Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 was a wild one around the NFL with some stunning upsets, most of which involved the NFC North. More importantly, we finally started to see a bigger chunk of the rookie class making their presence felt. Calvin Ridley, Kerryon Johnson, Josh Allen, Christian Kirk, Dallas Goedert and Baker Mayfield all had breakout games, and Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman stayed productive as well. We’ve also arrived at the Josh Rosen era in the desert. The rookie crop will continue to make a larger impact as the season rolls on, whether through improvement or attrition. It’s going to get harder each week to decide which rookies to take a chance on, so it’s a good thing I’m here to help sort it out. Let’s take a look at what to expect in week 4.
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. NO): Saquon continues to demonstrate week in and week out that he’s a must start every week. The Giants’ offense may not be great, but he’s part of a very select group when it comes to usage, and that isn’t going to change barring injury. He’s an RB1 until further notice, and the Saints’ D is nothing to be afraid of this week.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): The Chiefs have been really impressive through 3 games overall, but the defense has been less than stellar. While Freeman has been a bit touchdown-dependent, there should be plenty of chances for the Broncos to get into scoring territory. Don’t be stunned if Freeman finds the end zone more than once. Game script might have the Broncos throwing more than they’d like, but that kind of scoring upside makes Royce a solid RB2 option in 12-team leagues.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Kerryon became the first Lions’ running back since Reggie Bush to top 100 yards in a game last week, and while he’ll be hard-pressed to duplicate the feat this week, his performance should at least earn him more opportunities. The Cowboys, defense isn’t exactly stingy, but the offense slows the game down a ton and limits the number of plays for the opposing offense. The Lions are still a pass-happy offense at heart, so the slow down likely means limited work for Johnson. Still, the rookie should be a solid bet for 60-70 yards from scrimmage and a potential TD.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 4: vs. Mia.): Michel dominated the running back carries for New England on Sunday night as Rex Burkhead surprisingly didn’t have a single carry. The results were mixed, with Sony flashing solid skill on several runs and going nowhere on several others. At the end of the day, the usage was promising, and the production should get better as the Pats’ offense finds its footing. He’s worth taking a chance on again this week in a matchup with Miami, who has allowed the 8th-most RB points per game (all rankings and point totals based on PPR scoring).
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Ridley put on a show last Sunday, but don’t get too enamored with the TD barrage he unleashed on the Saints. The pendulum will eventually swing back to Julio as defenses start to pay more attention to Ridley. The Bengals have been a much better pass defense thus far than the Saints, and I’d be surprised if they let Ridley get going the way he did last week again. This might be a week to target Julio in DFS lineups. As for Ridley, it’ll be hard to sit a player with the upside he’s shown over the past couple weeks. If you believe in the talent, keep starting him. I’d at least pause and look at my other options if I had solid other choices. At the very least, Ridley has demonstrated that it is possible for a prominent 1st round rookie WR to start his career fast.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Kirk was heavily featured for the first time in week 3 posting a 7-90 line on 8 targets, and there is a decent chance it happens again this week as Larry Fitzgerald fights through a hamstring issue. There is some risk here with a new starting quarterback, but I believe the switch to Josh Rosen makes the Cardinals’ offense better, not worse, and Kirk was targeted 3 times in Rosen’s 2 possessions at QB. Kirk is a flex option in deeper PPR leagues.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 4: @GB): Allen is coming off his best day as a pro, a dazzling performance against the vaunted Vikings’ defense where he scored twice on the ground and once through the air in an emphatic victory. The win, however, included a bit of good fortune and good defense early on that staked the Bills to an early lead. Minnesota extended Buffalo’s first scoring drive with a late hit penalty on a 3rd-down sack. Then Kirk Cousins handed the Bills the ball deep in Vikes territory with two bad fumbles where he just didn’t feel the pressure coming. I don’t expect the same kind of perfect start at Lambeau. There is a chance that Allen does some stat-padding if the Bills fall behind in this one, but I wouldn’t trust him as more than a low-end QB2. The Packers will be playing angry coming off a disappointing loss last week, and they won’t sleep on the Bills like Minnesota did.
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Rosen has officially been announced as the starter moving forward, and it hopefully will jumpstart the Cards’ offense. I’m hesitant to put much faith in him this week against a Seahawks’ defense that has been playing surprisingly well despite a lot of roster turnover. The ‘Hawks rank 4th in the league in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. I’ll be watching Rosen closely this week, but he should only be started if you’re desperate in a 2-QB league.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 4: @Jax.): Darnold has posted back-to-back shaky performances after a strong NFL debut, and now he gets to face one of the most feared secondaries in the league. The Jaguars have allowed the 4th-fewest QB points per game and will make it a long Sunday for Darnold.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): Lindsay was a disappointment last week after being ejected for throwing a punch on Sunday. It may have opened the door for Devontae Booker to push his way back into a role in the offense, and Lindsay might see some reduced playing time as a result of his transgression. There’s still a chance that the rookie goes right back to putting up 100 scrimmage yards this week, but I’d be cautious about trotting him out there in lineups this week.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): Penny seemed to be working his way into a big role, but that all changed in week 3 as Chris Carson tallied over 30 carries. Penny is clearly relegated to the second string again, and until we know that’s changed you just can’t trust him in lineups.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): Chubb’s time seemed to be on the horizon as Carlos Hyde struggled with his efficiency in the first 2 weeks, but Hyde took a big step forward in week 3. The veteran back posted his best game as a Brown and likely bought himself at least a couple more weeks as Cleveland’s clear lead back. Chubb will continue to spell Hyde for the time being, but he isn’t getting enough work to be useful in fantasy right now.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 4: @Ten.): Adams looks like the next man up in the Eagles’ backfield group with Jay Ajayi sidelined, but he’s not worth trusting in fantasy yet. He carried just 6 times in week 3 and wasn’t targeted. There’s a chance that Ajayi returns this week, which would render Adams totally useless. If Ajayi sits, 6-8 touches feels like the most you can hope for.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Smith will continue to see some work to keep Tevin Coleman fresh as long as Devonta Freeman is out, but not enough of it. Smith handled just 5 touches last week to 17 for Coleman. That kind of work gives him just enough opportunity to flash his skills without being useful in fantasy.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Washington has seen much more playing time over the last couple games than he did week 1, but it hasn’t resulted in big production. The Ravens aren’t likely to be the team he breaks out against. Baltimore ranks 6th in the league in pass defense DVOA, and have allowed just 10 catches to WRs per game, and the vast majority of those will go to JuJu and Antonio Brown.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Gallup’s targets have climbed from 1 to 2 to 4 in the first 3 games of the year, but he’s caught just 1 pass each week. He also was on the wrong side of a highlight-reel interception by Earl Thomas after Gallup couldn’t hang on to the ball. His usage is trending up, but his production is not. Keep waiting on Gallup.
TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): The Seahawks finally got a chance to play from ahead in week 3, and Will Dissly’s production disappeared as a result. Seattle is a 3-point favorite on the road this weekend, and it’s hard to count on him to return to productive ways if they do in fact play from in front. The TE position has been a bit desolate this year, but there are probably better options you can find this week.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 4: @NE): Gesicki posted his best game as a pro last Sunday, but it’s going to take a bit more than 3 catches for 31 yards for me to buy into the Penn State alum. He was targeted just 3 times against Oakland and had just 1 catch prior to last Sunday.
TE Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 4: @Ind.): The Colts are an inviting tight end matchup, allowing the 4th-most points per game to the position and at least 57 yards each week, but Akins has totaled just 5-50-0 in 3 weeks.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): If you play in a 2-QB league and have Cam Newton or Alex Smith as one of your weekly starters, Baker could make for a nice bye week fill-in. He didn’t post a TD in his debut, but he looked fantastic in leading the Browns to just their second win since 2015. The Raiders rank just 31st in pass defense DVOA, and I don’t think they have quite enough film on Baker to be able to shut him down this week. I’m excited to see what he does for an encore.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Hou.): Marlon Mack’s status is still up in the air for this week, and Hines has shown himself to be the only other Colts’ back worth considering. Jordan Wilkins hasn’t really made much happen with his limited opportunity, but Hines has shown himself to be a useful receiver out of the backfield. It would help him if Andrew Luck gets back the ability to push the ball down the field to create more space for screens and other short passes, but Hines has the athleticism to make a big play happen at any time. That explosiveness makes him an intriguing punt option in DFS tournaments.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): Callaway was a letdown last week, but he was a letdown that was targeted 10 times. If that volume continues, it’s only a matter of time until he has that breakout game. Baker Mayfield’s accuracy and quick decision-making should open up the Cleveland offense a bit, and make Callaway even more of a threat. If he’s still available in your league, you should rectify that. He has solid upside in week 4 against a poor Oakland secondary.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): This week is a good one to take a chance on Sutton in DFS tournaments or if you’re desperate for a flex option in deeper leagues. The Chiefs are heavy favorites and lack much of a pass defense. If Denver is chasing points, Sutton is going to see a solid number of targets against the defense. KC is allowing the 7th-most WR points per game so far.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Much like Sutton above, Miller is going to face a team with a lackluster defense and explosive offense. The Bears aren’t a team that’s likely to be involved in a shootout, but if you expect Fitzmagic to continue this week, Miller will have a chance to put up a solid day as the Bears try to keep pace. He’s worth a dice roll as a cheap DFS tournament play. He left last Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury, but posted that he was fine on twitter afterward.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 4: @Ten.): Goedert may have been the most surprising rookie performance of last weekend. He managed to out-target and out-produce Zach Ertz in the return of QB Carson Wentz. Wentz’s affinity for his tight ends is well known, so I’d look for Goedert to remain a big part of the offense at least until Alshon Jeffery returns. The Titans have allowed the fewest TE points per game, but they have yet to face a decent tight end. Goedert is an interesting DFS tournament option this week.
TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 4: @Pit.): The Steelers have been absolutely shredded by tight ends each of the last 2 weeks, and Andrews is averaging just over 8 points per game (PPR). He’s still splitting work with Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams (at least until Hayden Hurst returns), but he is a decent DFS dart throw again this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you aren’t starting any injured players come game day. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) and let me know. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
