Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the first round of the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. Hopefully you’ve managed to secure a first-round bye and don’t have to worry about coming up with a win this week because Covid-19 and injuries are wreaking havoc on the league. Over 100 NFL players have been added to the Covid reserve list this week and many fantasy-relevant players still have statuses that remain up in the air. You need be vigilant this week about staying up to date on the latest Covid news, because new names have been getting added to the list daily, and you don’t want to get stuck taking a zero from a starter in the playoffs. Plenty of rookies are going to see increased opportunity in this crucial week due to players ahead of them being out, and I’m here to walk you through what to expect from those rookies this week.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 15…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Ten.): Harris had one of his best games of the season last Thursday night, and while the Titans seem like a tough matchup on paper, allowing the 2^nd-fewest running back points per game, they also rank just 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. This isn’t a matchup to run away from. He’s not an ideal DFS target this week, but you can’t sit him in season-long leagues.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 15: @Den.): Chase finally posted another ceiling game last Sunday against the 49ers, tallying 83 scrimmage yards and 2 scores. It was his first game over 60 yards since week 7, but it was his fourth 20-point fantasy day of the season. You can’t leave that kind of upside on your bench in the fantasy playoffs. The Broncos are good, but not great at limiting WR points. They allow the 11^th-fewest WR points per game, but rank 19^th in pass defense DVOA. It’s not a matchup to run away from.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 15: vs. Min.): You might not have noticed it since there was a bye week and an injury absence mixed in, but Fields has finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in each of the last 3 full games he’s played, and there’s no reason he can’t make it 4 straight against the Vikings. He’s been more aggressive running the football in recent weeks, averaging 56 rushing yards per game in his last 5 full games with more than 35 yards in each contest. The Vikings have allowed the 9^th-most QB rushing yards per game. Fields also could be in line for a ceiling passing game. In the three games where he’s topped 200 passing yards, he’s connected on downfield throws, averaging 15.7 yards per completion. The Vikings have given up the 4^th-most yards per completion on the season and allowed the 3^rd-most QB fantasy points per game. There’s always risk with Fields due to low passing volume (only 2 games of 30+ pass attempts), but he’s got a big ceiling this week and should be treated as a top-10 QB play.

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Jones doesn’t have the big ceiling that Justin Fields offers, but this is a week where he should be a very strong QB2 in superflex and 2-quarterback leagues. You know the Patriots’ game plan is going to be conservative like it always is, but the Colts rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-fewest rushing TDs in the league. They’ve also allowed the 2^nd-most passing TDs and the 12^th-most QB fantasy points per game. I’d be less than stoked to start him as a QB1 this week, but I expect 200+ yards and a pair of scores, which would make him a high-end QB2.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Keep a close eye on the injury report if you’re considering starting Mitchell, and make sure you have a backup plan ready since Mitchell doesn’t play until the late afternoon Sunday, but if Elijah is able to play against the Falcons he should probably be in lineups. The Falcons rank 23^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game. In his last 3 games played, Mitchell has averaged 25 carries and 3 targets per game and the 49ers are 9-point favorites against Atlanta. Even if the 49ers limit his workload a bit, he could still post a top-12 performance in this matchup.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): Vic Fangio wasted no time getting Melvin Gordon back into his normal role upon his return from injury last week, pushing Javonte back into a 50-50 split of the backfield work again. If you have more reliable options this week, don’t be afraid to sit Javonte. I know he’s scored touchdowns in each of the last 3 games, but two of those games came against bottom-5 run defenses, and in the other game he had a workhorse role. The Bengals rank 10^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back rushing yards per game. I only lean towards starting Williams because of how messy the situation is with Covid-19 and injuries this week. You know Williams is a threat for 60+ yards and a score every week, even in tougher matchups, but be aware that his outlook isn’t quite as rosy this week as it’s been. I’d treat Williams as a low-end RB2 at best.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (WK. 15: vs. Was.): Smith’s usage has been inconsistent since the Eagles shifted to a run-heavy approach in week 8, and his production bottomed out the last two games with just 4 targets, 2 catches, and fewer than 25 yards for Smith in each game. The Eagles know they have to get the ball to Smith more often, and they may have less of a choice on the matter this week with Quez Watkins on the Covid list. Watkins also saw 8 total targets in those last two games. Jalen Hurts is 50-50 to be able to play this week, and it’s decidedly better for Smith’s outlook if Hurts is able to go, but the matchup this week is a good one. Washington allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game and will likely be without starting corner Kendall Fuller and starting safety Kameron Curl. There’s a low floor for Smith, especially if Minshew starts at QB, but this feels more likely to be a ceiling week for the rookie.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): The Lions are running very short on pass catchers right now, and St. Brown has done an admirable job of picking up the slack in the last two weeks. ARSB has been targeted 12 times in each of the last two games, posting WR6 and WR27 PPR finishes in those contests. Arizona isn’t an easy matchup. They rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA, and slot corner Byron Murphy has allowed a passer rating of just 76.2 on throws into his coverage. The ball is still going to find its way to St. Brown. The Lions will be without TJ Hockenson, and likely without D’Andre Swift as well, and they’re probably going to be playing from behind as usual. St. Brown should be a solid PPR WR3 this week on volume alone. I’d give him a slight downgrade if Swift is able to play, but even then, I’d probably lean towards starting him.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Ten.): The Titans have been stingy against tight ends this season, allowing the 6^th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, but Freiermuth has found the end zone in 5 of his last 7 games, including one score last week against a Minnesota defense that allows the 10^th-fewest TE points, and 2 scores against a Chicago defense that allows the 7^th-fewest TE points. Since JuJu Smith-Schuster went down with injury, Freiermuth has averaged nearly 6 targets per game and has earned a 31% target share in the red zone. His TD upside keeps him in the low-end TE1 range, even in tough matchups.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 15: @Jax.): Mills was impressive for much of last week’s game against the Seahawks, completing his first 15 passes of the game and finishing with 331 yards and a score. On paper, a matchup with Jacksonville, who ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA, seems like an ideal spot for another strong performance, but Mills has usually done the opposite of what you’d expect on paper. His three best fantasy performances have all come against defenses that rank in the top-8 at limiting fantasy points for QBs. The Jaguars actually allow the 9^th-fewest QB points per game, so maybe they fit into that bucket as well, but I’d rather not risk starting Mills as my QB2 with the season at stake. I expect the Jaguars to play inspired football now that they’re no longer cursed with Urban Meyer as their head coach.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 15: @Mia.): Carter is expected to return from IR this week, but he returns to a tough matchup. Carter will likely have a big role for the Jets in this one, but in their last 6 games the Dolphins have only allowed 1 running back to reach 10 fantasy points (Saquon Barkley). You’ll need a big receiving day from Carter for him to even post an RB3 performance with the Jets unlikely to do much running as 8.5-point underdogs. I wouldn’t start Carter in playoff matchups unless you’re desperate.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Stevenson has been very impressive with his opportunities, but Damien Harris is trending in the right direction to play this week and the Colts are a tough matchup. They rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back points per game. Rhamondre has rushed for 60+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games, but most of those games were blowout wins and New England is a 2-point underdog in this one. You could do worse than Stevenson if you’re desperate, but this feels like it’ll be a floor game for him.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Week 14 was a clear illustration that Hubbard’s role as lead back is going to look a bit different with Cam Newton at QB rather than Sam Darnold. Hubbard averaged 20 touches per game in his 5-game stint as the lead back with Darnold under center. He touched the ball just 10 times last Sunday as Cam Newton handled more than a third of the team’s designed rushing attempts and vultured a goal-line score. Hubbard still got into the end zone once himself, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat trip this week against a Buffalo defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. Ameer Abdullah is going to play in passing situations and the Panthers are double-digit underdogs this weekend. Abdullah is the one worth considering this week unless you expect Carolina to play from ahead and have success running the ball.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Bateman posted the first 100-yard game of his career last week, with all the yards coming from the arm of Tyler Huntley. It’s still up in the air whether Lamar Jackson will be able to return this week or not, but Bateman is a risky starting option in your playoff matchups no matter who is at QB. Much of his week 14 production came during a furious rally with the Ravens trailing by multiple scores. He didn’t see his first target of the game until the Ravens were trailing by 21 points, and 4 of his 7 catches came in the last 3 minutes of the game. He’s been impressive when given chances, but those chances only seem to occur when the team is desperate. Over 71% of his yards have come with the Ravens trailing on the scoreboard. The Ravens may find themselves in more desperation time in week 15 as they’re 4.5-point underdogs, but the Packers are a better pass defense than the Browns and may get Jaire Alexander back this week. I view Bateman as an upside WR4 option in this one.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 15: @Jax.): Collins had a breakout game in week 14, garnering a season-high 10 targets, and turning them into 5 catches for 69 yards. It was the kind of week we’ve been waiting for from the rookie, but he had totaled just 6 catches for 62 yards in the previous 4 games. I wouldn’t be willing to bank on Collins repeating his best game of the season in the fantasy playoffs, even in a plus matchup with the Jaguars. If you believe in Davis Mills and the Texans passing game this week, they could be value DFS plays, but I wouldn’t bet on them in playoff matchups.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 15: @Det.): In all honesty, I could probably move Moore down to the rookies you already know to sit, but I want to make sure you aren’t getting any ideas just because DeAndre Hopkins is out, and because the Cardinals are facing the hapless Lions. We’ve already seen that it’s Antoine Wesley who will see increased snaps when Hopkins is out, not Rondale, and Moore’s current usage just isn’t conducive to fantasy production. He’s got an average target depth of just 1.7 yards downfield, and Detroit allows the 6^th-fewest yards after catch in the league. Moore’s best hope for production is if James Conner misses this game and he gets used more often as a rusher in what should be a blowout win, but you can’t count on that.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 15: @SF): I know if you have Pitts, you likely don’t have any better options to play this week than him, but this isn’t a great spot for him. The 49ers have allowed just one tight end to reach 40 receiving yards in their last 12 games, and if you have Pitts on your team, you already know he doesn’t score touchdowns, so the catches and yards are crucial. Pitts has scored just one touchdown all season. If you want to search for a silver lining here, Pitts is still a freakish athlete capable of a big game, and that one tight end who topped 40 yards against San Francisco was CJ Uzomah just last week. Just don’t be surprised if we get another 3-catch, 30-yard type of performance from Pitts again in this one.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 15: @Mia.): The Dolphins have held 3 of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 10 fantasy points, and all 5 to fewer than 18. Wilson has started 9 games this season. He’s posted multiple TDs 3 times, and just 1 TOTAL touchdown in the other 6 starts. I would not expect a ceiling week in this matchup, and I certainly wouldn’t take a chance on it with the season on the line.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 15: vs. Was.): Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard are both practicing in a limited capacity this week and seem to be on track to play. Gainwell hasn’t played more than 20 snaps in any game Howard has been active for this season. Even if one of Sanders or Howard sit, Washington allows the 12^th-fewest RB points per game. Gainwell should be left parked on the bench and not in your playoff lineups.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 15: @Phi.): Patterson hasn’t taken on a bigger role in the last couple weeks, even with JD McKissic sidelined due to a concussion. Instead, he split the backup work with Wendell Smallwood in week 13 and Jonathan Williams in week 14. Antonio Gibson has been seeing his largest snap shares of the season in the past 3 weeks, and there just isn’t enough work leftover for Patterson to have value.  

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 15: vs. Min.): Herbert played fewer snaps than Damien Williams in week 14. It was the first time he played fewer snaps than Williams since week 4. He’s off the fantasy radar so long as David Montgomery is healthy.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): Jefferson had a golden opportunity last week with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams both sidelined…and he played just 3 offensive snaps as the unknown Craig Reynolds functioned as the team’s lead back with Godwin Igwebuike playing on passing downs. Jermar isn’t worth a roster spot right now in any redraft format.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 15: vs. LV): Felton could see a few more snaps this week with Kareem Hunt out with an ankle injury, but after 2 muffed punts a week ago it’s hard to see the Browns giving him much of an extended role. He’ll still be playing behind Nick Chubb and D’Ernest Johnson.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 15: @Den.): Evans has been inactive in each of the last two weeks with an ankle injury, and he’s logged more than 10 snaps in a game just once all season.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 15: vs. KC): Rountree has been inactive for each of the last 3 weeks, and even if he were suddenly thrust into the RB2 role this week, I wouldn’t expect much of a workload in a game where the Chargers will need to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs.

WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Skowronek is worth mentioning because he’ll be forced into a much bigger role in the offense if Odell Beckham Jr. can’t get cleared from the Covid list ahead of the game, but he’ll still be a distant 4^th in the target pecking order behind Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee. We’ve seen Skowronek play more than 70% of the offensive snaps once this season, and the result was 1 catch for 8 yards on 5 targets against the 49ers. Seattle allows the 7^th-fewest WR points per game. With your season at stake, you can find a better upside option than Skowronek.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 15: vs. KC): Palmer posted a very nice fantasy day last weekend in Keenan Allen’s absence, but don’t count on a repeat performance with Allen back this week. He’ll go back to his usual role on Thursday night, and in that usual role Palmer hasn’t totaled more than 25 yards in a game. Even in a matchup where the Chargers could be throwing a lot, I wouldn’t trust Palmer.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Marshall was on the field quite a bit in week 14. In fact, his 47% snap share on Sunday was the most he’s played since week 5, but it translated to zero targets in a game where the Panthers threw the ball 35 times. Unless DJ Moore ends up sidelined with his hamstring injury, there’s no reason to consider Marshall even in deep leagues this week. Even if Moore sits, the Bills allow the fewest wide receiver points per game.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): In case you missed the news, Waddle was yet another player added to the Covid reserve list this week, making him unlikely to suit up in a great matchup with the Jets. Albert Wilson is the most likely candidate to fill Waddle’s spot in the lineup, but DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki and the running backs are the places to turn for fantasy options.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Toney’s best game of the season came against the Cowboys in Dallas, with Mike Glennon playing at QB for most of the game. The rookie likely won’t get a chance at a repeat performance. He’s been out with injury the last few weeks and was added to the Covid reserve list this week. His return to the field is very unlikely in week 15.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Fitzpatrick was inactive last week and was added to the Covid reserve list this week. He’s unlikely to play Sunday and even less likely to produce a fantasy-relevant day.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Tremble hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in a game since week 8, and the Bills have allowed 1 tight end touchdown since week 6. There’s no reason to roll the dice on Tremble.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Urban Meyer is finally out as Jacksonville’s head coach, and for at least this week it should be a big boost for the team. Lawrence has been an abysmal fantasy option in recent weeks, totaling just 1 touchdown in his last 6 games, but this is the week where I expect him to buck that trend. Since 2010, interim head coaches have a record of 14-9 in their first game, and the teams they were stepping in for were a combined 60-164-2 at the time the previous head coach was fired. That’s a winning percentage that’s 34% higher in the first game under an interim coach. This points to the Jaguars being very likely to beat the Texans, and if they win, I like Lawrence’s chances of finishing as a mid-range QB2. Admittedly, this is more of a hunch than a well-reasoned decision. The Texans have actually been decent against QBs and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’re far from an unbeatable defense.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 15: @LAR): Eskridge has seen his playing time increase each week since returning from IR, and in week 14 he finally out-snapped Freddie Swain for the first time this season. Tyler Lockett was placed on the Covid reserve list this week, and the Rams have FIVE defensive backs currently on the Covid list as well, including both starting cornerbacks and their starting strong safety. I’d look for the Rams to use the blitz to try and cover for their lack of DB depth, and Eskridge could be a popular outlet option with speed to burn after the catch. If you’re desperate in a deep redraft league, Eskridge is probably available on the waiver wire. The floor is non-existent, but 15+ points is not impossible for Eskridge if Lockett misses this game.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 15: @Phi.): I wouldn’t consider Brown in any fantasy playoff matchups this week, but Terry McLaurin was concussed last weekend and Curtis Samuel is ailing again as well. There’s a clear path to a lot of playing time for Brown if both McLaurin & Samuel are inactive, and Brown costs just $200 for the DraftKings showdown slate. We’ve seen this story play out before. Brown didn’t do much with extended playing time early in the season, and the Eagles have allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but it’s still hard to ignore a guy with a potential full-time role that costs the minimum in a limited slate contest.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 15: @Jax.): Since their week 7 bye, the Jaguars have allowed just one tight end touchdown (to George Kittle) and haven’t allowed a single tight end to reach 50 receiving yards against them, but Jordan’s recent spike in usage is impossible to ignore. He was only running a route on about 40% of the Texans’ dropbacks each of the last two weeks, but he was targeted on more than a quarter of his routes. He’s now seen the ball come his way 11 times in the last two weeks, and I think that increased opportunity for him is here to stay with Davis Mills now installed as the starting QB. He’ll need to get in the end zone to be a worthwhile play this week, even as a cheap DFS option, but he’s found the end zone 3 times in the last 6 games and should be a safe bet for 4+ targets on Sunday.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 15: @Phi.): Bates has been mostly an afterthought in this passing game, seeing 4+ targets just once all season, but he played a bigger role than I expected last week with Ricky Seals-Jones back from IR and gets the best possible tight end matchup in week 15. Bates was in a route on 63% of Washington’s dropbacks last Sunday compared to 40% for RSJ, even if Seals-Jones did out-target him 4 to 2. The Eagles allow the most tight end points per game and have allowed a tight end TD in 9 of their last 11 games. I do expect Seals-Jones’ playing time to increase going forward, but RSJ costs $5,400 for the showdown slate for this game on DraftKings while Bates’ costs just $1,000, and backup tight ends have scored against Philly with regularity. I wouldn’t fire up Bates in any fantasy playoff matchups this weekend, but he has DFS upside.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you advance in the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.