Trends are a topic that I like to get into once the football season has had enough time to let them develop properly. Looking back on the past few weeks can tell us a lot about the future fantasy production of players, in some cases. I've selected 2 players each from QB/RB/WR positions to take a look at what direction I think they are headed in for the last half of the season. Those players trending up can also be seen as good targets to try and acquire before the trade deadline in your league(s). Percentage owned is taken from Yahoo as of 10/24/18.
QB
Russell Wilson (92% owned, #22 QB, 104.52 fantasy pts total)
Week 4 @ARI (19/26, 172 yds, 0 TD, 8.98 pts)
Week 5 LAR (13/21, 198 yds, 3 TDs, 19.92 pts)
Week 6 @OAK (17/23, 222 yds, 3 TDs, 21.88 pts)
- A rough start for the former QB1 in fantasy, but just rested through a bye week and now with Doug Baldwin healthy and performing (6/8, 91 yds in Week 6), Tyler Lockett locked in as the WR2, and a 3-headed rushing attack that is starting to come together, we could see Wilson come back to life in the 2nd half of the season. In Week 8 he goes up against a Detroit passing defense that has allowed 8 TDs over the past 3 games. Russell Wilson should continue to pick up speed over the next few weeks and come close to his initial value as a top QB to own and start in fantasy.
Mitchell Trubisky (66% owned, #8 QB, 142.26 fantasy pts total)
Week 4 TB (19/26, 354 yds, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 43.46 pts)
Week 6 @MIA (22/31, 316 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 28.34 pts)
Week 7 NE (26/50, 333 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 33.42 pts)
- Trubisky has been an exceptional fantasy QB over the last 3 games that he has played, no question about it. The real question is whether or not these point totals are sustainable and if we should be worried about the rising trend of interceptions juxtaposed with the falling TDs. Both TB (#1) and NE (#7) are in the top 10 worst passing defenses in the league. He faces the Jets in Week 8, a middle of the road passing defense. I'm concerned about the trend above of less TDs and more INTs, but Trubisky is locked-in as a starting QB now in fantasy until he proves otherwise. He is definitely a SELL for me though, if you have another good option it may be worth it to find a trade partner before he comes back down to Earth.
RB
David Johnson (100% owned, #11 RB, 82.10 fantasy pts total)
Week 5 @SF (18/55 rush/yds, 2 TDs, 2/16 rec/yds, 19.10 pts)
Week 6 @MIN (18/54 rush/yds, 1 TD, 2/15 rec/yds, 10.90 pts)
Week 7 DEN (14/39 rush/yds, 3/31 rec/yds, 7.00 pts)
- At first glance, #11 RB isn’t so bad, but it is for David Johnson. Drafted top 3 for the past few years, Johnson enjoyed much success with former coach Bruce Arians calling the shots in Arizona. Johnson also had a seasoned QB under center. He may be able to break the top 10 and start performing at a high level again with the firing of OC Mike McCoy and switch to one of Arians’ pupils, Byron Leftwich, taking over offensive play calling duties. David Johnson faces a porous opponent Week 8 in the 49ers, who are currently the 7th worst rushing defense, allowing just under 100 yards and 1 TD per game on average. Things should turn around immediately for Johnson and get even better after the Cardinals' bye week. This is likely the lowest that David Johnson's value will be for the next few years.
Latavius Murray (79% owned, #24 RB, 60.70 fantasy pts total)
Week 5 @PHI (11/42 rush/yds, 2/14 rec/yds, 5.6 pts)
Week 6 ARI (24/155 rush/yds, 1 TD, 1/3 rec/yds, 21.80 pts)
Week 7 @NYJ (15/69 rush/yds, 2 TDs, 2/14 rec/yds, 20.30 pts)
- The latest news on Dalvin Cook is that he will be out through the Vikings’ Week 10 bye. That means Murray has at least two more weeks to lead the backfield, and he has been impressing with good consistency over the past couple of games. Week 8’s opponent, the New Orleans Saints, have been great against the run (no one has gone over 80 yards against them) but Murray will still have some opportunities at the goal-line to collect fantasy points and then faces up against a generous Lions’ rushing defense. With bye weeks and injuries hitting now over the middle of the season, Murray is an excellent play until Cook gets healthy enough to return.
WR
Emmanuel Sanders (96% owned, #3 WR, 94.72 fantasy pts total)
Week 5 @NYJ (9/72 rec/yds, 7.20 pts)
Week 6 LAR (7/115 rec/yds, 1 TD, 17.50 pts)
Week 7 @ARI (6/102 rec/yds, 1 TD, 21.32 pts)
- Sanders was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week in Week 7, and he has clearly been the best WR on the Broncos this season. In fact, he is sitting right at #3 among all WRs in fantasy points so far in standard leagues. There was some concern over his ankle injury late in the game against the Cardinals, but he has since been removed from the injury report and should be good to go against the Chiefs in Week 8 who are giving up a ton of yards to opposing receivers. Sanders should continue to feast!
Jordy Nelson (71% owned, #37 WR, 52.30 fantasy pts total)
Week 4 CLE (5/48 rec/yds, 1 TD, 12.80 pts)
Week 5 @LAC (4/43 rec/yds, 1 TD, 10.30 pts)
Week 6 SEA (2/6 rec/yds, 0.60 pts)
- Nelson has had a big game this season (Week 3: 6/173 rec/yds) and scored 3 TDs so far, but his role has been chaotic at best on the Raiders – certainly an accurate reflection of the state of the team in general. With former WR1 Amari Cooper having been traded to the Cowboys, Jordy Nelson should immediately take over that position and his share of targets should increase. In weeks 3 (23.3 pts) and 4 (12.8 pts) Nelson had 8 targets each and his highest fantasy totals of the season. We can use this as a measuring stick to determine that his fantasy production going forward should be between 10 and 20 points per game in a standard league Grab him off the wire or try and buy him low if possible.
