11/11/14, Trending! Julio Jones, Le'Veon Bell, DeAndre Hopkins and more..
Tonight on the show, we were joined by our rookie expert Shawn Foss. Shawn has joined us on and off this year, and his input is always valued. We enjoyed a bomber of the Abita Select Imperator Black IPA, Revolution Fistmas and Continuum IPA from Saugatuck Brewing Company, all of them excellent.
We continued to track trends and drank for last week's misses while assigning Shawn to drink for the audience. This week we have Cam Newton scoring over 13.34 points and continuing his upward trend. Julio Jones will easily score 12 or more against the Panthers. DeAndre Hopkins we split on, Dave and Jason saying he'll go less than 10, Shawn says he'll be over 10. Le'Veon Bell has been trending down - Dave and Shawn say that he'll go over 12 points (Shawn says he'll get that with yardage alone), I say he'll stay under 12 points. Finally, Ahmad Bradshaw has been trending down, to everyone's surprise - but everyone also agrees that he will reverse the trend and score over 12 points this week.
At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.
Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:
Russell Wilson: Wk 7 @ STL - 37.12 pts, Wk 8 @ CAR - 14.46 pts, Wk 9 vs Oak - 10.26 pts
Wilson has been up and down all year, which way does he go?
Last week, Dave and I both stated that Wilson would resume his proper fantasy output and score over 18 points. He did just that, putting up 21.58 points in a rout of the Giants last week. His passing performance left much to be desired, but 107 yards rushing and a late score on the ground saved his fantasy day in a big way.
Emmanuel Sanders: Wk 7 vs SF - 10.10 pts, Wk 8 vs SD - 30.60 pts, Wk 9 @ NE - 15.10 pts
Sanders averaged 9.8 pts per game first 5 games, 18.6 per game in the last 3. Which one do we see going forward?
Dave and I both said he will continue to do well, scoring 15 points or more. In Week 10, Sanders had 8 rec for 67 yards and 2 TD, adding in a 5 yd rush, good for 19.20 points. Sanders now has 6 TD on the year and is clearly a perfect replacement for Eric Decker in the Denver offense. Sanders is officially a stud!
Kelvin Benjamin: Wk 7 @ GB - 12.10 pts, Wk 8 vs SEA - 9.40 pts, Wk 9 vs NO - 1.80 pts
Benjamin has the 16th most fantasy points this season, but will he rebound from this slump?
We also agreed that Benjamin would stay relevant and put up 8 or more points. Benjamin was having another terrible performance on Monday night football, with 1 catch for 13 yards going into the 4th quarter, but then scored twice and put up a 3 for 70 with 2 TD line, good for 19.00 points. Is this comforting as a fantasy owner? No, but then again, why do you care how they score the points, as long as it’s before the clock hits 0:00.
Alfred Morris: Wk 7 vs TEN - 5.40 pts, Wk 8 @ DAL - 14.50 pts, Wk 9 @ MIN - 22.90
Morris averaged 10.1 pts per game, first 6 games, and 14.3 pts per game last 3. He had a really rough stretch against SEA, ARI and TEN in there.
Morris was on bye Week 10, so we will follow up on this next week, but we both say he will score a solid 14 points or more.
Branden Oliver: Wk 7 vs KC - 7.80 pts, Wk 8 @ DEN - 6.30 pts, Wk 9 @ MIA - 2.60 pts
Oliver scored just 16.7 pts in the last 3 weeks after putting up 48.6 points in the previous two weeks. With Mathews coming back off the bye, is Oliver relevant anymore?
Oliver was also on bye Week 10 and both Dave and I see him continuing to fall into obscurity, especially with Ryan Mathews expected to return to the lineup against Oakland on Sunday.
Ertz is a great red zone target that isn't utilized. Will this change with Sanchez in?
This was the one prediction that we split on last week. Dave said Ertz will stay under 5 points, and I said he’d go higher. Looks like I’m drinking for this one – Ertz finished the game with 1 catch for only 17 yards. Clearly, no, Sanchez doesn’t change anything as it appears that Celek is his preferred TE.
Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 10 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!
Cam Newton: Wk 8 vs Sea – 6.24 pts, Wk 9 vs NO – 13.34 pts, Wk 10 @ PHI – 15.84 pts
Newton is really a test of this trend theory. Everyone sees his play as being awful, but he’s actually trending up from his season low of 6.24 against the Seahawks. Newton also gets a bye coming up in Week 12, so is he going to stumble, or put it together for the rest of the season?
Julio Jones: Wk 7 @ BAL – 5.60 pts, Wk 8 vs DET – 5.80 pts, Wk 10 @ TB – 11.90 pts
Jones has really struggled this year compared to where his draft position was, making him a top 5 WR (preseason). Jones is still serviceable this season, but has just as many single digit games as he does double digit, which means he’s probably not as reliable as you’d like. Is this a product of Matt Ryan or Julio, and will he return to greatness or be cursed to NFC South obscurity?
Hopkins is stepping up (trying to anyway) as the number one guy in Houston. He’s trending up and has 3 100+ yard games under his belt this year and is averaging about 10 targets per game over the last 3 games. Will Hopkins continue his upward trend, or will the new QB in Houston ruin his party?
Le’Veon Bell: Wk 8 vs IND – 14.80 pts, Wk 9 vs Bal – 11.80 pts, Wk 10 @ NYJ – 6.90 pts
Bell has scored double digit points in every single week except for Week 10 now as the Steelers appear to have all but abandoned the run game. Now, these numbers aren’t disastrous, but he’s moved out of RB1 territory. Bell has only 21 carries over the last two weeks, after 24 the week before, two of those games being blowouts for the Steelers. With the passing game working so well lately, will Bell continue to be the odd man out on the Steelers?
Bradshaw is trending down, which was a surprise to me. He has 8 total TD’s this year, so he’s been putting up points and is clearly worth a start the rest of the year, right? With matchups against NE, Jax, Was, Cle, Hou and Dal to finish the year, it’s a mixture of good and bad run defenses. Bradshaw seems a bit too TD dependent, but can you really sit the top back on one of the best teams in the league?
Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 11 and we will recap the results next week.
Welcome to another week of fantasy football investment advice geared to help you win it big in DFS. Last week was pretty rough going as injuries knocked out a few of our guys mid-game to limit their fantasy production so hopefully we can avoid the big injuries this week. Speaking of this week, I'll be taking the bulk of my risk on an insanely cheap backup QB turned starter and using the savings to target a few big names.
QB - Luke McCown, NO - $5,200 at CAR: It was announced today that Drew Brees will sit out week 3 with his bruised rotator cuff which opens the door for McCown to show the Saints he can play outside of practice. This pick is primarily for the price to afford better position players for the rest of the roster, but McCown is also an unknown so we could get a surprise and end up with more value here than expected.
RB - Carlos Hyde, SF - $7,800 at ARI: Hyde was one of the aforementioned injured players from my lineup in week 2 where he didn't play the entire second half. Before getting injured he was on pace for 26 carries and 100 yards last week which would've matched his carries from week 1. I expect heavy touches from Hyde this week with Reggie Bush sidelines again. Matchup looks good on paper too as Arizona is giving up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing RBs.
RB - Justin Forsett, BAL - $7,200 vs. CIN: Forsett has been under performing from his numbers last year, but a home game against a Bengals defense giving up the second most fantasy points on the ground thus far is just what he needs to get back on track. It looks like Lorenzo Taliaferro may not play or be limited this week as well which could mean more goal line looks for Forsett as well.
WR - Antonio Brown, PIT - $9,300 at STL: This is the number 1 reason for taking the cheap value at QB, to be able to afford the hands down best WR option any given week. Brown is coming off a 195 yard performance on 9 catches with a touchdown and a 2 point conversion last week which he could easily replicate.
WR - Julio Jones, ATL - $9,000 at DAL: This would be the number 1a reason for taking the cheap value at QB. Julio Jones has dominated all season and it looks like Atlanta wants to feed him the ball as the only WR with more targets through 2 weeks is Julian Edelman. With Tevin Coleman out this week I expect Atlanta to lean on the pass even more.
WR - James Jones, GB - $5,700 vs. KC: Since Jones has been reunited with Green Bay he's done nothing but score TDs. He may be a risky play since he hasn't been getting many targets, but the ones he does get are quality in the red zone. There is also an outside chance Davante Adams will either not play or be limited this week due to an ankle injury so Jones could see an uptick in targets.
TE - Tyler Eifert, CIN - $5,900 at BAL: It looks as if Eifert has established himself as the number 2 passing option in Cincinnati and through 2 weeks has had the second most targets among TEs just behind Gronkowski. The Ravens have been good at stopping the run this year so expect Dalton to have to air it out frequently.
K - Nick Folk, NYJ - $4,600 vs. PHI: Kickers aren't interesting, especially choosing bottom barrel kickers. Philly is giving up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing kickers for whatever that is worth though.
DEF - Seahawks, SEA - $5,300 vs. CHI: This game should be an absolute bloodbath in favor of Seattle. Chicago is forced to start Jimmy Clausen at QB and will also be without Alshon Jeffery. Expect Seattle to hold the Bears to little or no points as well as to record a few turnovers.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
Julio Jones became the 6th player ever to hit the 300-yard mark in a single game, putting up the monster stat line of 12 rec, 300 rec yds, and 1 TD. Everyone who panicked after week three's 16-yard performance can direct their fears elsewhere (Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick come to mind). Jones will be fine going forward, namely because his QB is the best so far in 2016. Matt Ryan currently leads the league in passing yards (1473), passing TD's (11), has only 2 INT's and even has 2-2 pt conversions. His 109.62 fantasy points are 20% higher than the second highest scoring QB, Drew Brees.
The Patriots were shut out for the first time at home since 1993, which predates the Belichick era. The last time the team was shut out was in Miami in 2006. Of course, most people would agree that the lack of points comes from a distinct lack of Tom Brady. Brady's suspension is over now and he'll be eager to get going after leading the league in touchdowns last season. It's time for the Tom Brady Middle Finger tour, you almost feel bad for the Cleveland Browns.
152.5 QB Rating
Ben Roethlisberger put up a 152.5 QB rating against the Kansas City Chiefs, who had been giving up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QB's. Ben's 300 yards, 5 TD performance will certainly put a dent in those numbers. This is the 8th game of his career where he finished with a QB rating over 150 - he has 3 games with a perfect score of 158.3. The Steelers struggled last week, but with the return of Le'Veon Bell, expect full steam ahead with the best QB-RB-WR punch in the league.
No kicker has put up 20 points yet this season. Mike Nugent and Dustin Hopkins both share the top spot with 19 points. Why bring this up, you ask? Throwing darts at a wall is as good an option as any when it comes to picking a kicker week to week. Nobody is that consistent - AHEM, Stephen Gostkowski and your zero points. Well, this column is called Statistically Insignificant, after all. This stat is pretty useless. The third best kicker this season is only owned in 11% of leagues - there's a stat you can use. Now go pick him up, or throw a dart at the wall, I don't care - it's a kicker!
DeMarco Murray has 77.60 points already this season, helped along by his 5 touchdowns. He's first among non-QB's, and 8th overall among all players. He's got the number 2 guy, Melvin Gordon, beat by 10 points. Stand up if you had these two guys leading the league after 4 weeks, even above the stud WR's. Of course, one person did have them - my opponent this week, damn you ReDraft!
For Fantasy Football team managers, playing in week 15 is all about making the right starts to get to the championship. Whether you fought hard to get into the playoffs from the bottom of the league or coasted into a bye spot early on, everyone is on an even playing field and (in most cases) only has one shot.
We'll be paying special attention to the players that you should and shouldn't start in week 15 and what matchups to keep in mind should you make the championship game in Week 16. We're joined by regular guest and drinkfive.com contributor Mike Mocerino.
Welcome back! We're joined this week by fantasy football veteran Matt Ellis to discuss the best starts moving forward into Week 13. This is the last week of the regular season of most fantasy football leagues, so put your best foot forward!
Peterman completed 6-of-14 passes for 66 yards with five interceptions. Wow, Buffalo. Nice work. In this episode, we'll be touching on the Bills' and NFL fantasy players going forward as well as the other highs and lows of Week 11 and what they mean to your fantasy squad.