Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and total points in NFL games? Let me be that football guru, number cruncher, couch doctor, virtuoso, wizard, svengali, professional or ace who has searched for and seen the prophecies of victory as well as having the ability to put your precarious and gambling souls at ease with my advice. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 22nd season of fantasy football(definitely a pioneer). In this weekly column, I'll offer up everything from winners, weekly spreads, point totals, moneyline moods and under/ overs, to nuggets of advice, betting strategies and game outlooks. Additionally, every week, I'll submit at least one of my tantalizing, high-odds, 'Nicks Picks', a parlay too good to be true. Remember, the most important rule is never gamble what you don't have... so be careful and good luck!
See?! Aren’t you glad that you didn’t assemble a group of the wagering unfortunate from week 3 and burn down my house? If you followed my advice for week 4, you would have had a successful outing(I was 12-3 on the moneyline) and made back that lost scratch, plus a little ‘Black Friday’ spending cash. Okay, still too early to mention X-mas as now I’m sick of myself for bringing it up. Anyway, teams are starting to reveal their true identities at this part of the season and making picks and putting tickets together seems to get easier… well, for me anyway. This is why you listen to my gospel; because you have a chance to take from the gold plate on Sundays instead of always putting in. Remember, there will be a lot of soggy fields out there this weekend, so if you’re putting action on one or some of those games, the under/ over ends up being lower as well as passing/ receiving stats. Have fun and win some!
TEN(-233) -5.5 @ BUF(+205) +5.5 (O/U 39.5) – The Titans surging defense and the Bills’ lack of running makes this a no-brainer for the moneyline. Medium confidence(5-7) on the spread.
BAL(-172) -3 @ CLE(+155) +3 (O/U 45.5) – The Ravens defense is real and were able to handle the Steelers’ firepower last week. The Browns are still a work in progress even though Baker Mayfield looks promising. I like the Ravens with the spread and moneyline.
DEN(-114) -1 @ NYJ(+102) +1 (O/U 42.5) – I have a feeling this game could be closer than a lot of people think. The Broncos are playing on shortened rest and traveling to the east coast for a noon game. I’m not touching it but if I was, I’d take Denver and the moneyline because the Jets are too inconsistent making big plays on offense.
GB(+103) +1 @ DET(-115) -1 (O/U 51) – Wow, another close one. The Packers’ receiving core is decimated and all aspects of Detroit’s game are on the rise. If you were to lay down some bacon on this one, I’d go with Green Bay and the moneyline because the Lions are the Lions and most importantly… Aaron Rodgers.
JAX(+135) +3 @ KC(-150) -3 (U/O 49) – The Chiefs will pull past the Jags in this barnburner. I’m definitely comfy taking KC and the moneyline, as well as them and the spread(maybe lower it by half a point if in a parlay) and the Over.
ATL(+152) +3 @ PIT(-169) -3 (U/O 58) – The Steelers and both moneyline and spread. Falcons defense is like a wet paper bag(Pittsburgh D not great but better than Atlanta’s) which will rip in the first half by the weight of all the first half touchdowns. I would grab the Over.
MIA(+217) +6 @ CIN(-247) -6 (U/O 48) – Even though I feel the Bengals are going to win this one, I’m only taking the moneyline because G. Bernard is out and Cincinnati will be working Mixon back in. If he has a set-back of some kind, there goes the running game. Luckily, Dalton and the aerial assault should get the win.
NYG(+226) +6.5 @ CAR(-257) -6.5 (O/U 43.5) – The Panthers are coming off a bye week and are well rested. The G-Men can’t find a rhythm to march in. I like Carolina with both the spread and moneyline.
OAK(+204) +5 @ LAC(-232) -5 (O/U 52.5) – The Raiders’ defense is sub-par and I don’t think they can stop Melvin Gordon and the other weapons that Philip Rivers has in his gun belt. I’m definitely taking the moneyline and most likely will put some action on the spread. LA’s secondary has been exploited without Joey Bosa playing at the line, so I feel confident with the Over on this one.
LAR(-314) -7.5 @ SEA(+272) +7.5 (U/O 50) – It’s the Rams. Drink the Kool-Aid and take both the spread and moneyline. I don’t like the U/O because this is a division game.
ARI(+146) +3.5 @ SF(-163) -3.5 (U/O 40.5) – Another game I am not fond of but am leaning towards the Niners and the moneyline. I also think the Over is a fair bet.
MIN(+152) +3 @ PHI(-169) -3 (U/O 47) – This is my upset of the week. I am taking the Vikings with both the spread and moneyline all day in this one. Eagles have a great run defense but have been struggling against the pass. Definitely stay away from the U/O.
DAL(+147) +3.5 @ HOU(-3.5) -3.5 (U/O 45.5) – This is a game I want no part of... banged up players, shaky defenses, etc. I’m not even considering the notion that it exists and will be played. If I had to pick any kind action, it would be the Texans and the moneyline.
WAS(+225) +6 @ NOS(-256) -6 (U/O 52.5) – I’ll be taking the Saints on both the line and spread, with a side of Over. Lots of offense, little defense in this one. Lots of points.
NICK’S PICKS to CLICK for Week 5:
3 TEAM PARLAY (BAL -3) – (KC -3) – (PIT -169 ml)
3 TEAM PARLAY (MIN +3) – (LAR -7.5) – (NOS -256 ml)
