Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully your fantasy team came out of week 2 without a bunch of red letters next to players’ names. Last weekend was a bloodbath across the NFL as 4 players who may have been 1st round picks in your fantasy draft left the week with injuries (CMC, Saquon, Davante Adams & Julio Jones), along with a host of others. If your fantasy team didn’t suffer major injuries, you came out of the week in pretty good shape. Some of these injuries are going to open the door for rookies to step into bigger roles in the immediate future, and I’m here to help you sort through what to do with your rookies in week 3. Let’s dive in…
Rookies to Start:
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): This one is a no-brainer. Taylor put the Colts’ offense on his back last Sunday against Minnesota, and he’s likely to do the same this week with Indy favored by double-digits. The Jets are much tougher against the run than they are against the pass, but volume alone should get Taylor where he needs to be. The Jets have allowed the 8th-most RB points per game this season. He’s a locked in RB1 this week with top-5 potential. He’ll likely be a chalk play for DFS cash games even at his $7,000 DraftKings price tag.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 3: @Bal.): This is not an ideal matchup for CEH. I mention him as a guy to start because you know the volume will be there. You likely drafted him in the first round, and there really aren’t any weeks to sit your first-round pick if he’s healthy. The Ravens allowed the 6th-fewest RB points per game a season ago, and have allowed THE fewest so far in 2020. They also ranked 4th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2019 (3rd so far in 2020). Edwards-Helaire is more of a contrarian DFS play this week, but you have to run him out there in season-long leagues. Just know to temper your expectations a little bit.
RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Week 3 has a chance to be Kelley’s best week all year. There is no better matchup for a running back than the Carolina Panthers, and everything shapes up for Kelley to see at least 15 carries. The Panthers’ run defense is bad by any metric. They ranked dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2019 and rank 29th so far in 2020. They also allowed the most RB fantasy points last year, and have allowed the most so far in 2020, and they’ve been surrendering rushing touchdowns at a ridiculous rate. Carolina has allowed 18 rushing touchdowns in their last 7 games dating back to last season, including 3 in each of the first two games this year. Kelley and Ekeler split the lead back role pretty evenly in week 2, and I didn’t see anything from Kelley that makes me think that will change this week. The rookie has a very solid floor in this one and has top-12 upside if he’s able to get in the end zone. He should probably be in your lineup if you have him.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): Everything is setting up for a breakout for Robinson on the national stage on Thursday night. The rookie has looked great through two weeks in average matchups. He’s the RB26 so far on the season in PPR scoring, and he’s looked even better than that ranking would suggest. He’ll face off with one of the worst run defenses in the league in week 3. The Dolphins have ranked in the bottom-4 in the league in run defense DVOA both last season and so far in 2020 and have given up 5.1 yards per carry on the ground so far this season. I expect Robinson to have a bit of a coming-out party on Thursday night and think a top-15 finish for the week is very possible.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Lamb has wasted no time showing why the Cowboys were thrilled when he fell to them in the first round of the NFL draft. He’s clearly an integral part of the offense with 15 targets in the first two weeks. The Seahawks are 2-0, but they have a burnable secondary and have given up an insane 831 passing yards through two weeks. This is a spot to get all of the Cowboys’ pass-catchers into your lineup, especially after head coach Mike McCarthy told the media he has no intention to try and milk the clock to keep the ball away from Russell Wilson. This should be the most entertaining game of the week, and CeeDee Lamb should be a solid WR2 in it.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): Along with James Robinson, Viska may also be in line for a big night. DJ Chark has been ruled out, leaving Shenault and Keelan Cole as the top 2 receivers. You may have 3 better options than Shenault on your team and not be able to find a place in your lineup for him, but he’s going to be a huge part of the game plan. The Jaguars will move him around enough to keep him away from Xavien Howard, and with Bryon Jones out that will put him in some mismatches in his favor. Shenault is an upside WR3 on Thursday night against a Miami secondary that let Josh Allen throw for 411 yards last week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 3: @Phi.): Burrow had a very nice fantasy day last Thursday night against the Browns, but it could’ve been even better if he hadn’t been so hell-bent on forcing the ball to AJ Green all night. The Eagles’ secondary hasn’t been great so far this year ranking 27th in pass defense DVOA, but the best member of that secondary, Darius Slay, should be shadowing Green. If Burrow can avoid tunnel vision with Green again, there is a chance at a respectable day. I wouldn’t be considering Burrow in 1-QB leagues and his outlook this week isn’t as rosy as his matchup with the Browns was, but he should be a low-end QB2 option with a very solid floor.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Gibson seems to have wrestled the starting job away from Peyton Barber in Washington, and with so many running backs injured right now you may be forced to play him. Just be aware this isn’t a great matchup and he’ll still cede some work to Barber and JD McKissic. The Washington offense as a whole isn’t a high-scoring unit and has an implied total of just 18.5 points this week. The Browns did give up two short yardage scores to JK Dobbins in week one, but have still allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game and rank 4th in run defense DVOA. Gibson’s volume makes him an enticing flex option, but he’s far from an automatic start and not someone I would be using in DFS lineups this week.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 3: @Ari.): What a difference a week makes for the Lions’ backfield usage. In week one with the Lions leading most of the day, Adrian Peterson touched the ball 17 times while Swift handled just 6 touches. In week 2 with the team trailing Green Bay for most of the game, Swift out-touched Peterson 10-to-7. The key for Swift is that he’s been heavily involved in the passing game with 8 receptions on 10 targets through 2 weeks. The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, so the usage should slant in Swift’s direction again, and Arizona has allowed scores each of the last two weeks to backs with similar skill-sets to Swift (Jerick McKinnon & Antonio Gibson). Swift is in play as a PPR flex option in a game where Detroit has an implied total of 24.5.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 3: vs. TB): The injury to Courtland Sutton moves Jeudy up to the top of the Broncos’ WR depth chart, and thanks to how much time he spends in the slot he’ll be able to avoid Tampa’s top CB Carlton Davis for most of this game. Jeudy lines up in the slot on about two-thirds of his snaps. No team allowed more points to opposing wide receivers than Tampa a year ago, and they allowed DJ Moore and Robby Anderson to each top 100 yards last week. Jeudy should be in line to see 7+ targets this week and is very much in the WR3 conversation in all formats.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Pittman stands to be the biggest beneficiary of Parris Campbell’s trip to the IR. His snap share rose from 53% in week 1 up to 92% in week 2 with Campbell going down on his first touch of the game. Pittman should continue to be a full-time player at least until Campbell returns. This game figures to be a blowout where Indy will lean on Jonathan Taylor and the run game, but Pittman was targeted 6 times in a game that went that way last week. The Colts have an implied total of 27 points, and dating back to the start of last season, 66% of the offensive TDs the Jets have allowed have been through the air. At 6’4”, Pittman figures to be a factor in the red zone. If he gets 6+ targets in this one, he’ll have a great chance at finishing among the top-40 WRs and should outproduce his $4,000 price tag in DraftKings.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): I think it’s very likely that Herbert has a better real game than fantasy game this week. As I laid out with Josh Kelley above, Carolina has been absolutely shredded on the ground since the start of last season, especially in the red zone. I’d expect a lot of Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley in this game. The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this one and Christian McCaffrey, the engine of the Panthers’ offense, is sidelined. It feels like the most likely outcome is that the Chargers get out in front and stay there. I’d probably view Herbert as no more than a low-end QB2 this week due to limited passing volume.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): In a typical week with so many top running backs out, I’d be telling you to consider a guy like Moss as a flex option. He’s seeing plenty of red zone usage on a surprisingly potent Bills offense that has an implied total of 25 points this week. Unfortunately, he’s also dealing with a toe injury that has him not practicing yet as of Thursday. I think even if Moss plays he’ll be less effective than usual. The Rams are not a run defense to be afraid of, but I’d lean against starting Moss this week even if he is able to suit up. He’ll probably need to find the end zone to return any value.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 3: vs. KC): I fell for the trap on Dobbins a little bit after his week 1 breakout game. I already believed in his talent coming into the season, but week 1 made me believe he’ll get enough usage to be start-able in fantasy. Week 2 threw a bit of a wet blanket on that. The snap share wasn’t drastically different from week 1 to 2, but the touches were. Dobbins handled 7 carries in week 1 including 2 carries from the 2-yard line that he cashed in for scores, but in week 2 he touched the ball just 3 times. He managed to avoid a complete dud of a week by breaking off a 44-yard run to set up kneel downs at the end of the game. Mark Ingram & Gus Edwards combined for 4 red zone carries to Dobbins’ zero in week 2. The Ravens have one of the highest implied totals of the week at 28.5, but if you play Dobbins you’re counting on him getting in the end zone. I’d avoid starting him this week unless you’re in a tough spot due to injuries. He could be a reasonable fall-back flex option if you’re waiting on a player like Davante Adams for Sunday night or Sammy Watkins Monday, but Tre’Quan Smith and Mecole Hardman are guys that are probably available in your leagues that I would prefer in those situations.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Akers seems like to a long-shot to play this week, and I’d expect that if he does suit up he’ll be mainly there as insurance in case something happens to Darrell Henderson. I’d expect Henderson to handle the bulk of the work. The Bills aren’t an impenetrable run defense, but they aren’t one to target either, allowing the 12th fewest RB points per game so far this year (14th-fewest last year).
WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 3: @NE): Ruggs and Edwards failed to do much last Monday in a game where the Raiders offense dominated possession, and this week they’ll face a Patriots’ secondary that is among the best in the league. Don’t be fooled by what the Seahawks did to them last week. Derek Carr continued to effectively lead his ‘death by a thousand paper cuts’ offense, dinking-and-dunking to Darren Waller and his running backs, and handing the ball to Josh Jacobs. The Patriots biggest personnel losses due to COVID opt-outs and players changing teams last offseason were in the defensive front 7. That’s the part of the defense that I’d expect the Raiders to attack. If Josh Jacobs sits, things get a little more interesting (he was held out of practice Thursday), but neither Ruggs nor Edwards would be more than a desperation flex play. I’d prefer Ruggs to Edwards this week if I had to choose one.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 3: vs. Ten.): Jefferson has been on the field quite a bit in the first two weeks of the season, but the Vikings’ passing game has been a low-volume attack that runs through Adam Thielen. A third of all of Minnesota’s targets have gone to Thielen while Jefferson has been targeted just 6 times at an average depth of 8.8 yards downfield. Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak talked about wanting to do a better job of getting the ball in his hands this week, but at that same presser said they need to run the football more. The Vikings already rank 31st in the league in pass attempts DESPITE playing from behind on 79 of their 96 offensive snaps so far this year…and Kubiak wants to run more. The matchup isn’t terrible for Jefferson this week on paper. On any snaps in the slot he should be lining up against 7th-round rookie corner Chris Jackson (PFF grade of just 27.2 through two weeks), but the Minnesota passing game is fundamentally broken right now. I wouldn’t look at Jefferson as anything other than a low-priced DFS dart throw in a limited slate tournament.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): Claypool’s final stat line in week 2 was impressive, finishing with 17.8 PPR points, but almost all of it came on one long TD catch. Outside of an 84-yard score, he had just 2 catches for 4 yards and played a total of just 24 snaps. It’s clear the Steelers are trying to get him involved and are drawing up a couple of shot plays for him each week, but his limited playing time makes him a risky weekly option. Houston has been a bottom-10 pass defense in terms of DVOA since the start of last season and gave up 12 pass plays of 40+ yards in 2019 (T-7th most in the league) but they haven’t given one up yet in 2020. Claypool is best left to DFS tournaments this week. The weekly floor is going to be below 5 PPR points until he moves up in the depth chart.
WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Jefferson split the Rams’ WR3 snaps almost evenly with Josh Reynolds in week 1, but in week 2 he was out-snapped 42-to-26. That didn’t stop him from outproducing Reynolds with a 4-45 line on 5 targets (Reynolds went 2-33 on 2). Some of that target volume was undoubtedly the result of Robert Woods facing off with Darius Slay (Woods was targeted just 5 times), and although Woods gets another tough matchup this week in Tre’Davious White, it’ll be tough to rely on Jefferson unless he fully takes over the WR3 role. Jefferson doesn’t have a picnic of a matchup himself facing off with Levi Wallace, who was Pro Football Focus’s highest graded rookie cornerback a year ago. Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee are the Rams’ pass-catchers to target this week.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 3: @NYG): Aiyuk’s debut was mostly inauspicious. He played 72% of the team’s snaps but was targeted just 3 times and finished with 2 catches for 21 yards. The offense will look a bit different this week with Nick Mullens under center and the combo of Jerick McKinnon and Jeffrey Wilson Jr. splitting the backfield duties. George Kittle could be out again as well. I’d look for the Niners to have a conservative game plan, but it’s hard to know exactly what that will look like. I’d probably avoid any 49ers for your lineups this week aside from Kittle (if he plays), Jordan Reed (if Kittle doesn’t play), and the two running backs I mentioned. You can’t trust Aiyuk to have a useful fantasy day based on what we saw last week.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): Davis is playing more snaps than you would expect for a number 4 wide receiver, but it isn’t translating to targets yet. Josh Allen has thrown the ball 81 times for 729 yards and 6 scores through two weeks, but Davis has seen just 3 of those targets and turned them into 3-22-1. The matchup this week should involve Jalen Ramsey following Stefon Diggs all over the field, so it could result in a little bit more volume for everyone else, but it would take a pretty sizable bump in volume to make Davis anything more than a TD dart throw. He remains a guy worth stashing in dynasty leagues though.
WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): With the news that Jalen Reagor has a torn ligament in his thumb Wednesday, Hightower is once again worth mentioning this week. He played 40% of the snaps in week 1 with everyone healthy, but that was with both Reagor and DeSean Jackson being limited to little more than half of the offensive snaps each. Week 2 saw Jackson and Reagor both function as closer to full-time players and the rest of the receiver group fighting for scraps. With Reagor sidelined, I expect to still see a lot of Jackson, and aside from him a mix of JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Greg Ward & Hightower. With the Bengals likely to be without Geno Atkins & Mike Daniels at DT, look for Philly to play a lot of 2-TE sets and run the ball a ton. They’ll be eager to take a bit of the load off of Carson Wentz given how he’s played the first two weeks. For Hightower to return value this week, he’ll probably have to catch a deep ball or two, but his average target depth in week 1 was just 8 yards. I’d avoid him even as a bargain basement DFS play.
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Kenny Golladay practiced in full on Wednesday and should be good to go for this weekend’s tilt with the Cardinals. Cephus has been on the field more than 70% of the Lions’ snaps with Golladay out the first two weeks, but that number is going to drop drastically this week assuming Kenny G returns. Cephus has lined up in the slot on just 9 snaps. Danny Amendola will continue to serve as the team’s slot receiver with Golladay and Marvin Jones on the outside. Quintez will likely only see a handful of snaps and should be left out of any fantasy lineups this week.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): Bryant was on the field for more than 50% of the Browns’ offensive snaps last week and gets to face a Washington team that has allowed the 8th-most tight end points per game so far, but he just isn’t seeing the ball come his way enough to be useful. He’ll do just enough to be annoying to people starting Austin Hooper. The Browns’ offense is too run-heavy right now to be targeting either tight end for fantasy.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 3: @Atl.): I’m sure you already know better on this one, but I wanted to make sure you know to not get cute just because the Falcons couldn’t defend Dalton Schultz last Sunday. Kmet is still the Bears #3 tight end, and he should be nowhere near your fantasy lineups.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, & Cheap DFS Options:
RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 3: @NYG): Don’t throw Hasty into your lineups for week 3, but he’s an interesting guy to possibly scoop up in dynasty leagues with the injuries to Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman. Hasty is likely to be promoted from the practice squad for this game, and I’d expect him to see at least a few touches. If he manages to impress with those touches he could ascend the depth chart quickly and possibly have a useful week or two in this very running back-friendly offense. He’s a shifty back that can be more dynamic than Jeff Wilson. He’s a player to monitor in deep dynasty leagues if he gets the call-up.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 3: @Phi.): Higgins saw a huge jump in playing time in week 2 with Auden Tate a surprising healthy scratch. I’d expect that to be the case again this week, and he’ll get the most favorable matchup of the receivers. Tyler Boyd will get Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot, and AJ Green is likely to face off with Darius Slay. Higgins meanwhile will tangle with Avante Maddox. Higgins posted 3-35 on 6 targets last week, and so long as Burrow doesn’t have tunnel vision for AJ Green again, I expect the rookie to exceed that easily. He costs just $3,900 on DraftKings.
WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 3: vs. TB): With the news that Courtland Sutton is out for the season, Hamler suddenly finds himself to be a much bigger part of Denver’s plans. He was an explosive playmaker in college, and new QB Jeff Driskel has shown flashes of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s YOLO style back when he was in Detroit. This week isn’t an ideal matchup for Hamler since he will likely see a lot of ascending star CB Carlton Davis (Jerry Jeudy has worked mostly from the slot and is likely to avoid Davis), but Driskel targeted Hamler 7 times last week after coming on in relief of Lock. Driskel averaged 8.2 intended yards per attempt last year, which would’ve put him in the top half of all QBs if he played enough to qualify, and he was at 12.4 intended yards per attempt on Sunday. Hamler is a bit of a shoot the moon option this week as a minimum-priced WR on DraftKings. He also shouldn’t be on your league’s waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 3: @Atl.): Mooney’s impressive week 1 performance did in fact lead to more playing time in week 2. The Bears were comfortable enough with Mooney that they made Ted Ginn a healthy scratch for week 2 and let Mooney play 60% of the offensive snaps. Atlanta is an inviting matchup for receivers. Both Atlanta games this season have turned into shootouts with over 700 yards of combined passing offense in each. I don’t know that Chicago has the firepower to make that 3 in a row, but I like Mooney’s chances at a surprisingly solid week. I’d expect him to have a season-high in catches and yards, and he’s a sneaky flex option for deep leagues and costs the minimum in DraftKings.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies. It’ll be especially important this week to keep an eye on the injury report. There are a lot of statuses still up in the air as of this writing. Make sure you’re vigilant enough that you don’t start any inactive players, and make sure that whoever you put in your flex spot is the player in your lineup who plays the latest game of the week at his position. You don’t want to stuck without a fallback if a player is a last minute scratch like Tyrod Tylor or James White (condolences to him and his family this week). Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
