Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The fantasy playoffs are upon us. Hopefully you've managed to survive this long and are ready to roll your way to another victory. The rookies are taking over lately. Jameis and Mariota look like legitimate future stars, and week 13's top 7 RBs included 4 rookie backs. If you want to work your way to the title, the rookies should play a big role. Let's take a look at what the rooks have on tap this week...
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 14: vs. NO): Jameis put on a show in leading the Bucs to victory over the Falcons last week, particularly on a long 3rd down conversion run where he 'truck-sticked' several Atlanta defenders. What does he win for his efforts? A showdown with the worst pass defense in the league. The Saints have allowed 23 or more points (all point totals in ESPN standard scoring) to opposing QBs in 5 of their past 6 games and 4+ passing TDs in 4 of their last 5. On the season, the Saints have allowed 7 more TD passes than any other team in the league (only the Eagles are closer than 10 behind). The only thing to fear here is the Bucs' run-happy offense if the Saints don't score enough to force a shootout. Jameis should be a top-10 QB this week.
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA (Wk. 14: @Bal.): Three straight starts, three straight games of at least 14 fantasy points and a touchdown. The Ravens are 14th in Football Outsiders' run DVOA stat (measures defensive efficiency), and in the two starts he's had vs. teams with a better ranking (Pittsburgh & Cincy), Rawls has tallied 230 yards and 2 TDs. You have to start him again this week, regardless of matchup. In his past 4 starts, he hasn't ranked lower than the RB8 in any week.
RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Jacksonville finally started using Yeldon in the red zone last week, and it paid dividends for his owners as TJ found the end zone and finished as the RB2 overall for the week. He has a flex-worthy weekly floor based on volume alone, and there is still an outside shot that the Colts start Charlie Whitehurst this week at QB, which should give Yeldon a very positive game script to work with. Even if Hasselbeck is able to start, the Colts have allowed over 250 RB rush yards in the past two weeks and Yeldon should provide RB2 value against them.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): Johnson didn't disappoint in his first start, finishing right behind Yeldon as the RB3 for the week, and he faces a Vikings defense that ranks 25th in run DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA on throws to RBs. Minnesota is also struggling with injuries, as starting nose tackle Linval Joseph, starting linebacker Anthony Barr, and starting safety Harrison Smith will all miss this game. Johnson shouldn't struggle to finish as a top-20 RB this week.
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 14: @NYJ): Don't be afraid of the Jets' defense this week. On the year New York ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 11th fewest QB points in the league, but Darrelle Revis might be out again and the Jets have allowed 330+ yards and 20+ points to QBs in 4 of their past 7 games. They've allowed those days to New England, Oakland, Jacksonville and Miami, not exactly all elite offenses. Mariota is really putting the pieces together lately, and the emergence of Dorial Green-Beckham will only help going forward. Don't expect another 87-yard TD run, but Mariota will be a solid QB2 this week and is a top-15 overall option at the position.
RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): The Seahawks are one of the toughest draws in the league for opposing RBs, allowing a league-low 10.8 fantasy points per game to them. With the way the Seahawks are scoring lately, this sets up as a game where the Ravens will be playing from behind, and Allen showed his pass game chops with 12 catches in week 13. The Seahawks allow 5.3 RB catches per game, and Allen should continue to see the heavy workload he's seen of late. That should be enough to get him into the lineup in leagues that have a flex spot rather than just 2 RBs, especially PPR leagues. In 2-RB leagues w/o a flex spot, you might have two safer options, but Allen should be in or near the top-20 PPR backs this week.
Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 14: @Chi.): I'm not going to pretend to know what to expect from Jones this week. Every time it seems like either Jones or Morris has taken a stranglehold of the early down role, the team seems to totally go the other direction the next week. It's about as frustrating as the Patriots' running backs from last season. This is a plus matchup, with the Bears ranking dead last in run DVOA and allowing at least 11 RB fantasy points in every single game this season, and Alfred Morris didn't play a snap for the last 3 quarters on Monday night. That points to Jones being a strong flex play this week, but there is always the risk that Morris gets right back in his way. Head coach Jay Gruden said Morris's disappearance was due to game-flow, and I doubt Jones sees 18 carries again, but he certainly has upside.
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): It's getting tough to trust Gurley as the offense crumbles around him. The Rams will go back to Case Keenum at QB this week, a move that brings with it the risk that the offense will implode once again. The Lions seem like an unimposing matchup on paper, ranking in the middle of the pack in both fantasy points allowed to RBs (15th most) and run DVOA (rank 13th), but over their past 4 games they've allowed just 48 RB rush yards per game. Gurley is probably best left on the bench this week despite the massive upside his talent brings with it. If you own him in dynasty, you should still be excited for the future.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 14: @StL): This is an interesting spot for Ameer. The Rams' run defense has been collapsing as his play has improved and his role has grown. Abdullah set a career-high in single-game rushing yards in each of the past 2 games, and the Rams have allowed at least 96 RB rush yards in each of the past 5 games, and 22 fantasy points per game in that stretch (they averaged allowing 14.6 prior to those games). The only concern here is that the Lions have a tendency to abandon the run even when the game script is positive and they are running well. They did it last week against GB, and hopefully they learned from that mistake. Abdullah is a flex option with solid upside this week.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 14: @NYJ): With Revis questionable for this week, Dorial has a chance to build on his breakout game from week 13. What was especially promising was that Green-Beckham bounced back beautifully after making an early mistake that resulted in an interception. He showed all of the skills that make him such a tantalizing talent in piling up 119 yards and a TD on 5 catches. The Jets' pass defense has been gashed for 28+ points by opposing WRs in 5 of their past 6 games (35+ in 4 of them). It's hard to rely on DGB just because he showed us what he was capable of for one game when he's regularly disappointed this season, but the ceiling this week is huge, especially if Revis sits again.
WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Parker put up his second consecutive strong performance in place of the injured Rishard Matthews last week, and Matthews will be out again this week. The new offensive coordinator relied heavily on Lamar Miller and the run game against Baltimore, as Tannehill threw just 19 times, but 5 of them went in Parker's direction. That passing volume is scary low as a team, and you'd hope it comes up this week, but the matchup is a positive one. The G-Men have allowed the 2nd most WR yards in the league, and have given up 200+ yards to them in 4 of their past 5 games. There is a somewhat scary floor based on the pass game volume, but I think Parker is a strong bet to top 50 yards again and he should have WR2 upside this week.
TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 14: @Mia.): Tye has been extremely steady over the past 3 weeks with Larry Donnell out, averaging 67 yards on just under 5 catches per game in that stretch, and there is a good chance he posts a similar line again this week. He's a reasonable low-end TE1 this week and a name to know in case Eifert is out again or you have a starter you don't trust.
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Langford was finally kept out of the end zone in week 13 after scoring in 4 straight games prior to that. What’s more concerning is that Langford was out-touched 26-14 by Matt Forte and even ceded some of the backup work to Ka’Deem Carey, who scored a 4th quarter TD. He managed just 5 fantasy points in a very good matchup on 14 touches and this week gets to face a Washington defense that has allowed 97 RB rushing yards total in the last 2 weeks. The uncertain volume and tougher matchup make Langford a tough guy to trust in playoff matchups this week.
RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 14: @KC): Gordon was benched after fumbling yet again last week, and he's still failed to score a touchdown or put up double-digit fantasy points in any game this year. The Chiefs rank 7th in run DVOA and have allowed the 7th fewest RB fantasy points on the year. This isn't the week that Gordon breaks the 10-point barrier.
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Johnson has a great matchup this week with the 49ers, who have allowed the 2nd most receptions to opposing RBs in the league, and have been awful vs. RBs on the road (Allow 28.3 RB points per game on the road, 7.5 more than any other team averages for the season). The problem is that the quarterback merry-go-round in Cleveland is making the entire offense a wild card. Manziel gets the nod this week, and despite the great matchup there's a real chance that Duke doesn't hit 5 points. He's just too hard to trust for my liking in the playoffs.
RB David Cobb, TEN (Wk. 14: @NYJ): Cobb worked his way into a bigger role last week, garnering double-digit touches for the first time in his career, but he still averaged under 4 yards per carry and gets the best defense in the league in terms of run DVOA this week. Cobb is at best a TD dart throw this week.
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL (Wk. 14: @Car.): Not much explanation necessary here. Coleman went right back to being a backup to Devonta Freeman last week. Feel free to avoid him again. He only really has value if something happens to Freeman.
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): With the new offensive coordinator in Miami, the team seems to have recommitted to Lamar Miller as the feature back. Ajayi played just 8 snaps last week, and while that number may go up this week, there's no reason to be confident it will. Ajayi is a Miller handcuff for now.
RB John Crockett, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Crockett led the Packers in rushing yards last week. It won't happen again. Eddie Lacy was benched due to issues off the field, but coach Mike McCarthy has talked up Lacy as looking 'rejuvenated' in practice this week. Expect a bounce back from Lacy and a return to obscurity for Crockett.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 14: @Den.): Sitting Cooper might sound like a terrible idea if you've been starting him every week, but this really could be a rough week for him. The Broncos have held 4 of the last 6 opponents they've played to 3 or fewer points from their entire WR groups. Cooper has failed to find the end zone in the past 4 games, and Denver has allowed just 1 WR TD all season long. There is a much lower floor than we typically see from Cooper. When he lines up outside he should see a lot of Aqub Talib. If they move him into the slot he gets Chris Harris. Either way he's facing one of the league's elite cover corners. If he tops 50 yards it would be a win for him this week.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 14: @Ari.): Things aren't promising for Diggs right now. Even in a 31-point drubbing last week, the Vikings attempted just 28 passes. Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson complained about not getting enough carries. I'd expect the Vikings to be committed to the run early, and the pass volume to be low again, even if they're playing from behind. Diggs has come up short of 50 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 outings, and the Cardinals rank 3rd in the league in pass DVOA. It's hard to bet on Diggs to top that 50-yard mark this week.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): I was surprised to see Funchess pushed back to the bench with the return of Corey Brown. He failed to come up big in a game with a lot of passing volume for Carolina (despite a TD), so I'd be hard pressed to trust him in a game that sets up to have a lot less of it. Funchess would need to find the end zone to be productive this week, and the Falcons have allowed just 4 WR touchdowns in 12 games. Betting that Funchess scores one this week isn't something I'm prepared to do.
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 14: @Chi.): Crowder made a few grabs and did a few positive things in an ugly Monday night loss for Washington, but 4-for-40 is pretty much his ceiling at this point with the Washington WRs all healthy. The Bears' real issue will be containing DeSean Jackson, not Crowder.
WRs Devin Smith & Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): The Titans have been shredded for 7 WR TDs in the past two games, and the Jets' pass attack is humming right now. There is sneaky shootout potential in this game, and there should be enough passing action to go around for more than just Marshall and Decker. That means there is a chance for Smith or Enunwa to have a nice game, but good luck guessing which one it'll be. Smith has the better shot at a TD, but Enunwa's volume is slightly more consistent. Your best bet is to avoid both.
TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 14: @Den.): Walford set his career bests in catches and yards in week 13, but I wouldn't bank on a repeat this week. The Broncos have struggled to contain TEs the past two weeks, but they faced Gronk and Antonio Gates. Prior to those two games, no team had put up more than 6 TE catches against Denver. Walford is best left on the bench this week.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 14: @Phi.): There is a ton of volatility to Williams. I wouldn't trust him in the fantasy playoffs, but he has some DFS upside as a punt play this week. The Eagles stunned the Pats last week, but they'd been collapsing for weeks prior to that, and this is a good spot for a letdown game. Philly has been forking over 27.5 RB points per game over the past 4 games, and while this has been talked up as LeSean McCoy's revenge game, if the Bills get way up Williams could get some garbage time carries against a collapsing defense. He still has scored TDs in 6 of the 8 games he's played. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure Williams is active before taking a shot on him, but there should be some opportunity for him and no one else is likely to be on him this week.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 14: @Bal.): Lockett could wind up on the PPR WR3 radar this week. His role seemed to increase last week with Jimmy Graham out for the season, and the Ravens rank 26th in pass DVOA. His efficiency has been insane this year. He's hauled in 35 catches on just 40 targets, including 7-of-7 in week 13. If he continues to see 6-8 targets, he should return borderline WR3 value in PPR leagues the rest of the way.
WR JJ Nelson, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): As mentioned earlier, the Vikings' defense will likely struggle while missing an impact player at every level of the defense. The lack of Harrison Smith should make them more vulnerable to the deep ball than usual, and Arizona has been taking a couple deep shots to Nelson each week, even with the top 3 WRs healthy. Nelson has had at least 5 fantasy points in each of the past 4 games, and he could make an intriguing DFS punt play yet again this week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some tough lineup decisions and advance in your playoffs. If you have any specific start/sit questions or feedback, or just want to yell at me about my opinions, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're just a week away from Championship Week in most leagues, so hopefully your team is still standing (both literally and figuratively). Week 14 was a brutal one for injuries. I was bounced from 3 different league playoffs with teams that each started one of Andy Dalton or Thomas Rawls, and one of them also had Tyler Eifert. It didn't help that I got horrible efforts from Calvin Johnson, Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, Jeremy Maclin, Larry Fitzgerald and Brian Hoyer (2 separate 2-QB leagues), but that's neither here nor there. TJ Yeldon also went down in last week's carnage. After last week, the running back position is getting mighty thin, so expect a lot of RB insight in this week's write-up. There is only one rookie that I feel confident in telling you is a must-start this week, but plenty more who could and should make an impact. Let's dive in....
Rookies to Start:
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 15: @Phi.): Yes, David Johnson is the only rookie that I can say with total confidence that you should be starting this week. He's thrived in the starter's role the past two weeks, putting up 120+ scrimmage yards in in each contest and scoring a TD in one. The Eagles rank 21st in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA (measures defensive efficiency), and they've allowed 100 RB rushing yards and or a running back TD in 5 of the 6 games played since their bye. Arizona should control the game, which should keep Johnson running all day. He has an RB2 floor and RB1 ceiling.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Gurley had a monster bounce-back game last week, but that doesn't mean he's out of the woods just yet. He's still a boom-or-bust option, albeit one with overall RB1 upside when he booms. The key last week was that the Rams were able to play from ahead, keeping the run game in play long enough for Gurley to wear down the defensive front and start ripping off chunk plays in the 2nd half. That's been his MO all season, and keeping this game close will be critical to him having another big day. Tampa does rank 5th in run DVOA, and the Rams have almost no passing game to speak of, but I like the chances that the St. Louis defense keeps this game close and allows Gurley to return at least RB2 value. My only hesitation is the low floor we've seen if the Rams fall behind.
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Jones has finally appeared to emerge as the lead back in Washington, out-touching Alfred Morris 39-17 over the past 2 weeks. Buffalo ranks 28th in run DVOA, and every team that has had 17 RB carries against Buffalo has picked up at least 85 rushing yards on them. Jones has 18 carries on his own in each of the past two games. The Bills have also allowed 7 RB rushing scores in their past 8 games. Despite Jones's inefficiency, with RB so thin this week he's a decent flex play and boasts high RB2 upside.
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 15: @NO): Ameer had his worst game in 3 weeks last Sunday, and still managed 44 scrimmage yards against a defense that ranks 12th in run DVOA. The Saints rank 27th. The Saints have been giving points to RBs almost as freely as they do to QBs, allowing the 2nd most RB points in the league. I expect Abdullah to get back to double-digit carries this week, and in this matchup that could make him an upside flex in leagues with 12 teams or more.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Cooper will be happy to be rid of Aqib Talib this week after Talib held him catchless on 8 targets, but the Packers are no cakewalk either. They've allowed just one WR to reach 70 yards in the past 5 games (Alshon Jeffery), and they've allowed just 4 top-20 weekly WR finishes all year. The Raiders should funnel Cooper targets early to get him back on track, but he's definitely more of a WR3 option than locked in WR2. I'd feel much more comfortable starting him if Green Bay's top corner Sam Shields misses this game with the concussion he suffered last week.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): The bump in volume for Tyler Lockett in week 13 proved to not be a fluke. After seeing a season-high 7 targets in the first game after Jimmy Graham went down, he saw another 7 this past Sunday. With those 14 targets, he pulled in 13 of them for 194 yards and 2 TDs. He now boasts a ridiculous 41 catches on 47 targets for the year (87.2% catch rate, best of any WR targeted at least 10 times). As long as that volume holds up, and I expect it to, Lockett should remain a decent WR3 option.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 15: @NE): Dorial has flashed great potential at times this season, especially over the past 2 weeks, but he was back to being inconsistent last Sunday following his breakout game vs. Jacksonville. The good news...he was targeted 7 times and got open consistently. He'll remain a volitile weekly option, but his talent and role give him WR2 upside, even versus the emerging New England secondary.
TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Walford has finally started to see substantial volume over the past 2 weeks. He's got 8 catches for 100 yards on 12 targets over the past two games. The Packers are in the bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to TEs (all point numbers based on ESPN standard scoring) and have allowed a tight end touchdown in 5 of their past 6 games. Despite the presence of Mychal Rivera to steal some TE snaps, Walford is a solid streaming option this week.
TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Car.): The matchup is really imposing for Tye, but he's scored at least 5 fantasy points in each of his past 4 games and 7 in each of his past 3. With Josh Norman likely to match up with Odell Beckham a bunch (not sure if Norman will follow Odell to the slot), look for Tye to remain a key piece of the offense in situations where Norman is on Beckham. There isn't a huge ceiling here, but Tye should be a safe bet for 40-50 yards, which is better than taking a shot on someone who may goose egg if you're streaming at tight end. Tye has been returning borderline TE1 production over the past month.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 15: @NE): Mariota has been playing excellent football lately, scoring 17+ points in every game except versus Carolina since he returned from injury in week 9. He's found a variety of ways to get to the end zone, even catching a 41-yard TD on trick play last week. He gets a real test this week though. The Patriots do a great job of erasing the opposition's top targets, so look for them to focus primarily on Delanie Walker, and secondarily on Dorial Green-Beckham. The Patriots' secondary has been really coming together of late, seeing standout play from both Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler. New England has allowed 12 points or fewer to opposing QBs in 6 of their last 7 (Eli is the exception). I wouldn't be willing to try Mariota as anything more than a low level QB2 this week.
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 15: @StL): Jameis was a huge letdown last week in an excellent spot, and he gets much stiffer opposition this week. The Rams have allowed a QB to reach 20 fantasy points just twice all year, and the Bucs will be without Vincent Jackson. Mike Evans should spend most of his day squaring off with Trumaine Johnson, who just held Megatron to 1 catch for 16 yards on Sunday. Jameis has proven to have a usable floor in 2-QB leagues, scoring at least 12 points in every game this season, but he's not on the QB1 radar this week.
RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): As of now, Yeldon appears to be a longshot to play with a sprained knee. The Jaguars signed Jonas Gray, and head coach Gus Bradley didn't update the media on Yeldon's status on Tuesday. Typically coaches are eager to share good news on the injury front. Even if Yeldon is able to go, I'd expect him to see a limited workload and split touches with Denard Robinson. Given that he's gotten by all year on volume, a split workload would make him a dicey flex play even in this plus matchup.
RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. KC): Allen showed what his floor looks like last week w/o Matt Schaub in a tough matchup with the Seahawks, and it wasn't god awful (56 scoreless yards on 13 touches). That's not what you're hoping to get out of a starter though. This week he faces a Chiefs' defense that is arguably just as stingy as the Seahawks, and they also boast the best pass DVOA in the league on passes to running backs. If you're okay with about 5 points in standard scoring or 10 in PPR leagues, go ahead and play Allen. There isn't much more ceiling than that this week.
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 15: @Min.): Since Matt Forte returned from injury, Langford has averaged just 14 touches and 57 scrimmage yards/game, and he's been held under 70 yards and without a TD in each of the last 2. Both were plus matchups (home against San Francisco and Washington). This week he faces a Vikings team that has allowed just 2 RB scores in 9 games since their bye, and over 16 RB points just once in that span. Given the time share with Forte, I doubt Langford gets enough volume to make a fantasy impact. He's best left on the pine.
RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 15: @Sea.): Don't expect a repeat of last week's rushing output for Duke. He still gets by on his passing game work, and he just doesn't get as much of it with Johnny Manziel starting. In the 5 games where Manziel has started or seen extended playing time, Duke has just 7 total catches. Even if you throw out the first 2 games of the year, which were before Johnson had established his passing game role, he's still averaged just 2.3 catches per game in the other 3. Facing an imposing matchup this week, Duke will be hard pressed to return RB3 value in any format.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 15: vs. Chi.): The passing volume was finally there last week for Minnesota, with Teddy Bridgewater throwing for nearly 340 yards on 25 completions, but just 11 of them were to wide receivers and only 2 were to Diggs. He still sees a healthy percenage of the Minnesota passing targets, but I don't expect that big volume again this week. Teddy B has thrown for under 200 yards in 5 of the past 7 games, and Minny should lean on AP this week facing a Bears' defense that ranks dead last in run DVOA. I'd be at least a little surprised if there's enough work for Diggs to top 50 yards.
WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 15: @NYG): With the season on the line, now is not the time to play a low-floor touchdown dart throw wide receiver. In his best game without a TD, Funchess tallied just 4 points. Yikes.
WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 15: @SD): I can't trust Parker this week after his 2-16 line on Monday Night Football. He may bounce back this week, but I expect him to see quite a bit of Jason Verrett, who has been an elite cover corner. Verrett rarely ventures into the slot, so he likely won't shadow Jarvis Landry, and Parker struggled versus Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie last week. This week shapes up for a heavy dose of Landry.
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): Don't chase last week's points. Agholor has done next to nothing all year, and outside of a 53-yard TD catch last week, he caught just 2-of-5 targets for 9 yards. You can't start him this week.
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Buf): Crowder has shown over the past few weeks that he should only be under consideration if DeSean Jackson misses this game. Even if Jackson is out, Crowder's ceiling has settled in around 5 catches for 50 yards. You should be aiming higher with the season at stake.
Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Gordon continued his disappointing rookie campaign last week, adding a 13th straight game without a touchdown, but his role has been constant and even increasing down the stretch of the season. With this year a lost cause, the Chargers have started to lean on Gordon in situations where they used to go to Danny Woodhead. Gordon has had at least 13 touches in each of his past 6 games, and at least 49 scrimmage yards in each (over 60 in 4 of them). Of the 6 opponents he faced in that stretch, 5 were in the top-11 in run DVOA. Miami ranks 23rd. If he sees 15+ touches, Gordon is a decent bet to top 75 yards and just might find his way to his first TD of the year.
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 15: @SD): On the other side of the Miami-San Diego game, Jay Ajayi isn't a consideration for the fantasy playoffs, but he could be an intriguing punt play in DFS tournaments. The Dolphins are now mathematically out of the playoff race, and Ajayi could see an expanded role down the stretch. San Diego is 31st in run DVOA and has allowed 100+ RB rushing yards in 10 of 13 games this year. There is really nice upside if Ajayi can find his way to double-digit touches.
WR Adam Humphries, TB (Wk. 15: @StL): Admittedly, Humphries would be a hard sell to play in just about any but the most insanely deep fantasy games, but I like this spot for him. He did only haul in one catch last week for a 6-yard touchdown, but with V-Jax out and Evans facing a tough matchup with Trumaine Johnson, the ball has to go somewhere. I still expect 7-10 targets to go to Evans, but Humphries should see a handful as well, and he's topped 50 yards twice this season. I like his chances to put up a career-high yardage day.
TE Tyler Kroft, CIN (Wk. 15: @SF): Ok, you can't trust a guy with just 4 catches on the season in your fantasy playoffs...I get it. But, there is some DFS punt play appeal. 2nd-string QBs tend to have a rapport with 2nd-string pass catchers, and Eifert's status is likely in doubt this week as he suffered a concussion in the week he returned from a neck stinger. Kroft pulled in 2 catches for 31 yards in relief of Eifert on Sunday, and he could see a bigger role in a game the Bengals should win easily. The 49ers rank 23rd in pass DVOA on throws to tight ends.
TE Blake Bell, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): The Belldozer has put up stat lines of 3-68 and 3-49 in two of his past 3 games, and is in line to start at TE again if Vance McDonald is out once more. Bell actually led the team in receiving last week against the Browns. He's a streaming option in super deep leagues as the starting tight end on a team that likes to utilize the position.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you advance to the title game (or to the semis if your league goes through week 17. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about something I wrote, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! This week’s report will be a little bit different. For the most part, season-long leagues have already come to a close…at least if they have a reasonable commissioner. Week 17 is a nightmare to try to predict. It’s like trying to guess what will happen in the lesser bowl games in college. It’s all about which team is motivated to win, which team is motivated to play their starters, and which team is motivated to just get the year over with. Because of this, it’s nearly impossible to accurately predict what will happen in a lot of the games. The wackiness of week 17 will cause me to change things up just a little bit this week and put more of a focus on daily fantasy games. There won’t be a ‘Deep League Sleepers’ section or a ‘Rookies to Sit’ section this week. For those of you still in season-long leagues, I’ll still list which rookies I’d feel good about starting this week and which ones are borderline options, but I’m also going to list a few DFS punt play options at the end. These are low-priced options that not a lot of people are likely to own that can be difference makers in guaranteed prize pool tournaments if they happen to have a big game.
Before we dive in, here are some rookies that won’t come up in the sections below: QB Marcus Mariota (out with injury), RB TJ Yeldon (Likely out with injury), RB Ameer Abdullah (Not getting goal-line work and not trustworthy), RB Duke Johnson (hasn’t produced 15 PPR points since week 7), RB Jay Ajayi (llimited role and tough matchup), WR Devin Funchess (8 catches in his past 5 games), WR Nelson Agholor (hasn’t produced all year), WR Phillip Dorsett (might have liked him as a punt play, but will have either Ryan Lindley or Josh Freeman throwing him the ball), and TE Maxx Williams (brutal matchup).
Alright, let’s dive in to week 17…
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 17: @SF): Gurley has the best combination of role and matchup of any rookie this week. In the 6 games since their bye week, the 49ers have allowed 132.5 rushing yards and 24.3 fantasy points (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring) per game to opposing RBs, as well as 10 total TDs to the position as well. Gurley put up 146 scrimmage yards and a TD in the first meeting with San Francisco, and it’s one of the few opponents he could face where game script is virtually guaranteed to be neutral or positive for him. He’s a locked in RB1 this week, and would be a chalk play in DFS.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 17: vs. Sea.): The Seahawks allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league, so Johnson isn’t a great DFS target except as a contrarian play in tournaments, but his role has been too big to sit him in season-long leagues. If Arizona wins and Carolina loses, the Cardinals will secure homefield throughout the playoffs, and the games will occur simultaneously, so the Cards won’t know the Panthers’ outcome beforehand. That should keep them from resting starters. Johnson’s passing game usage gives him a floor that will keep him in the RB2 mix even in brutal matchups. He’s averaged just under 150 scrimmage yards with 5 TDs in his 4 starts, and hasn’t had fewer than 120 yards in any of them. Don’t shy away in championship week just because he faces Seattle.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 17: @KC): Cooper has been far more boom-or-bust than I expected this year, and he likely killed you last week if you played him with his 2-10 line. One thing that he has done consistently this year is bounce back from his worst outings. Cooper has scored 5 points or fewer 6 times this year including last weekend. In all 5 of the previous instances, he topped 10 points the following week, averaging a line of 6.4-113-1 in those 5 contests. It also doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs are 24th in Football Outsiders’ Pass DVOA (measures defensive efficiency) on throws to #1 WRs. Kansas City allows 98 yards per game to the opposing #1 wideout, and Cooper put up 4-69 in the first meeting. I like his chances to bounce back this week, and he would make a decent play in DFS and as a WR2 in season-long leagues.
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): Karlos turned in a solid effort last week starting in place of injured LeSean McCoy, picking up 97 scrimmage yards and a TD, but there are a couple of concerns this week. First of all, the Jets are a brutal matchup. They allow the 3rd-fewest fantasy RB points in the league. Second, the recent success of Mike Gillislee as a runner could cause him to cut into Karlos’s workload a bit. Gillislee has gained 239 yards on 23 carries over the past 4 weeks (10.4 ypc), and has scored a TD in each of the past 3. With that said, Gillislee is more effective as a change of pace back and Karlos should continue to run as the lead back. He did manage 10 points against the Jets in a week 10 start, and the Bills still boast the best running game in the league (#1 in rush yards and yards per carry). Karlos might be a little lighter than you’d like on yards this week, but I’d still put him at better than a 50-50 bet to score a TD.
RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin.): Allen was surprisingly impressive against a stingy Steelers RB defense last Sunday. This week he gets to face a Bengals team that has allowed over 6 catches and about 50 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this year, and also 17 or more fantasy points to the position in each of their past 3 games. Allen should be a solid PPR flex play this week, assuming he doesn’t fumble and get benched again.
RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. TB): At this point, it appears that Jonathan Stewart is likely to miss the week 17 game with Tampa and Fozzy Whitaker has already been ruled out. That would leave just Cam Artis-Payne and Mike Tolbert as healthy RBs for the Panthers. Artis-Payne will likely cede goal line carries to Cam Newton and Tolbert, but he put up 49 yards on just 5 carries last week , and the volume should be much better in this one. Tampa has allowed at least one rushing TD to a running back in each of the past 3 weeks, and the backs have totaled at least 26 carries in each of those 3 games against them. I’d expect Artis-Payne to be in the 15 carry range, which puts him in the Flex discussion despite his lack of red zone opportunities.
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. Det,): I would probably avoid playing Langford this week if possible, but when the Lions & Bears get together, you can usually throw out the season numbers. Matt Forte was hampered by a back injury last week, and the Bears seem to be grooming Langford to be the lead back next year. Expect him to see the bulk of the RB volume this week. The Lions have been a tough matchup lately (11.8 RB points per game allowed since week 9 bye, 20.6 per game before the bye), and Ka’Deem Carey has been vulturing some goal-line work lately (2 short scores last week vs. Tampa), but Langford should be on the flex radar on volume alone with so few elite RB options right now.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 17: @Ari.): Lockett was a little bit of a disappointment in week 16, but his volume remained constant. He’s had exactly 7 targets in each of the 4 games since Jimmy Graham went down, and last week was the only game in that stretch where he had fewer than 5 catches and 9 fantasy points. The volume should be there again this week. The Cardinals are a tough matchup as they boast a versatile secondary, but the injury to Tyrann Mathieu improves the pass game outlook for Seattle. Lockett should be a high-risk/high-reward WR3 option this week.
WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 17: vs. NE): The matchup isn’t great this week for Parker, but it isn’t terrible either. The Patriots are middle of the pack in limiting WR fantasy points (allow 15th-most in the league), but their defensive focus is always on taking away the offense’s favorite options. The Pats should make it their goal to take away Jarvis Landry, which should help DeVante find some room to operate. Miami should also be playing from behind, which will keep them throwing, and Parker has 87 or more yards and/or a TD in 4 of the last 5 games. There’s risk that the ‘Fins phone it in with the season essentially over, but I like Parker’s chances at another solid day.
TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): I was surprised Tye didn’t do more with Odell suspended a week ago, but Beckham’s return should open things up for the whole offense. Tye scored 7 or more fantasy points in each of the 4 games leading up to last week’s game without Odell, and the Eagles have allowed double-digit fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 3 of their past 6 games, including 24 to Jordan Reed last Saturday. Tye should find himself in the lower half of the TE1 ranks once again.
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 17: @Car.): You might call Winston more of a contrarian play than a punt play, but his price tag is just $300 more than the minimum for a QB on DraftKings, and with a matchup against the Panthers (allow the 4th-fewest QB points in the league), virtually no one will be using him. While the matchup isn’t good, the game script figures to keep Tampa throwing and the Panthers have been vulnerable to the pass over the past month. Carolina has allowed 22 points to Drew Brees, 23 points to Eli Manning, and 306 yards to Matt Ryan all within the last 4 weeks. Jameis is yet to tally fewer than 12 fantasy points in a game all year, and there is more ceiling in this matchup than you might think. He also remains a floor play QB2 in season-long leagues.
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): This all depends on how healthy Jones is. Washington seems content to rest the majority of their starters this weekend to get ready for the playoffs, but someone has to carry the load at running back. They may look to use Jones more as he shakes off the rust of missing last week with a hip injury. This is a great matchup for the Washington backs, as Dallas ranks 27th in run DVOA on the season, and has allowed 29.3 running back fantasy points per game over the past 3 games. If the team rests Alf Morris and gives Jones enough work to get rolling, he could have really nice upside at a price tag of just $3,900 on DraftKings. Obviously this game is a bit of a wild card, with Washington having little to play for, but the situation is positive if Jones gets enough action to take advantage of it.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 17: @GB): While Diggs hasn’t done a whole lot since his 4-game breakout earlier in the season to convince you he’s a good fantasy option, Green Bay should force Minnesota to throw more than they like to. The Packers rank 26th in pass DVOA against #1 WRs, and Diggs went 6-66 against Green Bay in the first meeting between the teams in week 11. While Diggs is a little more expensive than I would have expected ($4,600 in DraftKings), the price isn’t ridiculous and no one will be on him after his 4-19 showing last week. I wouldn’t be stunned if he ends up in the 20-point range.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 17: @Ind.): With Zach Mettenberger at QB, trusting Dorial even in a reasonably good matchup is tough to do after last week’s goose egg. However, we’ve seen DGB’s ceiling, and it’s impressive. He’s topped 110 yards twice in the past 4 games, and he does have an exploitable matchup if he isn’t locked up with Vontae Davis all game. Indy has allowed the 3rd-most WR points on the year and Green-Beckham will cost just $3,800 in DraftKings.
That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps you set your championship and DFS lineups for this week. I’ll be back within the next couple of weeks with a 2015 rookie recap and will project the 2015 class to next year. If you have any specific questions or complaints, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss) and let me know. As always…good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Draft week is upon us, and for those of us in Dynasty leagues, this certainly doesn't count as 'offseason.' Scouting and staying on top of the NFL rookies is a critical part of the league year, and while landing spots for the top rookies are pretty important, I still like to go into the draft with an idea of who I think the best players are at each fantasy position. With that in mind, here is my pre-draft breakdown of the players to keep an eye out for as you see the drafted names scroll by this weekend. At each of the main fantasy positions, I'll list my top prospects, as well as a couple sleepers of mine and a couple of popular sleepers I think are overhyped. Alright, enough intro...let's dive in:
It's become pretty apparent as we head into the draft that the top two overall picks will be QBs, but I think there are 3 that stand out over the rest. The quarterback position is one where the vast majority of successful NFL starters were first round picks. If you pick a non-first round QB in your rookie draft, you're taking a pretty big gamble. Here's how I see this year's rookie crop:
Top Five:
1. Jared Goff, Cal: Quite simply put, Goff is the safest QB for rookie drafts. You know he's going to the Rams with the first pick, and they aren't selecting him to sit behind Case Keenum. His weapons are going to be limited in year one most likely, but a strong running game should keep the pressure off him. You may be worried about his long-term upside since Jeff Fisher is a run-heavy coach, but Fisher has zero winning seasons in his 4 years with the Rams. If Goff doesn't get them over the 8-8 hump in the next two years, I'd expect L.A. to bring in a coach who will maximize Goff's talents. There will be a learning curve as Goff learns how to play QB from under center, be he seemingly had mastered the Cal offense, and I'd expect him to do the same with the Rams' offense as well over his first couple seasons. Goff's skillset will remind many of Matt Ryan, and I'd put his ceiling in the Ryan range as well. He'll never be an elite fantasy QB, but he can certainly be a QB1 at some point. Goff will likely be a 2nd rounder in most rookie drafts, unless they are 2QB leagues.
2. Paxton Lynch, Memphis: I'm going a little outside of the norm here by not having Goff and Wentz 1 & 2 in some order, but I just don't totally buy into Wenz at this point. I also think Lynch has the potential to be the best fantasy QB in this class. He certainly has work to do to get there, and would be best served sitting behind a veteran starter for at least half a season, but he has the tools to be a really good starting QB. He's got great size at 6'7", 244, and great athleticism. He also does an excellent job of keeping his eyes downfield when he scrambles and looking to throw rather than taking off at the first sign of trouble. He trails only Jared Goff in yards per attempt when under pressure (5.95) and he took just 15 sacks and threw only 4 interceptions all year. He's shown the ability to diagnose and beat the blitz, completing 68% of his throws for 11 TDs and just 1 INT on 81 attempts against blitzing defenses. His performance in Memphis's bowl game hurt his stock a bit, but he was viewed as the best QB in this class before that game, and I think he still may be. Like Goff, he needs to learn to play from under center, and he also needs to land in a situation where there is a path to the starting job by next year. If that happens, Lynch should be taken in your rookie draft by the end of the 2nd round (1QB leagues).
3. Carson Wentz, NDSU: There has been a strange divide between what the scouting community and the NFL teams and their team scouts see in Carson Wentz. The teams love this kid. They see his intangibles, they see his strong arm and athleticism, his size, his accuracy, and they see a franchise QB. The scouts haven't seen the same thing. They see a guy who played against FCS-level competition, was slow through his progressions, looked like his feet were stuck in cement in the pocket, and always looked to run when he scrambled rather than keeping the passing option alive. Those are some pretty serious red flags. While being slow through progressions in FCS means leaving yards after the catch on the field, in the NFL it means turnovers and broken up passes. Not being able to slide your feet in the pocket to avoid pressure means taking unnecessary sacks. Trying to outrun NFL defenders on a scramble will also turn out worse against NFL defenders than FCS ones. Granted, Wentz could improve on these things and develop into a good NFL starter. I just think he has a lot longer way to go than most TV draft experts and the Philadelphia Eagles think he has. I wouldn't take him ahead of Lynch or Goff in rookie drafts, and I certainly wouldn't count on him as a rookie in fantasy.
4. Connor Cook, MSU: Connor Cook is a bit of a mystery to me. At times he looks every bit the part of a future NFL starter. At other times he looks lost, sailing throws to open receivers and making some very questionable decisions with the ball. Who will he be at the NFL level? I think he'll find his way to a starting job at some point, but am not sure how long it'll stick. His experience in big games is a huge plus, and I think most of the accuracy issues he's had are more a result of poor decision-making than poor throws. A good QB coach should be able to minimize those mistakes and make Cook a much more consistent signal-caller. I'm not saying he'll ever be great, but I think he'll carve out a role as a starter and possibly a fantasy QB2 for several years. Think Teddy Bridgewater, Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick level...not great, but serviceable.
5. Christian Hackenberg, PSU: Hackenberg has been seeing some late life in his draft stock over the past few days, but it's hard for me to ignore the past 2 years of game tape. Hack had a very promising freshman year under Bill O'Brien, but in the two years since BOB left Penn St., his mechanics have gone to hell and his accuracy has fallen off a cliff. He's especially erratic when pressured, but he can be inaccurate even when he's not. It's easy to forget that he also had Allen Robinson to throw the ball to in his freshman season, but Hack insists the issue was the coaching change. He still possesses the physical tools teams look for from a QB, but the trick will be getting him back with a coach who can undo the regression of the last 2 years. Since his size and arm strength are the protoype NFL teams look for, I'm sure he'll get a couple chances in the NFL, which is why I rank him this high.
My Sleepers:
1. Cardale Jones, OSU: When it comes to QB sleepers for Dynasty, I prefer to find the guy with mobility and a strong arm. They can learn the rest, but those two tools can't be taught. Since it's pretty much a crapshoot anyway when you're digging this deep...take the guy with the higher floor. Cardale checks the box for mobility, he's got a cannon for an arm, and while he didn't exactly take the starting job and run with it last year, he did make strides as a passer at Ohio State. He still sailed some throws last year and needs to work on playing in a pro-style offense, but the upside is there. He's come a long way from the kid who tweeted out that he didn't go to OSU to 'play school.' I'd even consider Cardale over Hackenberg, especially if you don't need immediate QB help.
2. Dak Prescott, Miss. St.: Prescott, like Cardale, is a plus athlete with a strong arm who needs to learn the position a bit better to be an impact player at the NFL level. His competitiveness and ability as a runner compare to Tim Tebow, but he has much better mechanics in the passing game and a much more accurate arm than Tebow. He actually had a higher completion percentage in college than Goff or Wentz, and with his skillset he could develop into a starter over time.
Overhyped Sleepers:
1. Vernon Adams Jr., Oregon: I've seen a handful of people comparing Adams to Russell Wilson lately, and while those comparisons are only natural - Adams is short, athletic, and an accurate passer - Adams isn't Russell Wilson. Wilson came in to the NFL with a ton of starting experience against top-level competition between NC State and WIsconsin, and Adams has one injury-shortened season at Oregon that followed a career in a similar offense at FCS school Eastern Washington. I love Vernon's swagger. He called himself the 2nd-best QB in the draft after Wentz, and was reminiscent of Willie Beamon at times on the field (if you don't know who that is, go watch the movie Any Given Sunday), but he's got a really uphill battle just to make an NFL roster. If he lands in San Francisco with Chip Kelly, maybe he gets a chance, but otherwise I can't see a good reason to draft him in your rookie draft.
2. Kevin Hogan, Stanford: Scouts will fall in love with Hogan's intangibles and his college W-L record, but he has just an average arm and average accuracy. Against NFL defenses, those are pretty steep disadvantages. Hogan's ceiling is likely that of a career backup.
The running back position has gone through a huge transformation in the NFL over the past 5-10 years as the workhorse back has become a dying breed. Running back by committee situations rule the NFL landscape, and have made it tough for fantasy players to pinpoint the elite backs who will be the unquestioned starters on their teams. When drafting a rookie back early, you want to make sure it's someone with a chance to be the 3-down back who can do it all like Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles or Matt Forte. Sure, there are pure power guys like Marshawn Lynch and LeGarrette Blount who have proven to be capable fantasy starters, but more often than not you are going to want someone more versatile who can score in a variety of ways. When looking for sleepers, that's where it starts to benefit you to find the guys who are really good at one specialized skill like receiving or short yardage rushing. Here are the guys to pay attention to at the RB position:
Top Five:
1. Ezekiel Elliott, OSU: Elliott should be the top pick in just about every Dynasty rookie draft. Regardless of landing spot, he should start right away, and he excels in every phase of the game. He'll be a true 3-down back. He's a powerful and decisive runner, he's a good receiver out of the backfield, and he's one of the best blocking running backs to come along in some time. Pass protection is often the biggest hurdle to getting on the field for a rookie runner, but that definitely won't be an issue for Zeke. Barring injury, he seems like a surefire top-15 RB as a rookie and a guy who will be a fantasy RB1 soon.
2. Derrick Henry, Alabama: Henry's skill set kind of flies in the face of the description I gave above about what type of RB you look for early in a rookie draft. Based on his college tape and numbers, he offers next to nothing as a receiver (think Alfred Morris). However, he's a freak athlete with a nose for the end-zone who should do enough damage on 1st and 2nd down to offset what he loses if he sits on 3rd. There will be scouts and pundits who talk about how he had too many carries in college, and how he doesn't break enough tackles and runs too upright, or how his stats are a product of his o-line. Don't buy any of it. Henry should put up 10+ TDs annually as the power half of a running back committee, and I think he will have multiple 1,000-yard seasons in his career. If he adds to his receiving game skills...look out.
3. Kenneth Dixon, La. Tech.: Like Elliott, Dixon has the skills to be a 3-down back in the NFL. He not quite the runner or blocker that Elliott is, but he excels as a receiver out of the backfield and was ultra-productive in college. He just has the most well-rounded game of any rookie back not named Ezekiel, and his pass blocking chops give him a good chance to be fantasy relevant as a rookie.
4. Paul Perkins, UCLA: Perkins has a slight frame, weighing just 210 lbs, but he is one of the more elusive backs in the draft. He forced a missed tackle every 3.2 carries, which is the best rate of any back in this class who carried at least 100 times last year. He has also showed an ability to run between the tackles despite his size, and in the games I saw he ran with a bit of a mean streak. He also has the skills to be a plus receiver out of the backfield. His size might make pass protection an issue against larger pass rushers, but at the very least he should be able to earn a change-of-pace role as a rookie, and likely more. Based on his size and production in college, Perkins most similarly compares to Shane Vereen, but I like his chances to carve out a bigger role as a runner in his career than Vereen ever has. I'd be really comfortable with Perkins early in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.
5. Jordan Howard, Indiana: Howard is an excellent runner who would likely find himself higher on this list if not for durability concerns. He missed 4 games last year with injury, and parts of the previous 2 seasons as well. He still needs to work on his pass protection technique, but he's a willing blocker. He hasn't shown much as a receiver on his college tape, but he hasn't really had a lot of opportunity to do so. He does have soft hands and could excel in the passing game if given the chance. If you think the injury concerns are overblown, by all means draft him higher. One AFC running backs coach called him the best pure runner in the draft. For me, the injury history is enough reason to drop him down a couple spots.
My Sleepers:
1. Jonathan Williams, Arkansas: Williams ran for over 1,000 yards in 2014 despite splitting time with Alex Collins in a run-heavy Arkansas offense. He was poised for bigger things in 2015 before foot surgery sidelined him for the season. While Collins ran for over 1,000 yards for 3 straight years, it's Williams who projects as the better pro. He has the traits to be a 3-down back if given the opportunity, and he should be available well after Collins in most rookie drafts.
2. Keenan Reynolds, Navy: OK, so this one is a little bit of a longshot, but Reynolds didn't run for 78 rushing scores in the past 3 years by accident. He certainly has a learning curve ahead to transition from a college option QB to an NFL running back, but he certainly has the toughness and athleticism to do it. If he lands on a team with a creative offensive playcaller, he could really carve out a role as a dynamic weapon in the same vein as Denard Robinson. I really think somehow Reynolds winds up a Patriot, and I think Belichick makes good use of him. He's no more than a late round rookie pick in your dynasty drafts, but he's certainly a name to remember.
Overhyped Sleepers:
1. C.J. Prosise, ND: I just don't buy the hype with Prosise. He's been flying up draft boards and rookie rankings among pundits over the past month, and I get what there is to like...He's been through 2 position changes in college (Safety to WR to RB) and continued to be productive. He flashed the speed of a feature back, and his past work at WR gives him a more dynamic skillset in the passing game, but I still feel like his future is basically what we've seen lately from Theo Riddick. Riddick is a nice player and a great PPR asset, but most rookie rankings I've seen have C.J. in the top 4-5 RBs, and that's just higher than I'm willing to take a guy that I see as another Theo Riddick.
2. Devontae Booker, Utah: You will see a lot of rookie rankings that have Booker in their top-5 RBs, and his combine testing and college prodction will back that ranking up, but there are a lot of red flags with Booker. For starters, Booker will play his rookie season at 24 years old. He also needs to work on his pass protection, which can delay how quickly he gets on the field. He had surgery in November for a torn meniscus, which is an injury that can cause future knee problems, and he lacks top-end speed. When you add that all up, he's a guy that should be avoided in the range he's likely to be drafted. I'd love Booker if he fell to the 3rd round...but he won't.
The wide receiver position has become the backbone of a good Dynasty squad. The NFL has become an increasingly pass-heavy league, and wideouts don't typically have the same year-to-year swings in production that the top running backs do. The most successful dynasty teams are typically built around a stable of talented WRs. While this year's class isn't given the same credit the last two classes received, there are plenty of WRs to keep an eye on in the 2016 draft who can be a big help to your fantasy team:
Top Five:
1. Josh Doctson, TCU: For me, Doctson is the number 2 prospect in this entire class behind Ezekiel Elliott. He checks every box...he crushed the physical testing at the combine, he was extremely productive on the field, and he has the measurables you look for in a number 1 wide receiver. The biggest knock on Doctson is that he doesn't have top-end speed. He doesn't need it. He is a technician as a route-runner, and is the best in this class at high-pointing the football and making contested catches. Some scouts will say he needs to bulk up to beat press coverage, but at worst Doctson projects as a very good number 2 WR for an NFL team. The NFL player that I think he compares most closely to is DeAndre Hopkins. Cincinnati would be a perfect fit if he gets to them, and they won't hesitate to take him.
2. Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss: Just like Doctson, Treadwell has caught plenty of flack in this draft process for not being faster. Laquon ran a slower than expected 4.63 40-yard dash at his pro day, but you'd be a fool to let that detract from the fact that he was physically dominant in the SEC. He has prototype NFL WR size, and like Doctson is great at high-pointing the football and winning contested catches over DBs. While there are a lot of similarities between Treadwell and Doctson, I prefer the TCU product because he did a better job of making the tough catches look routine. That penchant for the spectacular catch that Doctson has is the biggest separator for me. Treadwell should still be a top-3 pick in Dynasty rookie drafts.
3. Corey Coleman, Baylor: Unlike Doctson and Treadwell, Coleman has tremendous speed, but while he plays bigger than his size, he still stands just 5'11". He played in a spread offense at Baylor that didn't lead to a lot of contested catch opportunities, but Coleman did struggle a little bit with drops on balls over the middle (10 drops on the year).There is still a lot more to like about Coleman than dislike. He doesn't have the nuance of the position down the way that Treadwell and Doctson do, but he's a tremendous athlete. The most common comparison I've seen for him is John Brown, but I think his ceiling is peak Steve Smith Sr. He should be off the draft board by the middle of the first round of rookie drafts.
4. Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma: Quite simply put, Shepard is the best slot receiver in this draft, and that is a position that has become increasingly important in today's NFL. He may be the best route runner in this draft, and has incredible short-area quickness and agility to create separation in his routes. He is undersized and can struggle against press coverage, but several WRs in this class suffer from that. Shepard has exceptional hands with 253 career catches at Oklahoma with just 8 drops, and scouts and coaches alike rave about his character and work ethic. He'll be a terror in PPR leagues and should be a star in the league at some point. The TD totals likely won't match the top 2 guys in this group, but I'd put my money on Shepard to have the most 90-catch seasons of the guys in this rookie class.
5. Michael Thomas, OSU: Thomas is a guy whose evaluations have been all over the place, but pretty much everyone views him as a top-7 or 8 WR in this draft. He's got plenty of size to play outside (6'3", 212), and has enough speed for the position (4.55 40-yd dash), but he just doesn't look natural as a wide receiver. He struggles a bit with press coverage and with running precise routes, but he's shown good hands and great ability after the catch. Most of his work at OSU was done in the short and intermediate areas, but he may have the skill to develop a deep game. If he can get to a point where he looks like he's just playing the game and reacting rather than thinking on the field, he has a chance to be really good. Without knowing if that will ever come, I'd project him to be a similar player to Michael Crabtree, and he should be taken in the late 1st/early 2nd round of rookie drafts.
My Sleepers:
1. Charone Peake, Clemson: Peake was largely overshadowed in his years at Clemson, playing behind Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Williams, but he finally had a chance to get out from that shadow a little bit last year. Granted, he's not a household name, which is why he ends up as a sleeper. DeShaun Watson, Wayne Gallman and Artavis Scott had more attention last year, but Peake has a chance to be really good at the NFL level. He has the physical tools you look for in a number 1 WR. He's tall (6'2"), fast (4.37 40-yd dash), and has a huge wingspan, which will increase his catch radius. He does have some injury red flags, and needs to work on his awareness vs. zone defenses and catching the ball more consistently (5 drops last year), but his upside is huge. He'll likely be drafted before the end of the 3rd round of the NFL draft, and shouldn't make it past the 3rd round in your rookie draft either.
2. Tajae Sharpe, UMass: Sharpe is the most productive receiver in UMass history, and he's gotten there with exceptional route running and great hands in a pass-happy offense. He needs to fill out his frame more to really fulfill his potential, but he's still just 21 and has experience playing both outside and in the slot. I think his ceiling is a rich man's Jerricho Cotchery. While that doesn't sound that exciting, you can likely have him for a 4th round rookie pick or later.
3. Daniel Braverman, WMU: You can make accusations that Braverman is a bit of a homer pick, since I attended school at Western Michigan myself, but his game projects very well to the next level. He has shredded MAC competition over the past 2 years, and actually put up lines of 13-109 and 10-123-1 against Michigan State and Ohio State, respectively in 2015. He's proven that he can get open and produce against top competition at the college level. He's definitely undersized, and he's more quick than fast, but the potential is there for Braverman to be a PPR stud down the road. I'm sure you'll hear comparisons to Cole Beasley, but Braverman will be better than Cole. If he's still available in the 5th round, do yourself a favor and scoop him up, especially if you're in a PPR format.
Overhyped Sleepers:
1. Leonte Carroo, Rutgers: Carroo has decent NFL size and has shown a penchant for catching the deep ball, averaging over 20 yards per catch over the past 2 seasons with 20 TDs. He's also had off the field issues that cost him 2 games last year and he's slower than you would expect for a guy with his deep ball numbers. Rutgers' play-action passing game likely helped open him up deep, and I think he's going to struggle to duplicate those results against NFL corners. While I've seen some experts pushing Carroo as a top-5 WR, I think he ultimately ends up as a bust. He was kind of a one-trick pony in college whose one trick isn't going to play as well in the NFL. I'd avoid him unless he slips to the late 3rd round of your rookie draft.
2. Will Fuller, ND: Some NFL team is going to fall in love with Fuller's 4.32 40 time and overdraft him by a bunch. Several mock drafts I've seen show him going in the first round. If that happens, the team that picks him will likely be disappointed. Fuller is a deep ball specialist, with 27% of his catches last year gaining 25+ yards, but there is plenty to not like. He has a slight frame and zero savvy on short underneath routes, meaning he won't do much damage over the middle of the field. He also has struggled with drops, tallying 9 of them in each of the past 2 seasons. Fuller's athlticism is outstanding, but he has so much work to do on the nuance and technique of the position that I don't ever see him becoming more than a deep threat. His skillset should bring memories of Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ted Ginn Jr., Troy Williamson and Cordarrelle Patterson...hardly elite company. Draft in the first round at your own risk.
3. Tyler Boyd, Pitt: Boyd was extremely productive in his 3 years at Pitt. He caught at least 78 passes in each of his 3 seasons there and topped 1,000 receiving yards in 2 of them. He also showed some wheels with his 4.5 40-yard dash time on Pitt's pro day, but he doesn't show that same speed on film. His short-area quickness is really lacking, and he has to get by on route running technique and good hands. In 2015, he averaged about 10 yards per catch on 91 catches, which is an awful average for an elite college WR. The only good NFL receivers who have gotten by with poor ypc numbers are Jarvis Landry and Keenan Allen, and I don't think Boyd is nearly as good as them. He's struggled to get separation against college DBs, and that will only get worse at the NFL level. I'd avoid Tyler at the range he's likely to be drafted.
The tight end position is the least exciting position in terms of the rookie draft. Very rarely does a rookie tight end make a big impact on the fantasy landscape, often taking until year 2 or 3 to break out. That doesn't mean you can or should wait until they are 2 years into their career to think about drafting them. Jordan Reed showed flashes of the player he would become as a rookie. So did Rob Gronkowski. Julius Thomas seemingly came out of nowhere when he broke out with Denver, but saavy owners were already on him. While the value of tight ends in rookie drafts is substantially lower than the three positions above, that isn't a reason to ignore them altogether. Here's a look at this year's names to watch:
Top Three:
1. Hunter Henry, Arkansas: Henry is the clear top TE in this year's class. In most rookie drafts, he should be off the board in the late 2nd round or early 3rd, and he's an extremely well-rounded prospect. He's an excellent run blocker, and he didn't have a single drop last year while catching 51 passes. His game compares a bit to Jason Witten, who has been as steady as they come over the past decade. Like most rookie TEs, don't draft him expecting to be able to start him this year, but he should develop into a really good NFL starter.
2. Austin Hooper, Stanford: Hooper probably gets a little bit more credit than he deserves due to the recent track record of Stanford TEs in the NFL (Zach Ertz & Coby Fleener). He's got good size and good hands, but he'll struggle to get separation against NFL defenses. He's shown more as a receiver than the next entry on this list, but Hooper still projects to be more Brent Celek than Zach Ertz or Fleener.
3. Nick Vannett, OSU: Vannett has the requisite size and athleticism to be a good NFL tight end, but he has to develop the demeanor to play more physical. He was under-utilized at OSU, but he could be a red zone monster if he embraces his size.
My Sleepers:
1. Thomas Duarte, UCLA: There is a question as to whether or not Duarte is big enough to play tight end in the NFL, but he certainly has the passing game skill to be a tough matchup. His skillset and measurables are reminiscent of Jordan Reed, who was kind of a question mark coming into the league before breaking out with Washington. Duarte will struggle if asked to block regularly, but you're not drafting fantasy TEs for their blocking prowess. He could be a bust due to his lack of size, but Duarte's upside is real if he lands in the right place.
2. Rico Gathers, Baylor: The transition likely won't be an easy one for Gathers, as he is coming to the NFL from the Baylor basketball team, but there has been a long track record of basketball players making good NFL tight ends. Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, and Julius Thomas all played college basketball. Gathers is enormous, at 6'7" and nearly 280 pounds, but he is a good athlete and has soft hands. He won't make an immediate impact, but there is a really high ceiling for Baylor's former power forward.
Overhyped Sleepers:
1. Tyler Higbee, W. Kentucky: Higbee has been a popular name this offseason. He's a former wide receiver with great size at 6'6", 249, but he needs to improve as a blocker and character red flags popped up recently as he was arrested for assault just 18 days before the draft, and the details don't sound good. The victim suffered a brain hemmorhage, and Higbee changed his story to police multiple times. Initially he said the victim got into his and his girlfriend's personal space. He then said the victim called some friends to come fight Higbee, but the call was in a foreign language. When police asked how he knew that's what the victim was saying, Higbee said he "just knew." Once he was at the jail, Tyler completely reversed course and said the guy never tried to fight him, that he was just in their personal space, so he hit him. Again...this happened about two and a half weeks ago. I'd be surprised if Higbee is drafted before late in the 3rd day, and this seems like the kind of thing that may come up again. There is physical talent here, but he's not worth more than an end-of-the-draft flyer.
2. Jerell Adams, S. Carolina: I've seen Adams ranked as a top-5 tight end in a lot of rankings this offseason, but he's got a lot of work to do to live up to that. He has some speed for the position, but it's more straight-line speed than athleticism. He's also got below-average hands and isn't a great route runner. NFL teams may like him, but that's not a reason for you to draft him in fantasy.
That's all I've got for this Rookie Report Special. As I mentioned at the opening, where these guys end up will have a huge impact on their fantasy outlook, but it's always important to have an idea of who these guys are going in. Just because a guy goes in the first round or lands in a spot with immediate playing time doesn't mean he'll be an automatic stud. Just ask dynasty owners who drafted Trent Richardson as a rookie. I'll be back a little closer to the season with a 2016 rookie preview. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you want to yell at me about the above rankings (@shawn_foss) and thanks for reading. If you're in Chicago, do yourself a favor and get to the draft in person. You may run into me there. The Rams are on the clock...