Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the final week of the fantasy regular season for most leagues. This weekend will be your last chance to improve your positioning as we head into the playoffs. Make sure you know your league’s playoff rules – how many teams get in, how those spots are decided, and what tiebreaker rules are – and make sure you know what you need to do to make the playoffs. It’s good to know if you need huge points this week, or just a win. Don’t get too caught up on other matchups that you need to go one way or another to help you into the playoffs. Focus on only what you can control, your team.
Week 13 saw more struggles for a few of the top rookie pass catchers (Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts and DeVonta Smith), but it was nice to see Najee Harris bounce back to a respectable score and Jaylen Waddle and Elijah Mitchell to each post another productive week. Elijah Moore, Kenneth Gainwell and Amon-Ra St. Brown all found the end zone in impressive performances as well. Zach Wilson stunned us by accounting for 3 TDs in a loss, while Mac Jones only threw 3 passes in a win. It was all in a week’s work for the 2021 rookie crop, and they’ll have plenty more in store for us in week 14.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 14…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 14: @Min.): Harris was a letdown in week 12, and while he didn’t bounce back with a ceiling game last Sunday, he still posted 15+ PPR points for the 10th time in his last 11 games. This week he faces a Vikings’ defense that allows the 12th-most running back points per game and ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. He should be a safe RB1 as usual.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Chase got back above 50 yards last week for the first time since week 7, but it was hardly a banner day for him. He’s now averaging just under 11 PPR points per game in his last 5 contests, but he’s also averaged 7.8 targets per game in that span. The points are going to come back, and I think this week is a good opportunity for that to start happening. The 49ers allow more points per game to wide receivers than 4 of the last 5 teams the Bengals have faced, and they’ll be missing starting CB Emmanuel Moseley. Keep firing him up.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): I know Williams feels like he should fall into the auto-start category above after he steamrolled his way to 178 scrimmage yards and a TD last Sunday night, especially heading into a cake matchup with the Lions. I just want to jump in to say pump the brakes just a little bit. Melvin Gordon appears set return this week, and as much as we want Denver to just give the reins of this backfield to Javonte, head coach Vic Fangio was clear after Sunday’s game that they’re going to continue to use both backs when Gordon is healthy. The good news for Javonte is that he was seeing close to 60% of the snaps in the last 2 games Gordon was active, and I’d expect him to be in that range again in this one. Detroit has allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game, and Denver is an 8.5-point favorite, so even 60% of the workload in this matchup puts Williams in a great position to deliver a strong RB2 day. If Gordon somehow is inactive again, Javonte will be in line for another monster day, and would likely be a top-5 play for the week.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Keep a close watch on the injury report with Mitchell. He’s still not practicing as of Thursday due to a concussion and knee irritation. If he manages to get cleared though, he should probably be in your lineup. Mitchell has topped 15 fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games and faces a Cincinnati defense that shouldn’t scare you away. The Bengals have allowed the 13th-most RB points per game this season. If Mitchell is active this week, he’s a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1 option.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): With Christian McCaffrey back on the shelf, Hubbard should step back in as the starting RB this week against Atlanta. We’ve already seen how this offense looks with Hubbard as the lead back. In his 5 starts the Panthers have fed him the ball. Hubbard averaged 17.8 carries and 3.6 targets per start, and in a game against these Falcons, and he finished with 91 scrimmage yards and a TD. The Falcons have allowed the 7th-most RB points per game and rank 21st in run defense DVOA, and the Panthers are favored by 2.5 points, so they game script should allow them to stick with the running game. It’s worth noting that Sam Darnold was the starter for all 5 of Hubbard’s prior starts, and things will be a little different with Cam under center. I still expect the game plan to be run-heavy, but Cam is more likely to vulture goal-line rushing attempts than Darnold. Cam already has 3 rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line in just 3 games on the team. I’d still treat Hubbard as a low-end RB2 this week, but be aware of the Cam vulture possibility if you’re trying to break a tie between Hubbard and another back.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 14: vs. NO): We finally got what we’ve been waiting for and saw a big-time game out of Moore with Zach Wilson at QB. It took 12 targets for Moore to post a 6-77-1 line, but that kind of volume should keep coming with Corey Davis done for the season. Moore faces a daunting matchup with New Orleans. The Saints give up the 4th-most WR points per game, but Moore should see shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, who has made life tough on top WRs like Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, and Davante Adams this season. Moore’s volume should be enough to get him through to another WR3 day in spite of this tough individual matchup.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 14: @Min.): Freiermuth has finished as a top-12 TE in 5 of his last 7 games and was 1.2 points away from making it 6 of 7 last weekend. He did post his lowest reception total of any of those 7 games last week, but he makes his fantasy living by getting into the end zone, and the Vikings have allowed 3 tight end scores in the last 3 weeks despite allowing the 8th-fewest TE points per game. Freiermuth isn’t a slam dunk start this week, but I’d prefer him over most of the available streaming options that’ll be sitting out there on the wire.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 14: @Den.): St. Brown posted his best game as a pro last Sunday, hauling in 10 passes for 86 yards and the game-winning TD that ended the Lions’ long winless streak. He’s clearly a bigger part of the passing game with D’Andre Swift sidelined, and Swift seems likely to miss another game this week. That puts ARSB back on the fantasy radar in PPR formats. He’s got a tougher matchup this week, though. Denver has allowed the 9th-fewest WR points per game, and Amon-Ra’s individual matchup with Kyle Fuller in the slot could be a tall task. Fuller has played well since moving back to the slot when Ronald Darby returned from injury in week 6. He was picked on a bit by Keenan Allen in week 12, but aside from that game, he’s allowed just 2 completions and 13 yards on 10 targets into his coverage since week 6. ARSB may still have success this week, but I think 4-5 catches for 40-50 yards is much more likely than a repeat of what he did last weekend.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Bateman’s playing time has slowly evaporated since the return of Sammy Watkins, and in week 13 he played behind both Watkins and Devin Duvernay. The Browns allow the 10th-fewest WR points per game, and it’s hard to envision Rashod posting a useful fantasy day while running a route on fewer than 40% of the Ravens’ pass plays.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 14: @Car.): It’s come to this. I’m advocating for sitting Kyle Pitts in a week where your matchup could be pivotal to making the fantasy playoffs. I’m not saying you should just sit him for anyone, but if you have another reasonable option or can grab a high-end streaming option this week like Tyler Conklin or Jared Cook, I’d think long and hard about it. We’ve already seen how the Panthers will attack Pitts from their first meeting. They’re going to cover him with Stephon Gilmore any time he lines up outside. Gilmore made life miserable for him in the first meeting, as Pitts was limited to just 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 targets. If you’re chasing points in the standings and need more than just a win to make the playoffs, Pitts likely offers a higher ceiling than other comparable options, but the floor here is lower than usual.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 14: @Ten.): Lawrence did post one of his best fantasy days of the season against this Titans’ team, and they’ve allowed the 3rd-most QB points per game, but they’re not that same defense. The Titans have allowed 20.8 QB fantasy points per game this season. Mac Jones is the only QB to score more than that against them since Josh Allen in week 6, and Jones topped it by less than a point. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense have gone in the opposite direction since that game. Lawrence has accounted for just 3 total TDs in 7 games since the first meeting with the Titans, and he’s topped 200 passing yards in just 3 of them (only one above 240). A turnaround could happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it with your season on the line.
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 14: vs. NO): For 3 glorious drives on Sunday, Zach Wilson flashed the tools that made him the 2nd overall pick in the NFL draft, accounting for 2 passing scores and another on the ground on the Jets’ first 3 drives of the game. He then turned back into the Zach Wilson we’ve seen the rest of the season, the one who accounted for just 5 total TDs in his first 7 starts. After those first 3 drives Sunday, Wilson went 12-for-25 for 123 yards, zero scores, and 1 INT the rest of the game. The Saints’ defense has given up some ceiling QB weeks this season, but I don’t see how you can rely on Wilson to put one up this week. Wilson has scored a dozen or more fantasy points just 3 times in 8 starts this season, and 12 is significantly lower than the point total you should be hoping for from a QB2.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Mills has shown flashes of competence in his limited opportunities this season, tallying over 20 fantasy points in two starts against good defenses (Patriots and Rams), but in his other 4 starts the Texans’ offense has mustered a total of just 15 points and only 1 touchdown. They failed to score a point on any of his 4 drives at the helm last Sunday as well. Seattle’s pass defense ranks just 26th in pass defense DVOA, but they also allow the 8th-fewest QB points per game and have only allowed multiple TDs to the opposing QB twice in their last 8 games. Mills is a bottom of the barrel QB2 option this week. He could surprise as he’s done a couple other times this season, but the floor is nonexistent.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 14: @GB): I liked Herbert as a sleeper this week before the Thursday news update that David Montgomery has returned to practice. Herbert put up 112 scrimmage yards and a TD in the Bears’ first meeting with Green Bay and would’ve been a solid play if Montgomery was out this week. Instead, he’ll be lucky if he handles 5+ touches.
RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 14: @Den.): D’Andre Swift faces long odds to suit up this weekend, but that we saw last weekend that still leaves Jefferson 3rd in line for RB snaps and touches in this offense. Jamaal Williams and Godwin Igwebuike split the bulk of the backfield work with Swift out in Detroit’s first win of the season. Jefferson played just 8 snaps. He’ll still likely see a handful of carries against a Denver defense that ranks 25th in run defense DVOA if Swift is out, but that isn’t enough to warrant fantasy consideration.
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): With JD McKissic out last weekend, Patterson still played just 4 offensive snaps and handled 1 carry against the Raiders. There’s no reason to count on a lot of usage this weekend.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Felton was limited to just 1 offensive snap in week 12 with Kareem Hunt back. He isn’t going to see the field for more than a couple plays when Hunt and Chubb are both active.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Evans hasn’t handled more than 1 target in a game since week 6, and he’s only logged rushing attempts in 2 of the 8 games where he’s played offensive snaps.
RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): It sounds like Dalvin Cook is going to give it a go on Thursday night barring a setback during pregame warmups, and Nwangwu played just 9 snaps and handled 6 touches with Cook out last Sunday. He’s only worth consideration this week if your league starts a return man.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. LAR): The return of DeAndre Hopkins last week means even less opportunity for Moore, who has topped 30 scrimmage yards just once in the last 7 games. The Rams do allow a lot of yards after the catch (7th-most in the league), but that really doesn’t matter if Rondale’s only going to get a couple targets.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Collins hasn’t reached 30 receiving yards since week 8, and the Seahawks allow the 7th-fewest WR points per game.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Eskridge has seen his snap share increase in each of the last 3 weeks, and he posted his best game of the season last Sunday with 3 catches for 35 yards and a score, but he’s not on the field enough to be anything more than a TD dart throw right now. There isn’t much of a ceiling playing a part-time role in a run first offense, especially in a week where they’re favored by more than a touchdown.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 14: @LAC): Toney still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and he hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards since week 5. Even if he ends up playing, you don’t need me to tell you it’d be wise to sit him with possibly Jake Fromm at QB against the defense allowing the 3rd-fewest WR points per game.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Schwartz still isn’t practicing as of Thursday after missing the last 2 games with a concussion. If he ends up active, his $200 price tag in DK showdown contests would be tempting. He’s played around half of the offensive snaps in all 3 games he’s been healthy for that OBJ didn’t play in and been used as a situational deep threat in them. The Ravens have allowed the most completions of 20+ yards, and the most completions of 40+ yards in the league. It’s still a long shot that the Browns would install those kind of deep shots to Schwartz into the week’s game plan when he hasn’t practiced in nearly 3 weeks.
WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Jax.): Fitzpatrick played behind Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Jacob Hollister, and Chester Rodgers ahead of last week’s bye, and the Titans should have Julio Jones back this week. Dez isn’t a fantasy option.
WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Marshall was a healthy scratch ahead of last week’s bye, and the Panthers’ firing of Joe Brady probably isn’t a good thing for him. Brady served as OC at LSU during Marshall’s time there and was likely one of his biggest advocates on the coaching staff. Shi Smith stepped in and played 15 snaps in that week 12 game that Marshall sat out, but he wasn’t targeted. Both are off the fantasy radar.
WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Milne has been a healthy scratch each of the last two weeks, and Brown has played fewer than 10 snaps in each of the last 4 games.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Don’t be tempted into thinking this is a good spot for Tremble against a defense allowing the 12th-most TE points per game. About 30% of the fantasy points and 57% of the TDs the Falcons have allowed to tight ends were given up to Rob Gronkowski in their two meetings with the Bucs. Only two other tight ends have made it to 7 points against them all year (Gesicki and Goedert).
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Jordan is nothing more than a TD dart throw this week, and as mentioned under Davis Mills, Houston likely won’t score more than one touchdown. He’s seen an increased snap share in the last couple of weeks, but he’s still hasn’t been targeted more than 4 times in any game. 4 targets aren’t very useful when you average fewer than 8 yards a catch.
TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Starting TE Logan Thomas suffered what will be a season-ending knee injury in week 13, but it doesn’t open the door for Bates as Ricky Seals-Jones is set to return from IR this week. Bates is only worth consideration if he’s the only available tight end for the Football Team.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 14: @GB): On paper, the Packers are not an easy QB matchup. They allow the 9th-fewest QB points per game and rank 10th in pass defense DVOA, but they’re vulnerable to running QBs. Green Bay has allowed the 5th-most QB rushing yards per game. They’ve given up totals of 37 yards to Jameis Winston, 46 to Jared Goff, 95 to Taylor Heinicke, and 43 to Fields in the first meeting with Chicago. The Bears offense should get a big boost from the return of Allen Robinson as well, even if his main function in this game is to keep Jaire Alexander occupied. Alexander is expected back from IR as well. You’re barking up the wrong tree if you plan to use Fields in a 1-QB league, but with 4 guys who are typically top-20 QB options on byes (Tua, Wentz, Hurts and Mac Jones), I’m very comfortable taking a swing on Fields’ upside if I’m looking for a QB2 this week.
RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The Chargers’ RB2 role behind Austin Ekeler has been a weekly revolving door, but in week 14 the person who ends up in that role could have some relevance. The Chargers enter the week as a 10-point favorite against the Giants, who will be without their starting QB Daniel Jones, and possibly without backup Mike Glennon. It was reported Thursday that Glennon was “moving in the right direction” to be able to play Sunday, but he still needs to clear the concussion protocol. Whether it’s Glennon or 3rd-stringer Jake Fromm at QB, this should be a convincing win for the Chargers, and that means late garbage time carries against a defense that ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 8th-most RB points per game. Rountree, Joshua Kelley, and Justin Jackson have each taken a turn in the role in the last 3 weeks, playing about a quarter of the offensive snaps in that turn, and being a non-factor in the other two games. Whichever of that trio holds the role on Sunday will be a value in showdown DFS contests for this game, especially since Austin Ekeler is battling an ankle injury. Rountree and Kelley each cost just $200 on DraftKings for those contests. Jackson costs $2,800. Keep a close eye on team reports this week to see who is active, but if Rountree manages to get into the RB2 role, a double-digit scoring day isn’t impossible.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Mike Williams is officially ruled out for Sunday on the Covid reserve list, and Keenan Allen could potentially miss this week as well if he can’t get cleared in time. That bodes well for Palmer facing a defense that allows the 10th-most WR points per game. Palmer and Jalen Guyton will be working as the WR1 and 2 in practice all week as the gameplan is installed, and both will be on the field a lot. To this point of the season, Guyton has typically been on the field twice as often as Palmer, but their target totals are close. In the last 8 games, Guyton has 22 targets to Palmer’s 18. Guyton costs $7,000 on DraftKings for the showdown slate for this game. Palmer costs $200. Both are likely in play as WR4 types this week even if Allen plays and slide up to WR3 options if Allen can’t get cleared in time.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you find your way into the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
