Welcome back to the Rookie Report! This fantasy season has become a weekly exercise in dodging landmines, whether they be of the injury or COVID variety, and now that bye weeks are here, it gets even messier. This is the 3rd week in a row with a game in question due to COVID-19, and with the state of the running back position, we really need every game on the slate to happen. 8 of the top 16 running backs by preseason ADP will be sidelined either by injury or a bye, and one of the 8 that will be playing is Kenyan Drake (Drake is currently the RB32 in PPR scoring despite not missing a game). This is a week where you’re going to see some dicey flex options that make it into lineups, especially in deeper leagues. There are a few rookies that may be able to help. Keep in mind that all rookies listed below at the same position and same header are listed in the order that I would play them this week. Also, any references to fantasy scoring ranks are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive in and talk about what to expect in week 6…
Rookies to Start:
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 6: @Buf.): This week has been a tough one for folks with Edwards-Helaire on their rosters. It started with Darrel Williams taking 40% of the backfield snaps last Sunday against the Raiders and ended with Kansas City signing Le’Veon Bell, who will undoubtedly take a huge chunk out of CEH’s workload. Luckily for Edwards-Helaire, Bell will not be active this week, and CEH will get at least one more chance to shine. Despite ceding more snaps to Williams last week, Edwards-Helaire still had at least 18 combined opportunities (carries + targets) for the 5th straight week and had 6+ targets for the third time in 4 games. Buffalo was one of the strongest defenses in the league in 2019, but they have struggled early in 2020. The Bills rank 22nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Chiefs have a gaudy implied total this week of 31 points, so there is a solid chance that CEH finds paydirt. If you have him, he should be in your lineup. If he does have a big game, it would be wise to test the market and attempt to trade him after the week in redraft formats if you can get someone to pay up for him.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): We haven’t seen a true breakout game from Taylor yet, but we have seen a decent amount of consistency. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in 4 out of 5 games this year but hasn’t reached 20 in any of them. That could change this week. This matchup should play to Taylor’s strengths. Cincinnati has done a good job of limiting receiving production by opposing backs, but Taylor doesn’t do much of his damage through the air. He’s tallied just 6 catches in the past 4 games. The Bengals have given up the 3rd-most RB rushing yards per game so far, and The Colts are favored by 7.5 points this week. A positive game script and an injury to Jordan Wilkins means Taylor will likely see his highest snap share of the season, and may finally have a game where he’s able to get into a rhythm running the ball. He should be a very safe RB2 this week with upside for more.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Robinson has continued to show himself to be a weekly fantasy starter in recent weeks, but his ceiling continues to be limited by the Jaguars’ overall struggles. During Jacksonville’s current 4-game losing streak, the rookie has played more than 60% of the snaps just once, with the team preferring to give Chris Thompson more run when they are trailing. Robinson has made the most of the snaps he is playing, finishing among the top-30 finishers at the position in each of the past 4 weeks, and in the top-10 twice. This week he faces off with Detroit, who ranks 31st in run defense DVOA, so it’s a juicy matchup, but the Jaguars are again underdogs. If they can keep this game in a neutral or positive game script, Robinson has top-5 upside this week. In any case, he should be a locked-and-loaded RB2 in most lineups. In DFS formats he’ll continue to be a better option in cash games than tournaments. He’s the 10th-highest priced RB on DraftKings this week.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 6: @NYG): Gibson runs into a bit of the same problem that James Robinson does – although he’s shown himself to be a capable receiver, the team still has another receiving back that they like to use more when they play from behind, and they play from behind a lot. JD McKissic has played 12 more snaps this season than Gibson, but Gibson has scored nearly 30 more PPR points than McKissic on the season. This week projects to be a close game for Washington for once and the Giants allow the 13th-most RB points per game. That should help Gibson see the field a bit more than usual this week, and the switch to Kyle Allen at QB appears that it will benefit the rookie as well. Allen targeted his running backs on 6 of his 14 pass attempts last Sunday. I view Gibson as a borderline option most weeks, but this week with a decent matchup and so many running backs out, you’re probably going to have a hard time finding a better option than Gibson in your flex spot.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Starting Claypool this week will probably feel like point chasing after his breakout 4-TD game last Sunday, but on paper, it’s the right call. With Diontae Johnson knocked out of the game early, Claypool pretty much assumed his role against Philly. Johnson had a 31.5% target share in the first two weeks of the season before injuries popped up, and Claypool was targeted on 32.3% of Big Ben’s targets in week 5. The Browns have allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game so far this year, and Johnson is going to be sidelined again Sunday. Claypool also has a bit of history on his side this week. In the last 25 years, there have been 10 instances of a player catching 4 TD passes in one game. 7 of those players reached double-digit PPR points the following week, 6 of them scored 15+, and 5 of them got in the end zone again. Claypool’s chances at another strong game are very good, and his DraftKings price of $5,200 hasn’t caught up to what he did a week ago. He’s a solid cash game option there as well.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Dak Prescott going down for the year is a decidedly bad thing for the Cowboys’ passing attack, but it isn’t a death knell. During his best stretch in Cincy from 2013-2016, the Bengals offense carried 2 top-36 fantasy receivers each season, and this Dallas group of receivers probably has more talent than Dalton ever had in Cincy. The matchup in this game is a favorable one. The Cardinals rank 26th in pass-defense DVOA, and Patrick Peterson is likely to be covering Amari Cooper for much of the game. That should open things up for Lamb and Michael Gallup. My biggest fear with this offense is that they go back to playing more of a ball-control game and try to slow things down with Dak out, but I don’t expect that to happen. Mike McCarthy prefers an up-tempo offense, and I think Dalton is a capable enough QB for them to continue to keep things moving. Lamb has seen at least 6 targets and scored double-digit PPR points in every single game this year. He’s a quality WR2/3 option this week.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Jefferson had a less than ideal fantasy performance in week 5 if you started him, but I’d expect him to bounce back in week 6. This game has real shootout potential with Julio Jones healthy. The Vikings rank 27th in scoring defense and the Falcons rank 30th, and this game has a 53-point over/under number. I wouldn’t expect Minnesota’s game plan to change much with Dalvin Cook out (Alexander Mattison isn’t much of a drop off behind him), but Atlanta has given up at least 299 passing yards each and every week and ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. Jefferson is bound to see a healthy share of that receiving load. Something in the range of 5 for 75 with a possible score sounds about right for the rookie this week. Don’t let last week scare you away from firing him up in your lineups.
Borderline Rookies:
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The Lions backfield deployment has been the source of a lot of frustration for fantasy players this year. Each of Swift, Adrian Peterson, and Kerryon Johnson have had at least one-week ranking 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in snap count out of that trio. There’s no clear-cut pecking order. It feels like the goal is to base the RB usage on the matchup, much like the Patriots did for years, and it’s going to continue to frustrate fantasy players all year. For what it’s worth, this feels like a Swift week. The Jaguars have allowed the 10th-most RB catches per game despite not playing many true receiving backs. They managed to cough up 6 catches each to Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon. Swift has 13 catches on the year while Johnson and Peterson have combined for just 6. Swift is in play this week as a boom-or-bust RB3/flex option.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Dobbins has had flashes of brilliance in the first five weeks of the season, but the Ravens have been committed to the committee approach. Dobbins has averaged just 5 touches per game but has turned those into 40 yards per game. Ultimately if you play Dobbins you’re hoping he gets in the end zone. I list him as a borderline option this week because of how messy the running back situation is around the league, but I would lean against starting him if you can avoid it. There are some reasons for optimism for Dobbins. He’s made several big plays, and Philly has given up their fair share of them. Only Washington has given up more 40+ yard runs than the Eagles, and only the Bengals & Texans have given up more 20+ yard runs than Philly.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 6: @NE): I wrote about Jeudy a week ago in this same matchup before the game ended up being pushed to week 6. The only real difference this week is that Denver gets back their starting QB Drew Lock. It would have been Brett Rypien under center had they played in week 5. The on-paper matchup for Jeudy isn’t great, but he should see enough volume to get him through to a productive day. The Broncos will be without Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, and Melvin Gordon. Josh Jackson is a tough matchup in the slot where Jeudy plays 70% of his snaps, but the Pats have given up lines of 7-67-1 to Tyler Lockett and 6-84-1 to Hunter Renfrow this season. Jeudy should make for a nice WR3 in a week where there should be plenty of targets for him. The Broncos are a 9.5-point underdog and should be throwing a lot.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Shenault has been the most consistent part of the Jaguars’ receiving group this season, leading the team in both catches and yards through 5 games. He’s a reasonable flex option this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed the 9th-most WR points per game, but there are some red flags to be aware of. The Jaguars have stopped short of giving him a full-time role, playing him fewer than 70% of the offensive snaps each week, and his two highest snap share weeks came in games where DJ Chark was injured. Chark is expected to play this week. Shenault also has an average target depth of just 7.9 yards for the season, doing a lot of his damage after the catch, but the Lions have allowed the 4th-fewest yards after catch per game. Viska has a reasonable shot at a top-30 performance this week, but expecting a breakout game is probably asking for too much unless Chark ends up being sidelined.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Higgins doesn’t get a great matchup Sunday, but with a limited slate this week he’s been productive enough to warrant consideration for a flex spot. Higgins has seen at least 6 targets in 4 straight games and has led the Bengals in WR snaps in 2 of the last 3 weeks. Despite ranking 1st in pass defense DVOA, the Colts have allowed 2 receivers in each of the last 2 weeks to reach 10 PPR points without including touchdowns. There is upside for a useful week from Higgins, and you could do worse than him this week if you’re searching for a flex option or WR3.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Keep a close eye on updates for this game. It’s still a little up in the air which 49er WR will be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. It’s either going to be Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, but it’s hard to say for sure which one it will be. For the year, Ramsey is allowing just 4.7 yards per target on balls thrown in his direction. The Rams have allowed the fewest WR points per game, but have given up lines of 4-81 to Gabriel Davis, 6-100 to Cole Beasley, and 6-64 to DeSean Jackson. If Aiyuk avoids Ramsey, he could produce a useful week, but if we don’t know who Ramsey will match up with, I’d probably steer clear.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Burrow is coming off of his worst game of the season against a stingy Ravens defense, and this week he faces off with an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the fewest QB points per game so far. They’ve been especially tough over the past 4 weeks, giving up about 10.5 points per game to opposing signal callers. They’ve allowed an average of just 194 yards per game and logged 9 interceptions and coughed up just 4 touchdowns in that span. The Bengals are 7.5-point underdogs in this game, so volume shouldn’t be a problem for Burrow. It would be tough for Joe to put up fewer points than he did a week ago, but this is unlikely to be a ceiling week like we saw for him against the Browns and Eagles. With four teams off this week, you might not have better options in a 2-QB league, but I wouldn’t start Burrow in any 1-QB formats and would view him as outside of the top-20 QB options for the week.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 6: @SF): Akers returned from his rib injury last week, but he’s clearly playing behind Darrell Henderson at this point. Cam did put up 61 yards on 9 carries last Sunday, but the Rams were ahead by at least 13 points for every one of those carries, and 46 of the yards came on one 4th quarter carry when the game was already decided. The 49ers are a much tougher run defense than Washington, allowing the 2nd-fewest RB points per game and ranking 6th in run defense DVOA. The Rams are the kind of team that may change up their RB usage suddenly, but I’d steer clear of Akers this week unless you think the Rams will blow out the 49ers like the Dolphins did a week ago.
RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 6: @Mia.): The release of Le’Veon Bell should be good news for Perine, but while Bell was out with injury Perine was playing behind both Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage, both of whom Adam Gase seems to love. There has been some noise this week that Perine will get a chance to carve out a receiving role, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Perine has been targeted just twice so far this season. He may be worth a stash in really deep leagues and in dynasty formats, but there’s no way to justify playing him this week.
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Vaughn looked to have a golden opportunity going into last week with LeSean McCoy out and Leonard Fournette only available in case of emergency, but he failed to take advantage. Vaughn left the game early with a chest injury, but not before losing a fumble. Ronald Jones played great in a workhorse role, and Fournette should be much more involved this week, so Vaughn goes back to being an afterthought for now. Keep him sidelined this week.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 6: @TB): There is nothing to take away from the news that Tyler Ervin is out as far as Dillon is concerned. Ervin has been playing a healthy number of snaps each week (he’s been on the field for about a third of the Packers offensive plays), but he’s a shifty speed back who is used occasionally on sweeps and outside running plays. The bruising Dillon isn’t a natural fit to fill that role. There is a chance Dillon sees a bit more short-yardage work if Aaron Jones picks up some of Ervin’s role, but more than 5 touches for the rookie would be a surprise.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. KC): Davis has been impressive over the past few weeks, topping 50 yards or finding the end zone in each of the last 4 games. He even played 100% of the offensive snaps in week 5, but I’d expect him to go back to a secondary role this week. John Brown and Cole Beasley should both be good to go this week. In the 3 games where Brown has played more than 50% of the snaps, Davis has a total of 4 catches on 4 targets. He was just fortunate enough to score TDs on 2 of them. The Chiefs are one of the toughest matchups for opposing WRs, allowing the 6th-fewest points per game to the position. Davis is at best a TD dart throw this week.
WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 6: vs Bal.): Hightower is fast becoming the Eagles’ 2020 version of JJ Arcega-Whiteside…a rookie receiver who plays a ton of snaps each week but does absolutely nothing with them. Hightower has led the Eagles in WR snaps for three consecutive weeks but has just 6 catches for 59 yards in those games to show for it. Travis Fulgham’s emergence and Greg Ward’s consistency in the slot have pretty much rendered Hightower a decoy most snaps. The Ravens rank 7th in pass-defense DVOA and have allowed the 7th-fewest WR points per game for the year. Hightower really isn’t a fantasy option at this point.
WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS (Wk. 6: @NYG): Gandy-Golden has seen his playing time increase in recent weeks, playing a season-high 43% of the offensive snaps in week 5, but that hasn’t translated into targets. He’s totaled just 1 catch for 3 yards on 3 targets all season. There isn’t any reason to view his increase in snaps as a reason to stash him.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Johnson came out of the gates fast in week 4 against the Bears, piling up 4 catches for 61 yards by early in the 2nd quarter, but he didn’t record another catch the rest of the game. The Bucs should get Chris Godwin and Justin Watson back this week, and Johnson should return to the bench. He’s not worth considering this week.
Rookies on Byes: QB Justin Herbert, LAC, RB Josh Kelley, LAC, RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA, WR Henry Ruggs, LV, WR Bryan Edwards, LV, WR Freddie Swain, SEA
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. KC): Moss is practicing in full this week and appears to be on track to play for the first time since week 2. I’d be hesitant to go right back to him in anything but the deepest season-long leagues, but he’s a sneaky cheap DFS option. Moss was dominating red zone snaps in this backfield before getting hurt. In his absence, Devin Singletary has found the end zone just once on the ground and was stuffed at the 1-yard line on back-to-back plays against the Rams. If Moss goes right back into that red zone role, he has a decent chance to find the end zone in a game where the Bills have an implied total of 26.5 points. The way to attack the Chiefs is on the ground. Kansas City ranks 28th in run defense DVOA and 2nd in pass defense DVOA. In their one loss to the Raiders, the Chiefs were dominated in the trenches. Buffalo should try to follow that blueprint. Moss could give you 50+ yards and a score for the minimum price in DraftKings.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 6: @Car.): Mooney continues to operate as the Bears’ number 2 wide receiver. The switch to Nick Foles at QB hasn’t always been pretty, but it has still been an upgrade on Mitch Trubisky – especially for Allen Robinson, who has been targeted at least 10 times in each of the last 3 games. Robinson has a 28.8% target share from Foles. That hasn’t stopped Mooney from seeing 14 targets himself in Foles’ two starts. In the last two weeks, the Bears have faced the Colts and Bucs, who rank 1st and 4th in pass defense DVOA respectively. This week they face the Panthers who rank 14th. I expect the Panthers to pay extra attention to A-Rob due to the heavy workload he’s been seeing, and that could open things up for Mooney. I like his chances at 60+ receiving yards in this one, and he costs the minimum on DraftKings.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Baltimore’s #2 receiver Miles Boykin popped up on the team’s injury report on Friday with a thigh injury. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday’s game with Philly. If he misses this game, it could mean more opportunities for Duvernay. The rookie has flashed his wheels two weeks in a row with a kick return touchdown against Kansas City and a 42-yard run on a reverse last week against the Bengals. Marquise Brown is likely to be lined up against Darius Slay for a lot of this game, which could result in more targets for Mark Andrews and the other receivers. If Boykin misses this game, Duvernay becomes an interesting cheap DFS play for a limited slate and has some extra appeal in leagues that give bonus points for return yards.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Mims was designated to return from injured reserve this week, and those of you in deeper leagues should look into beating the crowd to scoop him off the waiver wire. The Jets have been abysmal this year, but in 5 weeks they’ve gotten 6 top-30 WR performances this season – 3 from Jamison Crowder, 2 from Braxton Berrios, and one from Jeff Smith. Most of those have come from the slot, but Mims could provide a true outside threat to balance out that passing game. There isn’t much competition to climb ahead of on the depth chart.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check on gameday for any inactives to make sure they aren’t in your lineups. There are a number of game-time decisions this week to keep an eye on. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
