Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and the under/ over in the NFL? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your precarious souls at ease. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 21st season of fantasy football(definitely a self-proclaimed pioneer). But enough about this guy. In this weekly column, I'll offer up anything from sportsbook's outcomes, moods and reflections, as well as offer words of advice and knowledge on betting strategies. Additionally, for every game, I'll have my picks for the spread, moneyline and under/ over ready to go. And if you're good(or I just happen to be feeling generous), I'll offer up one of my tantalizing, high-odds 'Nicks Picks', a ticket too good to be true. Anyway, if for some reason any of Nick's Picks let you down, I'm cool with you telling your bookie it was all my fault. Yeah... right.
'WEEKDAY RUNAWAY' - Well, I'm guessing a lot of online ticket players choose their sportsbooks based on the provider's ability to furnish the coming week's NFL lines as soon as possible. I get the psychology from both sides of the always pocketed, 'winner/loser' coin; If you have a bad week, you want to ease that feeling of loss and put a half-smile on your face by making some quick, 'for-sure-to-win' tickets. On the other side of said speculative coin, if you end up being gifted with a positive week, there will be adrenaline still pumping in the veins, and with the taste of blood and victory still fresh on your tongue, next week can't come soon enough. A lot of sportsbooks will boast early lines to attract online action. They must think everyone just has some urge to bet without during their homework first. I have one word for them(well, two words): Deshaun Watson. This superstar got hurt at practice mid-week, ending his season, and it dramatically changed the lines between the Houston/ Indianapolis game. If you would of picked the Texans to win or them to cover the spread, you would of been up the creek. Mid-week injuries occurring on the practice field are huge in making your weekly tickets. Other deciding factors are suspensions and of course, the weather report(and I'm not talking about the killer, jazz-rock fusion band from the 70's of the same name). I know a lot of you are thinking that the lines change during the week and you might get more favorable odds by wagering earlier on. That may be true in some of the games, but it will be such a small movement in points(up or down), that you are better off adjusting the lines/ odds yourself closer to the time of action. So basically, I'm saying wait until at least Friday night before finalizing and placing your tickets. Anything can happen during the week at camp and a surprise storm can be announced a day or two before game day. A player can get a case of the rage and strike a loved one, causing a suspension. Who knows with all the drama and freakish injuries in the league today. Definitely do your research as soon as the lines are available, and monitor all week long. Keep all the games in your mind's eye but don't pull the trigger until the weekend hits. BTW, I no longer wager on Thursday Night Football. I've found that the short rest(or just playing on an unusual day like Thursday) might affect players' abilities, thus changing up the character of the teams and making match-ups harder to predict. At least TNF doesn't have an unworthy and 'displeasing to the ear' theme song like it's other two prime time siblings. Or wait, does it?
NICK'S PICK OF THE WEEK: 3 GAME PARLAY | DAL +3 | NYG -2.5 | NYJ -2.5
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS - SEA -6 | SEA -267 | UNDER 40
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - PIT -10 | PIT -446 | UNDER 45
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ BUFFALO BILLS - NOS -3 | NOS -139 | OVER 46.5
NEW YORK JETS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - NYJ -2.5 | NYJ -135 | OVER 43
MINNESOTA VIKING @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS - MIN -1.5 | MIN -124 | UNDER 42
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - JAX -3.5 | JAX -194 | UNDER 41
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ TENNESSEE TITANS - TEN -4.5 | TEN -216 | OVER 40.5
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS - GB +5.5 | CHI -239 | OVER 38
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ DETROIT LIONS - DET -11 | DET -543 | UNDER 43.5
HOUSTON TEXANS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS - LAR -11 | LAR -559 | OVER 45.5
NEW YORK GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers - NYG -2.5 | NYG -146 | OVER 41.5
DALLAS COWBOYS @ ATLANTA FALCONS - DAL +3 | DAL +140 | UNDER 49.5
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ DENVER BRONCOS - NEP -7.5 | NEP -293 | UNDER 45.5
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS - MIA +10 | CAR -405 | OVER 40
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS:
SPREAD 7-4
MONEYLINE 7-4
TOTAL O/U 5-6
YTD RESULTS:
SPREAD 67-57
MONEYLINE 76-48
TOTAL O/U 59-65
