Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re nearing the midway point of the fantasy regular season, and we’re starting to get a better idea of which surprising performances have been just a hiccup or flash in the pan, and which are trends with staying power. Last week went mostly as expected for the rookie crop.
Terry McLaurin and Kyler Murray continued their standout rookie seasons, Miles Sanders was relegated to mainly passing down work (although he did find some success there), Daniel Jones fell flat in a really tough matchup, and DK Metcalf, Darius Slayton, Benny Snell and Jakobi Meyers all found their way to respectable performances. Snell was especially impressive posting 75 yards on 17 carries and another 14 on 1 reception. With James Conner banged up with a quad injury, Snell is a running back worth targeting in next week’s waivers (or to scoop up off the free agent heap this week if he’s still out there due to the Steelers’ bye).
Another rookie who is on a bye this week to take note of is WR Scotty Miller of the Bucs. With Breshad Perriman sidelined and a negative game script Miller played 60% of the offensive snaps and was targeted 7 times in London. Some folks will forget about him through the Bucs bye this week. Keep him in mind in deep PPR leagues (especially dynasty). This week should be a more productive one for the rookie RBs with Montgomery, Jacobs, and Singletary back on the field, but there are plenty more rookies to talk about in week 7. Let’s dive in…
Rookies to Start:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 7: @NYG): Kyler posted his best fantasy game yet in week 6 against the hapless Falcons’ defense, and he gets another substandard unit this week. The Giants are allowing the 5th-most QB points per game. They’ve coughed up more than 300 passing yards 4 times in 6 games and have given up multiple TDs in 5 of them (including rushing scores). Murray ranks as the QB7 for the year in terms of points per game, and he’s run for 221 yards in the past 4 weeks. He’s a locked-in QB1 this week and should be a top-5 option at the position if Christian Kirk returns to the field.
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 7: @GB): The Packers did a pretty good job of containing Kerryon Johnson on the ground on Monday night, but most of his attempts came after the Lions had put Green Bay in a hole and their run-heavy play calling became obvious to predict. On the season, The Packers rank just 26th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Jacobs is the RB15 on the season in PPR points per game. The Raiders have been committed to the run and have managed to get Jacobs to 79+ rushing yards in 4 of 5 contests. I like the chances that he makes it 5 of 6 here as the Raiders try to work the run game to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 7: @Sea.): If Brown plays this week, he should probably play for you. He’s seen at least 5 targets in every game he’s been active. The Seahawks have a middling secondary that ranks 15th in pass defense DVOA, but they allow the 8th-most passing yards per game in the league and this is the 2nd time all year the Ravens will be underdogs. The last time they were an underdog Brown was targeted 9 times against the Chiefs. His production didn’t really measure up to his usage in that game, but KC’s secondary has been better than expected this year. If any team knows what it takes to keep Lamar Jackson contained in the pocket and keep him throwing rather than running, it’s the one that practices against Russell Wilson every day. I expect Hollywood to post his best performance since week 2 if he’s able to play. His status is genuinely up in the air as of Wednesday, so monitor injury reports if you’re considering him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Jones was predictably harassed into his worst game of the year against New England last Thursday. He was held to season-lows in rushing yards, completion percentage, passing yards, and completions, and threw a season-high 3 picks. On a positive note, he did become the first QB to throw a touchdown against the Patriots this year. Things get a lot easier this week. The Cardinals rank just 29th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed opposing signal-callers to post an outlandish 121 passer rating. They’ve allowed at least 240 passing yards in every contest and given up multiple TDs in 5 of 6. Jones may be down Sterling Shepard this week but should have Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram back. The return of Patrick Peterson from suspension should improve the entire defense for Arizona, but it will likely take a week for him to shake off the rust of 6 weeks of missed action and he still won’t be a cure-all once he does. Jones should be a high-end QB2 at worst this week.
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 7: @Cin.): The Bengals have ceded the 4th-most QB points per game to opposing passers, but they’ve somehow limited them to just 1.3 passing scores per game. The place they’ve really been burned by quarterbacks is on the ground (Josh Allen 9-46, Kyler Murray 10-93-1, Lamar Jackson 19-152-1). Minshew can run a little himself, but I wouldn’t expect a gaudy output like those other QBs have posted. I expect him to bounce-back this week to a degree against a bad Bengals’ defense. The Bengals are expected to be without both of their starting corners, so Minshew should have a safe floor as a mid-level QB2 despite likely having limited volume again.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Mia.): Singletary gets the ultimate plus matchup in his likely return to action this week. The Bills enter the week as a whopping 17-point favorite and only Cincy allows more running back points per game than the Dolphins. The Bills might not want to give Singletary a full workload in his return so I would expect Gore to still see a good amount of early down work, but Yeldon should be pushed to the bench. This is a matchup that is good enough to have 2 fantasy relevant runners come out of it, so Singletary is very much in play as a low-end RB2/flex option.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. NO): Montgomery’s volume took a hit in week 5 in London as the Bears trailed by multiple scores for most of the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but I wouldn’t expect them to get ambushed like that again with an extra week to prepare for the Saints and Alvin Kamara truly questionable to play. He should be back up to 15+ carries and a few targets like we were used to, but the Saints have been a stingy defense since Teddy Bridgewater took over at QB. They allow the 7th-fewest RB points per game and rank 5th in run defense DVOA. This isn’t exactly a smash spot for Monty, but his volume should get him on the RB2 map this week.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 7: @Dal.): Sanders demonstrated last week why it’s hard to just write him off even when he is phased out of the running game. Head coach Doug Pederson stayed true to his word and gave a bigger share of the carries to Jordan Howard, limiting Sanders to his lowest snap share and lowest number of touches of the season. He managed to salvage a reasonable fantasy week despite this, pulling in 3 catches for 86 yards and a score on just 3 targets. The bigger concern here is that he only got those 3 targets. The Eagles were behind all game and Sanders was operating as the primary receiving back with Darren Sproles out. You’d have expected the ball to come his way a bit more. He’s a dicey flex option this week even if Sproles is out again. You’d be hard-pressed to expect Sanders to duplicate last week’s output if his usage is the same, and the Cowboys have only allowed 2 running backs to reach 40 receiving yards on the year.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. SF): If you have McLaurin, you are probably starting him. I just wanted to list him as a ‘Borderline’ option to emphasize that this is a really tough matchup for him. The 49ers rank 1st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed a league-low 10 pass plays of 20+ yards thus far. McLaurin thrives on the deep ball, ranking 2nd in the NFL with 124 air yards per week. He’s clearly cemented himself as the #1 wide receiver in DC, but this week he is more of an upside WR3 than the locked in WR1/2 he’s played like.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. Bal.): Metcalf’s targets have been inconsistent this year (31 targets in 6 games), but he’s managed to top 60 yards in 4 of 6 contests this season. He may be squaring off with Marcus Peters this week after the Ravens traded for him from the Rams. Peters has had a reputation as a playmaker who can get burned due to his aggressive style, but so far this year Pro Football Focus has graded him as a top-10 corner in the league. Metcalf may still see a good number of targets come his way with Will Dissly suffering an achilles injury and Tyler Lockett drawing shadow coverage from Marlon Humphrey. He’s an interesting option in DFS tournaments on the off chance that Peters reverts to his burnable ways, and is in play as a WR3 due to the likely bump in volume.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): Hockenson gets the borderline treatment this week because of how ugly things get at the end of the TE1 list, especially in a week with Greg Olsen, Vance McDonald, and OJ Howard on byes (ok, OJ hasn’t really been helpful). It’s hard to picture Hockenson having a big week against a Viking defense that has made tight ends work for their points this year, but TJ’s 6 red zone targets in his past 3 games means he’s got as good a shot as any Lions’ pass catcher of finding the end zone. The Vikings have allowed 5 different tight ends to top 40 yards and all 5 of them had at least 8 targets to get there. Only 2 of them (Darren Waller and Austin Hooper) cleared 55 yards, and none of them got in the end zone. Hockenson doesn’t see the same kind of volume as the guys that the Vikings have been facing. He’s averaged 5 targets per game and hasn’t had more than 6 in a game since week 1. I wouldn’t expect him to post a big day, but the shot at a TD keeps him in play.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 7: @Det.): Mattison set season-highs in carries (14) and yards (63), and once again most of it came in garbage time with the game decided. He also lost a fumble which could ding his playing time in the near future. Game script continues to be the biggest factor in his fantasy performances, but until he starts getting more opportunities to catch passes or get the ball at the goal line, he’s going to be a low-upside option. This week’s game in Detroit has just a 1-point spread in the Vikings’ favor. If they wind up playing from ahead, Mattison probably finds his way to 50+ scoreless, catchless yards again. If not, he probably won’t make much of an impact.
RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 7: @Sea.): Hill’s time is eventually going to come, but for now it’s at least encouraging that he hasn’t been completely erased from the game plan. The 17 snaps he played in week 6 was the most he’s seen since week 1, and he managed to tally 35 rushing yards. He remains a guy to keep stashed in deeper leagues. If something were to happen to Ingram or Gus Edwards, he could be a league-winner in this offense.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): Pollard continued to be an afterthought in week 6 with the Cowboys trailing all game. They’re just a 3-point favorite this week in what should be a close game with Philly. Pollard has been on the field for just 15 snaps in the last 3 weeks, and I don’t expect a big jump there unless the Cowboys pull away.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 7: @Den.): Mecole saw just 4 targets against Houston with Tyreek Hill back on Sunday, and he was the receiver who saw his snaps take the biggest hit from the return, playing the lowest snap % he has all year. The Broncos rank 7th in pass defense DVOA and allow the fewest points per game to opposing WRs. 50 yards would be a positive outcome for Hardman even with Sammy Watkins ruled out again. There is always the threat of a homerun play with Mecole, but the chances he makes good on that threat are greatly reduced with Hill back.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 7: @Was.): The 49ers have been the run-heaviest team in the league so far, throwing on just 43% of their offensive plays, and their pass distribution has been wildly inconsistent from week to week. Samuel is second on the team in targets, and he averages just 4.4 per game. He also entered the week with a questionable tag due to an injury suffered Sunday. The 49ers enter week 7 as a 10-point road favorite against Washington. I don’t expect there to be enough of a passing game to support more than one or two fantasy relevant pass-catchers, and if there is a guy beyond George Kittle that comes through this week, it will most likely be Dante Pettis, who is starting to look more like the guy we expected him to be.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): There’s been a changing of the guard at QB in the Music City and hopefully it will jump start the Titans’ offense. This week they face the struggling Chargers. The Chargers rank just 27th in pass defense DVOA, but they have been especially vulnerable against WR1s. They’ve allowed 4 different WR1s to reach 17 PPR points against them in 6 games (TY Hilton, Golladay, DeVante Parker and Courtland Sutton). Kenny Stills is the only non-WR1 to reach 70 yards against them. Corey Davis is the most likely receiver to benefit from the matchup this week. The Titans’ first plan of attack is always the run game, and they should have success against a Charger defense that is coughing up 120 rushing yards per game. That should keep the passing volume low and make Brown no more than a dart throw in deep leagues and DFS tournaments.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 7: @Buf.): The Dolphins’ offense is projected to get wiped out this week. Vegas gives them a ridiculously low implied total of just 11.5 points, and the Bills have been excellent against opposing WRs. They’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest PPR points per game to the position. Only 4 receivers have reached 50 yards against them, and only 2 have reached 70. Williams has had a better connection with Josh Rosen than newly re-appointed starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. I wouldn’t count on Preston to post much more than 30-40 yards in this one.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 7: @NYG): Johnson has had opportunity this year, but thus far the snaps and targets just aren’t turning into fantasy points. He’s seen 21 targets and 1 rushing attempt in the last 5 weeks, and he’s posted just 21.2 PPR points in that time. Christian Kirk will likely return this week, limiting Johnson’s opportunity even further. There just isn’t a lot of reason to roll him out there at this point, even in a matchup against the defense that allows the 5th-most WR PPR points per game.
WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 7: @GB): The potential absence of Tyrell Williams at least makes Renfrow someone you could consider if you were in a pinch in a deep PPR league this week, but I don’t like this spot for him. Green Bay ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA this season, and although they’ve shown some vulnerability against the pass lately it’s been perimeter receivers who have hurt them. They’ve allowed 3 outside WRs to top 100 yards in the last 2 weeks (Golladay, Gallup, Amari Cooper). Renfrow should see a handful of targets, especially if the Raiders play from behind, but I wouldn’t count on him turning them into much. He’s yet to top 30 yards this season.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 7: @Sea.): With Hollywood Brown out last week Boykin played 56% of the offensive snaps (less than only Willie Snead among the WRs), but he only managed to post 2 catches for 28 yards on 3 targets. The Ravens continue to be a run-first offense, and when they do throw the passing game gets funneled to Mark Andrews and Brown. Even with Brown out, Andrews was the only player to be targeted more than 5 times and received 24% of the team’s total targets. There would be some upside for Boykin as a cheap DFS option this week if Hollywood were to sit again. The Seahawks have been just a middling pass defense and Baltimore would likely have to throw more than they did last week, but we haven’t seen enough of a ceiling yet to trust Boykin in season-long formats.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Campbell is listed as doubtful for this week, but if by some miracle he does manage to play he’s managed to top 6 PPR points just once in 4 games (8.2 in week 2).
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Fant’s role in the offense has been secure, but his fantasy production has had a low ceiling thus far. On paper the Chiefs look like a favorable matchup for a tight end. They’ve allowed the 4th-most catches and 4th-most yards to the position. The problem is that few tight ends have really posted big days on their own. The Jaguars’ tight ends went 8-59 against them, but it was split between Geoff Swaim and James O’Shaughnessy. The Raiders posted 9-96, but it was split between Waller and Derek Carrier. In all, the Chiefs have allowed 11 tight ends to record 3+ catches against them in just 6 games. Only 3 of them made it to 50 receiving yards, and only one of them found the end zone. Fant will likely need a touchdown to return value this week, and that’s something the Chiefs haven’t been surrendering to tight ends.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 7: @GB): Moreau has seen his snap count increase for 4 games in a row, but not because Darren Waller is playing any less. Moreau set his season highs in London with 4 catches for 46 yards. The Packers are unlikely to let him reach those numbers again this week. Green Bay has allowed the 6th-fewest TE PPR points per game, and Zach Ertz is the only tight end they’ve allowed to total more than 4 catches and 40 yards all year.
Rookies on Byes this week: QB Devlin Hodges, PIT, RB Benny Snell, PIT, RB Reggie Bonnafon, CAR, WR Diontae Johnson, PIT, WR Scotty Miller, TB, TE Zach Gentry, PIT
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Obviously Lock isn’t a guy that has any relevance this week. He’s currently on IR, but it’s possible he could be activated as early as week 8. There are rumors afoot this week that if Denver loses on Thursday, they may look at trading Emmanuel Sanders. It would only be a matter of time before they hand the QB job over to the heir apparent if this becomes a lost season. He’ll have some young weapons even if they trade Manny – Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, DaeSean Hamilton. If you are in a 2-QB league with slim waiver pickings, it might make some sense to stash Lock a little early in hopes he takes the job sooner than later.
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 7: @Atl.): Henderson FINALLY got a chance to play a little bit last Sunday with Todd Gurley sidelined, and he did not disappoint. It wasn’t all perfect – he did fumble a pitch at one point, but the skill he showed on his very first rushing attempt was tantalizing. He played just 17 snaps but managed to turn 7 touches into 48 scrimmage yards. I think he did enough to warrant more playing time going forward if Gurley is sidelined again, but it might be even better than that for Darrell. Malcolm Brown is questionable for this week as well with an ankle injury. There is a chance that Henderson is the lead back against a Falcons’ defense that has given up 7 TDs to running backs in 6 weeks. They had been limiting backs in the passing game prior to week 6, but Chase Edmonds and David Johnson combined for 101 receiving yards and 2 scores Sunday. Gurley has been trending towards playing, but if Gurley and Brown both sit, Henderson is an RB2 this week. If Gurley plays and Brown doesn’t, I’d still expect a decent amount of Henderson. Grab him if he is still on waivers in your league.
WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 7: @NYJ): Meyers was solid on Thursday night filling in for the injured Phillip Dorsett, posting 4-54 on 4 targets. I’d be surprised if Dorsett returns this week, but Josh Gordon also came away with an injury in Thursday night’s game. It’s possible that Meyers will be playing as the WR2 against the Jets. New York has allowed the 12th-most WR PPR points per game this year and let all 3 of New England’s wide receivers (Dorsett, Gordon, and Julian Edelman) catch for more than 50 yards in the first meeting between the teams in week 3. If Gordon and Dorsett both sit, I’d expect Meyers to duplicate his output from last week with the upside for more.
WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Patrick Peterson’s return will make the Cardinals a tougher matchup overall, but they have coughed up the 4th-most WR PPR points per game. P-squared won’t suddenly change that overnight, and he’s unlikely to spend a lot of time matched up with Slayton. Slayton has shown a nice rapport with rookie QB Daniel Jones. The returns of Engram and Barkley will put a damper on his upside, but Sterling Shepard is likely to sit which will keep Slayton on the field. He played 98% of the offensive snaps last week and saw 8 targets. He wasn’t overly productive with those targets, but he goes from a brutal matchup to a very favorable one and he’s getting high-value targets as well, averaging just over 18 air yards per pass attempt in his direction. Slayton is an interesting DFS tournament play at a very reasonable price ($4,100 on DraftKings).
WR N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 7: @NYJ): While Jakobi Meyers has been doing a nice job filling in for the banged-up Pats’ wide receivers, their 1st round pick N’Keal Harry has been getting closer to returning. He is set to start practicing this week, and once that happens the Pats will have 3 weeks to move him to the active roster. If Harry plays like the guy that the Pats thought they were drafting, he could move ahead of Meyers and Dorsett on the depth chart once he’s activated. It’s probably a little premature to scoop him off the waiver wire this week in most formats but keep an eye on the practice reports and monitor where the Patriots are at with him. This is a high-scoring offense, so if Harry has a role he will likely have some late-season fantasy relevance.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Mia.): The only thing keeping me from making Knox a borderline TE1 option this week is the pending return of Tyler Kroft, who seems likely to play. We don’t know what kind of split the Bills will employ with their tight ends, but every offensive player has a shot a good day when your team plays the Dolphins. Miami has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per game to opposing TEs, and Knox has averaged 4 targets and 39 yards per game over the past 4 games. It’s ugly out there when you’re searching for a fill-in TE, and Knox does have the upside for a solid game.
TE Josh Oliver, JAX (Wk. 7: @Cin.): The Bengals boast one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and after Geoff Swaim went down with a probable concussion last weekend the Jaguars were down to just Seth DeValve at tight end. The Jaguars play with multiple tight ends on nearly 40% of their offensive snaps and the Bengals have given up lines of 3-67-1 to Dawson Knox and 6-99 to Mark Andrews. Oliver is no more than a dart throw for a TD this week, but if he doesn’t miss this game with injury he should be on the field a decent amount. If he misses, DeValve becomes an interesting minimum-priced DFS option.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close watch on the injury report this week to make sure of the status of anyone who can affect your lineup, even if it’s not the guy in your lineup. For example, Jakobi Meyers loses some of his appeal if Josh Gordon and/or Phillip Dorsett are good to go. If you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about any of the info included above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
