Every year, fantasy championships are won or lost by the teams that managed to hit on a break out player or...those that passed over that player. One of the more predictable paths to break out players is when a WR enters his third year. Players that reach this point have at least shown flashes of being good, otherwise they would have been cut already.

A couple of guys will be exempt from our class this year, notably Michael Thomas (NO) and Tyreek Hill (KC), both of whom finished in the top 8 fantasy WRs in 2017. They've already been breaking things - mainly records. Thomas is certain to be a stud again next year, going over 1100 yards receiving in each of his two seasons. Hill's situation may seem a little uncertain with new QB Patrick Mahomes, but the fact that Tyreek Hill is one of the most exciting players to watch since Devin Hester will not change.

So that leaves us with 12 guys that were all drafted ahead Tyreek Hill (165th overall). We'll look at their breakout potential based on past performance and their team's current situation. Some of these guys have already shown some really good things, and some of them are valuable picks that aren't working out. This is part 1, where we'll look at the first 4 guys on the list, all first rounders. Next time, we'll take a look at more third year WRs, as well as some breakouts in the past and why those worked.

Corey Coleman (CLE) - Coleman was the first WR taken in the 2016 draft - he was 15th overall. His biggest problem in his first two years, apart from being on the Browns, is that he was unable to stay on the field. He's played in just 19 games during his first two seasons. He's also, and this can't be stressed enough, on the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are certainly expected to be a team with a good amount of turmoil, following a 0-16 season. Since coach Hue Jackson is sticking around, he's likely to stick with his very first draft pick for at least another year. This should guarantee Coleman an opportunity to produce on the team, if only for Hue Jackson to show that he can at least get one thing right.

The sample size that Coleman does have is big enough to show us some encouraging stats. First of all, he's being targeted 7 times per game, never going below 4 in any single week. He's firmly the #2 WR on the team behind Josh Gordon, so this means that he's unlikely to draw the toughest coverages. I don't see his targets average changing much to start off 2018.

Going in to 2018, the biggest worry for Coleman will be what the offense is going to look like around him. New OC Todd Haley should breathe some life into a team that only put up 20+ points four times last season. The most important role is going to be quarterback for the Browns. Improved QB play will do a lot to up Coleman's catch percentage, which is just 42.7% for his career.

So can Coleman break out in 2018? I say that yes, he can, but there's a couple things that need to happen along the way. First and foremost, he needs a good QB. I have no idea how this will happen, but if they sign a decent free agent (ahem, Kirk Cousins), then this could be a huge upgrade. This could make Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman a combination that puts up 1000 yards each. It’s more likely that they will draft a top QB, so that will take more time to develop.

 Second, he needs to stay healthy, especially early in the season. Coleman has basically missed the first couple months each of the last two years, which is a terrible way to start a career. If he plays 16 games, he has the opportunity to develop a good rapport with the new starting QB. I really hope there's a new starting QB.

So hey, it's the offseason, we can dream a little bit. If the Browns do wind up signing Terrelle Pryor, I wouldn't worry too much. Pryor would be more of an insurance signing than someone who would start immediately. I give Coleman a 60% chance to break out as a WR 2 if they sign a good QB. If not, he's probably more like 30% - in short, he (and the Browns) need help to get there.

Will Fuller (HOU) - The 21st overall pick, Fuller looks like he has a great chance at big fantasy numbers in 2018. With Deshaun Watson at QB, Fuller is definitely in the best situation of any third year WR going in to next season. The Texans are a team on the rise, mostly because their offense looks to be explosive with Watson at the helm.

Fuller also benefits from the presence of DeAndre Hopkins, last year’s #1 fantasy WR. Hopkins will demand tons of attention from opposing defenses, and should draw a lot of top coverage and even double teams. This will allow Fuller to exploit his matchups in an attempt to match his blistering touchdown pace from last year.

How great was his touchdown pace? Well, in 2017, Fuller found the end zone one out of every four touches he had. On the season, he had 7 TDs on just 28 receptions. Unfortunately, he had only an average of 5 targets per game, but with a 56% catch percentage, he is able to still be productive. Having 15 yards per catch helps a lot too. This kind of production probably means that Fuller will not slip in under the radar in 2018 drafts.

Due to his higher profile, compared to the rest of the guys on this list, he will definitely not be a sneaky pick you can get later in the draft. If you want Fuller on your team, it’s going to cost you a mid-round pick, if not higher. My suggestion for guys like this is generally to wait and let others overspend on him, but to take him if the value is right.

So, can Will Fuller break out as a bigtime receiver in 2018? I say that the chances are high that he has a successful season, provided he can stay healthy. He’s missed 8 games over his first two seasons, so he’s more reliable than Corey Coleman. That being said, he has to play more than 75% of the time to reach the WR2 territory that we’re hoping for.

I give Fuller an 80% chance to break out this season. This mostly depends on Watson being his QB and performing somewhere near the insane level that he had last year (18 passing TDs in just 6 starts, are you kidding me?). So keep an eye on him during the offseason to see how well he’s working with Watson. There will likely be a lot of hype surrounding the Texans offense going in to next year, so that may artificially inflate the ADP of everyone involved, especially Fuller – since Hopkins and Watson are already at the top of their respective positions.

Josh Doctson (WAS) - Doctson was the 22nd overall pick in 2016 and the Redskins first round selection for that year. His rookie year was a dud, appearing in just 2 games and racking up 2 receptions. Going in to last season, he seemed like one of the hot sleeper picks. Unfortunately his hype was just talk and he really couldn't get anything going until later in the season.

Injuries have been a concern for Doctson, and an obvious theme in this list. Through two seasons, he's appeared in only 18 games, after a mysterious Achilles injury early in the 2016 season kept him mostly grounded for an entire year. The encouraging stat to take away here is that he did appear in all 16 games in 2017 and ended the season healthy.

The 2018 season looks to be set up for an overall upgrade for Doctson. His new QB, Alex Smith, was one of the best in the league last year, though he's unlikely to repeat those gaudy numbers. Regardless, Smith is a guy who has learned how to make the most of a speedy guy on the outside, and Doctson will be the #1 outside target on the 'Skins with Pryor likely to depart.

Doctson has a few stats in 2017 that make his outlook quite positive for the upcoming season. Once he was back into full rotation with the offense, he was targeted consistently - averaging 6.8 targets per game from week 9 to the end of the season. He also found the end zone 6 times. With a long score of 52 yards, and a short of just 1, it's clear that he's a threat to score from anywhere on the field.

Still, there's room for improvement with Doctson. Obviously, he needs to develop a rapport with his new QB, but he also needs to up his catch %. 44% is just not going to cut it when your QB is a check-down king. He's also only had one game over 61 yards in his career, and that one was just 81 yards. He's going to be a key member of a potent passing game, so he's due to break the century mark - or maybe he's just lucky that he scored 6 times last year.

I give Doctson a 60% chance to break out as a WR3 this year. His low yardage totals have me worried, although his 15.4 career yards per reception could be the key indicator that he's going to put up good numbers if he catches more balls. I would put his chances at becoming a WR2 at more like 35%. Doctson has a lot of tools to be a good player in the NFL. I don't know if I've seen indications that he can be great...yet.

Laquon Treadwell (MIN) - 2016's 23rd overall pick is firmly in the bust category through two seasons on the Minnesota Vikings. Treadwell was the 3rd WR taken in a row - clearly a run, and anyone who's played fantasy football for a while knows that it really sucks being at the end of a run at any position. Perhaps the writing was on the wall for Treadwell all along.

Amazingly, he's been healthy enough to have appeared (or at least been on the active roster) for 25 games - that's more than any other WRs that were drafted in the first round. Treadwell just can't find his way on to the field for enough snaps to ever make a difference. Injuries to other players haven't allowed him to just jump up the depth chart, and he was never really able to earn his way into getting targets. He has just 38 targets on his career, a measly 1.5 per game.

The emergence of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have basically ended it for Treadwell in Minnesota. They're likely to part ways with him either through trade or just cutting him. If he gets cut, he'll probably stick with the team through late August, until final cut-downs, but don't get your hopes up.

I give Treadwell a 5% chance of being fantasy relevant in 2018, and this is contingent on him finding a new team and getting a prominent role. He's had many chances to prove himself and just can't do it. This one's a no-brainer. You're not drafting Treadwell, and because of that, thankfully, I don't have to dive into the messy QB situation in Minnesota.