Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at fantasy championship week. If you’ve survived this far, congratulations! That’s an accomplishment in and of itself, but I’m sure you’re not satisfied with second place. For me, the key to championship lineups is to not get too cute. If you roll the dice on a sleeper this week and it blows up in your face in a close loss, are you going to be able to live with that for the whole offseason? If not, you probably shouldn’t roll those dice. That’s not to say that a sleeper can’t help you win a championship. Last year in week 16 it was guys like Daniel Jones, Tajae Sharpe, Steven Sims, DeAndre Washington and Kaden Smith who put up big scores (mostly from people’s benches). There certainly will be some similar performances this year…but the chances of picking them ahead of time is slim to none. Play the reliable starters over the dart throw guys unless you’re comfortable with the consequences. With that in mind, most of this week’s sleepers are guys I wouldn’t consider outside of DFS and the deepest of leagues. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookies for the all-important week 16…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
Rookies to Start:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Herbert has gotten himself back on track in the last couple weeks after a rough day against the Patriots, and this week he catches a Denver defense that is without most of the top of its CB depth chart. The Broncos have coughed up 280+ passing yards and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in each of the two games they’ve played with their corners sidelined, and I’d expect Herbert to extend that to three in a row. Herbert will be without Hunter Henry in this game, and possibly Keenan Allen who is a game-time decision. If Allen misses this one, I’d downgrade Herbert at least a little bit, but they still have enough other weapons that he should still be a really safe low-end QB1 this week against the Broncos’ depleted secondary.
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Hurts has exploded onto the scene in the last two weeks and made the Eagles look like a competent offense. While the fantasy production from his first start came mostly from his legs, he managed to add the passing element to that in game number 2. Hurts threw for 338 yards & 3 touchdowns, and ran for 63 yards and a score as well, showcasing his tantalizing ceiling. That ceiling should be in play again this week against the Cowboys. The passing yardage against Dallas has been limited due to teams being in positive game script. Only 3 teams in their last 11 games have thrown for 225+ yards against them, but 8 of 11 threw for multiple touchdowns. Dallas has also been shredded on the ground by the two true running QBs they’ve faced this season. They allowed 74 rushing yards to Kyler Murray and 94 to Lamar Jackson. Hurts should be in line for another day of strong rushing production and efficient passing, but know that there is always some risk when we only have a 2-game sample size to go off of. I’ve seen a lot of people debating between Herbert and Hurts this week for their championship. Herbert has the safer floor, but Hurts has the higher ceiling. Since both play in the late window on Sunday, I would suggest waiting until closer to kickoff to make that call. By then you should know if you need to swing for the fences with Hurts, or take the safer points with Herbert.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 16: @Pit.): Taylor has been on an absolute tear over the past 3 weeks with 4 total touchdowns and an average of just over 130 scrimmage yards per game, but he gets a rough matchup for championship week. The Steelers have allowed the 2nd-fewest running back points per game, but they’ve had a couple of their more dicey performances in the last few weeks, giving up 12.8 points to JD McKissic in week 13 and 22.2 to Gio Bernard last week. Taylor seems to have found his groove in recent weeks, and I would count on his more consistent usage and improved recent play to push him to a solid fantasy day once again even in this tough matchup. I would view him as more of an RB2 than RB1 this week, but he should be in your lineup unless you have some studs ahead of him.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Dobbins found the end zone for the 4th straight week last Sunday, and he should be in a great position to do it again during championship week. The Ravens have phased Mark Ingram completely out of the run game, and Dobbins has stepped in as the clear lead guy in the committee. He’s now carried the ball more than 10 times in 6 of his last 7 games, and this week faces a Giants’ defense that has allowed the 9th-most RB points per game. New York has given up at least 11 fantasy points to an opposing running back in all but two games this season. Dobbins should be a safe bet to finish in the top-20 backs this week.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 16: @NO): Jefferson gets what looks like a tough matchup on paper against the Saints, but it’s one he should be able to thrive against. The Saints rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 10th-fewest WR points per game, but they play man-to-man defense more often than most defenses and Jefferson has been exceptional against man-to-man. He’s averaging nearly 5 yards per route run against man-to-man defense, and no other player in the league averages even 4 yards. Add in that Jefferson has seen at least 8 targets in 5 of his last 6 games (average of 9.8 per game in that span), and he should be a safe WR1 or 2 this week in most formats despite a tougher matchup.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Don’t overthink it with Aiyuk. He’s gotten into the end zone in 5 of his last 7 games, and had at least 5 catches and 73 yards in each of the last 6. He should be a sure bet for 10+ targets again, even with the return of George Kittle and the switch to CJ Beathard at QB. Aiyuk and Beathard haven’t had the best connection thus far, with Aiyuk catching just 3 of 8 targets from CJ for 49 yards on the season, but with a full week of practice together I expect they’ll have things more ironed out this week. Arizona isn’t a defense to avoid, allowing the 14th-most WR points per game, so as long as the targets are there Aiyuk should be a safe WR2 for the finals.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Tua managed to post a strong fantasy game last week despite the absence of most of his weapons thanks to two rushing touchdowns. He may get some of those weapons back this week (Mike Gesicki & DeVante Parker are practicing in a limited capacity), but we know that the backfield is getting healthier and the Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA. Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida returned last week, running for over 200 yards against New England, and Myles Gaskin was activated from the COVID list this week. The Dolphins would be wise to ride their run game as far as it will take them this week. The pass defense is bad for the Raiders also, but I would expect limited passing volume. Tua should be a mid-QB2 this week unless they fall behind and he’s forced to throw a bunch.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Robinson has been as consistent a fantasy producer as there has been this season, but this week could be different. Many teams that are still alive and kicking owe their success to Robinson, but he’s battling an ankle injury that could keep him out this weekend against the Bears. Robinson typically is safe for double-digit points, but even if he plays this week I’d be surprised if the Jaguars give him his typical workload in a game that really doesn’t mean all that much for them. The Bears rank 5th in run defense DVOA, but have been effectively run on in recent weeks. Robinson would be a reasonable floor flex play if he does give it a go, but he won’t be nearly as safe a play as he usually is. Obviously keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Robinson, and have other options ready in case he doesn’t play.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Week 16 should be an interesting one for the Detroit Lions. Due to COVID exposure they’re going to be without their interim head coach, all of their coordinators, and a few position coaches as well. It remains to be seen what kind of impact that’s going to have on their game plan for this week, but if they know what they’re doing they’ll get the ball into Swift’s hands early and often. The Bucs have been one of the toughest matchups for running backs, allowing the 3rd-fewest points per game and ranking 1st in run defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the most running back receptions in the league and the 10th-most running back receiving yards. It’s unlikely that Swift will put up a crooked rushing total in this tough matchup, but receiving work can get him to a productive day in PPR and half PPR formats. Swift should be a solid flex play in the fantasy finals.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. Car.): Keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Gibson for this week. There is still no guarantee that he will play this week, but if he does suit up he should be in line for an RB2 day. The Panthers rank 22nd in run defense DVOA and allow the 8th-most running back points per game. Before going down with injury, Gibson had scored 8 touchdowns in his last 5 healthy games, and Washington should give him a healthy workload again. If it sounds like Gibson will be close to 100%, he should probably be in your lineup unless you have studs ahead of him.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): After being benched for an early fumble in week 13, the Bills haven’t been shy about going back to Moss in the games that followed. The 13 carries Moss handled in each game is just one off of his season-high, and last week he matched his best yardage day with 81 yards on the ground. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, allowed over 208 rushing yards to Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida last weekend, and 171 to Cam Akers the week before. The Bills’ best game plan would be to pound the ball on the ground. There is a solid chance that Moss approaches the yardage total he posted last week again, but you never know if the touchdowns will come with the yards. Josh Allen is as likely as any Buffalo running back to get the goal line carries. Moss is a flex play with some upside this week if he manages to find paydirt.
RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Ahmed came back from injury in a big way last week, shredding the Patriots to the tune of 122 yards and a TD. It could have been an even bigger day if he hadn’t had another TD overturned on replay review. That performance came with Myles Gaskin still sidelined on the COVID list, and Gaskin is set to return this week. That throws a bit of a wrench into Ahmed’s value for this week. The Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA and allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, so there is an opportunity for another big game if his role is similar, but I would expect Gaskin to take a big chunk of that workload, and Matt Breida (12 carries for 86 yards last week) won’t be completely phased out either. I’d expect Ahmed to be in the ballpark of a dozen touches in this one, and that will make him a decent flex play in this plus matchup.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 16: @Hou.): Higgins has had a hard time putting up fantasy production since Joe Burrow went down for the season, but if there was a week to be hopeful for a big day for him, this is the one. The Texans have played without Bradley Roby in 5 games this season, and have allowed 21+ fantasy points to one opposing receiver in each of those games. If any Bengal is going to approach that mark it’s Higgins. Ryan Finley earned another start this week with his performance against the Steelers last week, and he knew to feed the ball to Higgins. Finley threw just 13 passes in that game, but 6 of them were directed at Higgins. I’d expect Cincy to try to keep the passing volume low if they can again, but I also expect Higgins to post his best receiving day since Burrow got hurt. He’s an interesting WR3 this week.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Claypool’s fantasy performance has taken a hit with the Steelers falling apart as a whole over the past 3 weeks, but he did get back to 8 targets Monday night for the first time since week 12. Indianapolis has allowed the 11th-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve also allowed three 100-yard receiving games in the last 3 weeks. Claypool still has some boom-or-bust element to his fantasy outlook, but with Eric Ebron likely to be sidelined again Claypool should be a solid bet for another 8+ targets. He’s in play as a WR3 option if you need someone with some extra upside.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): By this point you pretty much know what to expect for Lamb without Dak Prescott around. Lamb has had 4+ receptions in 6 of his last 7 games, but yardage has been tough to come by. Last week was just the second time in that span that he’s topped 50 yards. The Eagles are a middle of the pack defense against receivers, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position, and they’ve allowed 5 double-digit fantasy days to wideouts in their past 3 games. Lamb should be safe for 7 or 8 points, but counting on much more has proven to be dangerous in the last couple months. He’s a flex option for deeper leagues where a safe floor may be better for your lineup than your other options.
WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Bowden has been just what the doctor ordered for a Dolphins team that has been beyond beat up at the skill positions over the last few weeks. He’s been the one constant in the lineup over the last 3 games, and as a result he’s totaled 17 catches for 174 yards on 20 targets in that span, and tallied 22 rushing yards to boot. That’s not league-winning production, but he’s been valuable for deeper PPR leagues. The Dolphins are getting healthier, but Bowden should remain involved against a defense that has struggled against slot receivers. Jamison Crowder, Keenan Allen and Scotty Miller each reached 19 points against Vegas from the slot since the Raiders’ bye week. Bowden should be good for in the ballpark of 5-60 this week in a good matchup, even if Gesicki and DeVante Parker return.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone has been playing coy about who will start at QB this week against the Bears, and it matters for Shenault. If the starter is Gardner Minshew again, Viska has some upside for the deepest leagues after being targeted 17 times in the last two games with Minshew under center. He was targeted just 7 times in the two weeks prior with Glennon. The Bears allow the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but have given up 7 double-digit fantasy days to opposing receivers in their last 5 games, and they’re missing corners Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine. Steer clear if Glennon starts, but if it’s the mustachioed one under center Shenault is a WR4/flex option in deep leagues this week.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 16: @Jax.): Kmet has taken over as the starting tight end in Chicago, playing every single offensive snap in week 15, but his fantasy production hasn’t been consistent since taking over the starting role. Kmet has totaled just 105 receiving yards in the last 5 games, all games in which he’s played 70% or more of the snaps. He does have a better than average chance to find the end zone this week. Jacksonville allows the 7th-most TE points per game and has let a tight end score a touchdown in 4 of their past 5 games. The tight end pool is pretty thin, so if you’re scrambling for a Hunter Henry replacement you could probably do worse than Kmet. Just know that the floor is pretty low here.
Rookies to Sit:
RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Perine should return this week, but after being off for a few weeks he might not jump right back into a full-time role. Frank Gore and Ty Johnson have played fairly well in his absence. The Jets should still get Perine a significant share of the work this week, but they’re a 9.5-point underdog and the Browns allow the 8th-fewest RB points per game. This isn’t a spot to view the rookie as a sneaky fantasy play.
RB Rodney Smith, CAR (Wk. 16: @Was.): Smith has seen an uptick in his usage in recent weeks, taking some of the passing down work from Mike Davis while we all wait to see if Christian McCaffrey ever comes back. Smith played 35% of the offensive snaps last week. CMC will be out again this week, so I’d expect Smith to be similarly involved against the Football Team, but this isn’t a great week to count on that sort of usage resulting in a productive fantasy day. Washington has allowed the 4th-fewest running back receptions and 3rd-fewest receiving yards. The upside isn’t all that high in this one.
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 16: @Det.): With Ronald Jones out, it was Leonard Fournette who handled the bulk of Tampa’s backfield work, handling nearly 70% of the offensive snaps. Vaughn and LeSean McCoy split the rest of the work. Jones will be out again this week, but I’d expect Fournette to get the bulk of the work again. There may be a bit more garbage time this week. Tampa was already favored by 9.5 points before it was announced that much of Detroit’s coaching staff would be out due to COVID exposure. That potential garbage time upside isn’t worth risking a possible goose egg in your championship lineup. Vaughn has reached 1 full fantasy point in just 2 of the 5 games where he got at least 1 touch.
RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 16: @GB): Evans made a splash in his first extended action of the season last Sunday, putting up 57 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but much of that came with the Titans up multiple scores. This week’s game should be a much tougher one in Green Bay as a 3.5-point underdog. I don’t expect there to be much garbage time for Evans to do work, and would avoid him in any lineups this week.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 16: @Jax.): Mooney has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks, but his volume has been limited with the Bears playing with leads in the last two weeks. He’s averaged 3.5 targets per game in those two contests, and had only seen fewer than 4 targets once in the 10 games prior. This week the Bears are a heavy favorite in Jacksonville against a Jaguars team that has zero reason to win this game. Jacksonville is a bad pass defense, ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 8th-most points per game to wide receivers, but the Bears should have limited passing volume. If you play Mooney anywhere, you’re hoping he gets in the end zone. He hasn’t reached 70 scrimmage yards in any game this year. I think Jimmy Graham or Cole Kmet are more likely to be the recipients of any ancillary passing scores this week.
WRs Jalen Reagor & Quez Watkins, PHI (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Reagor and Watkins both set season-highs for targets last week against the Cardinals, but neither player topped 50 yards and I wouldn’t expect them to repeat their target totals this week. I guarantee the Eagles don’t want Jalen Hurts throwing the ball 44 times if he doesn’t have to, and the Cowboys have allowed more rushing yards than any team in the league. The Cowboys also allow the 5th-most WR points per game, but Reagor should see a few less targets this week and hasn’t posted a double-digit fantasy day all season. Watkins’ 3-40-1 line last week was the first real production he’s posted all year. Reagor may be worth a dart throw in a DFS tournament, but neither player should be trusted for your fantasy championship.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 16: @Pit.): Pittman has weekly upside, but this week he faces off with a Steelers’ defense that allows the 9th-fewest WR points per game, and he’s seen his targets decline in recent weeks. He hasn’t caught for 50+ yards in any of the last 4 games, and has seen just 13 total targets in the last 3. You can’t count on a big uptick this week in your league finals.
WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 16: @LAC): Jeudy and Hamler are both capable of solid days here, but we’ve seen enough overall struggling from Drew Lock and the Broncos’ passing game in recent weeks to steer clear of both this week in your lineups. Jeudy has caught just 4 of his 13 targets since Lock’s return from the COVID list 3 weeks ago, and Hamler hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any of those 3 games either. The Chargers allow the 11th-fewest WR points per game. If there is a blowup game from one of these two, let it happen from your bench.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): With John Brown set to return this week, Davis will return to being a part time player that shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups. He’s only topped 50 yards in a game where Brown was healthy once all year. Even if Brown sits, Davis would be a dicey option in a matchup where the Bills would be wise to run more than throw. The Patriots will be without Stephon Gilmore, but they won’t lack for cornerback talent, and Davis has been held to fewer than 20 yards receiving in each of the last two weeks. He’s been able to find the end zone in 3 of his last 4 games, but you’d be praying for another TD if you play him anywhere this week.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Ruggs is practicing this week and may be activated from the COVID list ahead of this game, but he’ll be impossible to trust in the fantasy finals. Ruggs did have two of his 3 best receiving yardage games of the season in the 3 weeks before being placed on the list, so he was trending in the right direction, but he’s topped 60 yards just twice all year and scored just 2 TDs on the year. Leave him sidelined against the defense that ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 16: @NYJ): DPJ has now topped 50 receiving yards in each of the 4 games where he’s played 50% or more of the offensive snaps, and this week the Browns face off with a Jets’ defense that is solid against the run but is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Jets are 29th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 7th-most WR points per game. Peoples-Jones still hasn’t caught more than 3 passes in any game this season, so counting on him in the fantasy finals is a risky proposition. He has nice upside for DFS tournaments though and a reasonable price tag of just $3,700 on DraftKings.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Mims was quiet in week 15 as the Jets very unexpectedly played from ahead and were able to lean on the run game, and I wouldn’t expect that to be the case this week. The Browns have been in a groove on offense of late, and the Jets should go back to their usual hapless ways. That means they’ll be throwing a lot. The Browns have been a very vulnerable pass defense, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 10th-most WR points per game. They got back their top corner Denzel Ward from injury last week, and he should be shadowing Breshad Perriman in this game. That could open things up for Mims to have a nice day. There is still a low floor here. Sam Darnold doesn’t take a lot of deep shots and he typically leans on Jamison Crowder as his first option, but Mims’ downfield skill gives him more upside if he does see a few longer targets come his way. He costs just $3,600 on DraftKings and 70+ yards and a score isn’t a far-fetched stat line for the rookie.
WRs Marquez Callaway & Juwan Johnson, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Min.): The Saints will have to throw to someone other than Alvin Kamara and Emmanuel Sanders this Friday, and with Michael Thomas on IR and Tre’Quan Smith ruled out for week 16, Callaway and Johnson are the next men up. Callaway had a couple notable weeks earlier this season when Thomas was out, including an 8-75 line on 10 targets against the Panthers in week 7. He’s been on IR himself the past few weeks, but is set to return Friday. Johnson was the guy who served as the WR2 last week when Smith left with injury. He played 76% of the offensive snaps, but caught zero of his 4 targets. The Vikings do allow the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so there is upside to any receiver who sees targets in this one. After Sanders, I think Callaway is the most likely to have a useful fantasy game, and he costs just $200 on DraftKings for the Showdown slate for the game. Johnson is a little pricier at $2,200. I wouldn’t consider either for your finals though.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 16: @NYJ): Bryant doesn’t have huge upside this week, but he gets a great matchup. Bryant hasn’t seen more than 2 targets in any game that Austin Hooper was active for this season, but the Jets have given up 8 touchdowns to opposing tight ends in their last 6 games, and plenty of yards to go along with them. Austin Hooper is the better play, but Bryant is worth a dart throw as a cheap option if you play the showdown format for this game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you bring home the league crown. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Christmas and on Saturday and Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player (that’s right, there are 3 more Saturday games this week). If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I will be back next week for those of you with week 17 title games or who will still be playing DFS. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
