Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve somehow made it halfway through the NFL season already, but it feels like things are just starting for the rookie crop as even more new names are emerging with strong fantasy performances. Tank Dell & CJ Stroud re-established themselves with true blow-up games, Dalton Kincaid continued his mid-season surge, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Demario Douglas continued to build on their strong recent play, and Keaton Mitchell announced his presence with authority in week 9.
The biggest story of the week last weekend was the rookie QB bonanza. 8 different rookie signal callers started or saw extensive action in week 9, and the results were mixed at best. CJ Stroud was spectacular, Aidan O’Connell and Will Levis played fairly well even if it didn’t show up in fantasy box scores, Jaren Hall got hurt, and Bryce Young, Tyson Bagent, Clayton Tune, and Tommy DeVito all had days they’d rather forget. Several of these guys will be back under center in week 10, so it’ll be a recurring storyline here at the Rookie Report going forward.
Week 10 presents some unique bye week challenges. Only 4 teams are off this week, but some of the truly elite fantasy producers are sidelined in week 10 with Philly, Kansas City, Miami, and the Rams taking the week off. There will likely be several names discussed below that can help you find a fill-in this week if you need one, so let’s dive in.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s talk about week 10:
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Who are we kidding? I don’t think I could convince you to put Stroud back on the bench if I tried after he put up 470 yards and 5 TDs against the Bucs on Sunday. You’re crazy if you expect anything close to that kind of production this week, but the game script should keep Stroud throwing plenty in Cincy. The Texans are a touchdown underdog against a Bengals’ defense that has allowed 949 passing yards in their last 3 games. Prior to his explosion last weekend, Stroud had fallen short of 250 passing yards in 3 straight games, but a lot of that was due to low passing volume, which likely won’t be a problem in Cincinnati. With all of Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts sitting this week with byes, Stroud feels like a top-8 QB option against the Bengals.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Kincaid has taken the fantasy world by storm in the last 3 weeks, scoring at least 15 PPR points in each game despite scoring only 1 TD in that span. This week he faces a Denver defense that has allowed the 2nd-most TE points per game and ranks 26th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends. Star corner Patrick Surtain Jr. should be matched up with Stefon Diggs most of the night, so don’t be surprised if a few more targets go to Kincaid, Gabe Davis, and Khalil Shakir than usual. Kincaid should be viewed as a high-end TE1 option this week.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 10: @LAC): I had a hard time deciding whether to list Kincaid or LaPorta as the better option this week. Sammy Ballgame has a favorable matchup as well, facing a Chargers’ defense that has allowed the 6th-most tight end points per game. I can’t say that LaPorta has scored 15+ PPR points in each of the last 3 games like Kincaid has, but his 28 targets in that span are actually 2 more than Kincaid has seen in his 3-game breakout. LaPorta just hasn’t been earning quite as many yards per target as the Buffalo standout, and the Chargers don’t have a lockdown corner who can limit Amon-Ra St. Brown and direct targets elsewhere. LaPorta should still be a top-8 TE option this week. I just like Kincaid a little bit more for week 10.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 10: @TB): I wouldn’t advocate for starting Levis over a slam dunk top-10 QB this week, but with elite options like Mahomes, Tua, Hurts and Stafford on byes, Levis should be a strong option if you need a fill-in starter, and should make for a solid QB2 in superflex leagues. After his 4-TD outburst in his debut, Levis was not as impressive in his encore performance against Pittsburgh. He failed to throw a TD pass and finished as the QB21 for the week, but he gets a much rosier matchup this weekend against the defense CJ Stroud lit up for 5 scores last Sunday. Tampa Bay has been absolutely shredded by opposing passers, coughing up 296 passing yards per week and allowing the 2nd-most QB points per game. The only QBs they’ve held below 250 passing yards were Justin Fields in week 2, and Derek Carr battling an injured shoulder in week 4. Three out of four QBs they’ve faced since their bye have thrown for 320+ yards and multiple TDs. Levis will still go through some rookie growing pains, but this feels like a week where he should look impressive. 250 yards and 2 TDs are a very possible outcome here.
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 10: @Ari.): For all of the uproar over how poorly Arthur Smith uses his best weapons, I’ve still been pretty comfortable treating Bijan Robinson as a safe weekly RB2 each week. The headache game was a blip on the radar, but what we’ve seen the last two weeks with Taylor Heinicke at QB has me concerned. We could live with Bijan not getting many goal-line carries when he was piling up points in the passing game, but he and Heinicke just haven’t been on the same page in that department. With Desmond Ridder at QB, Bijan caught 26-of-32 targets and averaged 9.5 PPR points per game just from receiving production (not counting the headache game). With Heinicke under center, he’s caught just 2 of 9 targets for 8 yards and averaged merely 10 total PPR points per game. His status as even a weekly RB2 option is on shaky ground if that receiving efficiency doesn’t improve. Luckily, this week’s matchup feels like one where he should put up plenty of rushing production against an Arizona defense that ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and allows the 3rd-most RB points per game. This feels like a get-right spot for the talented rookie, and I’d trust him one more time as an RB2. Even if he puts up a big game this week, it doesn’t mean all is right in the world of Bijan. That lack of receiving production will be a problem in tougher matchups if it doesn’t improve.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 10: @LAC): David Montgomery is expected to return from injury this week, but over the last couple of games without him, Dan Campbell has seen the light on Jahmyr Gibbs and there’s no putting that toothpaste back in the tube. Earlier this week Campbell said “He’s gonna get his fair share now, we know what he can be and he’s growing. It’ll be a little bit by committee, and make sure we get those guys touches. Gibbs will get his touches.” Campbell has typically been a straight shooter when making comments like these. In the two full games Monty and Gibbs have played together this season, Montgomery has out-snapped the rookie 105-to-47. Don’t expect those numbers to reverse going forward, but they should be much closer to even. This week, Gibbs faces the Chargers, who allow the 13th-most RB points per game and rank 20th in run defense DVOA. They also allow the 2nd-most RB receptions and RB receiving yards per game. Gibbs won’t be the clear-cut top-10 RB play that he was in his last couple of games, but he should be a safe RB2 this week even if he’s splitting the workload with Montgomery.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Before I dive in on Demercado, I want to make sure to mention there are a lot of injury contingencies to this recommendation. James Conner is practicing this week and has a chance to get activated from IR ahead of this game. Demercado himself was inactive in week 9 and not practicing as of Wednesday due to a toe injury. IF Demercado is active, and IF Conner is not able to return, I like Emari as a flex play this week. Demercado has finished as a top-30 back in 3 of the last 4 games he was active, and Atlanta has given up 12+ fantasy points to an opposing running back in each of their last 4 games. The return of Kyler Murray should lead to Arizona being able to score more points, and that gives Demercado more TD upside. Keep an eye on the injury report here if you’re planning to start the rookie. Arizona doesn’t play until the late afternoon on Sunday, so make sure you have a pivot option ready just in case Conner is active or Demercado isn’t.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Dell was the biggest beneficiary of CJ Stoud’s scintillating performance last weekend, racking up a 6-114-2 line on 11 targets and finishing as the WR1 for the week. Typically, it’s been hard to tell on a week-to-week basis if it’ll be Dell or Nico Collins who will have the bigger week, but there may be enough volume for both against the Bengals on Sunday. Cincy is favored by a touchdown, and there’s a good chance the Texans will have to throw a bunch to keep pace with a red-hot Joe Burrow. CJ Stroud has attempted 40+ passes in a game 3 times this year. Collins and Dell have each totaled 25 targets in those games (8.3 per game). I think it’s likely that Stroud will throw 40+ times again this week. I’d treat both Dell and Collins as upside WR3 options this weekend.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Figuring out what to do with Addison this week is a tricky proposition. The matchup is not ideal as the Saints allow the 11th-fewest WR points per game and rank 4th in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing #1 wide receivers, and Josh Dobbs isn’t as effective a passer as Kirk Cousins no matter how impressive he was last weekend. With that said, the Vikings are going to have to make an effort to get the ball to Addison. He had a 20.7% target share from Dobbs last week, and I’d be surprised if he’s below 20% this week, Dobbs has attempted 30+ passes in all but one game he’s played this season. I don’t expect that mark to change this week. One positive note for Addison – the Saints haven’t been nearly as aggressive as usual about having Marshon Lattimore shadow the opposing team’s #1 receiver this year, so the rookie should see a mix of New Orleans’ different cornerbacks. The Saints also play man-to-man coverage at the 4th-highest rate in the league, and Addison ranks 21st among WRs in fantasy points per target against man coverage. I wouldn’t count on a big ceiling here from Addison in a tough matchup, but volume should get him to a useful WR3 floor.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 10: vs. Ind.): Douglas has emerged as the only New England receiver worth fantasy consideration right now, and I like his chances at turning in a WR3-level performance against a middling Colts’ pass defense. Indy has allowed the 17th-most WR points per game and ranks 14th in pass defense DVOA, but more importantly, they play zone coverage at the highest rate of any team in the league. Douglas is 25th among all wide receivers in PPF receiving grade against zone coverage, and 19th in yards per route run against it. He’s totaled 20 targets in the last 3 weeks and finished as a top-30 PPR receiver in two of them. I’d expect more of the same here. Something in the range of 5-60 with a possible TD feels like a reasonable expectation for Pop Douglas this weekend.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 10: @Chi.): Bryce’s transition to the NFL has been anything but smooth thus far, but Thursday night’s contest with the Bears has a chance to be a get-right spot for the former Heisman winner. No team in the league has allowed more QB points per game than the Bears, and Chicago ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. If Young had shown any ceiling to this point, I might like him as a top-12 option this week, but Bryce has yet to throw for 250 yards in a game and has posted just 1 multi-TD performance. The most troubling stats for Young are that he ranks 31st of 32 QBs in intended air yards per pass attempt, and according to Next Gen Stats ranks 24th out of 36 qualified QBs in time to throw. Put more simply, he’s holding on to the ball too long, and still not throwing it downfield. The short passes could spell success against a Chicago defense that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA on short throws, but I can’t recommend Bryce as anything more than a mid-range QB2 even in this great matchup given the results so far.
QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): All signs point to Bagent making his third start on Thursday night. The Bears have tried to be conservative with the game plan to protect Bagent when they can, but game script has caused them to be pass-heavier than they’d like the last two weeks, and it’s resulted in 5 INTs for Bagent against the Chargers and Saints. Things should be cleaner this week against Carolina in a game the Bears are actually favored to win. They should be able to lean on the running game against a Panther defense that is much worse against the run than the pass, and hopefully that cuts down on the turnovers. I expect low passing volume from Bagent in this game, and anything over 200 passing yards would be a mild surprise. He flashed some rushing upside last week, tallying 70 yards on the ground on 8 carries in New Orleans, but the Panthers rarely play man-to-man defense (2nd-lowest man coverage rate in the league), which is typically when QBs find the best scrambling opportunities. I wouldn’t count on much rushing production this week. That low projected passing volume without rushing production to boost it makes Bagent no more than a fill-in QB2 this week, and one that can actively hurt you if he doesn’t fix the turnovers.
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): O’Connell has been a fan favorite in Vegas and is coming off his most efficient passing game of the season last Sunday (8.4 yards per attempt and a 90.2 passer rating), but this week’s matchup isn’t a good one. The Jets have allowed the 9th-fewest QB points per game and rank 4th in pass defense DVOA. The Raiders have a Vegas implied point total of just 17 points in this game and I’d treat O’Connell as a fringe QB2 in this much tougher matchup. He’s averaged just 9.6 fantasy points per start this year.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): Charbonnet has out-snapped Kenneth Walker III in back-to-back weeks, but at least one of those was a result of garbage time after the Ravens blew the doors off the Seahawks last weekend. Walker still led Seattle in rushing attempts in both of those games and Charbs has totaled just 10.7 PPR points in them. This week’s matchup isn’t good or bad. The Commanders have allowed the 17th-most RB points per game, but they’re much weaker against the pass than the run. Charbonnet is a good enough back that he could turn limited opportunities into a useful fantasy day, but it just hasn’t happened much this year. He’s only topped 6 PPR points once this season. I’d treat him as an RB4 option this week.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): In two games since his return from a concussion, Johnson has totaled just 8 carries and 5 targets, and he got less work in week 9 than he did in week 8. We’ve heard all season about Roschon eventually taking the lead in this backfield, and it just hasn’t come to fruition. The Bears should be able to run the ball this week against a Carolina team that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2nd-most RB points per game. D’Onta Foreman handled 74% of the team rushing attempts last week. If Johnson can cut into that number on Thursday, he’s got RB3 upside in a great matchup, but the potential return of Khalil Herbert is also working against Roschon this week. Herbert has been designated to return from IR and is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game. If Herbert plays, there’s no way you can count on Johnson. He’s a volatile RB4 if Herbert isn’t quite ready.
Update: Herbert was not activated for this week.
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Mitchell came out of nowhere last week to post a De’Von Achane-like performance against the Seahawks, racking up 138 yards and a touchdown on just 9 carries. A lot of that production came in garbage time in a blowout win, but he did get on the field for a drive when the game was still just 7-0, and he tallied 4 carries for 37 yards on that drive. He finished the day with just two carries that went for less than 5 yards. OC Todd Monken has said this week that Mitchell’s performance has earned him more playing time going forward, and I think it’s likely he’ll supplant Justice Hill as the complement to Gus Edwards. Hill has averaged 9 touches per game this season, and Mitchell may see right around that workload in the coming weeks. I’m not ready to plug him into lineups this weekend against a Cleveland defense that ranks 1st in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game, but he should not be sitting on waiver wires right now. He’s an upside RB4 this week and has breakout potential down the stretch.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 10: @Buf.): Javonte Williams is close to full strength and played over 50% of the offensive snaps in Denver’s last two games in weeks 7 & 8. McLaughlin, meanwhile, logged his lowest snaps shares since the first two weeks of the season in those games. They’re still looking to get the ball into his hands when he’s on the field – McLaughlin handled 12 touches on just 17 snaps in those contests – but it’s hard to post useful stat lines on such limited playing time. McLaughlin has been one of the most efficient backs in the league on a per touch basis, racking up 7.44 yards per touch in his last 5 games, and the Bills allow the 3rd-most yards per rush in the league. The outlook for McLaughlin is similar to what it’s been in his last couple of games. He should see 6-8 touches, and that could mean 40-50 yards from scrimmage. It’s risky to count on him to do more than that or get into the end zone.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 10: @TB): Spears continues to play 50%+ of the snaps most weeks, but his production has gone in the wrong direction since Will Levis took over at QB. Spears tallied 55+ scrimmage yards in 4 of Ryan Tannehill’s last 5 starts this season. He’s totaled just 58 yards in Levis’ two starts combined. The issue has been his receiving output. He’s averaged 5.5 yards per target in Tannehill starts, and just 1.3 per target with Levis at the helm, totaling 7 catches for 13 yards on 10 targets. The target number is good to see, but that efficiency is a problem. This week’s matchup does Tyjae no favors. The Bucs have allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to backs. I’d treat him as a dicey RB3/4 option this week.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): If you look at Smith-Njigba’s game log, you’ll see an interesting pattern emerge in his target totals. For all 8 games he’s played, he’s alternated between games with less than 6 targets and games with 6+ targets. The overall target volume has been fairly consistent, with no more than 7 and no fewer than 3 targets in any game, but in every odd-numbered game he’s earned 3, 4, or 5 targets, and in every even-numbered game he’s earned 6 or 7. It’s likely just a coincidence, but I thought it was an oddity worth mentioning. He’s due for fewer than 6 targets this week by that pattern. The trend I’m more interested in from his game log is his yards per target. His production was plagued early in the season by a miniscule aDOT leading to just 62 yards in the first 4 games on a paltry 3.1 yards per target. That changed starting with the Cincinnati game last month, and JSN has now logged at least 9 yards per target in 4 straight games and found the end zone in two of them. He’s the WR33 in PPR points per game over the last 4 weeks and could perform close to that level again facing a Washington defense that allows the 3rd-most WR points per game. His usage isn’t going to lend itself to the kinds of big yardage games we’ve seen from Tank Dell and Jordan Addison, but JSN is fine as a back-end WR3 for PPR leagues this week.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Flowers appears to have hit a rookie wall in the last two weeks. He posted 50+ yards from scrimmage in each of his first 7 professional games, and he’s totaled just 30 yards in the last 2 weeks combined. In week 8 he still earned 7 targets and his catch total kept him from being a complete dud in your lineup, but week 9 was a different story. The Ravens had a field day running the ball and played comfortably ahead all game in a 34-point drubbing of Seattle. Flowers was targeted just once in that game on 33 team passing attempts. Under normal circumstances, I’d expect the Ravens to make a point to get Flowers more involved this week in a ‘squeaky wheel’ kind of game, but the matchup this week doesn’t bode well for that. The Browns allow the 2nd-fewest WR points per game and rank 1st in pass defense DVOA, and their scheme is a bad matchup for Flowers. Zay struggles against press man coverage. He’s put up close to 2 yards per route run against zone coverage this season, but under 1 yard per route run against man, and no team in the league plays more man-to-man defense than the Browns. You could roll the dice on Flowers’ talent winning out here. He’s an explosive player who could succeed in a bad matchup, but I’d treat him as a dicey WR3 option in week 10.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 10: @NE): Downs isn’t practicing this week as of Thursday, and he appears to be on the wrong side of questionable with a knee injury. If he’s able to play this week, it’s not a bad spot to fire him up. Downs had scored 13+ PPR points in 4 straight games prior to getting hurt early against Carolina last Sunday, and the Patriots have allowed the 7th-most WR points per game. Keep tabs on his health status as the week wears on. If he’s good to go, he’s a borderline WR3 option against a New England defense that has allowed 5 different receivers to put up 12+ PPR points in the last 3 games.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Wilson has a few things working in his favor this week – The Cardinals get Kyler Murray back at QB which should open up the passing game, and the Falcons play zone defense at a higher rate than league average. Wilson has played his best football against zone, with 2.17 yards per route run and a 75.5 receiving grade from PFF against zone coverage, both team-high marks by a comfortable margin. Atlanta ranks just 28th in pass defense DVOA, so there is upside here for Wilson, but I’m not sure just how high the ceiling is. The rookie has topped 11 PPR points just once all season. You could take a chance on him if you want, but I’d view him as more of a floor play WR4 type this week, especially as Kyler shakes the rust off after not playing for a year.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): Things have just not come together for Johston the way fantasy managers hoped they would. Mike Williams and Johua Palmer's injuries seemed to open up a golden opportunity for QJ to establish himself, but he’s totaled just 7-64 on 9 targets in the last two games. Another 5-6 targets seem likely this week against Detroit, but the Lions rank 8th in pass defense DVOA and we haven’t seen that Johnston can succeed in good matchups yet, let alone in bad ones like he faces this week. He’s a WR5 option.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 10: @Chi.): Mingo followed up his best fantasy game of the season in week 8 with his worst in week 9. He totaled just 1 catch for 5 yards on 4 targets against a middling Colts’ pass defense. The matchup with the Bears isn’t a daunting one – the Bears rank 30th in pass defense DVOA – but Mingo has scored 6+ PPR points just twice all season. There’s no reason to expect a breakout game here. I’d rather see Mingo go for 6-80 on my bench than for 3-25 in my lineup.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Musgrave took advantage of the Rams' shoddy defense against tight ends last Sunday and logged his best fantasy game of the season. He finished as the TE7 for the week, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance in Pittsburgh this weekend. The Rams are one of the worst defenses in the league against tight ends, and the Steelers are one of the best. Pittsburgh has allowed the 4th-fewest TE points per game and ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing tight ends. In the 3 games prior to last weekend’s outburst against the Rams, Musgrave had averaged just under 6.5 PPR points per game. I’d rank him outside the top 12 tight ends this week in a much tougher matchup.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): Through two-plus games of action with Aidan O’Connell under center for the Raiders, tight ends have managed just an 8% target share with the rookie QB on the field (6 out of 75 targets). Mayer was in a route on 60% of O’Connell’s dropbacks last Sunday, but he was targeted just twice and finished the game with 11 yards. This week’s matchup looks favorable on paper. The Jets allow the fewest WR points per game and allow the 11th-most points per game to the tight end position. This is a week where Mayer should score above his norm, but that norm has been set pretty low with O’Connell at QB. It’ll be a pleasant surprise if he hits 10 PPR points this week. I’d view him as a mid-range TE2 at best for week 10.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Tommy DeVito, NYG (Wk. 10: @Dal.): DeVito was forced into action due to injury for the 2nd straight week last Sunday, and this time Daboll actually let him throw the ball a bit, but only after they fell into a deep hole on the scoreboard. The score was 7-0 when DeVito entered the game, and 17 of his 20 pass attempts for the day came after the Giants had fallen behind 27-0. He’s slated to start in week 10, but it has a chance to be an ugly game against a dangerous Dallas defense. The Cowboys rank 6th in pass defense DVOA, and Vegas views the Giants as a whopping 16.5-point underdog with a pathetic implied point total of just 11 points. I expect the Giants to try to lean on the run game until they can’t due to the scoreboard, but I don’t expect a ton of success for DeVito once he’s forced to throw. This could turn into a snowball-rolling-downhill kind of game where bad turns into worse for the Giants. The Cowboys have won 4 games by 20+ points this season (including a 40-0 win over these Giants in week 1), and this one could certainly be their 5th. DeVito should be viewed as a “break glass in case of emergency” option in superflex leagues, and nothing more than that.
QB Clayton Tune, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): In case you missed the news, everything is pointing to Kyler Murray starting for the Cards at QB this week. There’s still a chance that Murray suffers a setback prior to the game and Tune gets one more start, and if that happens you could make do with Tune as a fringe QB2. Atlanta is a much more favorable matchup than the Browns were last weekend, but I wouldn’t be eager to fire up Tune after he put up just 1.12 fantasy points last week in Cleveland.
QB Jaren Hall, MIN (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Hall suffered a concussion last weekend and watched from the sideline as Josh Dobbs had one of the most miraculous performances in league history, leading the Vikings back from behind despite not knowing the playbook or taking a single practice rep with the team after being traded for mid-week. Even if Hall gets cleared for this week, there’s no way he gets the starting nod over Dobbs. Even if he does start, the Saints rank 9th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 11th-fewest QB points per game. It’s not a great matchup.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 10: @Min.): Miller has logged just 9 touches in the last 4 games and continues to struggle to find opportunities. He did turn a reception last weekend into a 31-yard gain. It was his second 30+ yard catch of the season on just 10 total targets, but the usage just hasn’t been there since Taysom Hill’s breakout began about a month ago. The Vikings have allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game, and you can’t count on more than just a couple of touches against that defense.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 10: vs. SF): Here are Tank Bigsby’s touch totals in his last 6 games played – 3, 2, 4, 3, 3, 2. He hasn’t totaled more than 10 scrimmage yards in any of those games, and he’s scored just 1 TD in that span. There’s no reason to expect a change here.
RB DeWayne McBride, MIN (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Cam Akers went down with a torn Achilles last weekend, ending his season, so it’s possible McBride will be activated from the practice squad. You could pick him up in deeper dynasty leagues if you want to throw a dart, but I don’t feel great about his upside for the rest of the season. McBride was beaten out for the RB2 job by Ty Chandler in training camp, so I’d expect McBride to be 3rd in line behind Chandler and Alexander Mattison for carries. He might not even be active on game day since Kene Nwangwu is a better special teams player than McBride. It’ll be a win for McBride if he’s active for the game and plays a few offensive snaps this week.
WR Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 10: vs. Was.): Bobo logged his lowest route participation rate of the season last weekend and wasn’t targeted while Jaxon Smith-Njigba logged his highest and earned 7 targets. This matchup is a great one for wide receivers – the Commanders have allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game and rank 29th in pass defense DVOA, but Bobo just isn’t playing enough that you can count on him in any lineups. It wouldn’t shock me if he managed to get in the end zone and put up 10 points or so on just a couple of targets, but that’s pretty much the ceiling and it's not likely.
WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 10: @Buf.): Mims has slowly started to see his playing time tick upward – he hit a 40% route participation rate for the first time in week 7, and then he did it again in week 8, but his targets have all but vanished as Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy has stepped up in this offense. Mims has been targeted just twice on 27 routes in the last two games. Is there a chance he gets deep for a big play against the Bills? Sure, they rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, but there’s no way you can rely on that. Mims has totaled just 4 receiving yards (and negative-7 from scrimmage) in his last 4 games.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): Tucker had a nice performance last Sunday on limited opportunities, putting up 2 catches for 52 yards on 3 targets and adding a 4-yard rush for good measure, but he logged a route participation rate of just 36% and essentially shared the WR3 role with Hunter Renfrow and DeAndre Carter. This week he faces off with the Jets, who allow the fewest WR points per game and rank 4th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. This isn’t a great week to bet on Tucker even if his playing time ticks upward.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): Scott has logged a 60% or higher route participation rate in 3 straight games, but he’s totaled just 6.9 PPR points in that span on 8 targets and 3 rushing attempts. There’s no reason to expect much of a jump in those target numbers against a Carolina defense that has faced an average of 26 pass attempts per game in their past 5 games. The way to attack the Panthers is on the ground, and Scott is low in the target pecking order for what should be a low passing volume contest.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 10: @Dal.): Hyatt was starting to break out before Tyrod Taylor suffered a rib injury in week 8, and Daniel Jones’ ACL injury in week 9 is yet another setback for him. He totaled just 2 catches for 19 yards on 5 targets last weekend in a favorable matchup with the Raiders. I wouldn’t count on much more than that this week with Tommy DeVito under center in a tougher matchup with the Cowboys. Dallas ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 10: @Bal.): Tillman’s playing time in week 9 went according to plan with Donovan Peoples-Jones shipped off to Detroit. He logged a 71% route participation rate against Arizona as the team’s clear WR3, but he was targeted just once and tallied only 3 yards. I want to argue that the issue was the lopsided final score limiting passing volume, but that’s just not the case. The Browns still threw the ball 30 times despite rolling to a 27-0 win. I do think the ball will come Tillman’s way a couple more times this week in what should be a much more competitive game with the Ravens, but it’s not a great matchup to do big damage on just a few targets. Baltimore ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game.
TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): Schoonmaker came tantalizingly close to scoring a 4th down TD against the Eagles last Sunday, but replay review showed he was down just short of the goal line, and it was his only target of the game. He’s earned more than 1 target in a game just once all season.
Rookies on byes in Week 10: RBs De’Von Achane & Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Zach Evans, LAR, WR Puka Nacua, LAR, WR Rashee Rice, KC
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Sean Tucker, TB, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Derius Davis, LAC, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Xavier Gipson, NYJ, WR Rakim Jarrett, TB, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Payne Durham, TB
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): Vaughn hasn’t logged a touch in more than a month, but I expect that to change this week in what should be a lopsided contest with a bad Giants’ defense. The Cowboys have won 4 games by 20+ points this season. Vaughn was a healthy scratch for one of those (against the Rams), but in the other 3 games, he averaged 7 touches per game. Dallas enters this game as a 16.5-point favorite, and a blowout win seems highly likely. The Giants rank a miserable 28th in run defense DVOA. Any opportunities against them could have positive results. I’m not sure that you can start him in season-long leagues, but Vaughn could prove to be a worthwhile bargain basement option in Showdown DFS contests, especially if he finds the end zone. Just make sure he isn’t a healthy scratch if you’re considering him.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 10: @Pit.): As expected, with Matthew Stafford sidelined the Packers were not forced to throw a whole lot to beat the Rams. Jordan Love attempted just 26 passes and only 3 of them went in Reed’s direction. It didn’t help Reed that the run-heavy game plan meant Dontayvion Wicks would take a bunch of his snaps. Wicks has 20 pounds on Reed and has the best PFF run blocking grade of any Green Bay receiver (77.1) while Reed has the worst (42.3). I wouldn’t expect Wicks to be on the field nearly as much against the Steelers, who are favored by 3 this week and should keep the Packers from going ultra run-heavy. Assuming Reed is back to his normal role, I’d expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 targets against a defense that allows the 5th-most WR points per game and ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opponent’s WR3. It’s also worth noting that Reed has been targeted on 28.6% of his routes against man coverage, and the Steelers play man-to-man at the 6th-highest rate in the league. Reed is still just 3rd or 4th in line for targets in a low volume passing game, but this week shapes up as one where he’s got some extra upside.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Ten.): Palmer has seen his role gradually increase in recent weeks. He’s now fully vanquished Deven Thompkins for the WR3 role and has logged a route participation rate above 80% in back-to-back games. He’s also totaled 19 targets in the last 4 games. The story with the Bucs is the same every week. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are going to account for about half of the passing targets each week (though that number is slipping in recent weeks), and everyone else is fighting for the leftovers. This is a week where Palmer may feast on those leftovers. The Titans have allowed the 5th-fewest tight end points per game, and they’ve allowed the 2nd-fewest catches and 2nd-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. The vast majority of the aerial damage done to them is by wide receivers. The Titans rank 24th in pass defense DVOA, and 28th in that stat on throws to the opposing team’s WR3. This is a week where Palmer could easily see 6+ targets in a favorable matchup. He could find his way to a WR4 finish or higher.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Iosivas gets a mention here because of the injury status of the Bengals’ starting receivers. Ja’Marr Chase didn’t practice Wednesday as he battles a back injury that has his status for the weekend up in the air, and Tee Higgins suffered his own hamstring injury during that Wednesday practice. If either of them misses this game, Iosivas will play a much larger role than usual. He logged a 30% route participation rate in week 5 with Higgins limited by a rib injury, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number is higher this week if Higgins or Chase sits. The Texans have allowed just the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 26th in pass defense DVOA. Houston’s passing defense has really tightened up around the end zone, allowing just 7 total passing scores in their first 8 games (only 2 to wide receivers), but Joe Burrow has been on a tear lately, piling up 10 TD passes in the last 4 games. I’d bet on Burrow rather than the Houston defense. I wouldn’t expect a 20-point outburst or anything crazy here from Iosivas, but 3-to 4 receptions and a possible TD are certainly in play if one of the starters is out.
Update: Tee Higgins missed practice Thursday and is expected to miss this game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
