Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most folks, the fantasy season ended last week, but I know there are leagues out there that still hold their title games in week 17. Week 17 is a tough one to navigate for fantasy lineups. There are typically only a handful teams with anything to gain by winning. The keys to success are to identify those teams and identify the stud players who play for teams that have nothing to gain. If you can avoid those landmines you’ll have a much better shot of winning. I count 12 teams that potentially could improve their playoff position, and only half of those don’t need any help from other teams to do so. I’ll give you a quick rundown of which rookies have something to play for in case you have a championship this week, but most of the advice this week will have a decidedly DFS slant. Let’s dive in…
Rookies to Start:
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 17: @NYG): The Eagles are expecting Jordan Howard to return this week, but Sanders is likely to continue as the lead back. As the Eagles’ pass catching corps has become the walking wounded, Sanders has seen his receiving usage increase. In the past 4 weeks, he’s had at least 4 catches and 5 targets in each game, and he’s found the end zone through the air in 2 of them. Even if Howard manages to siphon off a decent chunk of Sanders’ rushing attempts, the passing game usage will keep Miles as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside. The Giants surprisingly rank 8th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, and Sanders is no worse than 3rd in the Eagles’ current pass game pecking order. You’re banking on the upside if you use him in DFS lineups (I like him better for cash games than tournaments), but he should be fired up in season-long leagues.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 17: @Hou.): Brown’s lack of usage last week was a little alarming, but he still managed to put up 15.3 PPR points despite just one catch and one carry. He absolutely torched the Texans the last time he faced them (8-114-1 on 13 targets), and this week the Texans might not have anything to gain by winning. The Titans have everything to gain. A victory clinches them a spot in the playoffs. Brown should be heavily involved and can’t be left on your bench in season long leagues. The Texans rank 25th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t be as keen to pay the $7,000 DraftKings price tag, but he should be a fine WR2 this week.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. SF): Metcalf managed to post a goose egg on just 1 target last week despite playing 98% of the offensive snaps in a game where Seattle threw 31 times. Don’t expect a repeat this week. Prior to week 16, DK had managed to post 11+ PPR points in 6 of the previous 7 games, and I like his odds to get back on track this week. Since the start of week 9, the 49ers have allowed 22.4 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs (only the Dolphins and Cardinals have allowed more than that per game on the year), and they’ve given up 15+ points in half PPR scoring to 4 wide receivers in the past 5 weeks (they allowed just 3 to reach 15 before that). Their elite defense has shown cracks, and I think Metcalf exploits them this weekend. He posted 6 catches for 70 yards on 10 targets in the first meeting with San Francisco, and he should be a solid WR3 in the rematch. Metcalf is a sneaky option in DFS showdown slates for the Sunday night game.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): This will be a must win game for the Eagles, but their pass defense has been an issue for much of the year. Philly has coughed up multiple passing scores in 3 of their last 4 games, and Jones flourished in his return to the lineup last Sunday as the overall QB1 for the week. Jones has thrown for multiple TDs in 3 of his last 4 starts, and 4+ in three of his last 6. Jones has been a solid starting option when his weapons are healthy and he has a real chance to be a QB1 again this week, although repeating as the QB1 seems highly unlikely.
QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Raiders still have a shot at the playoffs with a win and a lot of help this weekend, but the Broncos have some positive momentum of their own and aren’t likely to roll over for Oakland. The Raiders have been abysmal defending the pass, allowing the 4th-most QB points per game and allowing the 2nd-highest passer rating to opposing QBs. Lock has played well through 4 starts outside of one poor performance against the Chiefs, and he is in a great spot for a strong game to close his rookie year. Lamar Jackson won’t play this week, and several other fantasy QBs like Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Kirk Cousins will be unplayable due to the chance they won’t play for long. Lock will be a high-end QB2 option with the upside for more and is reasonably priced on DraftKings at $5,800.
RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Leonard Fournette has been downgraded to doubtful for this week, and Armstead has been his handcuff all year. The Colts rank 21st in run defense DVOA and Jacksonville is one of the few teams that doesn’t employ a committee. It’s a rare occurrence that you can get a locked-in starting running back for $4,400 on DraftKings. Armstead has shown an ability to catch the ball, so he won’t be limited to just rushing output. The Jaguars have been bad as a team of late, but Armstead has plenty of appeal in DFS lineups at that price tag.
RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): With the Ravens locked into the AFC’s top seed, they have nothing to gain with a win in week 17. Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram will be sitting out entirely, and I would expect several other starters to not play the full game. The Steelers will be without James Conner again, so Snell will be thrust back into the early down grinder role once more. Baltimore has been stingy against the pass but ranks a middling 17th in run defense DVOA. Snell’s lack of pass catching prowess hurts his fantasy upside, but he should be viewed as a reasonable RB3/flex play this week. He also costs just $4,500 on DraftKings.
WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Slayton was targeted just 3 times in week 15 against the Dolphins, then was sidelined by injury last week before recording his first catch in a game where Daniel Jones threw 5 touchdown passes. Slayton is on track to return this week and the Giants don’t really have reason to hold him back as they try to play spoiler to the Eagles. Philly has allowed the 6th-most WR points per game, and Slayton may be the squeaky wheel that gets the grease this week. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure that he plays and that he won’t be limited by the knee injury, but Slayton remains in play as a WR3 option this week. His price tag of $4,900 on DraftKings is really tempting in both cash games and DFS tournaments.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 17: @Sea.): The 49ers will be pulling out all of the stops to try and win this game. A victory means a week off, and a loss means a trip to Dallas or Philadelphia next weekend. The Seahawks are better attacked on the ground than through the air, ranking 26th in run defense DVOA and 14th in pass defense DVOA. Samuel has been productive with 6 games of 12 or more PPR points in his last 7, but his volume has been inconsistent. He’s averaged just 4.6 targets per game in the last 5 weeks. He’s managed to be productive with sporadic rushing attempts (7-89-1 in the past 4 weeks), but he’ll have to continue making good on limited opportunities to have a big day this week. He’s in play as a borderline WR3 option.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Johnson has managed to produce despite the game of musical quarterbacks being played between Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, He’s put up at least 60 yards and been targeted 7+ times in each of the last 3 games, and the Ravens are likely to play their starters less than a full complement of snaps. Even JuJu’s return hasn’t slowed Johnson down. He’ll have Hodges throwing him the ball this week, but that shouldn’t keep him from posting a 4-60 type of line in this one, and possibly more.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Raiders allow the 8th-most TE points per game. Fant’s snap count has dropped quite a bit with Jeff Heuerman back at full strength, but Fant has been the one getting the more useful fantasy targets. He’s still risky for regular lineups, but he’s an interesting in DFS lineups at just $3,600 on DraftKings and in a plus matchup.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 17: @LAR): It’s looking more and more likely that Murray is going to be sidelined this week with a hamstring injury and it will be Brett Hundley getting the nod instead. Even if Murray plays, the first meeting with the Rams was one of his worst games of the season and they rank 9th in pass defense DVOA. Only a late rushing TD got him to double-digit fantasy points in that first meeting. Hundley wouldn’t be a great option this week either.
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Minshew has had a number of plus matchups since getting back under center, but he’s failed to produce meaningful fantasy games. In the last 4 weeks he’s averaged 173 yards passing and 15.5 rushing yards per game and totaled just 5 touchdowns. The Jags are basically phoning it in to close out the year, and you can’t bank on them getting out of that funk in the season’s final week. This game is likely to feature a lot of Ryquell Armstead and Marlon Mack.
QB Will Grier, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. NO): Grier’s first NFL start was an unmitigated disaster against a below average pass defense. The offense managed to score just 6 points as Grier threw 3 interceptions and took 5 sacks. More than 50% of his passing yards went to Christian McCaffrey and he’s not going to have DJ Moore on the field this week. The Saints rank 13th in pass defense DVOA. It’s all shaping up to be another rough week for Grier.
QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Don’t get cute with Hodges. In his last 2 appearances he’s thrown 1 touchdown against 6 interceptions. The Ravens’ secondary might not be playing at full strength, but that’s not a reason to get crazy and consider Hodges in any format.
QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 17: vs. GB): It’s likely you weren’t considering Blough in any format, and that is the correct approach. Blough has thrown just 2 touchdowns in the last 3 and a half games, and Green Bay ranks 11th in pass defense DVOA. There is no reason to consider Blough in week 17. It may wind up as his final career start.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): We’ve seen Monty come up small in big opportunities, and this week he faces a tough matchup. The Vikings rank 5th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10th-fewest RB points per game. Montgomery has just been too consistently mediocre from a fantasy perspective to use him this week unless you’re desperate. Monty’s best hope is that Minnesota goes to their backup defense early on and he gets in the end zone. I’m not willing to count on that even at a price tag of just $5,100 on DraftKings.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): The Bills have absolutely nothing to gain from winning this weekend. They’re locked into the 5th seed in the AFC playoffs. They have no incentive to put a critical player like Singletary in harm’s way. If he does get the start, I would be stunned if he plays into the second half. Josh Allen is also likely to have a short day if he plays at all. TJ Yeldon is the running back I’d expect to have the best fantasy day for Buffalo. His ability as a pass catcher gives him the edge over Frank Gore, especially with the Jets being stout against the run. New York ranks second in run defense DVOA.
RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 17: @NE): The Patriots actually care about winning this game, and they’ve allowed the fewest RB PPR points per game. Laird and Gaskin have played a much more even split of the backfield snaps in the last two weeks, making both untrustworthy for fantasy purposes. If I had to pick one it would be Laird, but both are bad fantasy plays this week.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): With the 6th seed already etched in stone for Minnesota, I’d expect Mike Boone and CJ Ham to handle most of the running back duties against Chicago. Mattison and Dalvin Cook might both end up inactive again. Even if they don’t, I wouldn’t expect either one to see a carry in the 2nd half. The Bears will be playing for pride and for a .500 season, and despite their struggles still have one of the better defenses in the league. Boone is the option I’d look at if considering a cheap DFS play in this backfield.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): Brown has a questionable tag this week, and I can’t imagine he plays more than a few series even if he is active. The Ravens have nothing to gain by winning, so there shouldn’t be a lot of Brown, Mark Andrews or Willie Snead. There certainly won’t be enough of Brown to trust in fantasy lineups. Keep him sidelined.
WR N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Mia.): I’d like Meyers quite a bit this week if the Pats had already clinched a bye in the first round, but they haven’t. The Patriots need to win this week to secure the bye, and it’s been a guessing game in recent weeks as to which receivers will get the playing time. Julian Edelman is the only receiver on the team who has played 60% of the snaps or more 3 times in the last 4 games. Sanu seems to be back to a full-time role, but it always feels like that could change at a moment’s notice. The Dolphins are a great matchup for any offense to face, but there isn’t a lot of evidence pointing to Harry or Meyers being a good option this week.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 17: @NYG): I put my faith in JJ last week, and after posting 2-39 on the game’s opening drive he wasn’t targeted again. You’d think at some point the Eagles will have to start utilizing him more as the depth chart thins out, especially in a must-win game like this one. Zach Ertz has been ruled out for this game, so it’ll be Greg Ward, Dallas Goedert and the running backs aside from JJAW. The Giants are one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so there is upside in JJ at his meager $3,700 price tag on DraftKings, but I’ve been intrigued by him before and been burned. He’s not a player I’ll be taking a flyer on this week.
WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): Terry McLaurin may have been ruled out for this week already, but that won’t change the fact that Harmon is mainly a low-upside PPR option who just posted his best career game at 10.8 PPR points. Don’t buy in to upside for Harmon that just isn’t there for him right now. Dallas allows the 6th-fewest WR PPR points per game. You should probably avoid Harmon this week.
WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): Johnson is likely to play a lot this week, but we’ve seen him do that with Thielen out and he only mustered sporadic production. The Bears allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game, and Johnson hasn’t reached 50 yards in any game all season. Don’t think of him as an upside DFS option just because he’s cheap and Diggs & Thielen are unlikely to play much.
TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Smith bounced back in a big way last weekend with 2 touchdowns against Washington, but he is unlikely to have a strong follow up. The Eagles have allowed just 3 tight ends to reach 9 PPR points all season long, and just one since week 4. Philly has struggled to contain wide receivers but has been one of the best teams in the league at stopping the tight end position. I’d look elsewhere for upside DFS tight ends this week.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): Knox could get a boost from any extended Matt Barkley playing time. He caught 2 passes for 37 yards among Barkley’s 16 pass attempts in week 4. He costs just $2,700 on DraftKings, but the Jets allow the 4th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. There are higher upside options to chase.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): With Mark Ingram sitting out, it’ll be Gus Edwards and Hill handling most of the rushing attempts. This should be the first real extended look we get at Hill all year. Hill posted 51 yards and a touchdown on 6 touches last week and should see his way to double-digit touches in this one. The Steelers boast a solid defense, but Hill’s speed makes him a home run threat at just about any time. He’s an inexpensive $4,600 on DraftKings. I’d only be thinking of him as an upside DFS tournament play.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 17: vs. Was.): Pollard has been a non-factor in most games where the Cowboys are trailing or playing close, but they’re a 12-point favorite this week against a Washington defense that allows the 3rd-most RB PPR points per game. This is a prime spot for Pollard to have a big game and he costs just $4,000 on DraftKings. There’s a low floor, as evidenced by his negative point performance last week, but he’s a very interesting DFS Tournament play.
WR Steven Sims, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): The matchup isn’t ideal, as I laid out with Kelvin Harmon above, but Sims has been heavily involved with 21 targets and 3 touchdowns in the last 2 weeks, and his DFS price hasn’t caught up with his production yet. With McLaurin out he should see close to double-digit targets again, and he’s a small, speedy receiver who should see a couple deep targets from Case Keenum. He’s not exactly a safe play, but he has a great chance to outproduce his $4,700 price tag on DraftKings.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): Like Justice Hill, Boykin should get a chance to shine as the guys ahead of him on the depth chart get a light week to keep them healthy for the playoffs. Boykin has turned 3 of his 13 catches on the year into touchdowns, and he costs just the minimum on DraftKings. He’s a TD dart throw for DFS tournaments with the upside to be more. With the Steelers favored by a couple points, the Ravens may throw a little more than they typically do.
TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): The majority of the practice snaps this week for Minnesota tight ends have gone to backups Smith and Tyler Conklin. I’d be surprised if Kyle Rudolph doesn’t play a diminished role with nothing at stake for the Vikings, and the Bears allow the 6th-most TE points per game. Smith costs just $2,800 on DraftKings and may very well lead the Vikings in receiving this week. He’s a worthwhile option in DFS tournaments.
That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
