Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's been a roller coaster ride of a season, but we've finally arrived at championship week. Week 15 was loaded with fantasy carnage as several weekly studs turned into duds with the season on the line. Saquon Barkley, Adam Thielen and Keenan Allen are just a few of the let downs that had to be overcome. Hopefully you were able to avoid those pitfalls and made your way to the league championship game. The decisions don't get any easier this week with a lot of injury uncertainty and so few players feeling like sure things right now. I'm here to help, at least as it pertains to your rookies. Keep in mind that any players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let's dive into the matchups...
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 16: @Ind.): I'm sure most of you know better than to read too much into Barkley's worst game of the season last week...but if you're nervous about it I have some reassuring numbers. The Titans he faced last week have allowed the fewest RB fantasy points per game this season (all rankings and point totals in PPR format). The Colts are just a middling RB defense, and they've been especially vulnerable to receiving backs like Saquon. Only Atlanta has allowed more RB catches than the 100 that Indy has given up, and the Colts have also coughed up the 6th-most receiving yards to the position. Saquon should get back on track and should be started with confidence in all formats.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): Chubb should be one of the best RB plays of the week. He managed to run for 100 yards in a much tougher matchup last week. The Bengals rank just 26th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat, and they allow the 2nd-most RB points per game. Game script should also be in Chubb's favor with the Browns an 8.5-point favorite. Chubb should carry it a ton this week and is an obvious RB1 play this week.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): Lindsay has been in a bit of a funk since Emmanuel Sanders was lost for the season and defenses have been able to focus on stopping him, but I think he has a great chance to break out of that funk this week. The Raiders rank 27th in run defense DVOA and have given up the 2nd-most rushing yards to opposing RBs. Denver is a 3-point road favorite and should at least be able to keep the game script neutral or positive all day. The defense should still be keyed in on Lindsay, but he's still a solid RB2 play this week.
RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 16: @NO): It looks like James Conner will be out again, and the Steelers might also be missing JuJu Smith-Schuster as well. Samuels should be a focal point of the offense even in a less than ideal matchup. The Saints allow the 4th-fewest RB points per game, but also rank just 30th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Samuels should be able to do enough as a receiver to offset any struggles he has on the ground. He's had 12 catches in the past 3 weeks, and managed to be the RB14 last week without scoring a TD. He should be a solid RB2 and a solid bet to find the end zone in a game with the 2nd-highest over/under of the week (53).
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Like Phillip Lindsay, Michel has been in a bit of a funk. He hasn't reached 65 yards rushing or found the end zone in the past 3 weeks, and has just one catch to go along with the rushing production. The Bills aren't a pushover matchup (9th in run defense DVOA), but I still like Michel's chances to have a strong performance. The Pats are a 2-touchdown favorite, and the Bills have allowed the 10th-most RB points per game. The 15 RB rushing scores they've allowed are tied for the 2nd-most in the league. This sets up as more of a Michel week than James White week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The production has been a bit light for Mayfield over the past few weeks, but this is a good spot for him to get back on track. The Bengals have been playing improved pass defense since the return of slot corner Darqueze Dennard, but they still allow the most QB points per game in the league. They've been giving up 15.6 QB points per game in the 5 games since Dennard returned after allowing 23.4 per game prior to that, but it isn't all from better defensive play. The bigger concern for Mayfield is game script. The Bengals without Andy Dalton have struggled to stay competitive most weeks, and opponents haven't had to throw. They've faced fewer than 30 pass attempts 6 times all year, and 4 of them are in the past 5 games. That risk that the Browns stop throwing is what keeps me from saying Mayfield is a sure start. He's more of a low-end QB1 for me this week.
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): The Chargers are a tough matchup, but Lamar's running ability has given him a safe weekly floor. He's run for at least 67 yards in each of his starts, and his rushing floor is much safer than Josh Allen's since much of it comes on designed runs rather than scrambles. The Chargers rank an uninspiring 18th in run defense DVOA, and Lamar has finished between the QB9 and QB14 in every start so far. I'd expect him to be right in that same ballpark once again this week.
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 16: NE): Allen has been riding a real heater over the past 4 weeks, but I think all of us are kind of waiting for him to turn into a pumpkin. Will this be the week? Who knows. His rushing production took a pretty big dip last week, but he still did enough to end up as the QB4 for the week. He should be throwing plenty against New England. The Patriots are a 2-touchdown favorite and average 33.5 team points per game at home in Foxboro. New England has allowed the 10th-most QB points per game and has been vulnerable to moblie QBs this season. Allen should be on the QB1/QB2 borderline this week, but it will mostly depend on what he's able to do with his legs. 55% of his fantasy points in the last 4 weeks have come from rushing production. There's a lot of risk here, but Allen has come through in 4 straight.
RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): This is a bit of a riskier week for Gus Edwards. The Chargers do allow the 9th-most RB points per game, but they are much more vulnerable to receiving back than pure runners and Edwards hasn't caught a pass since week 8. The Chargers have allowed the 9th-fewest RB rushing yards, and the 3rd-most receiving yards to the position. There is a bit of a silver lining for Edwards. LA has coughed up 8 rushing scores to opposing backs in the past 5, and Gus's workload seems to be safe even with the return of Kenneth Dixon. Edwards has carried at least 16 times in every game since he took over as the lead back. He's a solid flex play, and as always a better option in non-PPR leagues.
RB Kalen Ballage, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Outside of a 75-yard TD run, Ballage tallied 11 carries for 48 yards and 1 catch for -2 last weekend. That's still over 4 yards per carry when you remove his best run of the day. That gives some reason for optimism even going into a tough matchup this week with the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed fewer that 60 RB rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games (and were shredded by Derrick Henry in the other). Workload alone puts Ballage firmly on the flex radar, but the lack of track record makes him a risky option. He'll be a sneaky DFS tournament play if he winds up being a factor in the passing game as well. I'm not sure if Kenyan Drake will still factor in there or not, but Ballage was one of the best route runners of this RB class in collge.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): As quickly as Adams became the clear lead back in Philly, he has been relegated to committee work once again. Instead of Corey Clement, it's Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles sharing the load with him. Adams hasn't caught a pass in 4 weeks and has just 22 carries total in the past 2 weeks after tallying 20 & 22 carries in the previous 2 weeks. He also is looked to be clearly less than 100% last weekend. The Eagles are leaning on the run game more with Nick Foles under center, but Adams is just a dicey flex option against a Texans defense that is allowing the 9th-fewest RB points per game.
WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): The Bears defense has been phenomenal this year, but the one fantasy position they haven't fully shut down is wide receiver. Chicago allows the 11th-most WR points per game, and Pettis has put up 13+ PPR points in 4 straight games. The targets should be there once again, making Pettis an upside WR3/flex option even against the Bears' elite defense.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 16: @Car.): Ridley is a dicey flex option this week IF Julio Jones plays. He should get a nice bump if Jones is out however. The Panthers are a plus matchup for him. Carolina ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA and allows th 9th-most WR points per game. Ridley has shown huge upside even with Julio on the field, but he's also failed to reach 50 yards or 10 PPR points in 5 of his last 7 games. I'd certainly lean towards starting him if Julio sits, but he's a boom-or-bust option as usual if Julio is out there.
WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Foster has burst onto the scene as Josh Allen has gone on his hot streak, posting 90+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games and 17+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4. The Pats have just a middling WR defense, and Foster has clearly emerged as a favorite target of Allen. I'd be tempted to call him a boom-or-bust option given his deep ball skills and the inexperience of this offense, but his production thus far has been really consistent. Foster should be a pretty solid WR3 option this week.
WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): Hamilton hasn't shown a high ceiling, but he's shown a high floor after seeing a team-high 21 targets in the last 2 weeks. Case Keenum clearly likes targeting his slot WRs, and the Raiders are just average at defending the slot even though they allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game overall. There isn't big yardage upside, but 8-10 targets are likely for Hamilton this week. That makes him an intriguing flex for deeper PPR leagues.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Herndon's 3-53 line last Saturday was his best in 3 weeks. He gets to face off with Green Bay this week. The Packers have allowed the 7th-fewest TE points per game for the season, but have allowed 6+ catches and 50+ yards to the position in 3 of their past 4, and they rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to the tight ends. Herndon is right on the cusp of being a top-10 option in the wasteland that is the tight end position.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): The Rams have allowed 10 or fewer QB points in each of the past 3 games, and in 5 of the 6 games that Aqib Talib has played in. Rosen hasn't thrown a TD pass in the last 3 games, and hasn't reached 10 points in the last 4. The Cardinals have an implied team total of just 15 points. Rosen may be the worst QB option out there this week. If you're considering starting him as a superflex out of desperation, I'd look at playing a non-QB instead.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): If Denver puts the pieces together and returns to the form they showed a few weeks back, Freeman has a chance at a decent game in garbage time. I wouldn't count on that though. Royce is no more than a TD roll of the dice in the deepest of leagues.
RB Jeff WIlson Jr., SF (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): After amassing 23 and 24 touches in the two games Matt Breida missed, Wilson dropped back to just 7 with Breida back out there in week 15. There is no tougher defense in the league than the Chicago Bears, and that means there is no reason to roll Wilson out there in any fantasy lineups as the 49ers RB2.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): The return of Melvin Gordon will render Jackson irrelevant for fantasy purposes this week, even with Austin Ekeler likely out. Jackson should see the change of pace work usually reserved for Ekeler, but the Ravens allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. If Gordon is somehow out again, Jackson would be a low-end RB2 option.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. Atl.): There may be some upside for DJ with the QB switch from Cam Newton to Taylor Heinecke, but it's a big risk to bank on that in championship week. Newton clearly hasn't been healthy in a few weeks and Heinecke could ultimately prove to be an upgrade in the short term. This is a decent matchup with the Falcons ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA, but it would take some real cojones to roll Moore out in championship week with a QB making his first career start.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): The Raiders allow the 3rd-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s, and Sutton has been out-targeted by fellow rookie DaeSean Hamilton in consecutive games since Emmanuel Sanders was injured. Sutton hasn't produced much in those two game, tallying 7-56-0 on 11 targets. He's flashed some real talent, but Keenum hasn't shown a consistent ability to deliver the ball to the perimeter. Sutton is a risky play at best outside of really deep leagues.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Gallup was targeted a whopping zero times last week in the shutout loss to Indy just a week after seeing 9 targets against Philly. That's too much volatility to have any trust in him even in a plus matchup. Tampa allows the 5th-most WR points per game, but Gallup isn't a top-40 option this week.
WRs Tre'Quan Smith & Keith Kirkwood, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Smith is the bigger name here, but Kirkwood has been the more productive receiver over the past 4 weeks with 2 TDs. Neither should be near your championship week lineups though. Kirkwood has averaged just 24 yards per game over those last 4 games, and Tre'Quan has just 2 catches for 15 yards in total in that span. The game is at home, where New Orleans' offense is much more potent, and the Steelers rank 21s in pass defense DVOA, so there is some upside in DFS formats. I'd prefer Smith if I were rolling the dice on one of them, but I'd stay far away in season-long leagues.
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Only 2 teams allow more points to opposing WR2s than the Broncos, but Ateman has averaged fewer than 30 receiving yards and has just one touchdown in the 5 games he's played. Jordy Nelson, Jared Cook and Jalen Richard are all higher in the target pecking order than Ateman. You can find the same upside without as much risk.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): In his first real action with Nick Foles at QB, Goedert did little, pulling in 2 catches for 12 yards on 2 targets. Alshon Jeffery seems to be Foles' top target, and Golden Tate was much more involved after the switch as well. The Texans have struggled to defend tight ends, allowing just under 19 PPR points per game to the position over the past 6 contests. The matchup gives a shred of hope to those of you looking at Goedert as a TD dart throw, but I'd probably steer clear and chase a Zach Ertz bounce-back instead.
TEs Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): Both players continue to cannibalize the other's fantasy upside. Andrews has consistently shown more as a receiver than Hurst, but both are poor options in championship week.
TE Tyler Conklin, MIN (Wk. 16: @Det.): Conklin's role has been increasing of late, and he did post a season-high 53 receiving yards last Sunday, but he did that on just 3 targets. The Lions have allowed just 24 TE yards per game and 1 TD to the position over the past 5 games. All Conklin is accomplishing right now is killing Kyle Rudolph's upside.
TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 16: @Phi.): The Eagles allow the 8th-fewest TE points per game, and the Texans targeted their tight end group a total of twice last week. They have a 3-man tight end rotation. There's no reason to go here in any format.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Darnold is coming off his best game of the season, and gets to face a Green Bay defense that has allowed multiple TD passes to 6 of the 7 QBs they've faced away from Lambeau. A big yardage game is unlikely as the Packers have only given up 250 or more passing yards in 5 of their 14 games on the year. Darnold hasn't shown the kind of ceiling you'd be looking for in DFS, but something in the ballpark of 225 yards and 2 or 3 TDs would certainly be servicable from a QB2 or superflex option.
RB John Kelly, LAR (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Todd Gurley's status is very much up in the air this week with the news that he hasn't run at all since last Sunday. The Rams need a win this week to help the secure a bye, but likely don't have to force Gurley into action to get one. The Rams did sign CJ Anderson this week, and a lot of media folks picked up on a comment Sean McVay made that "you can see Anderson playing a role as early as this week." I think they're reading too much into that comment. Kelly has been patiently biding his time behind Gurley, and I think it is him and not CJA who will handle the bulk of the work if Gurley is sidelined. The Cardinals allow the 4th-most RB points per game, so the upside here is huge. It would be a big leap of faith to play Kelly, but he has the skill to cash in if given the opportunity. NFL.com's Graham Barfield noted earlier this week that in college Kelly had the 3rd-most missed tackles forced per carry of any RBs to enter the league in the last 3 years behind only Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon. This could be his time to shine. Obviously make sure that Gurley is out before pulling the trigger here, and pay attention to see if McVay gives any further indications what the workload split will look like.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): This is as good a week as any to take a shot on Hines. The Giants are tied for the league-most 6 receiving TDs allowed to opposing RBs. Hines tallied 10 touches last week in the Colts' blowout win against Dallas, and Indy is a 9-point favorite this week. He's still a volatile option as long as he's playing behind Marlon Mack, but one with nice upside in DFS tournaments and in the deepest PPR leagues.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 16: @NO): With JuJu Smith Schuster popping up on the injury report mid-week, Washington suddenly looks like he could be a potential week/league-winner. JuJu suffered a groin injury in practice Thursday, and it would be Washington who would step in opposite Antonio Brown if Smith-Schuster were to sit out. Washington is coming off a season-best 3-65 performance last week, and the Saints allow more WR points than any other team in the league. The Steelers are a 6-point underdog and should be throwing more than enough to make Washington a viable WR3 or better if Smith-Schuster is out on Sunday.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have shut down opposing slot WRs since the return of Darqueze Dennard, and it'll be Jarvis Landry who squares off with him this week. That should help open things up for the Browns' outiside receivers. Breshad Perriman and Rashard Higgins are still splitting snaps on one side, and it's Callaway lining up on the other. Callaway has 50 receiving yards and/or a score in 5 of his last 7 games. He has solid upside for DFS lineups and deeper leagues.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 16: @SF): Miller has been a total non-factor of late with just 1 catch for 1 yard in his past 3 games, but the time may be right for a resurgence. Miller may be a sneaky DFS tournament option this week. The Bears' offense is one that seemingly has a different standout each week, and the 49ers allow the 6th-most points per game to opposing WRs and the 5th-most to opposing slot WRs. He's a huge risk given how little he's been involved lately, but if the Bears get him involved again it's a risk that could pay off nicely.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. ATL): Thomas is a wild card this week with Heinecke at quarterback, but inexperienced QBs have a tendency to lean on their tight ends. The Falcons ar a middling TE defense (18th-most points allowed, 15th in pass DVOA on throws to TEs), and Heinecke is a total unknown since Old Dominion was only an FBS program for one year that he was there. Thomas has been a pretty big part of the game plan since Greg Olsen was lost for the year, and that makes him at least a dart throw in the deepest of leagues and in DFS tournaments.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make he toughest decisions you've got for your lineups that involve rookies, and hopefully it helps you to a championship. Keep a very close eye on the injury report and the guys who end up inactive on game day. Some of these projections are contingent on other guys being out, and also you'll be kicking yourself if you start anyone who ends up inactive. Feel free to hit me up on twitter with any specific questions or if you want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
