Welcome back to the Rookie Report and Happy Turkey Day! Hopefully your teams are well positioned for the final playoff push with just 3 weeks remaining before the fantasy playoffs. Week 11 felt like a return to fantasy normalcy after a tumultuous and unpredictable few weeks before it. We still saw a couple big upsets (Texans over the Titans, Colts over the Bills), but for the most part the good fantasy players performed well in week 11, and the rookies were no exception. Ja’Marr Chase and Najee Harris each got back into the end zone after failing to do so in their previous games. DeVonta Smith topped 60 yards for the 3^rd straight game, Elijah Moore topped 10 PPR points for the 5^th straight, and the trio of Kadarius Toney, Jaylen Waddle, and Rondale Moore each had a reception bonanza despite minimal yardage. The rookies should have plenty more in store for us in week 12.

I’m going to try something a little different with the Rookie Report this week. Every week I try to touch on every fantasy relevant rookie, but realistically you don’t need several sentences to tell you not to start Larry Rountree III in your lineups. With that in mind, I’m going to have two brief sections on rookies you already know to start, and rookies you already know to sit, with just a brief stat about each. I’m going to split the ‘Borderline Rookies’ section into guys that I’d lean toward starting, and guys that I’d lean toward sitting, and will finish as always with the ‘Deep League Sleepers.’ Hopefully you find this format a little more useful going forward.

The same usual notes still apply – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all mentions of points per game and points allowed are in half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 12…

Rookies you Already Know you Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Harris’ lightest workload since week 2 still resulted in 17 touches and an RB12 finish last weekend. The Bengals have allowed the 9^th-most points per game to opposing backs.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Chase earned his second-lowest target total of the season in the first go-round with the Steelers but finished that game with a 20-point fantasy day. Chase’s overall production has been a little lower in his last 3 games, but he’s still cleared 10 fantasy points in all but one game this season.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): Since Tua’s return from injury in week 6, Waddle has garnered 8+ targets in 5 of 6 games, 7+ receptions in 4 of 6, and 60+ yards in 5 of 6. He’s been the PPR WR17 in points per game in that span. The Panthers have allowed the 4^th-fewest WR points per game this season, so I could see being hesitant to get him in the lineup in non-PPR formats, but don’t let the Panthers scare you off in full PPR (and probably not in half-PPR either).

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Please note that I only suggest starting Jones in superflex formats or leagues deeper than 12 teams, but this is a week where he has more upside than usual. The Colts and Texans are the only teams all year to fall short of 270 passing yards against the Titans this season, and this game should have the least favorable game script the Patriots have faced in the last few weeks after 3 straight easy wins. Jones has averaged just 22 pass attempts per game in the last 3 weeks after throwing 30+ times in 7 of his first 8 games. I expect Jones to get back to 30+ attempts in this game, and assuming he’s his usual, efficient self with those attempts, he’s going to likely finish as a high-end QB2.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): Ahead of Denver’s week 11 bye, Javonte played more snaps in a game than teammate Melvin Gordon for just the 2^nd time all season. While I doubt it’s a true changing of the guard, it would be wise for Denver to give Williams more playing time down the stretch as they take their last swings at staying in the playoff chase. Williams has consistently looked like the better back. Week 12 brings one of the best matchups of the season for this backfield. The Chargers have allowed the 4^th-most running back points per game, and rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Even with a split workload, this is a great opportunity for Javonte to post a top-20 performance. If his edge in playing time over Gordon continues, he could push even higher. You may have more trustworthy options than Williams on your roster, but this is a week where Javonte should have one of his best performances of the season.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 12: @NYG): Smith has continued to produce at a high level over the last 3 weeks even though the Eagles have transitioned to being a run-heavy football team, but his margin for error is smaller in the current version of the offense. Jalen Hurts has attempted just 21 passes per game in the last 3 weeks, but each week 6 of those attempts have gone in Smith’s direction, and he’s been efficient with those targets. Smith has scored 3 TDs in that span and posted 3 of his 4 best single-game yards per target marks of the season. Can he continue to turn limited volume into fantasy gold this week? I wouldn’t consider it automatic, but the matchup isn’t one to be afraid of. The Giants have allowed the 12^th-most WR points per game, and shadow corner James Bradberry hasn’t been the same player in 2021 that he was in 2020. Bradberry is allowing the highest marks he’s allowed on throws into his coverage in passer rating, yards per target, and yards per completion since his rookie year in 2018, and he’s seen his PFF coverage grade drop from 79.9 in 2020 to 64.8 in 2021. He still isn’t a complete pushover, so I wouldn’t pencil in a 5-60-1 line for the rookie just yet, but there aren’t many receivers you’d be considering around Smith’s range that have the kind of ceiling he does.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): The return of Lamar Jackson should mean good things for Bateman. The rookie had averaged 70 receiving yards on nearly 5 catches per game in the last 3 games he played with Lamar before putting up a dud with Tyler Huntley under center in week 11. The Browns have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game and have allowed 10+ fantasy points to 10 different receivers in the last 6 games. If Marquise Brown is out again, Bateman will likely tangle mostly with Browns’ top corner Denzel Ward, but I’d expect the bump in volume that would come along with Brown’s absence to offset the tougher individual matchup. Bateman is a reasonable WR3 option in all formats.

WR Kadarius Toney, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Toney finally looked to be fully healthy on Monday night against the Bucs, and the Giants made an aggressive effort to get him the football, targeting him on more than a third of his offensive snaps. All of those targets resulted in just 40 yards on 7 catches, but he gets a matchup favorable to his skill set this week. The Eagles play a lot of Cover 2 zone defense, which should leave a lot of holes for Toney to settle into underneath the deep safeties. Philly also allows the 14^th-most yards after catch, which means Toney could have some success piling up extra yards with the ball in his hands. If Toney is used the same way he was last week, I think a dozen or more fantasy points are in the offing for him. The biggest wild card here is what kind of offensive changes Freddie Kitchens will implement in his first week as interim OC. Kitchens’ one full season in charge of Cleveland’s play-calling included more than 8 targets per game for Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., so he knows to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Toney is the best playmaker the Giants have at wide receiver.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 12: @Jax.): It’s getting harder each week to trust Pitts in your lineups with each dud he posts, but I urge you to ride with the rookie for another week. It’s been more than 4 weeks since the last time Pitts scored more than 10 PPR points, but I’m confident he’s going to get there this week. The Jaguars have allowed just the 12^th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but that number is worse than it looks. They’ve only faced 4 tight ends all season that rank in the top-20 in PPR points per game, and all 4 of them scored at least 13 points against Jacksonville. I fully expect Pitts to make it 5 out of 5.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Freiermuth played his lowest snap share since week 5 on Sunday night, but he still saw 7 targets come his way and scored a touchdown again. He now has at least 6 targets and 4 catches in 5 straight games and has gotten into the end zone 4 times in that span. The player who was taking his snaps in week 11, Eric Ebron, is expected to need knee surgery and is out for the foreseeable future. That means the rookie should go back up to a 70%+ snap share going forward. Freiermuth’s week 12 opponents, the Bengals, have given up a tight end touchdown in each of the last 3 games, and Muth himself got in the end zone against them in week 3. Freiermuth looks like a low-end top-10 play this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): A matchup against the defense allowing the 3^rd-most QB points per game is enough to get any QB consideration in 2-QB leagues, but this Jacksonville offense hasn’t shown enough life to trust Lawrence even in this prime spot. The Jaguars as a team have scored just 36 total points in the last 3 weeks. Trevor has accounted for more than 1 touchdown in just one of his last 9 games and has accounted for zero total touchdowns in the last 3 games combined. His best hope for fantasy production may be his legs. The Falcons have allowed 5 different QBs to run for over 25 yards, and two of them to run for over 60. Lawrence has rushed for 20+ yards 6 times this year. At the end of the day, starting Lawrence as your QB2 means you’re betting on him to post his best game in over a month. An inviting matchup isn’t enough to get me to make that bet.

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): You might look at the opponent next to Wilson’s name and be tempted to consider him as a streamer in 2-QB leagues this week, but I’d caution against that. It’s true the Texans allowed 17+ QB points in 7 of their first 8 games and 20+ in 5 of them, but Wilson hasn’t shown that he can take advantage of a matchup like this yet and his floor is very low. Wilson failed to record a touchdown in 3 of the 5 full games he’s played, and you’re playing with fire if you’re counting on a big performance after a 5-week layoff. He’ll be shaking off the rust in this one, and while he may be able to lead his team to a win against the Texans, he’s less likely to lead your fantasy team to the same.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): If Mitchell can play this week, this isn’t a terrible spot to fire him up as a flex play, but it’s not a great one either. The 49ers offense has looked the best it’s looked all season in the last few weeks, and they face a Minnesota defense that ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 11^th-most running back points per game. On paper, it looks like a great spot to play a starting running back in a run-first offense. The question is whether Mitchell will see a full starting running back workload. Mitchell played his lowest snap share of the season week 10 in Jeff Wilson Jr.’s first game back from IR, and the 49ers have utilized Deebo Samuel out of the backfield frequently in the last two weeks. Add in that Mitchell is still nursing that finger injury, and it’s easy to see him playing a smaller role than usual. When you also consider that he isn’t used as a pass-catcher, the potential path to a dud performance in this smash spot gets clearer. You could do worse than Mitchell in your lineups, but there’s more risk here than you’d think. Keep on eye on the injury updates from the 49ers if you’re considering using Mitchell.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): I love what we’ve seen out of Stevenson in recent weeks, but he’s in a full-fledged committee with Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden right now, and the Titans have allowed the 4^th-fewest running back points per game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the rookie post another impressive game, but he’s likely going to be doing so from my bench unless I have limited options. Stevenson has handled at least a dozen touches and posted 70+ scrimmage yards in 3 straight games, but Damien Harris missed most of 2 of those games, and the other was a blowout win over the Falcons. I’m not counting on another 70-yard day on a dozen touches.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): It will certainly feel counterintuitive to sit Moore given the production he’s put up in recent weeks, but it might be the right play with Zach Wilson getting the start for the Jets. Moore has been targeted at least 6 times in each of the last 5 games. He found the end zone in 4 of them, and topped 60 receiving yards in the other, but Zach Wilson started only one of those games, and he was injured and replaced by Mike White in the first half of it. Moore has totaled just 98 scrimmage yards and 1 TD in the 5 games he’s played that Wilson started. That could turn around going forward. Wilson was drafted 2^nd overall for a reason, and Moore has clearly carved out a big role in this offense, but their shaky connection has me worried for week 12. Houston isn’t an imposing matchup. The Texans allow the 9^th-most WR points per game. Moore is very much in play as a WR3 again this week, but I wouldn’t be plugging him in over other strong options this week.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Bates isn’t a guy I would usually give much consideration to, but he played an eye-popping 99% of Washington’s offensive snaps in week 11. He turned all of that playing time into just 3 catches for 23 yards. Logan Thomas did have his practice window opened to return from IR, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be active in week 12. If Thomas sits, Bates is no more than a desperation plug-in this week.

Rookies you Already Know you Should Sit:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): Andy Dalton is getting the start on Turkey Day.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Sermon handled 10 carries and 1 target last Sunday while splitting the backfield with Jeff Wilson Jr. in Elijah Mitchell’s absence. The 49ers opened up a 21-3 lead before Sermon got his 2^nd touch of the game. His work was mostly in garbage time, and Mitchell is expected back this week.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): There is a little upside for Patterson this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and ranks 25^th in run defense DVOA, but this feels like a JD McKissic week where the Football Team may be chasing points in a get-right game for Seattle’s offense. Patterson has carried the ball 22 times in the last 3 games, but he’s played just 34 offensive snaps. If you think Washington wins this week, Patterson has more upside than I’m giving him credit for.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 12: @Den.): The Chargers have played musical chairs with their RB2 spot this season, but Rountree hasn’t rushed for more than 11 yards since week 4.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): In Cam Newton’s first start this season, Hubbard went from change-of-pace back to complete afterthought, playing just one offensive snap. I don’t know if CMC played a higher snap share because he’s a week healthier, or if it was because there were fewer total plays as they played a slower tempo with Cam under center (Panthers ran 51 offensive plays in week 11 after running 75 in week 10). Either way, Hubbard isn’t going to play much this week unless it’s a blowout win.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): Since the return of David Montgomery two weeks ago, Herbert has played just 17 offensive snaps and touched the ball 5 times.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): In the two games where Jefferson found the end zone, he played a total of just 14 snaps, and Jamaal Williams missed both games. He’s yet to play an offensive snap in a game that Jamaal Williams was active for.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Samaje Perine has stolen Evans’ pass-catching role behind Joe Mixon, and it was already a small role to begin with.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Felton has handled more than 3 touches in just one game, and both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were inactive for it. Both should be active this week.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): If you missed the news, Carter is out a couple weeks with injury.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): Over the last 5 games since his return from IR, Collins has seen the following target totals: 6, 5, 4, 3, and 2. He’s still been on the field for over 50% of the offensive snaps each week, but that’s not a trend you want to chase this week, even against a Jets’ defense that is vulnerable pretty much everywhere.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): Much as I expected, the change to Cam Newton didn’t turn things around for Marshall. WR Brandon Zylstra has played nearly double the snaps that Marshall has in the last 2 weeks, and Terrace has just 3 catch-less targets in those games.

WRs Dax Milne & Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): This duo has played fewer combined snaps than Adam Humphries has seen in each of the last two weeks.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Schwartz missed last week’s game with a concussion suffered against the Patriots in week 10 and looks likely to miss this week as well. He’s posted fewer scrimmage yards in the last 10 weeks combined than he did in week 1.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): I think there are some spike weeks coming for Tremble, but I’m not ready to bank on this being one of them. It took just 2 targets from Cam Newton for Tremble to post his best yardage day of the season last week, but 2 or 3 targets aren’t likely to get it done against a Miami defense that has only allowed Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Mo-Alie Cox to reach 10 fantasy points against them at tight end.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): Jordan is starting to get more regular playing time, but not enough that he’s a realistic lineup consideration. He’s totaled 6 catches for 57 yards and a score in the 3 games he’s been active for.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 12: @NYG): Gainwell has kind of been the forgotten man in Philly’s backfield in the last couple weeks. He was a healthy scratch in week 11, but he’s going to be active this week after an injury to Jordan Howard, and I like his chances to be a factor. Gainwell is the most skilled receiving back of the Eagles’ trio, and the Giants allow the 6^th-most running back receiving yards per game. Two of Gainwell’s 3 biggest fantasy days came against the defenses allowing the 5^th and 7^th-most RB receiving yards per game. He hasn’t faced any other teams in the top 8. Gainwell is obviously a risky play given how little he’s been involved in recent weeks, but he costs less than half what Boston Scott does on DraftKings for showdown contests, and I like his odds to outproduce his teammate in this one.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): I didn’t think it was possible to believe this, but Detroit’s pass catchers have to be relieved to see Jared Goff is slated to return this week after the performance from Tim Boyle last Sunday. ARSB pulled in all 4 of his targets for just 18 yards. That represented 23.3% of Boyle’s total passing yardage. This week St. Brown gets to face a Bears’ defense that allowed him to post 6 catches for 70 yards in their first meeting, and the Chicago secondary has gone downhill since then. ARSB’s most frequent matchup will be with Chicago slot corner Duke Shelley. Shelley has allowed 9 yards per target and a completion percentage of over 77% on throws into his coverage. I wouldn’t be eager to get any Lion WRs into my season-long lineups, but if you’re looking for a Detroit receiver to target in Thanksgiving DFS contests, Amon-Ra is my favorite option this week.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 12: @NE): Fitzpatrick has been quite the redemption story in recent weeks. He was a 4^th-round pick last spring but failed to make the Titans’ roster out of training camp, and instead was relegated to the practice squad. He’s worked his way back up to the active roster, and now finds himself in a prominent role in the offense as we head into week 12. Julio Jones and Marcus Johnson are both on injured reserve, and AJ Brown is battling a couple injuries suffered last Sunday. Fitzpatrick stepped in admirably, earning 6 targets and scoring his first career touchdown against the Texans. He’s likely to avoid New England’s top cover corner JC Jackson whether AJ Brown plays or not, and he could be in line for another 6+ targets. He’s an intriguing cheap DFS play and should be rostered in most dynasty formats.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 12: @Was.): This one is a pure hunch, and one that shouldn’t be tried in any high-stakes contests, but I really like Seattle’s chances to get the offense back on track this week against a Washington defense that ranks 31^st in defense DVOA, ahead of only the Jets. Of course, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Alex Collins are the most likely beneficiaries if that happens, but this feels like the right week to dial up a couple shot plays for Eskridge on a big stage Monday night. He’ll likely cost close to the minimum for Monday Night showdown slate contests.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Be aware of which of your players have a game on Thursday, and make sure you don’t miss out on getting them into your lineup because you were in a turkey coma. Also keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.