Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the final week of the NFL season. Most fantasy leagues have already wrapped up for the year, but some of you may play in leagues with week 18 title games, and after the Bills/Bengals game was cancelled last week, your league may have decided to include week 18 scores as part of your contingency plan to settle a disputed championship. I’m still here to help you figure out what to do with your rookies if you still have to set a lineup. There are also plenty of fun DFS contests and prop bets you can get involved in for week 18 as well, and I want to provide some insights into those as well.
Week 18 is typically a chaotic one for fantasy stats with a bunch of unexpected names populating the leaderboard. If you don’t believe me, here are some of last season’s top performers from week 18…
QB – Davis Mills (QB4), Drew Lock (QB9)
RB – Brandon Bolden (RB8), D’Ernest Johnson (RB9), Duke Johnson (RB10), Kenneth Gainwell (RB11), Corey Clement (RB13), Ameer Abdullah (RB15), Chris Evans (RB17), Jerick McKinnon (RB19), Patrick Taylor (RB20), KeShawn Vaughn (RB24), Demetric Felton (RB25), JaQuan Hardy (RB33)
WR – Danny Amendola (WR1), Cedrick Wilson (WR3), Jauan Jennings (WR5), Kalif Raymond (WR16), Ihmir Smith-Marsette (WR20), Tre’Quan Smith (WR22)
TE – Josiah Deguara (TE5), Brock Wright (TE10), Tyree Jackson (TE13), Zach Gentry (TE17)
The biggest key to unlocking week 18 is deciphering which teams actually care about winning. It’s critical to understand the seeding implications for any teams that are in the playoff picture this week. Know which teams can’t improve or hurt their seeding at all – the Bucs, the Giants, and possibly the Chargers if the Bengals win in the early afternoon. Know which teams could move up but need unlikely help and would get minimal benefit – the Vikings and possibly the Cowboys. And know which teams desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive - the Steelers, Seahawks, Packers, Dolphins, Patriots, Titans, Jaguars and possibly the Lions can all either clinch a playoff spot or keep their playoff hopes alive with a win.
This week’s outlooks will lean heavily on team motivation, and will have more of a slant toward DFS and prop bets than usual with most regular fantasy leagues already done. There are fewer trustworthy starts among the rookies this week, but there are more fun sleepers to talk about that usual as some rookies who have been backups all year get an extended opportunity.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s dive into the fun of week 18…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 18: vs. LAR): Walker has tallied 11.9 PPR points in each of his last 10 healthy games, and the Seahawks shouldn’t deviate from their normal game plan since they need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Rams rank 13th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and have allowed 19+ PPR points to 4 different running backs in their past 4 games. KW3 has his usual outlook as a solid RB2, and Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite who should be able to run the ball. Walker comes into the week 64 yards short of 1,000 rushing yards for the season. I’d expect the Seahawks to make sure he gets there if he has a chance.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 18: vs. Ari.): Purdy has thrown for at least 2 touchdowns in 5 straight games, and for 200+ yards in 4 of those games. The Cardinals have limited 3 of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 10 fantasy points, but those 3 QBs were Mac Jones, Brett Rypien, and Desmond Ridder. The Cardinals have still lost 6 straight games, and the 49ers have a Vegas implied total of 27 points this week. There are volume concerns for Purdy since the 49ers are 2-TD favorites and likely won’t have to throw a ton, but Purdy should be a good bet to finish as a solid QB2 again this week. The 49ers can still earn a playoff bye with a little help, so they’re not going to hold back.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 18: vs. TB): Allgeier is one of my favorite running back plays of the week. The Bucs have nothing to play for, and the Falcons would love to go out on a high note. Allgeier has averaged just over 20 touches per game and 18.3 PPR points per game over the last 3 weeks, and he enters week 18 just 100 rushing yards away from 1,000 for the season, and 123 away from the Falcons’ rookie rushing record. I expect Allgeier to get a lot of run in this game, and if he gets it going early, the Falcons are going to make an effort to get him to 100 yards and possibly that rookie record. He’s a prime option for the captain spot in showdown contests, and I’d look at betting overs on his player props this week as well. He has true top-12 upside this week.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 18: @LV): Pacheco’s streak of 7 straight games with 80+ scrimmage yards came to an end last weekend, but he should be in line for a solid performance in week 18. The Chiefs are 9-point favorites and have the highest implied point total of the week at just over 31. Kansas City needs to win this game to clinch a first round bye, so they should play it pretty close to normal. The Raiders have allowed the 5th-most RB points per game and rank 21st in run defense DVOA. Pacheco’s usage near the goal line remains too inconsistent to view him as more than an RB2 option, but I like his chances of getting above 80 yards again.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 18: vs. NE): Cook set his season-highs in snap share, carries, and targets in Buffalo’s first meeting with the Patriots, and he was effective in that contest. The rookie topped 100 scrimmage yards, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills turn to him for an expanded role once again this weekend. Cook has played his 4 highest snap shares of the season in the last 4 games. There’s a low floor here but Cook has a higher ceiling this week than Isiah Pacheco.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 18: vs. Det.): Watson has been Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target for much of the second half of the season. He didn’t put up much of a stat line last weekend as he was limited by a hip injury, but he still earned a target on 29% of his routes run. He’s a week healthier this week and should play closer to a full-time role Sunday night. The matchup this week is as good as it gets for a deep threat like Watson. No team has allowed as many completed air yards per completion as the Lions this year. In fact, no team even comes close. Pass defense is the weakest part of the Lions’ football team, and Watson is the most likely Packers’ pass catcher to take advantage of that. We’ve seen him score multiple touchdowns 3 times this year, and he has a real chance to do it for a 4th time in this one. There’s still a boom-or-bust element here, but Watson has a top-5 WR ceiling this week. He should be a staple in DFS tournament lineups.
WRs Chris Olave & Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 18: vs. Car.): Both the Panthers and Saints are eliminated from playoff contention, which means they’ll likely play this out like a normal game and try to end their seasons on a high note. The Panthers have already been one of the worst WR defenses in the league, allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to the position and ranking 27th in pass defense DVOA, but their pass defense could be even worse this week with star EDGE rusher Brian Burns popping up as questionable late in the week with an ankle injury. Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson are questionable for the Saints as well. If Taysom misses this game, it could mean more overall passing volume and more red zone opportunities for Olave and Shaheed. If Juwan Johnson sits, that means less target competition for the WR duo. Both receivers have top-15 upside in a game where the Saints may as well let it all hang out. The Panthers allowed 10-207-3 to Mike Evans and 9-120 to Chris Godwin last weekend with Jaycee Horn now on IR. There’s a big ceiling for the receivers if the Saints want to press the issue. Olave is 155 yards away from Michael Thomas’ franchise rookie receiving record. Don’t be surprised if the Saints make a push to get him there if he gets off to a fast start in this game.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Mia.): The Jets announced that it will be Joe Flacco starting the finale this week, and that means Wilson will probably be a safe WR3 even with the Jets eliminated from playoff contention. The Dolphins rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, and in Flacco’s 3 starts early this season Wilson averaged 11 targets per game and put up stat lines of 4-52, 8-102-2, and 6-60. It’s possible that the Jets cut back on his playing time a bit with their season fate decided, but I think there’s too much ceiling here to sit him if you’re in an actual fantasy matchup this week.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 18: vs. TB): London’s usage has exploded over the last month. He’s averaged 10 targets and 77 receiving yards per game in his last 4 games, and he’s put those numbers up in spite of Atlanta remaining the run-heaviest offense in the league. 47% of the team’s passing yards have gone to London in those 4 games. Atlanta is favored this week, so they could be even more run-heavy than usual, but London is a good bet for 7-8 targets against a Tampa defense that will be missing several key players this weekend, including their CB1 Carlton Davis and team sack leader Vita Vea. The low passing volume caps London’s ceiling, but he should be a solid WR3 again this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 18: vs. Cle.): Warren has been handling an increased workload in recent weeks, averaging 11 touches per game in the last 3 contests, and the Browns are one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranking 29th in run defense DVOA. Najee Harris has averaged 23 touches per game over that same span. This is a do-or-die game for the Steelers’ playoff chances, so they should still rely heavily on Najee. There’s upside for Warren, but his workload is far from safe, and you’ll likely be disappointed by his output if he doesn’t get into the end zone. The Steelers have an implied point total of just 21 points this week. I’d view Warren as a dicey RB3.
RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Mia.): Knight’s poor performance against the Jaguars in week 16 resulted in a big dent in his playing time last Sunday. Bam was on the field for just 21% of the offensive snaps against Seattle, the first time he’s played fewer than 40% of the snaps in any of the 6 games he’s been active for. Ty Johnson operated as the lead back in the committee, and there’s no way you can count on Knight stepping back into that lead role this Sunday. The Dolphins rank 6th in run defense DVOA, and I wouldn’t expect much more production from Bam than we saw last week (44 scrimmage yards).
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 18: @Atl.): Tampa Bay has nothing to gain by winning this week, so I wouldn’t expect to see much of Rachaad or Leonard Fournette in this game. It’s likely to be a Ke’Shawn Vaughn game in the backfield, just like week 18 last year. I’d expect the starters to play a few series to stay fresh for the postseason, but I’d be surprised if White gets to double-digit touches.
RB Brian Robinson, WAS (Wk. 18: vs. Dal.): The Commanders bowed out of playoff contention with a whimper last weekend, barely showing up against a mediocre Browns’ team. Dallas has reason to be motivated to win this game with a division title and possible 1 seed still in play, and the Commanders have none. Washington has turned to rookie Sam Howell at QB, so it could be a shaky day for the offense as a whole. There’s no guarantee that Robinson sees his usual workload – he could give way to Jonathan Williams more often – and game script should prevent the Commanders from running a bunch as a touchdown underdog. The Cowboys allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game, and rank 5th in run defense DVOA. It all adds up to a probable floor game for Robinson.
Update: Brian Robinson Jr. has been ruled out for week 18
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 18: vs. Cle.): Pickens has 50+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games, but he hasn’t shown much ceiling since the Steelers shifted to a more run-heavy offensive approach in the second half of the season. Starting in week 12, the Steelers made a commitment to the run game that has gotten their season turned around. The Steelers averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game prior to week 12, and just 29.1 per game since. Pickens’ volume has taken a hit as a result. The rookie saw 6+ targets come his way in 6 of the first 10 games this season (more than 6 in three of them), and he’s reached 6 targets just once in the last 6 games. His targets are typically far enough downfield that he can still post respectable stat lines on 4-5 targets, but it’s hard to get to double-digit points that way unless you score a touchdown. For the season, the Browns have allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game, and most of the guys who have hurt them are truly elite receivers. In their past 10 games, only 7 receivers have reached 12 fantasy points (half-PPR) against Cleveland. Three of those receivers rank in the top 7 in fantasy points per game this year (Tyreek, Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs), and another 2 rank in the top-18 (Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin). If Pickens gets to double-digit points, it would be a successful day.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 18: vs. Dal.): Dotson has earned 6+ targets in 4 straight games, and tallied at least 50 yards and a TD in 3 of them, and Dallas has been bleeding points to wide receivers since starting CB Anthony Brown went on IR. They’ve allowed 8 different receivers to score 12+ PPR points in the last 4 games, but Dotson’s QB situation could prove to be a problem. The Commanders will turn to Sam Howell to make his first career start this weekend, and the uncertainty that comes with that means Dotson is a very risky option in fantasy lineups this week. The Commanders are officially eliminated from playoff contention, so don’t be surprised if they don’t play their starters a full complement of snaps alongside the rookie QB.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Thornton has quietly moved into full-time role for the Patriots in recent weeks. He’s played at least 88% of the offensive snaps in 4 straight games, but it hasn’t led to huge production. Last week was the first time in any of those games that he topped 30 receiving yards. The rookie has big play upside, but he’s unlikely to cash in on it with Mac Jones throwing him the ball against a Buffalo defense that ranks 9th in pass defense DVOA. Tre’Davious White has been back in a full-time role for 4 games for the Bills, and in that time the only receivers to reach 11+ fantasy points against them (half-PPR) have been Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 18: vs. Det.): As the games have gotten more important for Green Bay, Doubs’ playing time has dwindled. He’s operated as the WR4 in this offense over the past few weeks with Christian Watson and Randall Cobb healthy. That doesn’t mean he can’t have a productive day against the Lions, who allow the 4th-most WR points per game and rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA, but his limited playing time makes him much more volatile than the other Green Bay receivers. Doubs has tallied at least 4 targets in each of the last 3 games, but Watson left one of those games early and was given a lighter workload last week as he recovered. Doubs’ prices on DraftKings ($4,400 in full slate contests and $5,200 for showdown contests) are a little high given that there isn’t much of a floor for the rookie. I’d expect Rodgers to lean on the receivers he trusts most with the playoffs on the line.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 18: @Atl.): The Falcons have allowed the 4th-most tight end points per game, and rank 30th in pass defense DVOA, but I can’t imagine Otton plays a ton in a game that Bucs have no need to win. Otton hasn’t made the most of his opportunities in the last couple weeks anyway, pulling in just 4 catches for 29 yards on 13 targets in the last two games. I’m not sure I’d consider him even a TE2 in this game. It could be a Ko Kieft week at tight end for the Bucs.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 18: vs. Cle.): There are no surprises with Pickett this week. He still hasn’t put up 2 or more TDs in any game he’s started this season, and he’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 5 of his last 7 full games played. The Steelers should be going all-out this weekend with their playoff hopes still alive, but Pickett has consistently shown us that he doesn’t have much upside beyond the low-end QB2 range, and the Browns have allowed the 2nd-fewest QB points per game.
QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 18: vs. TB): You might be tempted to consider Ridder in DFS lineups since he’s facing a Tampa Bay team that will be resting a lot of starters, but Atlanta just doesn’t throw the ball much when they’re winning. In their 6 wins this season, the Falcons have attempted more than 20 passes in just 2 of them, and thrown for 200+ yards in just 2 of them. If the game goes the way Vegas thinks it will (Atlanta is favored by 4 points), there just isn’t any extra passing upside for Ridder. He’s not a top-20 QB option this week.
RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 18: @SF): James Conner has been ruled out for week 18, so Ingram should be on the field for more than the 1 snap he played last week, but it was Corey Clement who took over the backfield after Conner was knocked out last week. The 49ers rank 1st in run defense DVOA and allow the fewest RB points per game, so Ingram has little hope of a productive day unless he gets a workhorse role, and that just seems highly unlikely.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 18: @Sea.): The Seahawks allow the 2nd-most RB points per game, but Kyren has averaged fewer than 4 touches per game in his last five games, and the Rams haven’t played a meaningful game in several weeks. Having nothing to play for this week shouldn’t mean a bigger workload for Williams.
RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 18: @NO): Blackshear could see some extra playing time this week with the team now eliminated from the division title hunt, but it’s impossible to count on it being a significant amount of extra playing time. Blackshear played 6 or fewer snaps in 4 of the last 5 games.
RBs Hassan Haskins & Julius Chestnut, TEN (Wk. 18: @Jax.): Derrick Henry is ready to go for week 18, and that means he’s going to carry the load this week. The Titans’ season is on the line and no one other than Henry is likely to get more than a few touches in this backfield.
WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 18: @GB): Williams has now been active for 5 games this season, but he has just 2 touches to show for it (though both of those touches went for at least 40 yards). The rookie’s playing time has been climbing – he set season-highs last week with a 31% route participation rate and 3 targets – but he remains nothing more than a big play dart throw. The Packers have allowed 4 completions of 35+ yards in their last 2 games, and those big plays are what you need to hope for from Williams if you start him in any format.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 18: @LV): Kansas City needs a win this weekend to ensure they get a 1st round playoff bye, so I wouldn’t expect any big changes to the game plan or player usage unless this game gets out of hand. Kansas City is a 9-point favorite, so it very well could get out of hand, but last weekend is the only time since the start of December that Moore tallied 10+ receiving yards. I’d be surprised if he exceeds the 3-33 stat line he put up last Sunday.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 18: vs. Hou.): Pierce’s playing time took a step forward when Jeff Saturday took over as head coach, but his production went backwards. Pierce played at least 70% of the offensive snaps just twice in 8 games under Frank Reich, but he topped 35 receiving yards in 6 of them and posted 60+ yards 4 times. He’s been at 70% or more of the snaps played in 6 of 7 games since Saturday took over, but he’s reached 30 yards just once, and put up a goose egg 3 times. The Texans allow the 3rd-fewest WR points per game. Don’t expect a turnaround for Pierce here.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 18: @Pit.): Bell is no more likely to have a breakout performance this week than fellow Browns’ rookie receivers Daylen Baldwin and Michael Woods II. The trio has a combined 11 targets in the last 4 weeks, and none has earned more than 3 targets in any one game in that span. They’re all just low-upside dart throws.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 18: vs. Hou.): Nick Foles suffered a rib injury last week and will miss the season finale. The Colts will turn back to Sam Ehlinger at QB in this game. In Ehlinger’s two starts this season, he averaged 152 passing yards per game, and only 8.5% of those yards went to tight ends. Woods has caught for 35+ yards just 3 times this season, and I wouldn’t put money on him getting there a 4th time this week.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 18: @Phi.): The Giants don’t figure to play their starters a whole lot with the team locked in as the 6-seed, so we could see a bit more of Chris Myarick and Nick Vannett this week while Bellinger spends more time on the bench. There isn’t enough upside to consider Bellinger.
Rookies who may as well be on byes: RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, RB Snoop Conner, JAX, RBs Pierre Strong & Kevin Harris, NE, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI, TE Isaiah Likely, BAL, TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 18: vs. NYJ): Thompson will get the start this weekend, and although this matchup looks tough on paper, the Jets don’t have much to play for this week. Thompson has struggled when he’s been used in relief, but he was off to a strong start in his only start of the season before leaving that game with injury (he threw for 89 yards on the first 2 drives of the game vs Minnesota). Thompson is a risky play in any format, but he has electric weapons, the Dolphins need to win this game, and the Jets might not play with their usual defensive vigor. Thompson costs just $4,800 on DraftKings, and just $6,000 for showdown contests. This feels like a spot where we could see a surprise top-10 performance.
QB Sam Howell, WAS (Wk. 18: vs. Dal.): Howell will make his first career start on Sunday, and it comes in a tough spot against a good Dallas team that needs to win to keep hopes of a division title alive. The Cowboys rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 7th-fewest QB points per game for the year, but they’ve also been struggling since losing cornerback Anthony Brown for the season. Over the last 4 games without him, Dallas has allowed an average of 280 passing yards and 2 passing scores per game to the following combination of QBs: Davis Mills, Jeff Driskel, Trevor Lawrence, Gardner Minshew, and Joshua Dobbs. Howell has good enough weapons that he could have a passable fantasy performance in his debut. I don’t really know what that means for where you could use him this week, but don’t be surprised if Howell winds up as a high-end QB2 this week.
RBs Tyrion Davis-Price & Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 18: vs. Ari.): The 49ers need to win this week to keep their hopes of a 1st-round bye alive, and Arizona has nothing to play for and will be missing their QB1, RB1, and WR1 for this game. This game has the makings of a huge rout, and if that comes to fruition the 49ers will be handing off to their backup running backs a lot in the 2nd half. Elijah Mitchell returns from injury this week, so he should get a good handful of carries to shake off the rust before the playoffs, but it should be either Mason or TDP handling the bulk of the 2nd half carries if the game is a blowout. Arizona allows the 4th-most RB points per game, so there’s an opportunity for a productive day on just those second half carries. Pay attention to who is inactive here. One of Mason or TDP could be inactive with Elijah back. If both are active, I’d prioritize Mason.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 18: @Den.): You need to keep your head on a swivel if you’re planning to use Spiller anywhere…his viability depends entirely on the Ravens/Bengals game in the early afternoon. If the Bengals win that game, the Chargers would be 100% locked into the 5th seed and have no need to win this game. If the Ravens win, the door is still open for the Chargers to fall to 6th with a loss, and there’s no way the Chargers want that to happen. As the 5-seed, they’d be facing either the Jaguars or Titans, both of whom will come up short of 10 wins this season. As the 6-seed, they’d likely face one of the Bills, Bengals, or Chiefs. If Baltimore wins early, you can’t start Spiller. The Chargers will likely play their normal starters. If the Bengals win, it opens the door for Spiller to get a lead back workload against a Denver defense that allows the 9th-most RB points per game and ranks 22nd in run defense DVOA. Spiller costs just $4,800 on DraftKings for full slate contests, and just $400 for showdown contests. There is some added risk here since the Chargers have 3 backup running backs who could get some run. Joshua Kelley has been the RB2 whenever he’s healthy, and Larry Rountree has been active ahead of Spiller each of the last two weeks as the RB3. I’ve got a hunch that the Chargers will sit Kelley along with Ekeler if their playoff fate is already decided, and that Rountree has only been playing ahead of Spiller because he’s a better special teamer. Make sure to check the team inactives before finalizing any lineups with a Chargers’ RB in them.
RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 18: vs. KC): The Raiders don’t have a good reason to continue to run Josh Jacobs into the ground now that they’ve been eliminated from the playoff hunt, and that means White could finally get a real opportunity at playing time against a middling Chiefs’ defense. Kansas City ranks 17th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 16th-most RB points per game. Josh Jacobs hasn’t practiced all week and is listed as questionable for this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up inactive. White doesn’t have huge upside in a game where the Raiders should be facing negative game script for much of the day, but he can certainly provide a positive return at his DFS prices. He costs the minimum on DraftKings for multi-game slates, and just $200 in showdown contests. If Jacobs sits, White probably sees double-digit touches.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 18: @Jax.): Burks was a focal point in the passing game in Josh Dobbs’ first start last week, tallying 4-66 on 8 targets and adding a 20-yard rush against Dallas. The Jaguars rank 29th in pass defense DVOA, and I expect the Titans to throw a little more than they want to as 6.5-point underdogs. We’ve seen Burks produce when given opportunities, and he should get plenty of them this week against the Jaguars. Joshua Dobbs may have more success in the passing game with Derrick Henry back to draw defensive attention as well. I like Burks to finish as a top-30 WR this week.
WR Jalen Nailor, MIN (Wk. 18: @Chi.): Nailor made a splash in garbage time against the Packers last weekend, pulling in 3 catches for 89 yards and a score on just 9 snaps. Minnesota is still in contention for the 2-seed, but they’d need the 49ers to lose as a 2-touchdown favorite for that to become a reality. The smart play would be to rest their starters, and that means Nailor could see some extended playing time against a defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA. Nailor was a downfield weapon at Michigan State, averaging more than 18 yards per catch in each of his last 2 college seasons, and the Bears allow the 3rd-highest yards per completion in the league. If it sounds like the Vikings are going to rest their starters, Nailor is going to be a steal in all DFS formats. He costs the minimum for the main slate on DraftKings, and just $1,200 for showdown contests.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 18: @Jax.): The switch from Malik Willis to Joshua Dobbs at QB returns relevance to the Titans’ pass catchers for week 18. The Titans need to win this game to make the playoffs and win the division, and Dobbs gives them a better chance to do that than Willis. Tennessee will undoubtedly lean on their workhorse Derrick Henry in this game, but they’re a touchdown underdog, and game script may dictate that they have to throw more than they’d like to. The Jaguars allow the 9th-most TE points per game and rank 29th in pass defense DVOA, and Okonkwo posted a line of 6-46-1 in the first meeting with Jacksonville. Okonkwo’s playing time was limited last week, but he was targeted on nearly 40% of his routes run with Dobbs at QB. If he plays a more normal complement of snaps this week, he’s got top-10 TE upside, and costs just $4,800 for showdown contests. He’s a playmaker the Titans should look to get involved.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 18: @SF): McBride had easily his best game of the season last week, putting up 7-71-1 on 10 targets against the Falcons. It was the only game this season that David Blough has started at QB, and it’ll be Blough under center again this week. The 49ers are a significantly tougher matchup for tight ends than the Falcons were last week, but Arizona will have to throw to someone and DeAndre Hopkins has been ruled out again. There should be plenty of targets coming McBride’s way again this week, and even with the tough matchup McBride has top-10 upside on Sunday.
That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully this info helps you for week 18, and hopefully it’s been a help to you in sorting out what to do with your rookies throughout the season. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
