Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s finally time for the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you’ve survived this far and have a meaningful matchup this week, or even better a bye into week 15. The end of the fantasy regular season brought some big-time performances from the rookie crop. Henry Ruggs helped the Raiders avoid being the first team to fall to the Jets this season. Jonathan Taylor had a long touchdown catch where he was untouched, and then racked up 73 fourth quarter rushing yards to help the Colts salt the game away. We also saw Brandon Aiyuk put up a huge game on Monday night, and JK Dobbins follow suit on Tuesday. Jalen Hurts took over as the new QB in Philly, and Justin Jefferson found the end zone for the third straight week. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses for the rookie class though. Justin Herbert had the worst game of his young career in a shutout loss to New England. Standout running back Antonio Gibson left early on Monday with turf toe and will be out in week 14, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was active on Sunday night, but was just the emergency back and didn’t play a single snap. It was a true nightmare scenario for people who played either of those backs. Which rookies will help you and which will hurt you in week 14? Let’s take a look and find out…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
Rookies to Start:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Herbert had a disastrous game last week against the Patriots. It was the first time all year he was held without a touchdown, the first time all year he was held below a 58% completion percentage (he completed 49%), and just the 2nd time he’s thrown multiple interceptions in a game. If you made the playoffs with Herbert as your QB in spite of that performance, you shouldn’t be afraid to fire him back up this week. Throw away the tape from last week and trust that he will bounce back against the defense that allows the most QB fantasy points per game. Even including last week’s game, Herbert is averaging nearly 22 fantasy points per game and is the QB8 for the season. There should be plenty of volume for both offenses in this game, as both teams rank in the top-5 in the league in pace (fewest seconds per play run). I’d go into Sunday with confidence that Herbert will deliver 20+ points this week or at least close to it.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Robinson has proven that he is start-worthy every single week. He’s the RB4 on the year, has 70+ scrimmage yards in all but 1 game this season, and 10+ fantasy points in all but 2 games. He gets to face the defense allowing the 7th-most RB points per game, a defense he roughed up for 19.5 points in week 2. You’ve likely gotten to this point *because* of James Robinson. You’ve got to continue to trust him in the playoffs if you have him.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 14: @LV): If you trusted Jonathan Taylor last week you were handsomely rewarded with a 21-point performance, but his usage early in the game was still concerning. Taylor finished the game the highest snap share of the Colts’ backs (48%), but entering the 4th quarter he had just 3 rushing attempts and 2 receptions. He was lucky enough that the Texans forgot to defend him on one of the receptions and he strolled 39 yards for a touchdown, but he didn’t see the ball much aside from that catch until the last quarter. He was dominant in the 4th, piling up 70 rushing yards on 10 carries, but without that we would be wondering if he was back in the doghouse. I’m confident that there is no way the Colts’ coaching staff could watch that 4th quarter and then go right back to the same usage pattern against another bad run defense this week. Taylor should be involved early and often in Vegas. The Raiders rank 31st in the league in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and allow the 4th-most RB points per game. Despite the questionable usage, Taylor has seen 35 rushing attempts and 7 receptions in his last 2 games. His floor makes him a flex play this week, but I think this is more likely to be a ceiling week. He has high RB1 upside this week. He could be a steal at his $5,800 price tag on DraftKings.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Swift sounds likely to play this week, and if he does he should probably be in your lineup. There is a risk that he won’t play the kind of snap share he was seeing before his concussion, but the Packers allow the 3rd-most RB points per game and a large chunk of that comes from receiving production. Green Bay has allowed the 2nd-most RB receiving yards per game and the 8th-most RB receptions. Swift is by far the best receiving back on the Lions’ roster. Game script should be negative for Detroit, so they’re likely to be throwing. The only teams to not get a running back to 12+ fantasy points against the Packers were the Lions in week 3 (Swift only played 6 snaps) and the Eagles’ broken offense last week. Check to make sure he’s active Sunday, but if he plays, Swift will likely finish as at least an RB2.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 14: @TB): In recent weeks it appears Jefferson has taken the next step and has gone from a volatile WR2 with some huge blowup games to a consistent weekly WR1. He’s now strung together 4 consecutive 15+ point games (only 2 games with 15+ in his first 8 games) and saw his two highest target totals of the season in the last two weeks. Tampa Bay has been a tough matchup against WRs for much of the season, but there have been some cracks in recent weeks. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both reached 130 yards against them in week 11, and Tyreek Hill caught for 200 against them in a single quarter in week 12. The Bucs have had an extra week to prepare for this game, but they’re likely to be without their #2 CB Jamel Dean in this game. Top corner Carlton Davis will probably be shadowing Adam Thielen, and if that’s the case Jefferson will most often match up with Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has allowed a 119 passer rating on 69 throws into his coverage. Don’t be afraid to fire up Jefferson as your WR1 again this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): It’s tough to know what to expect this week from Tua given that this isn’t an easy matchup for a QB and the offense will be a bit shorthanded, but those same factors could also lead to a pass-happy game plan for the ‘Phins. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, and the Dolphins are missing their top 3 running backs. The guys they do have available (DeAndre Washington & Patrick Laird) are both better suited to a 3rd down pass catching role, so they may have some trouble establishing the run game. The Chiefs have allowed the 12-fewest QB points per game, but they’ve been shakier in recent weeks. KC has allowed 2 or more TD passes in 4 straight games, and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in 3 of them. Tua set a new career-high with 39 pass attempts last week, and he could make a run at that number again. I’d view him as a lower-end QB2 with upside.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 14: @Mia.): Edwards-Helaire let down a lot of fantasy players last week when he was active on Sunday night but didn’t play a single snap. That’s not likely to happen again this week. CEH should be good to go for week 14, and this is a reasonable spot for a nice game for the rookie. The Dolphins are easier to run on than throw, ranking 24th in run defense DVOA and 6th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are a team that can shred even the best pass defenses, but this is still a week where they would be smart to keep Clyde in the game plan. Le’Veon Bell didn’t look very explosive last week, and the Dolphins have allowed at least one running back to run for 65 yards or more in 4 of their last 5 games. In the only game they lost in that stretch, Denver had two different backs each reach 80 rushing yards. The Chiefs are a touchdown favorite in this one. CEH should have a good chance to return RB2 value this week even if he doesn’t find the end zone.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Dobbins has been productive in recent weeks, with 70+ rushing yards and a TD the week before and the week after his stint on the COVID list, but he’s done that against bad run defenses (Tennessee and Dallas). He’s still sharing more of the running back load than I’d like and turning limited opportunities into production. He played less than 40% of the snaps against the Cowboys and touched the ball just 11 times. It’ll likely take more work than that to post a similarly productive day against the Browns. Cleveland allows the 9th-fewest running back points per game. Dobbins did get in the end zone twice against these Browns in week 1 and he’s certainly the most explosive back in this backfield, but if you start him you’re hoping he continues to be productive on limited touches, and doing so in a tougher matchup. I’d view him as a flex play this week.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Aiyuk gets a tough matchup this week against a Washington team allowing the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and a tough individual matchup with Kendall Fuller, but he’s been productive in tough matchups before. The Football Team has given up long TD passes to Amari Cooper and James Washington in each of their last two games, and Aiyuk is pretty much the only downfield receiving threat the 49ers have. In the last 4 games he’s been active for, Aiyuk has averaged 10 targets and 94 yards per game and found the end zone in 3 of them. Even in this tougher matchup, he’s likely to be a solid WR3.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Higgins draws the best matchup he’s had since before the team’s bye in week 9. The ceiling has been capped with Brandon Allen at QB, but he’s still seen 13 targets in the last two weeks with Allen starting and Dallas allows the 4th-most WR points per game. In their last 6 games, Dallas has allowed 11 wide receivers to reach double-digit fantasy points. Higgins should be a pretty safe bet for 10+ points, and this week will probably be about as good a chance as you’ll have to get him in the lineup the rest of the way.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Claypool was surprisingly limited to just 31 snaps and 4 targets last week, losing playing time to James Washington. It was his first game with fewer than 8 targets since week 7, and there is no guarantee that number bounces back this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster gets the best individual matchup of the week against Taron Johnson, and Diontae Johnson has the safest target share (at least 10 targets in every full game he’s played this year). 60+ yards and a TD is always possible for Claypool, but this week he’s more of a borderline WR3 than a guy I would fire up with confidence.
WR Michael Pittman, Jr. (Wk. 14: @LV): Last week’s blowup game by TY Hilton shows that I may have been a little early to anoint Pittman as the WR1 in Indy, but he gets another decent matchup this week with the Raiders. Vegas allows the 13th-most WR points per game, but that number would probably be higher if they weren’t also bad at stopping the run. Even if he truly hasn’t overtaken Hilton yet, Pittman has still been utilized a lot in recent weeks and has a solid connection with Philip Rivers. In his last 5 games, Pittman has averaged 6.4 targets, 4.2 catches, and just under 60 yards per game. He had an inefficient performance in week 12 with just 2 catches on 9 targets, but if you throw that game away he and Rivers have connected on 15 of the last 16 throws in his direction. If the targets are there again this week, the points will be too. He’s an upside flex play.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Lamb managed to make it 5 straight weeks with at least 4 receptions last Sunday, but he still hasn’t caught for more than 71 yards in a game not started by Dak Prescott. Amari Cooper draws the toughest individual matchup among the Cowboy receivers against Cincy’s #1 corner William Jackson, so there could be a couple extra throws that come Lamb’s way. CeeDee should mostly face off with Mackensie Alexander in the slot. Alexander has allowed nearly a 70% completion percentage into his coverage, but just 6.3 yards per target and zero touchdowns on 45 throws in his direction. Lamb remains a floor play flex option once again.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): Kmet finally saw the targets to match his snap share last week. He’s out-snapped Jimmy Graham for 3 straight games but had nothing to show for it until last Sunday. Facing off with a defense that allows the 8th-fewest tight end points per game, Kmet managed to put up 5-37-1 on 7 targets. Houston isn’t as tough on the position, allowing the 16th-most points. Kmet is far from a safe option, but he’s in play as a borderline TE1 this week at what has been a barren fantasy position once you get past the top few options.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): The Eagles have made the bold decision to turn to Hurts at QB this week and send Carson Wentz to the bench. This move might’ve been made sooner if the Eagles didn’t have so much invested in Wentz. Wentz has struggled badly, but Hurts gets a tough matchup for his first career start. The Saints rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest QB points per game for the year. There will be a learning curve for Hurts as a passer at the NFL level, and the Eagles offensive line play should be even shakier going forward with Jason Peters out for the rest of the year. Hurts does have a ton of upside as a runner that could make him an interesting QB2 option in one of these final weeks, but I don’t think this is the week to count on that. I’ve seen prop bets for Hurts’ rushing yards this week set at 33.5, and I would be hammering the over on that number. He ran for at least that many yards in every single game at Oklahoma last year, and for 60+ yards in 10 of his 14 games.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Moss had been functioning as the 1-A back of the Bills backfield committee in recent weeks, but a costly fumble deep in their own territory last Monday (that was somehow charged to Josh Allen) changed that quickly. Devin Singletary played most of the snaps after the fumble. Moss will probably play more this week than he did last week, but the way he was completely benched last week leads me to believe he’ll have some work to do to build back the trust from the coaches to go back to his normal role. I’d expect Moss to be more of the 1-B to Singletary for the immediate future, and this week the Bills face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 3rd in run defense DVOA and allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. That’s not a great situation for his fantasy prospects this week.
RB/WRs Lynn Bowden, Jr. & Malcolm Perry, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): News broke this weekend that Myles Gaskin was placed on the Dolphins’ COVID list, and backups Salvon Ahmed & Matt Brieda have both already been ruled out as well. That leaves just DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird as healthy backs on the team, and both are better suited to a 3rd down receiving role. Washington is expected to be the starter, but there has been speculation that Lynn Bowden could help fill some of the void since he played some running back in college. I’m not convinced. Bowden has played the vast majority of his snaps as a pro at wide receiver. His running back eligibility could give him some upside if I was confident that he was going to play most of the snaps at slot WR, but Malcolm Perry’s return from injury throws some doubt on that. Perry is a similarly versatile player who played 78% of the offensive snaps in the last game he was healthy for. Bowden was more productive last week than Perry was before getting hurt, but Perry was playing ahead of Bowden prior to the injury. I’d expect him to take at least some of the slot WR work from Bowden if he’s active. That’s enough to make want to avoid both in a matchup against a defense that allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game.
RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): As expected, Kelley was banished to the bench with both Austin Ekeler and Kalen Ballage active last week. Kelley played just 3 snaps in garbage time of a blowout loss to New England last Sunday. It’s unlikely he sees that playing time increase much without an injury in front of him.
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): In the last two weeks with James Conner sidelined on the COVID list, McFarland played a total of just 25 snaps and posted 41 scrimmage yards. Conner returns this week, so there’s no reason McFarland should be in your lineups.
RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 14: @Jax.): Evans returns from IR this week, so he is a name to remember, but he’ll be competing with Jeremy McNichols for backup work and this is Derrick Henry’s show. The only way he’ll play more than a handful of snaps in this one is if there happens to be garbage time. The Titans are favored by 7.5 and the Jaguars have just one win, so it’s possible that happens, but the Jaguars have lost by more than 4 points just once in their past 5 games. Only one of those last 5 opponents has a record below .500.
WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 14: @Car.): Jeudy and Hamler have flashed fantasy upside at times this year, but the Broncos’ passing game is tough to count on week-to-week. Jeudy in particular hasn’t quite been on the same page with Drew Lock this season, as only 54% of Jeudy’s targets this season have been catchable according to Pro Football Focus. This week’s opponent, the Panthers, allow the 13th-fewest WR points per game, and the guys who have done the most damage against them have been WR1s. Tim Patrick has led the Broncos WRs in snaps in each of the last 3 weeks and has functioned as the WR1 of this offense when healthy. The full list of wide receivers who have put up 15+ points against the Panthers this season is Mike Evans (twice), Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley (with Julio out), and Julio Jones (in the other meeting). None of these Denver receivers are in that ballpark right now. I’d look for a better option this week.
WR Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Johnson has taken advantage of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to emerge in the last couple weeks, posting a line of 8-162-1 in the last 2 games on 14 targets due to missed time by DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault. Mike Glennon has always liked tall receivers, so Johnson has been a popular name in fantasy circles after his recent performances, but I think he goes back to a limited role this week with Shenault on track to return. Viska exited the game last week just before halftime with a thumb injury. This is a plus matchup for wide receivers with the Titans allowing the 5th-most points per game to the position, but I’d be surprised if Johnson sees more than just a few targets. Chark and Shenault are the Jacksonville receivers I’d view as most likely to take advantage of the matchup.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): As the Eagles get healthier at the skill positions, Reagor continues to inexplicably lose target share and snaps to guys who probably shouldn’t be featured ahead of him. Alshon Jeffery played his highest snap share of the season last week, and Zach Ertz’s return is bound to siphon off targets from other weapons as well. In his first game back, he played a higher snap share as the TE2 behind Goedert than Richard Rodgers did in any game this year. Those snaps are going to come from the receivers. Travis Fulgham has taken a bigger hit than Reagor, but it hasn’t been good for the rookie either. He was targeted just once last week in a game where Philly threw the ball 27 times. The addition of Jalen Hurts at QB makes this offense even more unpredictable. Reagor is probably going to be tough to trust in you lineups just about every week the rest of the way.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Ruggs made one of the plays of the week last Sunday when the Jets inexplicably blitzed on the last play of the game and left the speedster one-on-one with undrafted rookie corner Lamar Jackson, and he made them pay with a game-winning TD catch. While it was a feel-good moment for Ruggs, it isn’t a reason for you to start putting him into your fantasy lineups. Last week was just the second time all season that Ruggs topped 8 fantasy points, and he needed that miracle TD to do it. He had less than 5 fantasy points before the final play. This week he faces a Colts defense that allows the 9th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance.
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Like Henry Ruggs, Cephus caught a long TD in a comeback win last Sunday, but as with Ruggs it’s not a reason to trust him going forward. Cephus now has 14 targets in 2 games against the Bears, and 11 total targets in the other 6 games he’s played. Marvin Hall was cut recently after Mohamed Sanu was brought in, and Cephus has been splitting snaps with Sanu and Danny Amendola behind Marvin Jones. Jones has been a full-time player, and in the first game without Marvin Hall it was Sanu at 59% of the snaps, Amendola at 49%, and Cephus at 46%. Sanu has seen his snap share increase each week he’s been with the team, and Amendola was likely being eased back in after missing the previous two games, so there is reason to believe Cephus will play less this week. Jaire Alexander is likely to be shadowing Marvin Jones, so there is upside for the receivers behind him, but I don’t expect Quintez to be the beneficiary.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Devin could’ve been a sneaky play this week if Willie Snead and Mark Andrews weren’t activated from the COVID list ahead of the game. The Browns allow the 7th-most WR points per game, and with Dez Bryant seemingly calling it quits after testing positive for Covid-19 on Tuesday, Duvernay would’ve been in line for a sizable role against that defense if Snead & Andrews were out. With them back he will play his usual role, a role that hasn’t seen him handle more than 3 targets in any game this season. He’s no more than a minimum-priced dart throw in DFS tournaments.
TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Trautman was leading the Saints’ TE group in snaps for a few weeks with Taysom Hill at QB, but hadn’t converted those snaps to production. Last week he dropped to just 35% of the snaps, and posted just 3 catches for 9 yards against the worst TE defense in the league. This week will likely be the last start for Hill this season, and when Brees comes back I’d expect Trautman’s snaps to decrease even further. He’s playing because he’s a better run blocker than the other TE options on the team. We haven’t seen enough production from Trautman to consider him even in another plus matchup this week.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The logic here is pretty simple. The Seahawks are a 2-touchdown favorite playing the worst team in the league. Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson are both less than 100% and Travis Homer is doubtful this week. If the Seahawks put this game away early, we could see a lot of Dallas in the 2nd half, and I like the Seahawks’ chances to put this game away early. The Jets’ new defensive coordinator said the scheme won’t change much with Gregg Williams gone. The Jets are one of the blitz-happiest in the league (3rd-highest blitz rate), and Russell Wilson feasts on defenses that give his receivers one-on-one coverage. The Jets are a better run defense than pass defense, so I expect Russ to carve them up in the first half, and for the Seahawks to put things on cruise control in the second half. Dallas costs the minimum on DraftKings, and could see double-digit touches in a game where the Seahawks implied point total is over 30 points.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): As mentioned with Collin Johnson, the Titans are not a very good defense against wide receivers. They allow the 5th-most points per game to the position and rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Shenault managed to post a useful day last week despite getting injured late in the first half, and this week could have a very favorable individual matchup. The Titans will be without Adoree Jackson, Breon Borders & Kristian Fulton at CB, and the likely guy they’ll ask to step in and start is Tye Smith. Smith has played limited snaps this season, but has allowed 2 TDs and a passer rating of 140.7 on the 11 throws into his coverage. Viska hasn’t really shown a big ceiling this season, but if there is a week for him to do it, it’s probably this one.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): In the 5 games where Davis has played 70% or more of the offensive snaps, he’s posted 58+ receiving yards 4 times, averaging about 60 yards and 10 fantasy points per game in those contests. This one is a tough matchup. The Steelers rank 1st in pass defense DVOA, but there are 11 teams that allow fewer WR points per game than Pittsburgh, and John Brown remains on IR so Davis is likely to play almost every snap. He’s a reasonable flex option of you’re searching for points in a deep league.
WR Darnell Mooney, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): This matchup is a great spot for Allen Robinson, but Mooney could return nice value as well. In each of their 3 games without Bradley Roby, the Texans have allowed the opposing #1 receiver to put up at least 110 yards and a touchdown, but they are a lackluster pass defense overall. They rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last two games with Trubisky at quarterback Mooney has been targeted 15 times. That kind of volume in this matchup gives him a reasonable shot at 50+ yards, a mark he hasn’t reached since week 8.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): KhaDarel Hodge is likely out this week, so Donovan Peoples-Jones should be the WR3 for Cleveland again Monday night. Game script will likely have the Browns throwing more this week than they did last week, and while he hasn’t seen a ton of targets DPJ has made a big touchdown play in both games where he’s played 50%+ of the snaps. There is some question as to whether Marvin Hall will steal any snaps from him in his first active game with Cleveland, but I’d expect it to be mostly Peoples-Jones. The Ravens allow just the 6th-fewest WR points per game, so DPJ is no more than a cheap upside option for DFS tournaments.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Austin Hooper is listed as questionable after popping up on the injury report Friday with a ‘did not practice’ designation for a neck injury. If Hooper misses this game, Bryant has upside in this one if you’re desperate for a tight end. The Ravens have a reputation as a tough defense, but they are in the middle of the pack against tight ends (17th-most TE points allowed per game) and Bryant posted a 4-56-2 line in the one game he played with Hooper sidelined that wasn’t in a monsoon. If Hooper sits, Bryant is probably a borderline top-15 play at tight end this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you advance to next week. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
