, from 69 to 75 to 83 last week with a TD tacked on. Brown is on the field for 80+% of snaps every game, with two of the last three going above 90%. He led the team in targets the last 2 weeks and is just 1 behind Cole Beasley for the team lead in targets for the season. He has a significant lead on receiving yards on the team this year. Brown should continue to trend in the right direction as he has great matchups coming up. His next 3 games are vs PHI, vs WAS and @CLE. The Eagles and Redskins are both in the top 10 giving up points to WRs, and Cleveland is 19th. Brown is the WR22 in standard scoring this year, keep him in your lineup for the time being.
Larry Fitzgerald, Wk 5 @CIN 5.80, Wk 6 vs ATL 6.90, Wk 7 @NYG 1.20.
Fitz started the season with back-to-back 100+ yard games and 2 TDs in his first 3, but has not done a lot since then. His yardage high is just 69 during the last 5 weeks, and that came against a really soft Atlanta defense. Last week against the Giants, who are just as soft, he managed just one catch for 12 yards, though that probably had more to do with the way the game was going and how well the Cardinals were running the ball. Regardless, he often trails the RBs in receiving yardage and it’s possible that his age is finally catching up with him. He has to play in New Orleans this week and then plays the 49ers twice in the following three weeks. These are all bad matchups for him and he should probably be on your bench, or the trading block, if you can drum up any interest.
After 3 weeks of play, we can always draw some conclusions based on trends that are observed over the first few games. In this case, I've chosen a few players that have downward trends associated with their performances in Weeks 1-3. We'll see what comes to pass, but don't ignore the trends once they reach 3+ games - after a certain period of time they are statistically likely to continue or level off rather than to reverse course. Is it just about the matchups? Is it about a certain style of play or what schemes the coaches are running? Draw your own conclusions, of course, but use the information below to help with that as you see fit.
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) – Surprise! Jackson finished the 2019 fantasy season as the #1 QB overall with a ridiculous 421.7 fantasy points. The next best was Dak Prescott with 348.9 points. Crazy, right? Well, so far in 2020, Jackson is the #13 QB overall with only 19.8 fantasy points per game (59.3 total). For reference, the QBs on the top like Wilson, Allen, Mahomes, Prescott, and Murray are all averaging around 30 fantasy points per game through the first three games.
Week 1 (vs. CLE): 20/25, 80% comp, 275 yards, 3 TDs, 7/45 rushing, 0 TDs – 27.5 fpts
Week 2 (@ HOU): 18/24, 75% comp, 204 yards, 1 TD, 16/54 rushing, 0 TDs – 17.56 fpts
Week 3 (vs. KC): 15/28, 53.6% comp, 97 yards, 1 TD, 9/83 rushing, 0 TDs – 14.18 fpts
What information can we garner from these stats? Well, Jackson has been trending down in several categories game over game: completions, completion percentage, and passing yards. Granted the Texans and Chiefs have better passing defenses than the Browns so far this season (at #20 and #17 highest fantasy points against QBs respectively vs. #10 for the Browns), but it’s disconcerting to see him not even break into the top 10 when he was being drafted in as high as the 1st and 2nd rounds of fantasy drafts earlier this year. Ouch. All of that said, what is the prognosis for Jackson over the coming weeks? He plays @WAS in Week 4 (#14 fantasy points against QBs), vs. CIN in Week 5 (#25 fantasy points against QBS), and @PHI in Week 6 (#19 fantasy points against QBs). Does it get better? Not really... in the weeks that follow, the Ravens play PIT, IND, NE, and TEN. You are going to keep Jackson on your squad because of his rushing and big play ability, but it is impossible to ignore this downturn. Week 4 is Jackson’s chance to bust out with a big fantasy game and experts still have him on top of the QB heap, but if it is a miss as well there is something not quite right in Baltimore. Run-first is a philosophy we can deal with – run-always is a problem. Marquise Brown is also tied in to this directly with Jackson as the WR1 in Baltimore (12.6, 6.7, 2.3)
Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI) – Drake had a fabulous finish to the 2019 season. He was traded to the Cardinals before Week 9 last year and immediately made his mark on the offense, putting up 162 all-purpose yards and a TD on the ground. Later that same season in Weeks 15-17, he amassed 363 rushing yards along with 7 TDs over those 3 games. It was hard to believe, but those points were very real. Especially to fantasy team managers that were playing against Drake late in the post-season. So far this year, though, he is the #24 RB overall with 32.4 fantasy points (half PPR) which is an average of 10.8 per game. For a running back being drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round earlier this year, that is very disappointing. Let us look at the first 3 games of the 2020 season:
Week 1 (@ SF): 16/60 rushing, 1 TD, 2/5 receiving, 0 TDs – 13.5 fpts
Week 2 (vs. WAS): 20/86 rushing, 0 TDs, 2/9 receiving, 0 TDs – 10.5 fpts
Week 3 (vs. DET): 18/73 rushing, 0 TDs, 1/6 receiving, 0 TDs – 8.4 fpts
What can we learn from this information… well, his amount of touches has been consistent – averaging around 20 per game, so he has the opportunities available to him. He has not gotten very much work in the passing game with Chase Edmonds being a factor (8 receptions including 1 rec. TD in the first 3 games), but the major problem with fantasy production has been his inability to break big plays during the game. This may all change this week, of course. Going up against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 provides a terrific matchup. The Panthers are giving up 32.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. If Drake cannot snap out of this funk in Week 4, his value will plummet, and we may see Edmonds start to chip away at his touches. If I had to bet money on this matchup, though, and I basically am since I’m both playing him and playing against him in multiple fantasy matchups this week, I would say we’re about to see Drake’s biggest game of the season. Could be 15-20 fantasy points in this trend-breaker.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR) – A brand new weapon for the Panthers, Anderson had more than 100 yards in both weeks 1 and 2. The tallest of the starting receivers in Carolina at 6’3” and also coming with a bonus sub-4.4 40-yard dash that we saw often with his time on the Jets.
Week 1 (vs. LV): 6/8, 114 yds, 1 TD – 22.4 fpts
Week 2 (@ TB): 9/10, 109 yds, 0 TD – 13.4 fpts
Week 3 (@ LAC): 5/5, 55 yds, 0 TD – 8 fpts
With the Chargers focusing on taking D.J. Moore away, Anderson again took a large amount of the team’s targets (the most, actually) and was able to haul in all of them for 5 receptions. The Panthers were able to cruise to a victory using mostly Mike Davis and Joey Slye, but we should continue to see Anderson utilized in the passing game and developing more chemistry with Bridgewater from game to game. Anderson is being used constantly on this team and less of the boom/bust target he was on the Jets, so he seems to be a quality WR3 candidate going forward. His next matchup in Week 4 is against a stingy Arizona passing defense allowing only 15.5 fantasy points per game to WRs, but Week 5 looks like a much tastier matchup against the Falcons who have the 3rd worst passing D in the league.
It's hard to believe that we're approaching the end of the first month of the NFL season already. We finally have enough games completed to start to pick up on player trends around the league. For now, I'm focused on Quarterbacks and Running Backs, but we will go over all the positions on tonight's podcast. Trending players will have a three-week fantasy performance that is either going up or going down, and we'll examine why that's the case and what we expect out of that player going forward.
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold (Week 1: 19.06, Week 2: 20.50, Week 3: 25.26) - Darnold has the Panthers rolling with a 3-0 start. He’s only thrown 1 INT so far, and found the end zone three times on the ground, which is always something that you like to see from your fantasy QB. He’s also throwing the ball a decent amount, averaging just over 35 attempts per game with 24 completions per game. Darnold has not played the toughest competition so far, but has plenty of easy matchups coming up with games against PHI, NYG, and ATL all coming up well before his bye week. If you’re streaming QBs, you should love the floor that the QB12 on the season can give you. If you’re in a super flex league, then Darnold is easily an every week starter. Carolina’s strong rushing attack has helped him tremendously. His advanced passing stats are far better this year than they have been in his career.
Justin Herbert (Week 1: 14.38, Week 2: 16.72, Week 3: 30.84) - Herbert had a very slow start to the season after finishing last year as the ROY. He seemed unable to get the Chargers offense going in the first two weeks, scoring only 37 points on offense total. Last week he redeemed himself with 4 touchdowns through the air, one of which was on a game winning 4th quarter drive in their victory over the Chiefs. Herbert is owned in 90% of Fleaflicker leagues, meaning he’s not going to be on the streaming radar. If you drafted him, the urge to push the panic button should be subsiding. Herbert currently sits as the QB13 through three games, but you can safely expect him to finish well inside the top 10 by the end of the season with more performances like he turned in against the Chiefs.
Jared Goff (Week 1: 29.92, Week 2: 19.44, Week 3: 9.08) - Goff has displayed a classic downward trend for the first three weeks of the season. He started off very hot statistically in his first game, getting lots of garbage time points, finishing as the QB3 in Week 1 and providing some hope for Lions fans. But as all good Lions fans know, their hopes were dashed very quickly as the Lions lost the next two games as well. Goff has trended down in completions, attempts, and yardage in each subsequent game, even with plenty of garbage time opportunities in Week 2. While he hasn’t played particularly badly, it’s clear that there just isn’t much talent around him to support big games outside of some fluky garbage time stuff. Goff remains on the streaming radar, but only in great matchups. His floor is probably too low to rely on him and you certainly cannot rely on garbage time points.
Running Backs
Najee Harris (Week 1: 5.40, Week 2: 16.60, Week 3: 21.20) - This one’s for Dave. OK, not really, but I think he likes it when we talk about Steelers players. So, Harris is a rookie, so a slow start was probably to be expected. What I did not expect to see what a stat line like he had last week when he had 14 carries and 19 targets (14 receptions). Harris is lined up to be a PPR monster with action like that. He ramped up from 1 to 5 to 14 receptions, so while you can’t expect numbers like 14 receptions every week, you can assume that he is going to have a relatively high receiving floor. Harris is being used on every down, and with lots of injuries to the receiving corps, it looks like the offense will run through him. There are very few every-down backs in the NFL, and Harris was taken in fantasy drafts with the potential he could be one of those in mind. It looks like everything is going as planned for the Steelers rookie.
David Montgomery (Week 1: 18.30, Week 2: 9.40, Week 3: 6.50) - Montgomery started out the season strong, gaining 108 yards on just 16 carries against the Rams defense, but has really fallen off a cliff along with the rest of the Bears offense since then. On the season, Montgomery is now averaging just 2.0 receptions per game, down from 3.6 last season. His rushing attempts and yards per game are also down from last year. What worries me most is that the Bears appear to have an anemic offense at best and might struggle to move the ball early in games, thus turning them one-dimensional late in games.Until the Bears figure out what they want to do at QB, whether it’s running out a game manager, or developing Justin Fields, Montgomery will be a touchdown dependent RB2/3 with a relatively low floor for a guy that is going to still see a high percentage of snaps.
Ezekiel Elliott (Week 1: 4.90, Week 2: 16.70, Week 3: 25.10) - Zeke has trended up in many stat categories, so he’s the perfect example for this segment. His carries have gone 11, 16, 17. His yardage is 33, 71, 95 and his TDs have gone 0, 1, 2. Zeke was obviously a first round pick and is being started regardless of his slow start, but it’s nice to see that he’s ramped his production up nicely and while Tony Pollard is going to get his share of touches, Zeke is still the primary back and will be in line for 15-20 touches on average every game. The only thing that worries me about Zeke is that the Cowboys have a tendency to go pass-heavy in some games, as evidenced in week 1, thus leaving Zeke with a very low floor for a premier RB. If he was more involved in the passing offense, I would be fine with any game script that the Cowboys are presented with. Unfortunately so far this year, he has 2.3 receptions per game, down from 3.5 just a year ago, and way down from his career high of 5.1 in 2018 when he led the league in touches. 51 touches through 3 games is not what you drafted Zeke for, so you’re going to have to hope he does a lot with the touches he does get.
Here at drinkfive, we love trends, paradigms, fads, all sorts. Of course, you're here for some player info, and we're here to deliver! We like to look at players who are trending up or down for three straight weeks and break down why they're in the spot they are and if we think that will continue. Without further ado:
Carson Wentz (QB-IND) - Wk 7 @ SF 20.3, Wk 8 vs TEN 20.34, Wk 9 vs NYJ 24.18: Before this stretch, Wentz had only one game above 20 points. Now he’s strung together three straight good games. He’s the QB7 over the last 3 games. The Jets pass defense is doing well this year, and he had the best fantasy game against them this year. The Colts offense is really rolling - 30+ points in the last 4 straight games. Wentz is also connecting with Pittman, he has 4 touchdowns over the last 3 games. The Colts are not on bye till week 14. They have good matchups coming up with 3 of their next 4 opponents giving up top 12 fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Damien Harris (RB-NE) - Wk 7 @ NYJ 24.3, Wk 8 @ LAC 14.0, Wk 9 @ CAR 9.8: Harris may have peaked against the Jets this year. Now he’s not practicing with a concussion. Last week, Rhamondre Stevenson had over 100 yards, got 12 touches and was in on only 27% of offensive snaps. Harris is not being used in the passing game much at all, he only has 3 targets once this year. Avoid the curse of the Belichick RBs. Two of the next three matchups for Harris are against teams giving up top 10 fewest points to opposing RBs. His bye in week 14 is still upcoming. Harris’s value is fading fast.
Elijah Moore (WR-NYJ) - Wk 7 @ NE 9.7, Wk 8 vs CIN 10.1, Wk 9 @ IND 23.9: Moore has had his share of targets in the games that he’s played so far this year, but he was really able to turn it on the last couple of weeks since Zach Wilson exited the picture. He has 7 touches in each of the last two games, and has 3 touchdowns in the last 3 weeks. Moore is still only owned in 50% of Fleaflicker leagues, so he’s definitely worth a speculative add for the rest of the season. After this weeks’ game against Buffalo, he has two great matchups against Miami and Houston.