Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking game scores, spreads and over/unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I'll go over each match up and point out why I'm leaning a certain direction as well as predicting the point total. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders.
Wagering tip of the week: start out your wagering week by combing the lines of your favorite sportsbook(s) looking for the bets that just seem too easy to win. A lot of times those are there to actually scare you away from putting down serious action. But in reality, you own the odds so don't be afraid. Sounds weird, but it is a trend followed. Obviously, there are going to be more lines on games which are just too close and carry more risk, but you can easily cross those off the list and drop more coin on the safer plays while dividing the rest of your weekly allowance among the mid-risk picks.
WEEK 6 PICKS:
DENVER BRONCOS 30 @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 20 - Paxton Lynch isn't as smooth or good enough at the QB position to be a starter. Period. Trevor Siemian will supposedly get the start this Thursday night in San Diego, which should make the Bronco's offense look a little more crisp. I'd safely take Denver and the spread and will reach for the over. Medium confidence pool points.
L.A. RAMS 20 @ DETROIT LIONS 26 - Consistency. Neither of these teams seem to have it. This game will feature a steady defense(L.A.) against a potent offense(Det). The Lions are definitely a better team at home and the Rams have big play ability as well as featuring star RB Todd Gurley, who shows flashes of being elite but in my opinion is too streaky to trust. Detroit will put up enough in the end to pull off the victory in this historic snooze fest. I would easily go for the Lions and the low spread and am shying away from the over/under. If you do want to put action on it, go for the over. Low pool points.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 17 @ CHICAGO BEARS 27 - Can you believe it? The Bears will win their 2nd game of the season! Hoyer is the new sheriff in town and Chicago has a stable of capable receivers in Jeffery, Royal and now the up and coming Cameron Meredith to serve as ammo for their fresh gunslinger. Add rookie RB phenom Jordan Howard, and the Bears biggest weakness obviously becomes their defense, who are still capable at playing big-boy football, although not able to seal the deal with regularity. Jacksonville are too hot and cold for me to think they're a 'for sure' win, so cautiously take the Bears and the spread as well as the over. Low confidence on this match up.
CAROLINA PANTHERS 20 @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 36 - Fresh off their bye week, the Saints will be ready to roll at home against the discombobulated Panthers, who still are uncertain if Cam Newton will be ready to go due to his recent concussion. Carolina's defensive struggles have continued and they certainly don't have the dominance of last year's squad. New Orleans has an atrocious defense themselves, so this game will be decided strictly by the offensive. Brees has numerous weapons to match his skills, so expect a high scoring contest making the over a no-brainer. Grab the Saints and the points while going low confidence points.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 24 @ BUFFALO BILLS 27 - Kaepernick returns this weekend for the Niners, but will the switch in QBs make the team better or worse? Personally, with the running game of Victor Cruz and the receiving play of Jeremy Kerley, Blaine Gabbert has been okay in my opinion, especially compared to some guys who get paid a lot more than him. Their defense is starting to gel some, so how about letting the offense do the same? I think tinkering now is just a bad idea, especially if the QB you want to put in won't be a part of the plan next year. Buffalo is a Jekyll & Hyde team but have been a little more solid as of late. I would stay away from the spread and over/under on this game... they're money traps. Definitely low pool points.
CLEVELAND BROWNS 16 @ TENNESSEE TITANS 27 - Let's see. The Browns have a good running game but also employ a weekly QB carousel. The Titans also have a good running game with a passing attack that seems to be getting stronger. The Titans have the edge when it comes to defense and have home field advantage. This game is an easy pick. Take the Titans and the spread and jump on the over. Medium to high on the confidence points.
BALTIMORE RAVENS 24 @ NEW YORK GIANTS 20 - Another game that is pretty simple to figure out. The Ravens have a better running game(not much) and a way better defense. Eli Manning and the Giants' passing game should be better- but it's not, while Joe Flacco seems to be getting it done through the air. I would take Baltimore and the points while staying away from the over/under. Very low pool points.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 27 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 20 - It looks like the Redskins might be without one of their biggest play makers in TE Jordan Reed(concussion) this week, which will definitely limit their diversity on offense. The Eagles have a good defense and the favorable play of QB Carson Wentz has been remained steady. Grab Philly and the spread and go with the over. Medium pool points.
CINCINNATI BENGALS 17 @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 34 - There is not a lot to say here other than Tom Brady is at home and has a lot of weapons at his disposal. Cincinnati is way too inconsistent and can't be taken seriously to win this game. Easily go with the Pats and the spread while safely taking the over. High pool points.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 37 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS 17 - The Steelers offense will be way too much for the shoddy defense of Miami to handle. The Steelers defense will be way too much for the Miami offense to handle. You get the picture... it's going to be a massacre. Definitely take Pittsburgh and the spread as well as the over. High confidence points.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 28 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS 20 - Kansas City should have enough firepower and defense to get past division rival Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have big play ability and can put up points, but the defense is way too generous and one of the worst in the league. I would take K.C. and the points while going with the over. Medium confidence points.
DALLAS COWBOYS 23 @ GREEN BAY PACKERS 30 - Dallas is looking very good but it's still hard to win against the Packers, let alone at Lambeau. This one will be a little closer due to the availability of Eddie Lacy(ankle) and Green Bay's ability to run the ball. I would take the Packers and the spread and definitely take the over. Medium confidence points.
ATLANTA FALCONS 23 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 24 - I believe this will be one of the closest games of the week. To tell you the truth, I'm not putting any action on it. However, if I was, I'd take Atlanta and the points and go with the over. Very low confidence points.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 20 @ HOUSTON TEXANS 27 - This is the week Houston rebounds and gets a win. Even though it will seem like a tough division match up, I have no doubt in their abilities against a flimsy Colts' D. The Texans' offense will look a lot better than it has, complimenting the play of their worthy defense. Go with Houston and the spread while taking the over. Medium pool points.
NEW YORK JETS 23 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS 24 - This game will be another contest that will be very close. Both teams have stout defenses but both offenses can be streaky. I really like Larry Fitzgerald and RB David Johnson, so I think the Cardinals might have a little too much firepower for the Jets to handle. I would take the Jets with all the points given them and go with the over. Low confidence points.
