Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The first two weeks of the NFL season have been anything but predictable, but hopefully you were able to navigate the craziness and get a win or two in the process. Some of this year’s rookies had wild swings from week 1 to week 2. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson both put up strong performances in their debuts and crashed back to earth in week 2. DeVonta Smith followed up a PPR WR19 finish in week 1 by finishing as the WR81 in week 2. Najee Harris had a big bounce back performance in week 2 as he finished as the RB8 and Rondale Moore built on his solid debut with a monster game as well. We also saw more modest bounce backs from Javonte Williams, Elijah Moore, Kyle Pitts and Dyami Brown. What does this all mean for week 3? That’s what we’re here to discuss.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 3…
Rookies to Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Najee had the bounce-back game we hoped for in week 2, finishing the week as the PPR RB7 with 19.1 points. He continued to dominate the backfield playing time, seeing the field on 95% of the offensive snaps. That usage isn’t going anywhere. The Bengals are actually a tough RB matchup. They’ve allowed just 65 running back rushing yards per game and rank 2nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but they’ve also allowed 8 running back receptions per game. Harris hauled in 5 passes last week and should be in line for a nice receiving workload again with Diontae Johnson potentially sidelined. He’s a locked-in RB1 this week in PPR formats, and a solid RB2 in half- and non-PPR.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 3: @NYG): Pitts saw his share of the targets and air yards come down in week 2 against the Bucs but saw his fantasy production go up as he finished with 5 catches for 73 yards on 6 targets. These are the kinds of performances that can help Pitts cash in on the draft capital you spent on him, but he’ll need to find the end zone along the way as well. This week’s matchup with the Giants is a favorable one. New York has allowed the 4th-most TE points per game so far, but they’ve had a weird trend in their first two contests. In both games, the starting tight end hauled in at least 5 receptions and 45 yards, but in each game, it was the backup TE that found the end zone. If that trend holds, Hayden Hurst may be a nice play in limited slate DFS lineups. I’d still look for Pitts to be in the 6-7 target range, and likely finish as a top-10 TE on the week again. He should be started if you have him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 3: @Cle.): An injury to Andy Dalton opens the door for Fields to make his first NFL start this Sunday, and he gets what should be a favorable matchup against the Browns. The Browns allowed the 7th-most QB points per game in 2020 and have picked up where they left off this season. It’s excusable to have issues slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills and the Texans, however? That’s another story. The Texans’ QBs combined for 23 and a half fantasy points last weekend, which would’ve been good enough for the QB9 for the week if they were one player. Fields flashed some of his playmaking abilities against the Bengals but failed to find the end zone. I’d expect that to change. It was promising to see the Bears call 3 designed runs for Fields. He also took off on 4 scrambles and finished with 31 rushing yards after 3 kneel downs to end the game. That rushing upside is a big part of why he’s a strong option this week. The Browns allowed the 4th-most QB rushing yards per game a season ago and have given up a QB rushing score each week this season. Fields has the weapons and matchup to post a strong starting debut. I wouldn’t start him over any of the proven stud QBs, but he’s in play as a high-risk/high-reward fringe QB1 in 12-team leagues.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Ari.): Lawrence has proven to be a volatile option in the first two weeks of the season, but he’s been aggressive to a fault. Only Derek Carr has thrown for more intended air yards through the first two weeks than Trevor. The Jaguars’ offensive line has done a nice job keeping him upright, allowing the 8th-lowest pressure rate in the league. The rookie just needs to be willing to take what the defense gives him more often instead of forcing it downfield. Jacksonville is a touchdown underdog this week, so there should be plenty of passing volume again, and that willingness to sling it downfield gives Lawrence big upside. Arizona ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA for the year but allowed Kirk Cousins to finish as the QB6 in week 2. There is plenty of risk here, but T-Law’s upside has him in play as a QB2 this week for me.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Williams has been one of my favorite candidates to break out for a couple weeks now, and so far, it hasn’t quite happened for him. I’m going to scale back the excitement this week after Melvin Gordon played a bigger share of the snaps than Williams last Sunday, but I still think this is a nice spot for Williams to have a strong game. Javonte ranks 2nd in the NFL at forced missed tackles per carry (behind only Nick Chubb), and even though he played fewer snaps than Gordon last week they each handled the same number of carries. The Jets rank just 26th in run defense DVOA through two weeks and the Broncos are favored by double-digits. There should be plenty of rushing volume for Denver. I expect Javonte to clear 70 scrimmage yards in this game, and he has a great chance to score his first career TD. If he gets in the end zone, he’ll likely finish as an RB2 or better.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 3: vs.GB): Mitchell suffered a shoulder injury late last weekend and is listed as questionable, but he’s likely to be the lead back again for the 49ers if he’s able to play. He seems to be much more likely to suit up than fellow rookie Trey Sermon, and it’ll be a messy backfield situation if neither is able to play. Mitchell had an inefficient day against the Eagles last week but should find the sledding easier against Green Bay. The Packers have been a lackluster run defense so far, ranking 25th in run defense DVOA. Mitchell’s lack of receiving upside puts a cap on expectations here, but he should be a solid RB3 option if he is in fact able to play this week. Keep an eye on the injury updates with this one.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 3: @Pit.): Chase found the end zone for the second game in a row last Sunday, but as expected his target volume dropped off as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins had easier individual matchups. Chase leads the team in routes run for the season, but there will be ebbs & flows in this WR group since Chase has two very capable teammates. Ja’Marr again gets the toughest individual matchup of the Bengals’ receivers this week against Cameron Sutton, but Sutton has been far from dominant. He’s allowed just 7 yards per target into his coverage, but also a 77% completion percentage and 121 passer rating on those throws. My bigger concern for Chase is if the Bengals’ o-line will give Burrow enough time for Chase’s deeper routes to develop. Chase has an average target depth of 17.9 yards for the season. The Steelers have the 3rd-highest QB pressure rate so far and the Bengals have allowed QB pressure at the 5th-highest rate. It only takes one or two deep balls to connect for Chase to have a boom week. I’d view him as an upside WR3 option this week but keep an eye on the status of Tee Higgins. Higgins didn’t practice on Thursday. Chase will have a much safer floor if Higgins winds up sidelined.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 3: @Dal.): Smith’s week 2 stat line was a painful one if he was in your lineups. The rookie tallied just 2 receptions for 16 yards to follow up on a splashy debut in week 1. Don’t get too discouraged. The passing game continued to run through Smith. 30% of the team passing targets and 46% of the intended air yards went in DeVonta’s direction on Sunday. It’s frustrating that those targets didn’t connect, but Smith is going to have a big weekly ceiling. In week 3 in Dallas, Smith will match up mostly with Cowboys’ top corner Trevon Diggs. Diggs has been excellent through 2 weeks, allowing just a 35.8 passer rating and 7.6 yards per target on throws into his coverage. It’s that matchup that prevents me from making Smith a full-blown start this week. I’d view him as more of a WR4 or flex play. The volume will be there again.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 3: @Jax.): Moore has been the hottest name on the waiver wire this week after scoring a long scramble drill TD against Minnesota. He’s been productive in each of his first two games, posting 4-68 in week 1, and 7-114-1 in week 2, but there may be a little bit of fool’s gold in those week 2 numbers. He’s still running as the WR4 in this offense. He played fewer snaps than any of Nuk Hopkins, AJ Green, and Christian Kirk. Moore’s increase in playing time came at the expense of tight end Demetrius Harris, but his targets came at the expense of the other receivers. That isn’t going to be the case every week. DeAndre Hopkins is going to get his volume. For Rondale to continue putting up big fantasy performances, he’s going to have to continue getting outsized target shares for his playing time. It’s possible he does that but be aware of the risk if you picked up Rondale. The Jaguars’ defense isn’t a good one. They rank 28th in pass defense DVOA, so there should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodness here, but I wouldn’t be plugging Moore in ahead of proven top-24 WRs just yet.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Jones is living up to expectations as an efficient but unexciting signal-caller so far in his rookie season. He’s completed an impressive 74% of his passes but averages just 6.8 yards per attempts and has put the ball in end zone just once. He gets his stiffest test yet this week, facing off with a New Orleans defense that has allowed the 4th-fewest QB points through the first two weeks. I expect him to continue to be efficient and conservative with the ball, and don’t expect him to finish any higher than a low-end QB2 once again.
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Den.): We saw what life without Mekhi Becton is going to look like for Wilson last weekend, and it isn’t pretty. He was under pressure often, and still held the ball too long looking for downfield throws rather than taking checkdowns. He was also more off target in week two with Pro-Football Reference crediting him with a 24.2% bad throw rate (he was at 13.9% in week 1) . Wilson was sacked 4 times and threw 4 interceptions against the Patriots, and he faces an arguably tougher secondary this week. Denver ranks 10th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 7th-fewest QB points per game. They also have a pair of fearsome pass rushers in Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. This is another week where Wilson should be on your bench.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Mills acquitted himself better than expected after being thrust into action against Cleveland last week, throwing his first career TD, but it was hardly an efficient performance. He completed just 44% of his passes and did turn the ball over once. The Browns have been a lackluster defense against QBs dating back to the beginning of last year, but Carolina’s defense has come out of the gates on fire. The Panthers rank 1st in the league in pass defense DVOA, and first in the league in pressure rate on the QB. The addition of Jaycee Horn has given them a strong enough secondary in coverage to allow them to be more aggressive up front, and it’s working. The Texans don’t boast a strong o-line aside from Laremy Tunsil. They’ve allowed the 12th-highest QB pressure rate in the league and Davis Mills doesn’t have the escapability that Tyrod Taylor does in the pocket. Mills will also be missing Nico Collins and Danny Amendola and has a short week to get ready. This all adds up to a rough Thursday night for the rookie QB.
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 3: vs. GB): Lance threw a touchdown pass in the opener against the Lions but didn’t play a single snap in week 2 against the Eagles. It’s clearly not a certainty that we see the Trey Lance packages every week. There are zero formats where it’s a good idea to start the rookie QB this week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 3: @Dal.): For the second straight week Gainwell played about one-third of the Eagles’ offensive snaps while Sanders handled the other two-thirds. The rookie has averaged about 10 touches per game through the first two weeks. That’s not quite enough to consider him a good starting option in most standard leagues, and just enough to consider him if you’re desperate in a deeper league. The Cowboys do look to be much improved on the defensive side of the ball so far this season. They’ve allowed the 9th-fewest running back points per game and don’t jump out as a matchup you should be targeting with Gainwell.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 3: vs. GB): Sermon is working his way back from a concussion this week, and he seems less likely to play at this point than teammate Elijah Mitchell. The matchup isn’t a bad one, but I expect Sermon to be the #2 back if he and Mitchell are both able to go. If only Sermon plays of the two, I’d view him as an RB3 option for the week. Keep an eye on the injury updates here as this could be an evolving situation between now and Sunday.
RB Larry Roundtree, LAC (Wk. 3: @KC): Roundtree took a backseat to Justin Jackson in week 2 for the complementary back role behind Austin Ekeler, playing just 10 snaps and handling 2 touches in a loss to the Cowboys. He isn’t going to be heavily involved against Kansas City either.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 3: vs. NO): While it would be a very Belichick-ian thing to do to have Stevenson go from a healthy scratch in week 2 to being involved in the gameplan in week 3, you can’t start Stevenson in any format even if he does get the chance to suit up. Even if he were expected to play a bunch, the Saints rank 3rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game in the first 2 weeks.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 3: @LV): Waddle’s season was off to a nice start in week 1, but the injury to QB Tua Tagovailoa puts a bit of a damper on his outlook for week 3. With Tua under center, Waddle saw a 22.6% target share and averaged 10.6 yards per target. After Jacoby Brissett entered last Sunday, those numbers dropped to a 15% target share, and 5.8 yards per target. He does get the most favorable individual matchup of the WRs this week, facing off with slot corner Nate Hobbs. Hobbs has allowed a completion on all 8 throws into his coverage so far this season, but I’d shy away from using Waddle in all but deeper PPR leagues. He already saw his snap share drop by 16% from week 1 to week 2, and the Dolphins expect Will Fuller back for this contest, which should drop Waddle’s playing time even further. There’s a chance Waddle gets peppered with short targets in a game where the Dolphins play from behind, but it’ll be hard to rack up a productive stat line that way.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Taylor Heinicke was very impressive against the Giants last week, but that same Giants’ defense let Teddy Bridgewater pick them apart in week 1. Don’t overreact to it. The Bills are a much more formidable challenge. Brown is playing a full-time role in this offense and was targeted 6 times last week, but the DB he should square off with most often this weekend is Levi Wallace. Wallace has allowed just 3.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage so far this season.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Den.): Moore turned in a much better final line in week 2 than he did in the opener, but the Jets’ overall passing game was a mess and things don’t get much easier this week against Denver. Denver leads the league in time of possession through two weeks with Teddy two gloves and their running backs consistently moving the chains, and they should have no trouble playing keep away from the Jets. That will limit New York’s total passing volume, and Moore squares off with veteran corner Kyle Fuller, who has allowed just a 44% completion percentage and 6.8 yards per target on 18 throws into his coverage so far. The Jets have an implied total of just 15.5 points in this game, and that means all their weapons are dodgy options for fantasy this week.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): In the first two weeks of the season, St. Brown has just 1 reception longer than 7 yards on 9 targets. He did see his target share go up a little bit in week 2, but not enough to make him a useful piece in fantasy lineups. Even with Tyrell Williams sidelined, ARSB remains behind Hockenson, Quintez Cephus, and the pair of running backs in the target pecking order. Add in that the limited targets he’s seeing are low-value targets, and there’s no reason to give him a chance in your lineups this week.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Schwartz’s big week 1 performance unfortunately didn’t carry over to week 2. He was on the field about the same amount, but the ball just didn’t come his way. The Browns did place Jarvis Landry on IR this week after an injury he suffered against the Texans, but they also expect to get Odell Beckham Jr. back on the field this week. Beckham likely fits into the role Schwartz has been playing. I’d expect Schwartz to be mostly relegated to the bench with Beckham back in the fold, while Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins fill out the WR group in 3-wide receiver sets.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 3: @KC): Palmer saw a slight uptick in playing time in week 2, going from a 17% snap share in the opener to 25% last weekend, but he’s still running well behind Jalen Guyton for the WR3 spot. He’s seen just 3 targets in an offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in pass attempts so far. Keep him sidelined until that playing time and usage come up.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 3: @Min.): Eskridge missed week 2 in the concussion protocol, and while he still has a chance to suit up this week, he isn’t practicing as of Wednesday. Russell Wilson has been cooking early on this season with a couple deep connections with Tyler Lockett and a connection with Freddie Swain on a 63-yard score in week 2 as well. Eskridge has that deep threat skill set and the Vikings have allowed 8 completions of 20+ yards through the first two weeks, but you can’t count on Eskridge getting back into the mix given his current injury status.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): The Giants get a juicy matchup with a bad Falcons’ defense this week. Evan Engram still isn’t certain to be back, and Kenny Golladay’s status is back in jeopardy after he popped up on the injury report Wednesday. You still shouldn’t be considering Toney after he saw zero targets on 19 week 2 snaps. If he does happen to have a breakout game, I’m willing to let it happen from my bench (or more preferably from the waiver wire).
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Den.): On paper the Jets seem to have an evenly split 3-headed backfield committee - all 3 of Ty Johnson, Michael Carter, and Tevin Coleman have handled between 14 and 18 touches. In reality the Jets have a two-man backfield, and Carter has been the best of the pair. Carter and Ty Johnson each handled 12+ touches and reached 50 scrimmage yards in week 2, but it was Carter on the field in the two-minute offense, and on the field for 40% of the long down & distance snaps after Johnson played the overwhelming majority of both in week 1. These are the areas where Carter’s receiving prowess can be best utilized. I’d be hesitant to fire any Jets’ running back up against the Broncos. Denver allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game so far, but Carter should be stashed in deeper leagues, especially if they’re PPR formats. I’d only consider starting him this week if you’re desperate in a deep PPR league.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): I’d be hesitant to get Felton into any lineups this Sunday, but he is worth a stash in deeper leagues with Jarvis Landry placed on IR. He has running back eligibility on pretty much all fantasy platforms but has a chance to see a decent number of snaps as a slot receiver while Landry is out. Felton played a lot of receiver during his time at UCLA and scored a highlight-reel touchdown in his first real NFL action last weekend. He could see more opportunity going forward. If you’re in dire straits at running back in a deep PPR league, Felton could be a worthwhile pickup on the chance that he sees significant slot snaps. Rashard Higgins may be that guy as well, but Felton is worth the pick-up to see how it shakes out this week. You don’t want to be the guy spending significant FAAB money on him next week if he does post a nice game when you could’ve picked him up for nothing.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 3: @Hou.): Hubbard got some extended run late last week in a blowout win against the Saints, and he could be in line for a similar opportunity against the Davis Mills-led Texans in week 3. Don’t be discouraged by Hubbard’s inefficient 10 yards on 8 carries against the Saints. New Orleans is one of the stingiest run defenses in the league. They ranked 2nd in run defense DVOA in 2020 and are 3rd so far in 2021. The Texans, on the other hand, rank 31st so far this season. If you read what I wrote above about Davis Mills, you know I think this game can get out of hand. That means a lot of Hubbard late in the game. I think he’s a sneaky play in Thursday night showdown DFS contests. I wouldn’t use him in your captain spot, but his $3,600 price tag on DraftKings for those contests should play just fine, especially if he hits paydirt.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 3: @Hou.): If you’re playing in any showdown DFS contests for Thursday Night Football, you’re going to want to target players on the Panthers. Carolina is favored by more than a touchdown and has an implied total of more than 25 points as the Texans trot out Davis Mills at QB. DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey are going to get their volume, but of the remaining options behind them I like Marshall as the receiving option to have the biggest night. The Texans have been better than expected through the first two weeks, especially as a pass defense, but slot corner Desmond King has struggled in the first two weeks. He’s allowed a line of 7-70-1 on just 8 passes into his coverage and received a 52.5 coverage grade from PFF. Outside corners Vernon Hargreaves and Tremon Smith each graded out at 65 or higher through the first two weeks. I’d probably be hesitant to play Marshall in season-long leagues as this could be a run-heavy game for the Panthers and Marshall is the third receiving option at best. In DFS, however, a 50-yard game with a TD could be a big boost in showdown contests.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): It took just two weeks for the Penn State rookie to see more snaps than incumbent starter Eric Ebron for the Steelers. Freiermuth was on the field for 59% of the offensive snaps in week 2 and saw 4 targets come his way. With Diontae Johnson very questionable for week 3, there has been some speculation that James Washington is going to get some extra run, but Big Ben is also battling a pec injury. I’m not sure how well he’ll be able to throw the ball downfield. That could lead the Steelers to lean on shorter throws to players like JuJu, Najee Harris, Freiermuth, and Ebron. The Bengals have allowed the 5th-fewest TE points per game so far but have only faced Tyler Conklin and Cole Kmet. I like Freiermuth’s chances at 5+ targets in this game, and that makes him a sneaky option in deeper leagues and in DFS tournaments.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
