Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 6 was another banner week for the rookie class. There were 4 rookie running backs that finished in the top 12 at the position, and 3 rookie receivers as well. Justin Jefferson, D’Andre Swift, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire had especially big days. For Jefferson, it was the second time he’s topped 160 yards this season, and Swift and CEH each set their season-high in rushing yards. CEH made an emphatic case to remain the lead back despite the signing of Le’Veon Bell. This week there aren’t as many automatic starters among the rookies, but there are plenty who could have big games in week 7. There are still plenty of byes and injuries to contend with, so you me be scouring the free agent pool a little deeper than usual, and there may be a rookie who can help. Keep in mind that any players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. Let’s dive into what to expect…
Rookies to Start:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 7: vs. Jax.): Herbert has consistently produced since taking the starting job, reaching at least 260 yards passing each week. He’s also thrown for 7 touchdowns in the last two weeks, and this week faces a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and has allowed the 8th-most QB points per game (all point totals and rankings based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted). Herbert isn’t an auto-start in 1-QB leagues, but you should have 2 studs you’re playing instead if you’re sitting him in 2-QB formats. The Chargers don’t blow anyone out, so they shouldn’t get so far out in front that they stop throwing. Herbert should be a very safe bet for 250+ yards and at least 2 scores.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 7: @Atl.): Swift finally had the breakout game people who drafted him have been waiting for, rushing for 116 yards and 2 scores in a blowout win over the Jaguars. He still only played 38% of the offensive snaps, but he made the most of his opportunities against a terrible Jacksonville defense. This week’s matchup Isn’t quite as juicy for Swift, but his receiving prowess should be a factor in this one. Atlanta has allowed the 2nd most receptions, 3rd most receiving yards, and the most receiving TDs to opposing running backs per game. They’ve coughed up the 15th-most RB points per game, so the receiving work is where a large portion of the scoring is coming from and Swift is the Detroit back best positioned to take advantage. There is some risk here since Detroit has been inconsistent with their running back usage, but I have faith that this matchup favors Swift, and that he’s going to finish as an RB2 or better in PPR and half-PPR formats.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 7: @LAC): Robinson has consistently seen his weekly upside limited by the Jaguars’ overall futility, but that may be changing this week. Chris Thompson was added to the team’s COVID reserve list, meaning Robinson is likely the best back on the roster to be used in passing situations, and he’s already been the main back on early downs. Devine Ozigbo was activated from IR this week, but I would still expect Robinson to operate as a bellcow against the Chargers. The Chargers do rank 13th in run defense DVOA so this isn’t a cake matchup, but Robinson has at least 15 touches in every game this season and at least 4 catches in each of the last 4. He’ll be a high-floor RB2 in PPR leagues this week who could have a higher ceiling than usual without Thompson around to siphon passing-down work. He should be started in most formats.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Higgins has developed a clear rapport with Joe Burrow, drawing an average of 8 targets per game over the past 4 contests, and leading the WR group in snaps played in 3 of those 4 games. He broke through for his first 100-yard receiving game last week, and this week gets to face off with a Cleveland defense that has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game in the league. Joe Burrow had his best game of the season against these Browns, and while Higgins is going to match up with the best corner the Browns have (Denzel Ward), his target share should be solid enough that he’ll be a safe WR3 this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Burrow’s best game so far this season came in week 2 against the same Browns he faces this week, when he threw for 316 yards and 3 TDs. The concern I have is that he had to throw the ball 61 times to reach those numbers. He hasn’t had even 40 attempts in any other game this season. The Browns have been playing better defense against QBs in recent weeks, holding Philip Rivers to fewer than 8 points and Big Ben to fewer than 11, and Burrow has been held without a passing TD in 3 of his 6 starts. He’s had a rushing score in two of those games, but I wouldn’t count on him continuing to find rushing scores to bail out his worst fantasy days. Burrow isn’t likely to kill you if you play him as your QB2 this week considering he’s already had a huge game against this defense, but he’s by no means a guy you have to start in 2-QB leagues if you have options you like better.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 7: @Den.): It seems likely that Le’Veon Bell will make his debut for the Chiefs this week, and that will immediately change CEH’s status as an every-week auto-start. Bell is going to be involved. That’s not to say that Edwards-Helaire can’t help your fantasy team going forward, but he’s going to lose touches which will cap his ceiling. This week’s matchup with Denver isn’t a great one on paper. The Chiefs are a heavy 9.5-point favorite, so they should be able to lean on the run game, but Denver has done a great job limiting opposing backs. The Broncos rank 5th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-fewest running back fantasy points per game. CEH could supplement his numbers with some receiving work, but James White is the only back to record more than 3 catches in a game against the Broncos this year. When you factor in Bell taking some of Clyde’s touches, it’s not hard to envision CEH having a lackluster fantasy game. He still has top-10 upside in this one, but the floor is a bit lower this week.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Dal.): Week 6 was the 5th time in 6 games that JD McKissic played more snaps than Gibson, and that will continue to happen as long as the Washington Football Team continues to play from behind. This week’s game with the Dak-less Cowboys is a pick’em in Vegas, so there is a reasonable chance that the game script stays at least neutral for Washington this week. Dallas has been abysmal on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 29th in run defense DVOA, and Gibson has been more active in the passing game in recent weeks with 4+ catches in three straight games. Antonio will probably continue to reside on the borderline until he sees his snap share go up, but he’s a decent RB2 option this week.
RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 7: vs. Jax.): At this point I am assuming that Justin Jackson, who is questionable with a knee injury, will play. That will limit Kelley to being a flex option this week, albeit one with plenty of upside. He’d be a sure-fire start if Jackson is out. The Jaguars have proven to be one of the worst defenses in the league, allowing the 6th-most RB points per game and ranking 22nd in run defense DVOA. Kelley has handled at least 10 touches in every game this season, even as he’s split playing time with Austin Ekeler and then Jackson. Against the Jaguars, the game script should favor the Chargers, so he should see more volume than usual, and those touches are gold against a defense like Jacksonville. Don’t be discouraged this week if you need Kelley as a fill-in. This should be his best fantasy game since week 2.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 7: @Hou.): The expectation at this point is that Aaron Jones is going to sit out on Sunday nursing a calf injury. If that happens, Dillon is going to get his first real chance to make his mark. Tyler Ervin will be out as well, so the Green Bay backfield will be split between Dillon and Jamaal Williams. Houston has been one of the best matchups for running backs, ranking 28th in run defense DVOA and giving up the 2nd-most RB points per game. They’ve given up by far a league-worst 161 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. There is still some uncertainty to how the workload will be split between Dillon and Williams. Williams has played nearly 5 times as many snaps as Dillon for the year and has 43 touches to just 13 for Dillon. My best guess as to how the split will play out is that they will have a pretty even split on early downs, and that Williams will get almost all of the passing down work. In this plus matchup, even half the carries should give Dillon a strong shot at 60+ rushing yards. He’s in play as a flex option, and is a stronger play in non-PPR formats.
RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): In the Jets’ first game after releasing Le’Veon Bell, Perine stepped into the lead back role, playing 58% of the offensive snaps, but Frank Gore still handled 15 touches to Perine’s 9. Buffalo isn’t a bad matchup for running backs. They rank 24th in run defense DVOA and have given up the 14th-most RB points per game. Perine should continue to see his touches increase going forward, and that means double-digit touches are possible this week. Against Buffalo that puts him on the flex radar, but I would avoid playing him unless you are desperate. The Jets implied total for the week is just 16.5, so they are not an offense to target.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 7: @Ten.): Claypool followed up his 4-touchdown breakout game with another top-10 WR finish in week 6, logging 81 scrimmage yards and a score. The matchup this week is a good one with the Titans allowing the 6th-most WR points per game, but the concern I have for Claypool is the return of Diontae Johnson. Johnson was the clear WR1 in this offense when he was healthy, seeing 23 targets come his way in the first two weeks of the season (31.5% share). Claypool seemed to mostly assume Johnson’s role the last two weeks, but I would expect his workload to take a sizable hit with Johnson returning. We don’t have a clear picture of what the Steelers’ WR depth chart will look like with everyone healthy. I expect it’ll be James Washington who sees the biggest drop in playing time this week, but Claypool takes enough of a hit that I see him as an upside WR3 this week rather than an automatic start.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 7: @Was.): The Dallas offense looked like a shell of itself in week 6 with Dak Prescott out, but Lamb managed to put up a passable fantasy day on volume alone. He matched his season-high with 11 targets and finished with a 7-64 line. He should continue to be one of the top 2 options in the passing game along with Amari Cooper, but Dalton at QB certainly looks like it’s going to put a dent in his upside. The matchup this week is a tough one. Washington ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game. If you start Lamb this week, you probably shouldn’t expect much more than what he put up last week.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 7: @NYJ): John Brown has been ruled out for week 7, and that bodes well for Davis. In the two games where Brown played less than 50% of the snaps, Davis posted 4-81 on 4 targets, and 5-51 on 9 targets. The Jets have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA, and Buffalo has an implied point total of 29.5 points. If Davis manages to get in the end zone, I expect this to easily be his highest scoring fantasy week of the year. Anything short of 10 PPR points in this one would be a disappointment.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 7: @LAC): Shenault is coming off his worst game of the season in week 6, and week 7 should at least be a little bit better for him. The Chargers are just a middling pass defense, and although Shenault will draw a tough individual matchup with Casey Heyward for much of the game, he’s been targeted at least 6 times in each of the last 4 games. The best sign for optimism for Viska is that the Chargers allow the 6th-most yards after catch per game and Shenault does a lot of his damage by getting the ball in space. He’s in play as a PPR WR3 with a little bit of upside in deeper leagues.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Jeudy struggled to make a fantasy impact last Sunday in a tough matchup with the Patriots, but the more concerning result from that game is that for the second consecutive game he was significantly out-targeted by Tim Patrick, who may be operating as the Broncos’ WR1. I expected that the return of Drew Lock would result in more balls going to Jeudy, but that wasn’t the case at least for one game. This week Jeudy gets another tough matchup in the slot against Tyrann Mathieu. His volume could see a boost this week with Denver a 9.5-point underdog, but it remains to be seen if that will translate into more points against a defense that allows the 5th-fewest WR points per game. He’s no more than a floor WR3 play this week in deeper leagues.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): Akers has been an afterthought in the Rams offense since returning from his injury, playing just 1 snap in week 6 and just 14 snaps total in the two games since he’s been back. There’s no question the Rams want to make an effort to get him more involved going forward, but it’s hard to be sure when it will happen. This week looked like a good opportunity with Darrell Henderson questionable due to a thigh injury, but he was removed from the injury report late in the week and should be good to go. The Bears rank 11th in run defense DVOA and allow the 11th fewest RB points per game, so there isn’t much reason to expect a useful fantasy day from Akers if he’s only going to see a handful of touches.
RB Ja’Mycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 7: @NE): Hasty looked good last week in relief of Raheem Mostert after Mostert left Sunday night’s game with injury, but the backfield outlook for the 49ers is a little murky going forward. Jeff Wilson Jr. is likely to be back this week, and he has served as a goal-line option when Mostert has been out previously. This has the makings of a 3-man committee with Hasty splitting early down work with Jerick McKinnon, McKinnon handling passing down work, and Wilson being the short yardage and goal-line option. That’s going to severely limit the fantasy upside for all 3 of them. If I had to choose one to play it would be McKinnon. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, have allowed the 5th-fewest running back points per game.
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 7: @LV): Vaughn looked good in week 6 putting up 42 yards on just 5 carries, but his window for fantasy viability seems to have closed with LeSean McCoy returning last week and Leonard Fournette practicing in full ahead of this week’s game. It couldn’t have happened at a worse time for the rookie. The Bucs are about to square off with a defense that allows the 3rd-most RB points per game. It’s unlikely he gets back to 5 carries this week unless it’s a blowout win again. Vaughn shouldn’t be near your fantasy lineups this week despite a plum matchup.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 7: @NE): Aiyuk saw his lowest target total since week 2 last Sunday night against the Rams. He managed to bail out his fantasy day with a touchdown, but he’s only reached 4+ catches and 60+ scrimmage yards once in the 5 games he’s played, and this was the second time in three games that he finished with fewer than 20 receiving yards. The Patriots have given up the 13th-most WR points per game, but a lot of that is due to more than 200 yards and 4 TDs that they gave up to Seattle’s receivers in week 2. They’ve been better in their other contests. Aiyuk will need to find the end zone to be a worthwhile option in week 7, and the 49ers have an implied total of just 21 points. I’d search for better options this week.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 7: vs. TB): Ruggs posted the best game of his young career in week 6 with 118 receiving yards and a touchdown, but he got there with just 2 catches on 3 targets. It’s hard to imagine him duplicating those numbers if his targets don’t increase. The performance last week came against a stingy Chiefs’ pass defense, and he gets another stingy defense this week. Tampa Bay ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game. The Bucs have given up 3 pass plays of 40+ yards in 6 games, and it will probably take at least one deep ball for Ruggs to return value again. There is upside for Ruggs, but a low floor as well. You may need some antacids handy if you start Ruggs this week.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 7: @LAR): I’ve been high on Mooney in past weeks, but he hasn’t managed to turn a solid target share into productive fantasy weeks. Mooney is averaging 6 targets per game over the past 4 weeks, but he’s only reached 40+ receiving yards once in that span, and he’s yet to catch a touchdown from Nick Foles. This week would seem like a good one for him to get a few extra targets with Jalen Ramsey likely to be following Allen Robinson around, but the Bears have shown they’re willing to keep throwing Robinson’s way in tough matchups and the Rams have allowed the fewest WR points per game in the league. Anything over 40 yards out of Mooney this week would be a success for him.
WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Hamler is expected to return this week after missing the last two games, but he walks into a tough matchup against the Chiefs. He’s averaged 6 targets per game in the two games that he played in full this season, but Kansas City has allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game. Denver should be playing from behind and throwing a decent amount, but they’ve yet to throw for 250 yards in a game as a team and Hamler is yet to catch for 50. I’d look for a safer option this week.
WR Freddie Swain, SEA (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Swain has started to push David Moore for the WR3 role in Seattle in recent weeks, but he’s still not quite to the point that he’s fantasy relevant. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the focal points of the passing game, so Swain will have to move fully ahead of Moore to be worth consideration. This isn’t a week to consider taking a shot on an ancillary Seattle receiver with Arizona allowing the 7th-fewest WR points per game. Monitor Swain in dynasty leagues, but there’s no reason to play him this week.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 7: @LV): Johnson got in the end zone last weekend, but it was his only target of the game. He isn’t going to get much work as long as the rest of the WR group is healthy. He played just 17 snaps in week 6, and I don’t expect that number to be much higher in weeks where everyone else is healthy. This week’s matchup with the Raiders is a good one, but Johnson won’t be in a position to take advantage of it.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 7: @LAR): Kmet scored his first touchdown last week, but it wasn’t the result of increased playing time. He still played only 35% of the snaps and remains the number 3 tight end in this offense. There’s no reason to consider him as anything more than a TD dart throw. The Rams have given up 4 tight end scores this season, but that doesn’t make it likely Kmet scores the 5th.
Rookies on byes in week 7: QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA, RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, RB JK Dobbins, BAL, WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, WR Devin Duvernay, BAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 7: @NYJ): Moss returned to the lineup last Monday against Kansas City, but he played just 25% of the offensive snaps and tallied 5 carries and 10 yards. The key to Moss’s value is going to come from red zone opportunities, but last Monday the Bills ran just two offensive plays in the red zone. Both were touchdown passes. There should be a LOT more opportunity in this game for both Moss and Singletary. The Bills are favored by 13 points and should have plenty of chances to run the ball in the second half. The Jets have allowed the 7th-most RB points per game, and Moss has a very real chance to get double-digit touches against that defense if the game goes the way Vegas expects it to. Moss would be an interesting dart throw if you’re in a tough spot in a deeper league, and he costs barely more than the minimum on DraftKings.
WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will both be sidelined on Sunday, and while Tre’Quan Smith will be the biggest beneficiary, I’d expect Callaway to be an every-down player as well. Callaway played more snaps than Sanders back in week 5 and finished that game with 4 catches for 34 yards on 6 targets. The Panthers have done a pretty good job limiting opposing WRs, holding them to the 5th-fewest points per game, so the Saints offense is going to run mostly through Kamara, Jared Cook, and Latavius Murray. There should still be enough work for the receivers for Callaway to see another 6 or 7 targets, and with an implied total just below 30 points for New Orleans there should be a chance at a TD as well. Callaway costs the minimum on DraftKings and can be a nice fill-in WR in deeper leagues if byes or injuries are an issue for you.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Mims finally makes his season debut this week after battling through a hamstring injury, and while it would take a brave fantasy player to put him in the lineup in week 7, he shouldn’t be languishing on the waiver wire in deeper leagues. There is very little stiff competition for targets on the Jets’ depth chart, so it shouldn’t take Mims long to find his way into a prominent role. Jamison Crowder is doubtful for week 7, so his 11.5 targets per game will have to go somewhere, but the most likely candidate to benefit this week would be Braxton Berrios. The Bills allow the 12th-fewest WR points per game, so even if Mims does see a reasonable target share he’ll have limited upside this week. He’s a guy you should be stashing for now, and only considering as a minimum cost DFS option in week 7.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 7: @Cin.): Bryant had been building toward being a usable weekly option in 2 tight end leagues, but that was before David Njoku returned to the lineup. In week 6, Njoku played more snaps than Bryant for the first time all season. That would’ve made Bryant droppable in all formats…but then Austin Hooper popped up with an injury that will keep him out this week. The Browns play with 2 tight ends on the field a lot, and the Bengals have allowed 4 tight end scores in the last two weeks. Bryant is worth considering as a TD dart throw in DFS and if you’re desperate in deep leagues. I would prefer David Njoku to Bryant, but both have upside in this one.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions this week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on who winds up being inactive on game-day and make sure none of them are in your lineups. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
