Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve found our way to the fantasy playoffs…man did this season fly by. Hopefully your teams are still alive and kicking, and if they are, you’ve probably gotten some help from a rookie along the way. Each week more rookies have put their imprint on this season and the list of useful first year guys continues to grow. In week 13 it was Justin Jackson, Dante Pettis and Jeff Wilson Jr busting onto the scene. These one-week studs can be hard to trust with your season on the line this week, but the Rookie Report is here to help you sort it all out. Keep in mind that any players at the same position and under the same header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let’s take a look at what to expect in week 14…
Rookies to Start:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Mayfield has been playing at a high level over the last month plus, and the Panthers have been scuffling in a big way. Baker’s final stat line wasn’t pretty last week, but he had a strong second half after an abysmal first. Carolina has been giving up 23.5 points per game to opposing QBs over the past 5 games, and have let 4 of them reach 22 or more (all point totals and rankings are in PPR scoring format). The Panthers have allowed the 6th-most QB points per game on the year, and rank just 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. I’d expect Mayfield to finish the week as a top-10 performer at the position.
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 14: @Was.): As usual, you don’t need me to tell you to start Barkley. He should be a chalk play in DFS cash games this week as well. All you really need to know is that the 4-win Giants area 3.5-point favorite on the road. Washington is in shambles right now and Saquon should run wild on them.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Lindsay has scored in double-digits in every game this season that he wasn’t ejected from, but he’s really hit his stride lately. He’s been averaging 19.5 fantasy points over the past 6 games with 7 rushing scores in that span, and his top 2 rushing yardage totals of the year came in the past two weeks. The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites this week on the road against the 49ers, so game script should keep Lindsay running, and running well. You can’t sit him this week.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): I was tempted to list Chubb as a borderline option this week due to the tough matchup, but couldn’t bring myself to do it. His use as a receiver has kept him useful even when he hasn’t had big rushing days. The Panthers allow the 5th fewest RB points per game and rank 8th in run defense DVOA, but Chubb has had just one game outside the top-20 RBs since becoming the unquestioned starter in Cleveland. The upside is too good to leave sidelined.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 14: @Mia.): The Pats are heavy favorites in Miami this weekend, and the Dolphins have coughed up the 7th-most RB points per game on the year. The return of Rex Burkhead might limit Michel’s upside just a bit, but he still handled 17 carries last Sunday with the Patriots up most of the day. If the workload is similar this week, and it should be, the Georgia alum should have a strong RB2 finish.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): This will be an interesting week for Jackson. Kansas City has allowed the 5th-most QB points per game on the year, but they rank a passable 13th in pass defense DVOA and Lamar hasn’t reached 180 passing yards in any of his 3 starts and has just 1 passing TD total in those games. His rushing yards give him a solid weekly floor, especially with the Chiefs ranking dead last in run defense DVOA, but he’ll need a more productive passing day than he’s had so far to hit his ceiling. He’s a risky QB1 streamer in deeper leagues, but a solid QB2.
RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): As I just mentioned above, the Chiefs rank dead last in the league in run defense DVOA. Edwards provides nothing in the passing game and the Chiefs are a TD-favorite, but the Ravens with Lamar Jackson under center aren’t going to abandon the run game even if they fall behind. With 61 carries and 315 rushing yards in the last 3 weeks, Edwards should be a high-floor flex play this week who will pleasantly surprise if he finds the end zone. He remains a better play in non-PPR formats.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 14: @Dal.): The workhorse usage continued for Adams in week 13, his second straight game with 20+ carries, but like Gus Edwards he’s been a non-factor in the passing game. Dallas is a tough matchup, ranking 6th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 8th-fewest RB points per game. He’s still in play as a flex option, but I’d be hopeful I have better options at the RB1 and RB2 spots.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Cin.): Jackson became fantasy relevant at just the right time to showcase his skills. There aren’t many matchups better than the one he faces this week. Melvin Gordon will be sidelined again, and Jackson was far more effective last week than Austin Ekeler has been in a lead back role. Coach Anthony Lynn claimed Ekeler is worn down at this point of the season, and hinted that Jackson would have a bigger role moving forward until Gordon returns. Cincy ranks 28th in run defense DVOA, and has allowed more RB fantasy points per game than any other team. In the past 7 games, the Bengals have given up 145 rushing yards per game to RBs along with 11 rushing TDs. There’s risk here since we don’t really know how the split will look between Jackson and Ekeler, but Jackson has the upside to finish the week as a top-10 back.
RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 14: @Oak.): Samuels should have a big opportunity this week with James Connor out, but head coach Mike Tomlin has stated it will be a running back by committee game plan with Samuels and vet Stevan Ridley. Samuels is more likely to catch passes than Ridley, but Ryan Switzer may also pick up some of the dump offs vacated by Conner. The Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA, but only the Vikings run the ball on a lower percentage of their offensive plays than the Steelers. Overall, Samuels makes for an intriguing flex option with plenty of PPR upside, but I think he’s riskier than Jackson this week.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Somehow Cleveland ranks an impressive 4th in pass defense DVOA, but still allows the 8th-most WR points per game. Although his production has been a little uneven, Moore’s usage has been consistent. He’s been targeted at least 8 times in each of the past 3 games. With Greg Olsen done for the year, Moore and Christian McCaffrey are the two focal points of this passing game. Moore is a solid WR3 this week.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): With the news Wednesday night that Emmanuel Sanders is done for the year with an Achilles tear, Sutton suddenly becomes the de facto WR1 in Denver. He’s posted 78+ receiving yards in each of his past 3 road games, and saw a career-high 7 targets last Sunday before Sanders was hurt. The 49ers rank 26th in pass defense DVOA. He’s a safe bet for 7+ targets again this week and should be a legitimate WR3 play this week even in this lackluster passing attack.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): There isn’t much to say about Ridley except that he’s going to be a boom or bust option once again this week. He lives on the WR3 borderline. Green Bay has been mediocre against WRs, allowing the 9th-most points per game to the position, and this one feels like it could be a shootout between 2 teams mired in disappointing seasons. Keep an eye on the weather report for this one. If it’s going to be bitter cold, I’d probably shy away from Ridley a bit, but his usual upside is there.
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): In the last 4 road games that Smith has started in, he has totaled 6 catches for 62 yards with zero scores. That’s not exactly impressive, but I like his chances to have his best road game of the season this week. Tampa allows the 3rd-most WR points per game and ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. The Saints’ passing attack will be looking to get right this week after laying an egg in Dallas last Thursday, and the Bucs are as good a matchup to do that against as any. Smith should be closer to full health after being a non-factor last week. Tre’Quan remains risky, but he’s a fun option if you’re feeling lucky.
TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): If you’re scrounging the waiver wire this week for a TE (Olsen owner, worried about questionable tag on Ebron, not enthused about Brate, Burton, or Hooper), Andrews is worth a look this week. He’s quietly posted 121 receiving yards in the last 2 weeks with Lamar Jackson at QB, and Kansas City allows more TE points per game than any other team. They’ve given up 85+ receiving yards to TEs in 6 of their 12 contests, and have given up 30+ fantasy points and multiple scores to tight ends in each of the last 2 games. The floor is low, but Andrews seems to have emerged as the top TE target in Baltimore and has as good a matchup as possible.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): The matchup with the Lions is an OK one for Rosen. The Lions have given up an average of 2 passing TDs per week, but the volume just isn’t there for Rosen to be useful, and he just lost his most productive receiver to injured reserve (Christian Kirk). The Lions have held 6 of the 12 QBs they’ve faced to 230 or fewer passing yards. I’d expect Rosen to make it 7 of 13.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Darnold will likely return to the starting role this week, but this is not the matchup to roll the dice on him. The Bills rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and no team in the league has allowed fewer QB fantasy points. Just one QB they’ve faced in their past 10 games has topped 15 points, and 6 of them were held to 10 or fewer.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 14: @Ari.): At 4-8, the Lions have no reason to rush Kerryon back into action. He’s currently listed as doubtful, so it’s probably a moot point to even list him here. If he is active, I’d expect the Lions to really limit his playing time. I’d avoid him this week.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): Penny has made the most of limited opportunities in recent weeks with 223 rushing yards on 31 carries in the past 4 weeks, but the Vikings are stingy against the run and rank 9th in run defense DVOA. I’d have some interest in Penny as a sleeper if he were being used as a receiver, but he has zero targets in those 4 games. The Vikings do rank 31st in pass defense DVOA on throws to backs. There just isn’t enough upside in Penny to take a shot this week.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Hines was targeted a surprising 9 times last week and caught all of them, but I’d be stunned if that happens again. His usage remains wildly inconsistent, and the Texans rank 1st in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs. Hines provides little in the run game, and needs to make a splash as a receiver to be useful. This isn’t a great spot to bet on him doing that.
RB Chase Edmonds, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Don’t expect a repeat of the game Edmonds posted in week 13. He saw just 5 carries to 20 for David Johnson. I would expect a similar split this week…I just wouldn’t expect Edmonds to be as efficient with those limited touches this week.
WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Pettis had a blowup game last weekend, but the Broncos have a strong pass defense. They rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA, and Marquise Goodwin should be back this week. The 49ers should be passing plenty, so Pettis is worth consideration in deeper leagues, but for most formats there’s too much at stake to count on a repeat performance by Pettis.
WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): There may be some upside here, but your guess is as good as mine when it comes to which guy will make good on that upside. The Falcons rank an abysmal 31st in pass defense DVOA, but have been mostly burned by RBs and TEs. I’d expect a lot of Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham this week. ESB and MVS are both too risky to roll with in the fantasy playoffs.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): The Colts allow the 5th-fewest WR points in the league, and Coutee is battling his 3rd hamstring injury of the season. It kept him out of last week’s game against Cleveland, and even if he’s able to play this week he’ll likely be the 3rd option in the passing attack behind Nuk Hopkins and DT.
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): With Jordy Nelson back at full strength, Ateman’s opportunity pretty much dried up. The Raiders would be smart to let the youngster get some valuable experience in a lost season, but it looks unlikely that Gruden will allow that. You can’t trust Ateman in any format this week.
WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The return of Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder should render Quinn irrelevant even if he is able to play this week. That duo will handle the majority of the targets that Quinn can compete for. It’s also hard to count on any passing game target in an offense that is quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): The Bills rank 2nd in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. They’ve given up fewer than 2 TE points four times, and fewer than 9 points seven times. Herndon’s had some nice games along the way, but I wouldn’t want to bank on him finding the end zone in Darnold’s first game back on the field.
TE Jordan Thomas, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Thomas is a TD dart throw facing a team that has given up 3 tight end scores all year. Thomas has been a pretty good TD bet lately, catching 4 of them in his past 5 games, but he’s posted just 16.8 total points in the 8 games he didn’t find the end zone. A goose egg would be tough to swallow in a playoff game.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Allen has a consistently low floor, but he’s shown the upside with his running ability over the past few weeks. The removal of Kelvin Benjamin could be addition by subtraction for the Bills’ pass attack. The Jets have allowed 5 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced to reach 20 fantasy points, and another made it to 19. Allen is a decent QB2 streamer in a solid matchup.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr., SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Wilson caught 8 passes in his first meaningful game action of the season, and he should see more work going forward. Matt Breida is out this week, and the Broncos rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing RBs. He should be in play as a flex option in PPR formats. I’d expect Alf Morris to be active and be part of the game plan, but Wilson will be the better fantasy option of the 2.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): If you’re desperate at RB, you could do worse than take a shot on Freeman finding the end zone this week. He’s found the end zone in half of the games he’s played this season, and the Broncos should be able to control this game or at least keep the game script neutral. The Niners are just a middling run defense, ranking 16th in run defense DVOA.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): This is the first time in 4 weeks that Smith actually has a decent matchup after squaring off against the Cowboys, Saints and Ravens over the past 3 weeks. This week he faces the Packers, who rank 27th in run defense DVOA. Smith hasn’t exactly gotten a lot of run with 17 carries and 5 targets in his past 3 games, but Tevin Coleman hasn’t gotten that much more with 22 carries and 10 targets in that span. Smith is only really in play in the deepest of leagues, but I expect him to have the best game he’s had in over a month.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Callaway’s turnaround since the first half of the season has been stark. In the first 6 games of the year, he caught just 15 of 40 targets for 186 yards and 1 TD. In the past 6, he went 18-186-2 on just 26 targets. The volume hasn’t been great, but the efficiency has been solid. The targets will come if he continues to play this well. Carolina has allowed the 6th-most WR points per game, and I’m confident Callaway will see 6+ targets in this one. A WR4 week is a realistic hope for the rookie in this one.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. LAR): It appears likely that the Bears will get Mitch Trubisky back this week, and the Rams have struggled to contain ancillary receivers this season. They rank 27th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs other than the #1 or #2 guy (A-Rob & Gabriel). The Bears love to spread the ball around a bit, so Miller is a volatile option, but the upside is there for deeper leagues.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 14: vs. Phi.): Gallup finally seems to have emerged as the clear WR2 in Dallas after seeing inconsistent targets and playing time for much of the year. The Amari Cooper trade seems to have crystallized the receiver depth chart. Cooper will continue to be the lead guy, but Gallup showed last Thursday he has some upside as well. The Eagles allow the 2nd-most WR points per game and rank 27th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #2 WR. Cooper is still the obvious play here, but Gallup is intriguing against the banged up Eagles’ secondary as well.
WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The Jets have allowed the 4th-most WR points per game and rank just 18th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. The deep ball is Foster’s bread and butter. His target share should increase with Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes kicked to the curb. He’s worth a stash in deeper dynasty leagues, and is worth looking at as a punt play in DFS tournaments.
WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Hamilton is more of a stash than anything at this point. With Emmanuel Sanders done for the year (and possibly part of next year), Hamilton should be on the field a lot more going forward. The Broncos have a low volume passing attack, so it would make sense to take a wait-and-see approach to figure out how the targets break down going forward.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Thomas managed to pull in 5 catches after Greg Olsen got hurt last weekend, and the Browns allow the 6th-most TE points per game. Tight ends are averaging 75 yards per game with 4 TDs against Cleveland in the past 4 games. We saw Thomas as a starter earlier this season when Olsen was hurt, and his production was underwhelming, but there’s a chance he’s more useful in this go-round. He’s worth consideration as a bargain basement DFS option.
TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): The Buccaneers have given up 9 or more TE points in 11 of their 12 games this season. Arnold has been ascending over the past few weeks. Ben Watson has gone 2-21 on just 4 targets over the past 4 weeks while Arnold has gone 10-115-1 on 13 targets in that same span. Arnold is the guy to take a shot on here if you’re going to target the Bucs porous TE defense.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week to make sure your guys are playing. The last thing you want this week is to put up a goose egg from a player because you forgot to check his status on game day. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
