Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was a rough one for me here at the Rookie Report, and it was a rough week to be a rookie in general unless your name is AJ Brown or Diontae Johnson. TJ Hockenson found the end zone, but also suffered a brutal concussion. Terry McLaurin was unable to play in a plum matchup. DK Metcalf, Hollywood Brown and Mecole Hardman had a brutal week as they COMBINED for just 37 yards – and Hardman lost a fumble as well. Miles Sanders got to watch firsthand as Jordan Howard put up a monster fantasy game and took the majority of the Eagles’ backfield production against a bad run defense, and David Montgomery finally got some serious volume but managed just 53 yards on 21 carries (2.52 ypc). As for the quarterbacks, Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray both had lackluster days, but Dwayne Haskins wouldn’t be outdone. Haskins was Nathan Peterman-esque in his debut, throwing 3 interceptions in just 17 attempts. Josh Jacobs and Gardner Minshew both posted respectable weeks, but the rest of the rookie pool was mostly a wasteland. Let’s talk about what to do with your rookies in week 5 and see who might bounce back…
Rookies to Start:
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 5: @Oak.): While the overall efficiency for Montgomery was frustrating last week, the volume is a great sign. Monty saw season highs in snaps, carries, and targets with Chase Daniel under center. It’ll be Daniel at the helm again in London, and the Bears are favored by 5 & a half points. The Raiders have been solid against the run so far this year, but they aren’t on par with the Vikings. A similar workload against a less formidable defense should lead Montgomery to a solid RB2 afternoon (or evening if you’re in London).
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Hollywood definitely failed to put on a show in week 4, but the targets were still there. He’s going to consistently see the football come his way, and the Steelers are not a pass defense to fear. They rank 19th in pass defense DVOA. Brown showed you what the floor looks like in week 4, but you’ll be kicking yourself if you leave him on the bench and he hits his ceiling.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 5: @Cin.): I like Kyler in this matchup, but I’m a little hesitant to give a full-throated endorsement here. Murray hasn’t exactly set the world on fire like I thought he would yet, and he’s likely to be missing his number 2 receiver Christian Kirk. The expected replacement is Pharoh Cooper. The matchup is a good one. Only Miami and the Cards themselves have allowed a higher passer rating to opposing QBs than the Bengals. Murray should be a safe QB2 option this week, and his QB1 ceiling remains intact in the plus matchup.
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): This isn’t the best spot for Jones as a potential streamer, but it’s also not quite as bad a spot for him as it could be. Jones’ dink-and-dunk style could work well against a Vikings’ defense that has allowed the 6th-highest completion percentage to opposing QBs, especially with the return of Golden Tate. 7 of the 8 offensive touchdowns Minnesota has given up have been through the air. Jones would be outside of my top-12 QBs for the week, but not by a lot.
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): The trip to London for Jacobs this week is unlikely to be a pleasant one. His volume keeps him on the flex radar, but this is still a bit of a committee situation for Jacobs. After coach Jon Gruden talked about wanting to get more targets for Jacobs during the week, the rookie RB was targeted just twice in the passing game. He also played just 54% of the snaps in a game that Oakland led for most of the day. Oakland is a 5.5-point underdog this week against the Bears, who rank 3rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed fewer RB rushing yards per game than everyone except New England, Philly and Tampa. You can start Jacobs if you have to, but temper your expectations.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): It’s tough for me to endorse starting Sanders this week. He’s going to see enough volume to at least be in consideration for your flex spot, especially with the Eagles favored by two touchdowns, but the Jets have been stout against the run. Outside of 4 magical Devin Singletary carries in week 1, the Jets have allowed opposing backs to run for just 146 yards on 54 carries (2.7 ypc) despite facing Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in one-sided losses. The Jets have surrendered 3 rushing scores through 3 games, but after watching Thursday night’s game it’s hard to imagine the goal line carries would go to anyone but Jordan Howard. Sanders is going to need to break a long play or two to return solid value as a flex this week.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 5: @LAR): Metcalf posted just 1 catch for 6 yards last week, but the opportunity has still been there. He had 107 air yards worth of targets last weekend and was targeted in the end zone once and didn’t cash in. In fact, 40% of all of the Seahawks pass attempts into the end zone have targeted Metcalf so far. The opportunities will continue to be there this week and he matches up with a Rams defense that gave up 385 passing yards and 4 TDs to the Bucs Sunday. Metcalf is a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Hardman had an abysmal game in Detroit last week, and while I’d like to see him get back on track at home against Indy, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t put up quite the same video game numbers in matchups against teams that play a lot of zone. In 5 games against teams that ranked in the top-10 in zone defense %, Mahomes topped 300 yards just once and threw for more than 2 TDs just twice (per Rotoworld’s Ian Hartitz). The upside is still there as it always is in this offense, but Hardman is probably on the wrong side of the borderline for me this week.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. NE): I can’t completely write off McLaurin this week since he’s had at least 5 catches for 60 yards and a TD in every game this year, but this is a week where I wouldn’t be very confident he gets to those numbers. The Patriots have been the league’s best defense this year. Sure it’s been aided by a schedule that included the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills already, but Washington still hasn’t decided who will be starting at QB this week. It could be a rough game for the entire offense. You can give McLaurin a try this week if you’re feeling spicy, but know that there is a low floor.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Johnson’s recent play with Mason Rudolph at quarterback has been solid enough to at least get him on the flex radar for now. Diontae has a 20% target share with Rudolph at the helm (just one fewer target than JuJu), and he’s found the end zone in back-to-back games. It was also a promising sign that the Steelers went right back to him after an early fumble. The concern for Johnson is that the Steelers have been a low volume passing offense that isn’t throwing the ball downfield. He was the recipient of a long TD pass on Monday night, but it was one of just 3 passes that Rudolph threw more than 10 yards downfield. The Ravens haven’t exactly been a shut down unit, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA, but the Steelers’ current offense doesn’t make Johnson a high upside option. You’ll likely need him to find the end zone again to return strong value.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 5: @Car.): Week in and week out, Minshew continues to put up solid performances and has proven to be a passable weekly QB2 option. That’s not too bad for a kid that NO ONE thought would start games this year. This week’s matchup isn’t one to target Minshew in though. He still may finish as that steady QB2 he’s been, but it’s hard to see the upside for much more than that. The Panthers are allowing a league-low 182 passing yards per game and have given up just 4 passing scores so far. There are more appealing QB2 options this week.
QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. NE): Haskins’ NFL debut was an unmitigated disaster. It makes you wonder why Washington didn’t have him better prepared if they knew they would have such a quick hook with Keenum. It was bad enough that he might not even make the start this week. Colt McCoy is apparently now healthy and could get the nod Sunday. If Haskins does start again, this would be about as bad a week as I could imagine to play him. The Patriots have allowed zero passing scores and have 10 interceptions through 4 games. Run far away from him this week.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 5: @NYG): Mattison’s fantasy upside this season has been directly tied to game script. He’s done nothing in close games and when the Vikings have trailed (6 carries for 30 yards against Green Bay and Chicago in losses), but he’s shown value in positive game scripts (21-107-1 against Atlanta and Oakland in blowout wins). The Vikings are favored this week by 5.5 points, so there is a chance for another strong outing. If you’re in a really deep league and are confident the Vikes win easily he’s a guy to keep in mind, but be aware that the highest reasonable expectation for Mattison would be in the ballpark of 50 yards and a TD.
RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 5: @Car.): Armstead surprised last week with nearly 50 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but I wouldn’t chase last week’s points. It was the first extended playing time he’s gotten all year, and he still played just 14 offensive snaps. The Panthers haven’t been great against the run, ranking 29th in run defense DVOA, but I don’t expect Armstead to play enough to take advantage of that.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 5: vs. GB): The Packers look like a defense to target with your running backs this season, but your running back has to see the field to be able to take advantage. Pollard was great against the Dolphins in a blowout win, but in a close game with the Saints on Sunday night he played just 2 offensive snaps. Dallas is favored by 3.5 in this game, but I don’t see Green Bay getting too far out of this one at any point. Keep Pollard sideline this week.
RB Dexter Williams, GB (Wk. 5: @Dal.): Williams will likely get some chances to spell Aaron Jones if Jamaal Williams isn’t recovered from his head injury in time for this one, but I wouldn’t expect the split to be anywhere near as even as it is with Jones and Jamaal. Aaron Jones should operate as the clear lead back. The matchup isn’t ideal as the Cowboys have allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game. Dexter is also a bit overpriced to be a cheap DFS play at $4,200 on DraftKings,
RB Jon Hilliman, NYG (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Hilliman saw 10 carries last week with Saquon Barkley out of commission, but much of that work came with the game already out of hand after two Wayne Gallman touchdowns. New York is much less likely to run away with this game as a 5.5-point underdog against the Vikings. There isn’t any reason to consider Hilliman this week.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): Brown came up with a huge performance in week 4, with his second game with 90+ yards while also scoring his first 2 touchdowns. The weekly performance swings with Brown are going to be huge, and this isn’t a week to target him to go off again. The Bills have a reputation as one of the most formidable secondaries in the league and rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA thus far. This is likely to be more of a floor week than ceiling for Brown.
WRs Deebo Samuel & Jalen Hurd, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): The 49ers have already had one of the toughest WR rotations to figure out from a fantasy perspective, and things get even messier this week with Jalen Hurd expected to make his debut and Tevin Coleman likely to return to steal some targets from the WR group. George Kittle is still option #1 in the passing game, but your guess is as good as mine when it comes to who is #2, 3, and 4. The Browns rank 9th in pass defense DVOA, so I’d prefer to look for other options rather roll the dice on one of the 49ers’ receivers this week.
WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): Renfrow’s role as the Raiders’ primary slot receiver is secure, but so is his limited upside. He’s yet to top 4 catches or 30 yards in a game and has just 2 red zone targets on the year. He faces the Bears’ elite defense this week. There isn’t a reason to expect a breakout game from Renfrow this week.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Boykin found the end zone for the 2nd time in 4 games last weekend, but he’s still playing behind Willie Snead and Seth Roberts and the Ravens’ passing game runs through Hollywood and Mark Andrews. Boykin will have the occasional game where he finds the end zone, but they’re going to be hard to predict. Until he moves up the depth chart he’s best left on your bench.
WR Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 5: @Cin.): There was speculation that this could be the week that Isabella sees an expanded role with Christian Kirk out of action, but head coach Kliff Kingsbury dumped a bucket of cold water on that thought on Wednesday. Kingsbury reiterated that Isabella will continue to work primarily as a perimeter receiver for the time being, and Kirk plays the vast majority of his snaps in the slot. It’s possible that Kliff is just trying to keep plans to unleash Isabella in the slot secret, but for now I’ll take him at his word. Isabella has been running behind KeeSean Johnson and Trent Sherfield on the outside and is yet to play more than 8 snaps in a game. It’s still a situation to monitor on Sunday, but I would avoid playing him anywhere.
TE Zach Gentry, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Gentry profiles as more of a receiving tight end than newly acquired Nick Vannett, but it was Vannett who played 75% of the offensive snaps on Monday night and saw the only 2 tight end targets with Vance McDonald sidelined. If McDonald sits again this week, I wouldn’t expect much to change. The Ravens have given up 60 yards per game to opposing tight ends, but I wouldn’t count on Vannett and Gentry to combine for that amount this week.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): Moreau had his best game of the year last Sunday, going 3-30-1 on 3 targets, but he still has just 7 targets on the year and isn’t seeing enough volume to even be a DFS dart throw against the Bears in London.
Rookies on Byes: RB Ty Johnson, DET, WR Preston Williams, MIA, TE TJ Hockenson, DET
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): It appears that Singletary is on track to return from injury this week, but I’d be a little hesitant to trust him to have a full workload after a multi-week layoff. Still, there is some upside for him to have a solid return. The Titans have allowed 6.5 catches per game to opposing RBs. Frank Gore has just 5 targets on the year, and TJ Yeldon played just 7 offensive snaps in the 2 weeks Singletary was active. There is some upside for a decent PPR game if Singletary is a full go this week.
RB Damien Harris, NE (Wk. 5: @Was.): I mainly mention Harris here as a stash in deeper leagues. Sony Michel has been much less effective than expected this year. He has literally zero broken tackles through 4 games and he’s averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. If that continues, he’s eventually going to lose playing time. We’ve already been seeing a decent amount of Rex Burkhead mixing in, but it’s only a matter of time before Harris starts getting looks as well. In his first 2 years as a Patriot, Rex hasn’t exactly been a picture of health, missing 14 of a possible 32 games with a range of maladies. There isn’t a reason to consider Harris this week as he may be inactive again, but he’s definitely a guy to be aware of playing in an offense that has scored 42% of their touchdowns with the ground game since the start of 2017.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 5: @KC): This is a moot point if TY Hilton winds up being active this week, but Campbell led the team with 8 targets last Sunday with their WR1 sidelined. They were mostly short targets, but this is a game where game script is likely to force the Colts to throw just as much as they did last week. If he manages to turn a couple of those short throws into bigger gains, he could suddenly be a sneaky WR4 in PPR leagues. Monitor Hilton’s status if you’re considering using Campbell this week.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 5: @Cin.): The Christian Kirk injury will open a ton of opportunity in this offense this week, and I don’t imagine that all of it will go to David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Kirk is averaging better than 9 targets per game, and it isn’t as if the Cards will suddenly be run-heavy this week. The Bengals defense is strongest on the perimeter, where Johnson plays, but he’s a better bet to pick up some extra work this week than Trent Sherfield or Pharoh Cooper. That makes him an intriguing DFS dart throw at just $3,500 on DraftKings. The Bengals rank 31st in pass defense DVOA.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 5: @LAC): Fant scored his first touchdown of the year in week 4, and while his yardage totals have been between 29 and 37 each week, his snap share has been consistently high. The Chargers have allowed 3 touchdowns to opposing tight ends in the first 4 games, which makes Fant a decent bet to find the end zone for a second consecutive week. There isn’t much more you can ask for from a bottom of the barrel TE option in DFS ($2,800 on DraftKings)
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): Knox has worked his way into the rotation as the Bills’ primary receiving tight end and has posted lines of 3-67-1 and 3-58 in the past two weeks. He’s only seen 7 targets total in those two games, but so far he’s making the most of them. The Titans allowed a TD to an opposing tight end in each of the first 3 games of the year. They managed to prevent it from becoming 4 straight last Sunday, but they allowed Austin Hooper to go 9-130. This is an enticing matchup for Knox. It’s reasonable to expect him in the 40-50 yard range with possible TD.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with the toughest lineup decisions you have that involve rookies. Keep on eye on the injury report leading up to the games this week and make sure you don’t start any inactive players. If you have any specific questions for me or just want to yell at me because you started DK Metcalf on my advice last week, feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
