Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 1 was a surprising one from the rookie crop, especially for the pass catchers. Terry McLaurin, Hollywood Brown, and AJ Brown all cleared 100 receiving yards. DK Metcalf finished with 89 yards. Miles Boykin and Preston Williams each found the end zone, and KeeSean Johnson was targeted 10(!) times. TJ Hockenson set an NFL rookie record for a tight end debut with 131 receiving yards. Among the running backs Josh Jacobs lived up to his workhorse hype, but David Montgomery and Miles Sanders were week 1 disappointments. Perhaps the most anticipated rookie storyline, the Kyler Murray revolution, got off to a slow start on Sunday but finished with a flourish. There’s a lot to unpack as we look to week 2. Despite all the breakout week one games there is only one rookie that I would say to start with confidence this week. You don’t want to overreact to a small sample size. There are however a few that are really close to that level. Let’s dive in and take a look at who they are…
Rookies to Start:
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 2: vs. KC): One thing was clear in Oakland’s impressive season opener – the backfield belongs to Josh Jacobs. He played 73% of the offensive snaps, handled 82% of the team’s rushing attempts, and got the only two carries inside the 5-yard line (both of which he converted into TDs). This week he’ll square off with a Kansas City defense that allowed the Jaguars to run for more than 5 yards per carry. The only concern with Jacobs is that his snaps could dip a little if the Raiders play from behind, which is likely against the Chiefs. Jalen Richard ran almost as many pass routes in 16% of the offensive snaps as Jacobs did in 73%, but this offense is built around Jacobs. He’ll still get plenty of work and is a weekly RB2 going forward.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 2: @Bal.): For 3 quarters last Sunday. Kyler and head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid system looked like a huge flop, and then suddenly it didn’t. Murray put on a show in the 4th quarter and overtime leading the Cards back from 18 down to tie the Lions and topping 300 yards in the process. He should get a ton of passing volume each week, and with the Ravens favored by nearly 2 TDs that’s certain to be the case in week 2. Game script likely played a role in this, but the Cardinals played at the fastest pace of any team in the league and nearly three quarters of their offensive play calls were passes. Vegas projects the game script to be similar this week. That volume alone should make Murray a solid QB2 this week, and his rushing upside gives him a chance at more.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 2: @NYG): Singletary looks like my biggest preseason whiff so far. His athletic profile was beyond underwhelming, but he’s already showing he can be a dynamic receiver and somehow managed 70 rushing yards on just 4 carries without a run longer than 23 yards (runs of 23, 20, 15 and 12). Frank Gore had 11 carries to Singletary’s 4, but it was Singletary who played 70% of the offensive snaps. TJ Yeldon was nowhere to be seen. A more neutral game script might result in more snaps for Gore, but Singletary is the back you want in this offense. He gets a decent matchup this week against the Giants. There are still risks here. He only handled 9 touches in the opener, and we have no idea if he’ll handle any goal line work, but I like him ahead of Montgomery and Sanders this week in PPR leagues because his receiving role feels safe.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 2: @Den.): Monty’s usage was a huge disappointment in week 1. He was in on just 28 offensive snaps and touched the ball just 7 times while playing behind Mike Davis for much of the night. It’s probably not a coincidence that the Bears’ offense was a mess. Head coach Matt Nagy said afterward it will be important for them to get Montgomery more involved going forward, and I expect him to stick to his word on that. Denver allowed 113 scrimmage yards and 2 scores to Josh Jacobs last week, and while a lot of that was due to Oakland hammering the run, I think Montgomery has nice upside if he gets up into the 12-15 touch range. I think he gets there. He’s still more of a risky flex play than anything, but I would expect a better showing from him in week 2.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 2: @Atl.): The matchup for Sanders looks enticing on paper. The Falcons were eviscerated by Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to the tune of 160 yards and 2 scores on 5.3 yards per carry, but I’m not sure Sanders has the workload to turn this into a big week. While he led the Eagles in snaps and touches last week, he’s clearly part of a 3-headed committee. There were a couple flashes of his talent last week on a 19-yard run and then a 21-yard TD that was called back on a(n erroneous) penalty, but outside of those two runs he totaled just 8 scrimmage yards on 10 carries and 2 targets. That’s not the kind of efficiency you hope for. It’s still a promising spot for Sanders, but he’s not more than a flex option right now.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): McLaurin is my favorite rookie WR play for this week, but he’s still not quite an auto-start. He was basically a full-time player – on the field for 93% of the team’s offensive snaps, but nearly 60% of his PPR points for the day came on one deep ball. It was still a positive sign to see Washington’s offense be willing to push the ball down the field, something they rarely did last year. Case Keenum had two completions of 40 yards or more and nearly had a third on a deep overthrow intended for an open McLaurin. Washington had just 6 completions of 40+ yards all of last season. McLaurin has solid upside this week against a Dallas defense that allowed Eli Manning to post a 95.5 passer rating and over 300 yards, but there is some baked in risk for a deep threat receiver with a 1-game track record. I think McLaurin is a borderline WR3 this week and should be a bargain in DFS slates with just a $3,800 price tag on DraftKings.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Metcalf had an impressive debut posting a 4-89 line on 6 targets, and on paper he seems set up for another solid week. Tyler Lockett is battling a back injury that could keep him out of this one and the Seahawks are a 4-point underdog. He should draw Joe Haden in coverage. Haden was solid in 2018 but struggled in the opener as did much of the Steeler defense. The one thing that keeps me from confidently saying you should start Metcalf this week is the Seahawks’ play calling. They threw the ball just 20 times in the opener in a game where the margin was never more than 4 points, and Tyler Lockett was double-covered for much of the game which may have led to more targets for Metcalf. If Lockett plays in this one, I think he gets significantly more than 2 targets, and those targets have to come from somewhere. If Lockett sits, I think I’d feel pretty comfortable rolling Metcalf out as my WR3 in most formats.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 2: vs. Ari.): While it’s clear Baltimore wants to take some deep shots to Hollywood each week, he played just 14 snaps Sunday. The 4-147-2 stat line was fun, but he’s going to be a volatile weekly option. Brown does get a good matchup against a depleted Cardinals secondary this week that’s missing CBs Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford, so it’s not a bad roll of the dice to take a shot on another big game. The Lions connected on 7 pass plays of 20+ yards against these Cardinals last Sunday. Just know Hollywood comes with a very low floor.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): I’m really tempted to tell you that you should be starting Hockenson this week, but I’m not quite ready to make that leap after one game. He’s clearly going to be one of the rare tight ends that produces as a rookie and will be a big part of the Lions’ game plan, but the team’s passing volume will be inconsistent and there are several other mouths to feed from that limited pie. Game script is projected to be close to neutral with the Chargers favored by 2.5 points. The Chargers ranked in the top half of the league last year at limiting tight ends and held the Colts trio of Doyle, Ebron and Mo-Alie Cox to just 3 catches for 31 yards. TJ is still just $3,000 in DraftKings and is a value there, but I wouldn’t play him over proven starters like Engram, OJ Howard, or Delanie Walker just yet.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 2: @Ari.): On paper this should be a good opportunity for Hill to get some extended run. The Ravens are a 13.5-point favorite, so the game script should be favorable for an already run-heavy team, but last Sunday was about as favorable a script as you’ll ever see and Hill got just 7 carries while Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards combined for 31. Bigger workloads will come for Hill eventually, but I’m not ready to count on him until I see him move ahead of Gus Edwards in the pecking order. He’s especially risky in PPR formats as Lamar Jackson didn’t have a single target to a running back in the opener.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 2: @GB): Mattison looked good in the opener with 9 carries for 49 yards but he didn’t touch the ball until the Vikings were already up 2 touchdowns. In fact, 5 of his 9 carries came with the team up by more than 20 points. Minnesota is a 3-point underdog in Green Bay against the Packers, who limited the Bears running backs to just 3 yards per carry. I don’t like Mattison’s chances of duplicating his output from last Sunday.
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Henderson finished week one with 1 carry and zero targets on just 2 offensive snaps. It’s a far cry from the workload most were projecting for him as Malcolm Brown ran as the clear number 2 back. I’d expect Henderson’s usage to increase as the year goes on, but there is obviously no way to trust him in week 2 against the Saints.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 2: @Was.): Week 1 was a disappointing one for Tony Pollard. With Zeke expected to play limited snaps it was going to be his best opportunity to make an impression on the coaching staff and show that he should have a role moving forward. He finished the game with 13 carries for 24 yards (1.8 ypc) and zero targets in the passing game. It went about as poorly as it could have for him. He’s still likely the handcuff if anything happens to Elliott, but his case for standalone value took a big hit Sunday.
RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 2: @Oak.): Thompson’s first game confirmed our worst fears after the Shady McCoy trade. He’s going to have a hard time getting on the field early on this season. Thompson played just 2 snaps on Sunday. If your league has 12+ teams and you have the room on your roster, I’d still hold on to Thompson to see if his role grows over the next few weeks.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Brown finished as the leading receiver for the Titans last Sunday despite playing only 43% of the offensive snaps and seeing just 4 targets come his way. His production isn’t going to be sustainable if that usage continues. The Titans are going to be run-heavy when they can, and they enter this weekend as a 3-point favorite. I’d prefer Brown this week over any of the other wide receivers in the ‘Rookies to Sit’ section but chasing last week’s points feels like a bad idea here.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Williams played less than half of the offensive snaps last week (42%) and is on probably the worst team in the NFL. It was nice to see him score a TD Sunday and there will be a lot of garbage time passing for the Phins this year, but I’d still like to see his playing time increase a bit before using him in lineups.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 2: @Ten.): It looks as though Campbell is going to be eased into the Colts offense this year. He played just 18 offensive snaps (29% share) in the opener and was targeted just once. His snaps may get an uptick from the injury to Devin Funchess, but Funchess plays much more on the perimeter than in the slot so those snaps are more likely to go to 2nd-year receiver Deon Cain. The Colts were run-heavy in week 1 despite trailing for most of the game. That doesn’t bode well for the fantasy outlook of a player with the limited snaps Campbell is seeing. It’ll take time for him to work his way into a bigger role.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 2: vs. Ari.): The matchup is a good one for Boykin, but his usage will likely prevent him from taking advantage of it. Boykin found the end zone against Miami, but he did it on his only target of the game. He played just 18 offensive snaps. It’s a low percentage bet to count on a productive game with such limited usage.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 2: @Atl.): JJ was out-snapped 10-5 by Mack Hollins in week one. That’s not enough run to be useful. He should be on the waiver wire in all but the deepest of redraft leagues for now.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Fant had a great opportunity to impress in week 1, and he didn’t really take advantage. He posted a 2-29 line despite running a receiving route on 83% of Joe Flacco’s dropbacks in a game the Broncos trailed in all night. The Bears are a much tougher defense than the Raiders unit he faced on Monday. Only five teams allowed fewer receiving yards to tight ends than the Bears last year, and somehow Fant has the same price tag in DraftKings as TJ Hockenson.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 2: @NYG): Knox found himself on the field for 58% of the Bills’ offensive snaps with Tyler Kroft sidelined, but he was targeted just once. Kroft has an extensive injury history and isn’t guaranteed to be active in week 2. Knox is worth keeping an eye on in deeper dynasty leagues as the season progresses. He’s no more than a long shot TD dart throw this week though.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Going into week one it appeared that Moreau’s road to fantasy relevance was road blocked by Darren Waller, but that didn’t stop him from finding his way onto the field for 55% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps and pulling in a couple catches. I have a feeling the snap count is an aberration caused by the Raiders playing with a positive game script all night. He’s a name to monitor in deep dynasty leagues, but he is in fact still road blocked by Waller for now.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 2: @Hou.): Minshew dazzled in his NFL debut despite physically looking like Uncle Rico’s football dreams come true. I doubt he continues to play quite as well as he did in week 1, but there are some positive signs. He was great in the face of pressure. He was pressured on about a third of his dropbacks, taking just one sack while throwing for 94 yards and 2 scores on those plays. Houston was shredded by Drew Brees in week one and managed to get just one sack in their first game after trading away Jadeveon Clowney. They may blitz a bit more this week to try and get more pressure, but Minshew has shown he can handle pressure. He should see decent passing volume again with the Jaguars a 9-point underdog, and that makes him a sneaky QB2 option this week.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 2: @Oak.): Hardman is an intriguing waiver wire pickup despite seeing just 1 target in the opener. He played 77% of the snaps in that opener thanks to the Tyreek Hill injury, and he should continue to be on the field a ton with Hill out for 4-6 weeks. Hardman is an explosive player in an explosive offense that faces off with the Raiders, Colts, Lions and Texans all within the next five weeks. He’s worth a flyer in most formats while Hill is on the shelf.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 2: @Bal.): Despite being drafted after both Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler, it was Johnson who was on the field as nearly full-time player in week 1. The Cardinals truly did bring the Air Raid to the NFL, lining up with 4 wide receivers on about 75% of their snaps. Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald were locked into the two slot spots, and it was Johnson and Damiere Byrd on the outside. All 4 saw at least 7 targets, and Johnson saw 10. Michael Crabtree is expected to be active this week, so it’s likely he takes one of the outside spots, but I think it’s much more likely that it’s Byrd who is pushed to the bench than Johnson. Starting CB Jimmy Smith is out for Baltimore, and their other outside corner Marlon Humphrey will likely tangle with Crabtree. That makes KeeSean an interesting option in DFS tournaments or as a flex in deep leagues. He somehow has a lower price tag than Isabella on DraftKings ($3,100). There is some risk that Crabtree cuts into Johnson’s snaps rather than Byrd’s, but it’s a risk I can live with at his price tag.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Samuel played a whopping 88% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps in week 1. I’m not quite sure what is going on with Dante Pettis. Was he limited to 2 snaps due to a flare up of his groin injury? Is he just not a starter on this team? Who knows, but it was jarring to see him behind Kendrick Bourne and Richie James in snap count this week. Deebo’s role seems safe for week 2, and with Tevin Coleman on the shelf there may be an opportunity for him to take some of the dump off targets that would normally go to Coleman. The Bengals’ secondary was shredded to the tune of a 134.6 passer rating by Russell Wilson last Sunday, and I’d expect the 49ers to have more passing volume than the Seahawks did. Samuel is in play as a flex in deeper PPR leagues.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure to check before kickoffs to make sure there aren’t any surprise inactives. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or just have a general question, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
