Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and total points in NFL games? Let me be that football guru, number cruncher, couch doctor, virtuoso, wizard, svengali, professional or ace who has searched for and seen the prophecies of victory as well as having the ability to put your precarious and gambling souls at ease with my advice. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 22nd season of fantasy football(definitely a pioneer). In this weekly column, I'll offer up everything from winners, weekly spreads, point totals, moneyline moods and under/ overs, to nuggets of advice, betting strategies and game outlooks. Additionally, every week, I'll submit at least one of my tantalizing, high-odds, 'Nicks Picks', a parlay too good to be true. Remember, the most important rule is never gamble what you don't have... so be careful and good luck!
Okay, save the torches and pitchforks for another time. Some of my picks might have been way off for week 3, but come on, these were major UPSETS that most of the wagering world lost their asses on. However, if you would have listened to the rationale segment before the picks, you would of remembered me saying I don’t wager on the first two weeks of the season and ease into week three with the cash flow. So don't worry Johnny, better weeks are ahead!
PHI(-188) -3.5 @ TEN(+167) +3.5 (O/U 41.5) – Take Philly and the moneyline as this could be a field goal game. O/U should be harder than figuring out the new QB protection rule, but if you need to have a piece, get a small slice of the Under.
HOU(+112) +1.5 @ IND(-125) -1.5 (O/U 47) – The Texans are starting to click and they are underdogs in this one. A favorable spread and moneyline, so take Houston all day long. Go with the Under.
DET(+132) +3 @ DAL(-147) -3 (O/U 43.5) – The Lions are another team finding it’s rhythm and should eek out a road win in Dallas as underdogs. I like Detroit all day with both moneyline and spread, but wouldn’t touch the O/U.
TB(+142) +3 @ CHI(-159) -3 (O/U 46.5) – Chicago’s beastly defense will be too much for Tampa Bay. Even if the the Bear’s offense is mediocre at best so far this season, they should put up enough to win. I do think it could be decided by a field goal or less, so go with the moneyline and avoid the spread. I’d hide from the O/U as well.
CIN(+175) +4 @ ATL(-197) -4 (O/U 53) – Another road team, another underdog. Even though Atlanta will be at home, I believe their sham of a defense and lack of a solid running attack, will give the Bengals a legitimate shot… especially on the fast turf with Green and Boyd running routes opposite of each other. Take Cincinnati and the points. I’m being cautious with the moneyline as it could be a field goal or less in favor of the Falcons. Definitely get some action on the Over with the combination of two potent offenses.
MIA(+245) +7 @ NEP(-281) -7 (O/U 48) – The Patriots rarely lose multiple games in a row, especially when about to play at home. They also usually crush the Dolphins in Foxborough. Still, this being a division game, and Miami looking decent, I would avoid the spread and take New England and the moneyline. Stay far away from the O/U.
NYJ(+314) +7.5 @ JAX(-366) -7.5 (O/U 38.5) – I believe the Jaguars will pull out a close win, but too close to put action on any aspect of this contest due to the numbers given. The spread is too high in Jax’s favor and the moneyline is off the charts. The O/U seems about exactly right on, so why bother?
BUF(+325) +9.5 @ GBP(-380) – 9.5 (O/U 45) – After last week’s road win in Minnesota, I will not take the spread in this one until I find out a little more about the Bills. I am confident Green Bay will win at home. However, the moneyline should only be taken if you have the capital… and/ or the cajones.
SEA(-171) -3 @ ARI(+153) +3 (O/U 39) – I’m comfy taking the Seahawks with the line, spread and grabbing the under.
CLE(+133) +3 @ OAK(-148) -3 (O/U 45) – Only take the Browns and the spread if you add at least a half point. Don’t go crazy on a rookie QB’s first start, especially on the road in a notoriously hostile stadium. I’m thinking Cleveland could pull this off, just tread lightly. Anyway, the O/U is ugly, so this game has little, big money appeal.
NOS(-175) -3.5 @ NYG(+157) +3.5 (O/U 50) – Safely take the Saints on both the line and points. Shaky defenses on both ends make this a friendly Over.
SF(+378) +10.5 @ LAC(-450) -10.5 (O/U 46.5) – This is the strongest play of the week. The spread is fair in the Chargers’ favor, especially with the beating they’ll give the Niners. Without Jimmy G, San Fran will be no better than ‘okay’. The spread is reasonable and Los Angeles will probably put up at least forty-five points themselves, so go make yourself some scratch on the Over.
BAL(+142) +3 @ PIT(-158) -3 (O/U 51) – A close, divisional game, I am skipping the spread but taking the Steelers and the moneyline. I could see the Over happening, but wouldn’t put too much of the whisky fund on it.
KC(-204) -4.5 @ DEN(+181) +3 (O/U 55) – It would be fair to say that even though the Broncos have a formidable defense, they probably don’t have the offense to keep up with the Chiefs. I’m digging KC with the line and the points. Another safe Over.
Here are a few Nick’s Picks to click for week 4:
3 TEAM PARLAY (DET +3.0) – (K.C. -4.5) – (NOS -178 ml)
2 TEAM PARLAY (SEA -3.0) – (CIN +197 ml)
