Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's semifinals week! Hopefully you had a bye and were able to avoid having to deal with the bizarre week 14 results to get to your semis. If you had any Rams, Kenny Golladay, Kirk Cousins, Cam Newton, Mitch Trubisky, Corey Davis, Chris Godwin, Golden Tate, Marquise Goodwin, or went up against Derrick Henry or George Kittle...hopefully you still found a way to claw your way to victory. Here's hoping week 15 gets back to normal a little bit. The lineup decisions this week are just as critical, so I'm still going to do my best to give you sound advice on what rookies can help you through to the championship. Note that the comments on Justin Jackson and Darrel Williams were written Thursday. Check the @drinkfive twitter feed for receipts on that. Let's dive in...
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Ten.): Of course you don't need my help on what to do with Saquon in season-long leagues, but I have a few tidbits for you DFS players. This isn't an ideal matchup for Barkley, so he might not be the chalk play in DFS, but the Titans have shown cracks in their run defense of late. 3 of their 4 worst performances against opposing RBs have come in the past 4 games, and Saquon has posted 4 straight 100-yard rushing performances.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): The Browns have been coughing up the 7th-most running back points per game (all ranks and point totals are in PPR scoring format), and they rank 26th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat. Lindsay had a disappointing performance in week 14 against San Francisco, but still finished as the RB17 for the week with 15.1 PPR points. He's scored 8 touchdowns in his last 7 games, and has the kind of week-winning upside that you can't leave on your bench.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): The Broncos have been solid against RBs, ranking 11th in run defense DVOA, but Chubb has been remarkably consistent since taking over as the lead back in Cleveland. He's posted 14+ PPR points in 6 of his 7 starts, and found the end zone in all 6 of those as well (5 straight games with a score). His receiving usage is also trending in the right direction, and the Broncos rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Chubb is a solid RB2 this week.
RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. NE): This is fully contingent on James Conner missing another week...if Conner plays, you sit Samuels. If Samuels starts, he should be heavily involved in the passing game against a defense that ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs, and is just a middle of the pack defense against RBs overall. The possible absence of Ryan Switzer should make Samuels an even bigger part of the short passing game. He'll be a top-20 option if Conner is out again. Keep a close eye on the injury report on this one.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 15: @KC): Jackson disappointed many fantasy owners in week 14 after playing second fiddle to Austin Ekeler and managing a paltry 12 rushing yards on 7 carries. Ekeler is out of the way this week, and Jackson is poised for a breakout game against a Chiefs' defense that is coughing up the 2nd-most PPR points per game to RBs. The Chiefs' biggest problem has been limiting receiving production from the position. Only 2 teams have allowed more than the 85 receptions to RBs that KC has given up, and no one has given up more than the 831 receiving yards KC has surrendered to them. Jackson has the receiving skills to capitalize. He's caught 5-of-5 targets on the year for 61 yards, and while that's a small sample size, he caught 79 passes over his final two college seasons at Northwestern. Justin should be a surefire top-20 RB this week with week-winning upside. If you have him, you should probably be starting him. (Update: Jackson posted 16-58-1 on the ground and 3-27 receiving for 17.5 PPR points Thursday night)
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. NO): Moore's production has been a little uneven, but his usage has not. He's been targeted at least 8 times in 4 straight games and this week faces the defense that allows the most points per game to WRs. The Panthers will likely be throwing as a 6-point underdog, and Moore should be a high-floor WR3 in a game where the Panthers' season is pretty much on the line.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): The Bucs have been playing improved defense of late, allowing just 13 points per game to opposing QBs over their past 5 games, but 4 of those contests were at home. The road hasn't been nearly as kind to Tampa. Eli Manning is the only QB that has failed to top 20 points when hosting the Bucs. Jackson has a solid rushing floor that should give him a good chance to keep Eli on that island. Jackson is a low-end QB1 option with upside if he can ever have a productive passing game to go with his rushing.
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): Mayfield has been in a mini-slump for fantasy purposes with just 1 TD pass in each of the last 2 games after posting multiple scores in the 5 games prior. The Broncos have been solid against QBs, allowing the 12th-fewest QB points per game and allowing only 3 QBs all year to reach 20 points, but they've been struggling of late. Since their bye in week 10, the Broncos have given up an average of 355 passing yards per game and won't have their star slot corner Chris Harris Jr. in this one. Mayfield is still a dicey QB1 option, but he should be solid as a QB2 or superflex.
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): Detroit has had one of the worst pass defenses in the league, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA. Allen has posted some impressive numbers as a runner in the past 3 weeks, helping him finish as the QB4, QB2, and QB15. He ran for at least 99 yards in each game, but I'm not sure he keeps it up this week. No team has allowed fewer QB rushing yards than the 62 Detroit has given up. They've faced Cam Newton (2 rush yards), Russell Wilson (15 yards) Dak Prescott (2 yards) and Mitch Trubisky (18 yards). Allen will likely need to increase his passing production to be useful in fantasy this week. I'm not sure he'll do that. Allen has thrown for multiple TDs just once all year, and is yet to throw for 250 yards in a game. He's shown enough upside in the past 3 weeks to be considered a low-end QB1 option in deeper leagues, but I would be really hesitant to pull the trigger this week.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr., SF (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Keep an eye on the injury status of Matt Breida if you're thinking of playing Wilson. Breida has to sit for Wilson to be a viable option. Wilson has handled 47 touches in the past 2 weeks with Breida sidelined, and Seattle's defense is solid but unspectacular against opposing RBs. They allow the 11th-most RB points per game. As long as Breida is out again, Wilson should be a solid flex option with a strong floor. His receiving production dipped last week, but that was because the 49ers played with a lead for most of the game. I wouldn't expect a repeat of that in week 15.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Michel's workload has remained solid even with the return of Rex Burkhead. He's had 37 carries in the past 2 games with Burkhead back, but my concern is that his receiving usage has been non-existent. His targets in the last 3 weeks have been 2, 1, and zero. This week he faces a Steelers defense that allows the 6th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 7th in run defense DVOA. New England is favored on the road, so the game script should be positive, and the game has one of the higher over/unders of the week at 52, so there should be scoring opportunities for Michel. The lack of passing game usage still has me concerned enough to not claim Michel is an automatic start in this tougher matchup. He's still a viable option, just temper your expectations.
RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Speaking of guys who don't get much receiving work, Gus Edwards has one target all year, and is now dealing with a bit of a challenge for work from Kenneth Dixon. Dixon posted 59 yards on 8 rushes last week and vultured a TD from Edwards at the goal line. Edwards still appears to be the lead back, but the 16 carries he handled last week were the fewest he's seen since taking over as the starter. That usage still puts him in the flex conversation against the Bucs. Tampa ranks 30th in run defense DVOA, and allows 21.1 points per game to opposing RB1s. Dixon's increasing usage worries me a bit, but if you're a gambler Edwards could pay off big.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 15: @LAR): Philly should lean on the run a bit more going forward since it looks like Carson Wentz will miss the remainder of the season with a back injury. Corey Clement went on IR this week, thinning out the Eagles' backfield a little more, so Adams should continue to get plenty of work. The biggest concern here is game script. The Rams are an 11-point favorite, and outside of week 11 when he was targeted 6 times, Adams has just 2 targets all year. If the Eagles can keep this game tight, Adams could do good things. The Rams rank just 24th in run defense DVOA. Adams has value as an RB3/flex option this week, but he's risky.
WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Pettis popped up on the injury report with a foot injury on Friday, but I'd still expect him to play this week. The 49ers have been dealing with a bunch of WR injuries, which have opened the door for Pettis to play a bunch. He's been targeted 7 times in 3 straight games, posting a line of 12-255-4 in those games. Marquise Goodwin also popped up on the injury report Friday. If Pettis plays and Goodwin doesn't, Pettis would be the de facto WR1. The Seahawks allow the 3rd-most points per game to opposing WR1s. Even if Goodwin plays, Pettis is an intriguing WR3 option who has shown a clear connection with Nick Mullens.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Sutton was a big letdown last week in his first game without Emmanuel Sanders on the field, but he should be in a good spot for a bounce back this week. Browns allow the 10th-most WR points per game, and almost half of the points they allow go to the opposing team's WR1 (19 out of 39.5). Sutton is a WR3/flex option in leagues with 12 or more teams.
WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): Foster has quickly emerged as the best fantasy WR option in Buffalo. That's not really saying much, but he's cleared 90 receiving yards in 3 of his past 4 games and had a season-high 8 targets last week. With Zay Jones only in the slot about half the time, Jones should share the attention of Lions top corner Darius Slay with Foster. Even with Slay, the Lions pass defense has been no bueno. Detroit ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, 24th on throws to the opposing WR1 and 30th on throws to the WR2. Foster could be in line for another strong game, especially if the Lions are able to keep Josh Allen from running on them.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. NO): The Saints are one of the toughest matchups possible to a tight end, but Thomas has been targeted 16 times in the past 2 weeks and the TE position has been a bit of a wasteland this season. I'd play him over any other rookie TE and would start him over other borderline guys CJ Uzomah, Cameron Brate, and Austin Hooper.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Darnold's return to action went about as well as expected last week. He posted 170 yards with one score and one pick. He hasn't shown enough upside to be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. Darnold has topped 230 yards passing just twice in 10 starts, has thrown for multiple TDs in just 3 of them, and has thrown 15 interceptions on the year. Houston allows the 11th-fewest QB points per game and is tied for 8th in the league with 13 interceptions. I'm not sure I'd trust Darnold as a desperation QB2.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 15: @SF): Penny's role is to split the scraps that Chris Carson leaves behind with Mike Davis. That isn't a role you can trust in the fantasy playoffs. The 49ers allow just 7.4 PPR points per game to opposing RB2s. There is some upside for a cheap DFS tournament play, but he won't be in any of my lineups.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Freeman is no more than a TD dart throw at this point, and Cleveland allows less than 6 points per game to opposing RB2s. He's scored just 2 TDs in his past 7 games, and reached 40 rushing yards just once in that span.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Hines has scored more than 7 points just twice in the past 8 games, and the Cowboys allow just 6 PPR points per game to opposing RB2s. Hines isn't a smart bet if you're taking a chance in a DFS tournament or a really deep league.
RB Darrel Williams, KC (Wk. 15: vs. LAC): I'd be excited to see what Williams can do tonight with Spencer Ware sidelined, but I'm not convinced the Chiefs will give him the opportunity after they signed the Charknado, Charcandrick West last week. West is a player that has played for Andy Reid and the Chiefs in the past and will likely leapfrog Williams on the depth chart. Damien Williams will be the number one back for KC Thursday, and it will likely be West serving as his primary backup. Darrel Williams was stuck behind Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice at LSU, yet he still managed to post better receiving numbers and more yards per carry than Guice last year. Keep an eye on his usage against the Chargers, but there's no reason to put him in your starting lineup in any format. (Update: Darrel Williams posted 2-13 on the ground and 2-19-1 receiving for 11.2 PPR points)
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): The Cardinals have actually been one of the better WR defenses in the league, and they've really only been burned by WR1s. Ridley has been a boom or bust option weekly, with fewer than 10 points or more than 16 in each and every game this year. He's scored a TD in just two of the past 9 games, and this is looking like a bust week again. Julio should be a fantastic option, but Ridley is a risky flex in deep leagues at best. The Cardinals allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 15: @Den.): Callaway gets a reasonable matchup this week with the Broncos allowing the 3rd-most points per game to opposing WR2s, but he isn't getting enough run lately to take advantage. Callaway has run 17 or fewer routes in 3 of his past 4 games and didn't make it to 3 targets in 2 of them. The Browns will benefit from not having to face Chris Harris Jr. in the slot, but Callaway plays almost exclusively on the perimeter. I'd stay away this week.
WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Hamilton could be fun in a Saturday-only DFS slate, but I'd be hard-pressed to play him in the fantasy playoffs. He had a nice game a week ago, but he has just a one-game track record and the Browns allow just 11 points per game to the slot. Sutton is a much better play than Hamilton this week.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Gallup's role has been much more defined since the Amari Cooper trade and his usage has actually increased with Coop on board, but his production hasn't really followed suit. He's averaged nearly 7 targets per game over the past 4, but averaging just 3 catches and 32 yards in that span. The Colts allow just the 6th-fewest WR points per game. This isn't a week to take a chance on Gallup.
WRs Equanimeous St. Brown & Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 15: @Chi.): The Bears boast the best overall defense in the league, and Randall Cobb has regained his spot as the WR2 in Green Bay. Cobb played 44 snaps in week 14 compared to 34 for St. Brown and 30 for Valdes-Scantling. This was actually the first time that St. Brown out-snapped Valdes-Scantling all year. If you really want to roll the dice on one of these two guys, my choice would be MVS, but I wouldn't recommend using either.
WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 15: @Car.): This is a great matchup for Smith, but he's been a ghost most weeks lately. Smith has posted 3 goose eggs in his last 4 games (10-157-1 in the other). He's an intereting cheap DFS option, but it would take a massive leap of faith knowing you could very easily get a zero from him. The Panthers do rank dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR2.
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 15: @Cin.): The Bengals are actually favored in this game, so the Raiders should be throwing, but Ateman hasn't topped 50 yards in a game all year and has had more than 5 targets just once in the last 4 games. The Bengals aren't a good defense, but Ateman is just too risky to trust this week.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Don't get cute here. Ryan Switzer is questionable this week, and that could lead to additional playing time for Washington, but we've seen him play increased snaps before. It hasn't resulted in increased production. Washington hasn't topped 25 receiving yards in any game this year. You'd be crazy to count on him having the best week of his season in your fantasy playoffs.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 15: @LAR): Goedert nearly had his best game of the season last week. He had a long receiving TD wiped out by a bogus offensive pass interference penalty and was still the TE8 for the week. The QB change to Nick Foles changes things for this offense though. We don't have much to go off of since Goedert has only played with Foles for two games...the first two of his career. Goedert's role has grown since then. There is a bigger sample size to look at last season with Foles. Philly's TE2 last year, Trey Burton, totaled just 4-36 on 8 targets in the 6 Foles starts last season. Goedert remains a TD dart throw, but one that I don't feel great about with Wentz sidelined.
TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 15: @NYJ): The return of Ryan Griffin makes the Texans' TE usage even messier than it was before. All 3 TEs were able to get involved last weekend, with Akins and Thomas combining for 6-71 while Griffin posted a 5-80 line. The matchup this weekend isn't nearly as giving to TEs. The Jets allow the 5th-fewest TE points per game and rank 11th in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. I'd steer clear of the whole trio this week.
TEs Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): If I had any faith that the Ravens would use one of these guys as their primary TE, I'd feel good about playing them in this matchup. After seeing Maxx Williams score an unexpected TD last week, I don't feel good about predicting anything with this TE group. The Bucs rank 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends, but your guess is as good as mine on which TE will benefit from that. I can't trust any of them in the fantasy playoffs this week.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 15: @Atl.): Rosen's rookie year could be kindly called forgettable so far. He's reached double-digit fantasy points just twice in his last 8 games and hasn't thrown a TD pass in the last 2 weeks, but I like his chances for a surprising week. I expect him to reach double-digits for the 3rd time in 9 games. Atlanta has allowed at least 14.8 QB points in every game after week 1, and they rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Rosen would be a sneaky play if you're in a tough spot at QB2. He should have one of his best games of the season.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): The Cardinals have spent much of this season playing from behind and have surrendered plenty of points to opposing RBs. They've been down enough that the number 2 backs frequently get in on the act, allowing 10.6 PPR points per game to the opposing RB2s. The Falcons are 8.5-point favorites this week, and Ito actually out-touched Tevin Coleman last week. Smith had his best game since week 9 last Sunday, and I think there is a pretty good chance he tops what he did last week in this one. The Cardinals allow the 4th-most RB points per game.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Miller is mostly a TD dart throw, but he may be a pretty good dart throw this week. The Packers allow the 4th-most WR points per game, and the 5th-most points per game out of the slot where Miller plays 67% of his snaps. He's had just 10 targets and totaled 6-67 in the last 4 games, but he's found the end zone twice in those games. He's scored in 6 of the 12 games he's played. If you're desperate, you could do worse than a coin flip bet for a TD against a bad defense.
WR DeAndre Carter, HOU (Wk. 15: @NYJ): Carter isn't a well-known name, but he's probably my favorite sleeper for the 2-game Saturday DFS slate. Keke Coutee has been ruled out for this game, and Carter is expected to be cleared to play. No team allows more points per game to opposing slot WRs than the Jets. Carter shouldn't be considered in season-long leagues, but he has a bunch of upside in a strong matchup if you're looking for a bargain basement WR in DFS.
WR Trent Sherfield, ARI (Wk. 15: @Atl.): Sherfield posted 5-77 on 7 targets out of the blue last week. He's clearly going to be involved going forward with Christian Kirk on IR. Atlanta ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA, and the Cardinals should be throwing as 8.5-point underdogs. He's too risky to try in season-long leagues, but is another name to know as a cheap DFS option this week.
TE Anthony Firkser, TEN (Wk. 15: @NYG): Firkser isn't technically a rookie after spending last year on a practice squad, but I wanted to mention him since casual fans don't know who he is. Firkser finally gives Ryan Fitzpatrick company as a Harvard alum playing in the NFL. He's managed to haul in at least 3 catches in 4 straight games, and topped 40 receiving yards in 3 of them. Jonnu Smith, who was starting ahead of Firkser was put on IR earlier this week. This should be the first game all year where Firkser is the unquestioned TE1, and the Giants rank 24th in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. Firkser is a low-end fantasy TE1 this week.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Herndon's production has been down over the past couple weeks and Darnold's return last week didn't do anything to help, but this week's matchup is a good one. The Texans allow the 9th-most TE points per game on the year, and in the past 5 games they've given up 65+ yards and a score to the position 4 times. Herndon is more of a TE2 than TE1 for fantasy, but I like his chances to post his best game in weeks.
TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 15: @Car.): Arnold was a surprising healthy scratch last Sunday. I'm not sure if it was a disciplinary thing or what happened, but the matchup this week is juicy if he's active. The Panthers allow the 3rd-most TE points per game and Ben Watson hasn't exactly been a factor in the Saints' passing attack. If Arnold is active, he could be worth a swing in DFS tournaments.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies and helps you into your league championship. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, please feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure not to start anyone inactive. You'd hate to put up an unnecessary goose egg with your season on the line. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
